Hi Dwileye13, Ericth and Guys;
I must point out my previous estimate of how many winter uniforms were being used was high because I thought there were two dragoon brigades, so BGV has something much closer to 30,000 than 40,000 men advancing to the Northland Gap about 200 miles by road from Allyntyn.
Wyrshym sent Gorthyk Nybar with 2 other divisions fully made up, to take command of those in the gap and be ready to march to reinforce Allyntyn's garrison of 4,000 back in mid-September, on short notice, which didn't happen, and BGV had no problem taking Allyntyn in early October.
I don't think many AoG troops survived if they had to flee 200 miles to the gap in an unorganized fashion at that time of year in that fall-winter weather.
Estimates of Wyrshym's army vary between less than 35,000 for his field force according BGV in early October [chapter 3; his 23K are 2/3's of Wyrshym's], to Wyrshym's own estimate of ~65,000 if I remember right in still early October [chapter 6], which doesn't necessarily conflict with BGV's, the difference being between field army and the total of the whole army of the Sylman.
The 65,000 man figure includes those Northland Gap troops with their forward positions, spread along the approximate ~83 miles long NG.
If there were 3 AoG divisions there before Gorthyk's reinforcement [with artillery and cavalry] arrived could mean a total of almost 12,000 infantry alone; possibly a third of Wyrshym's effective army by BGV's estimate, perhaps 1/6-1/5 by Wyrshym's, a sizable force regardless, but one BGV outnumbers at least 2-1 if not 5-2.
However the AoG has to patrol or watch those 83+ miles, requiring at least a dozen camps ~7 miles apart of just around 1000 infantry [2 regiments], plus probably a cavalry company or two and 2-4 12 pounders etc.
Besides being well out of earshot of any battle, they will need platforms around 33 feet high to see their neighboring camps, and obviously way out out mutual support range.
You could split that in half for just one infantry regiment each, etc, for around 580-650 men each every 31/2 miles, with a platform only 10 feet high, to see its neighbors, but still out of earshot of battle before considering the weather, as well as mutual support.
The major point of both sizes is they're still too small, easily overwhelmed by a fraction of BGV's forces.
I've suggested in the past of going north to hook behind the camp line from any unexpected direction, but if marching 25 miles per day is the average [only 2.5 mph for 10 hours, the other 2&1/2 hours being for meals and setting up and taking down camp], they should close on the southern camps in just 8 days.
I'm torn between having the dragoons taking the northern camps and simply heading further west on the high road to take out the supply convoys [one every day seems too many for Wyrshym, one every 5day seems more likely] roughly 90 tons of food plus fuel and fodder or 8-10 more lightly loaded wagons, and cutting the semaphore chain.
Wyrshym will then know something is wrong {the scout snipers could delay and confuse things for a few days], but not how bad, and still not able to do anything about it.
If half the rest of his army is holding the northern shore of Lake Wyvern, his forces are again too far apart for mutual support and he can be easily destroyed in detail.
Indeed the dragoon brigade could overwhelm a number of possible similar camps by it self as it advanced along the high road, if the infantry division were left to destroy the Northland Gap camps by itself, then catching up, possibly having the southern brigade follow sooner than the northern.
St. Zhana is a couple hundred more miles along the high road, for another 8 days, so we might be looking at early April by then.
Crossing the Ice Ash river up stream of the high road could be pretty easy for BGV thanks to the SNARC's, if anyone attempted to hold or destroy the bridge, at a ford with the ice possibly stronger.
Ohlarhn is another ~437 miles beyond St Zhana, or around 18 days, about the same distance from Guarnak, but the High Hallows ought to give the edge to the dragoons getting there first, if Wyrshym concentrates and drags what's left of his army there, though if he did he should expect to lose around half of it along the way given how poorly equipped for winter they are.
Pulling away from Lake Wyvern opens all sorts of opportunities for BGV's other forces there to advance and trap Wyrshym between them.
OTOH, holing up in Guarnak doesn't buy Wyrshym much either.
The MHoGatA is 2000 miles and 50 days from Lake City, which is at least another 1400 from Guarnak by river and canal for another 35 days, so the earliest it could reach Guarnak, assuming all the canal locks had been repaired enough ahead of time, is around mid-June if they started now, which is extremely unlikely.
I have posited before that either EHM or DE could go north to help Symkyn deal with the sub Harchong army coming directly east to the Charayn Canal and Daivyn river after he destroys Kaitswyrth soon.
Then Symkyn could could go north to flank the Harchong army group north and cut its supplies after it was far enough away east from Lake City while EHM or DE headed west or south west to Dairnyth.
Feel free to disagree.
L
dwileye13 wrote:ericth wrote:
"e="BGV"*
'if we're really lucky and the weather holds' we might actually reach Guarnak before the spring thaw turns everything to mud on us'
*quote*
We have two quotes from BGV that appear to be at odds. He talks about reaching Guarnak and also about slamming the door shut behind Wyrshym. One way to harmonize that would be to slam the door shut in the vicinity of of Guarnak but not necessarily reducing the city itself. Another would be that plans change. I dont think BGV has the troops to split his force so they are likely to remain concentrated.
SNIP
With respect to where the fighting takes place, I'd like to see what the barflies think on where would be the best places to prepare for the Mighty Host of God and the Archangels. That's assuming that facing the Host will be primarily defensive, at least at first. That's actually one reason I dont think "slam the back door shut" means Cat Lizard Lake. It's a very long supply line and closer to the Might Host.
IMHO - BGV has it just right. He will shut the door on AoS by just coming in from the north, probably following the canals since they have nice roads on the sides and if there is any waterin them then there will be ice for his sleds.
Wyrshym has very fewe options. He can't retreat because he hasn't the equipment to support a retreat and/or he will have to meet the Inquisition for doing that. If he sends his Guarnak forces out to meet BGV, those force will not be prepared for open country operations in Winter. If he pulls forces from the Sylman Gap he uncorks the ICA sitting there and allows them to advance from a second position of strength.
If he tries to just hold Guarnak he is done by attrition and starvation.
In addition when the Harchong contingent advances BGV needs to have defensable positions and allow them to stretch their supply chain across 2,000 miles. There are few reasons to try to advance very far. Protecting the access to Eastern Siddermark and Glacierheart is the key, Northland Gap and Sylman Gap are the places in need of a cork.
