HFQ Official Snippet #9

runsforcelery wrote:[massive snipping on both sides]
You know, I don't show you all of the assassination plots that are foiled, so perhaps you're assuming that vast numbers of them are getting through, but they aren't.

It would be kinda cool to see Merlin, Nimue, and his Late Highness discussing patterns in the failed attempts. Since keeping the Imperial Royal Family alive is a big part of their job and they're presumably interested in the ways in which attempts are made.

Rayno and co. discussing what they know about the failures would be more under the heading of "sadistic fun", but also of potential interest.

runsforcelery wrote:SNIP
As for the crew of the ship's failing to blow themselves up or otherwise commit mass suicide to avoid capture, not everyone who's prepared to destroy his ship succeeds. I didn't see any reason to go into all of the ramifications about how this particular ship — whose capture occurs offstage — might have fallen into that category. For that matter, not everyone aboard might have agreed that the ship needed to be destroyed. History is replete with examples of people who "should have known better" surrendering or allowing themselves to be captured even when all of their personal experience and knowledge suggests that they are only going to be killed out of hand, anyway. I'll admit that knowing about the Punishment of Schueler ups the ante all around, but there are plenty of people who will trade the possibility (or even high probability) of an eventual lingering death for the certainty of dying immediately. I'd like to think that wouldn't be a trade I'd make under the circumstances, but more than enough people have made it over the course of human history for me, personally, to have no problem with the fact that someone aboard this ship might have made that decision.

Yup - I hadn't considered that aspect of human nature. thanks for sorting that out!

Now hold on! That's patently unfair to Cap'n Bob.

It was the Admiral who was gassing on about the obvious to him (or in some Blackadder-verse her).

runsforcelery wrote:[snip]
Edited to [snip] gas on a bit more about Bob and his stupid explanations.

First, thanks for the lengthy explanation.

runsforcelery wrote:Actually, no, you haven't. Mind you, it's happened before, and I've owned up to it more often than not when it happens. In this case, though, I never said that the inner circle wasn't aware of the Desnairian commerce-raiders, or of the change in strategy to promote them. What I said was that the concentration against this particular convoy came as a surprise — a tactical surprise, not a strategic one.

SNIP

Now, the inner circle knew about the buildup of Desnairian Empire commerce-raiders, and the ICN's convoy commanders were briefed on the fact that "sources" suggested there was going to be an upsurge in commerce-raider activity. However, these folks don't have radio. So, when the inner circle became aware of the fact that this particular convoy was in danger of being swarmed in a mass attack — which even Owl didn't become aware of until just before they sailed* — there was no plausible/reasonable/explainable way for Rock Point or anyone else to warn the convoy commander of what might be coming.

That's what I didn't get from Rock Point's musings in those snippets. With all that surveillance possibilities it's hard to image that he couldn't have taken sufficient precautions for an - for my understanding - important convoy. If it was such a tactical surprise to the Charisians, your hands are clean.

runsforcelery wrote:There are going to be times when fortune favors the Bad Guys™, and this was one of them. I didn't have to "throw the game" to allow it to happen; there are internal factors which have been built into the stories from the beginning (and most of which have played parts in the action of the stories) which make it perfectly feasible for the Desnairians to have pulled off this attack.

I agree that as an author you need these factors simply to tell an interesting story. For me as a reader it's sometimes hard to appreciate the limitations of 24th century technology, though.

runsforcelery wrote:Now, if I choose to — and I haven't said that I do — I can certainly arrange for the prize vessel in question to "mysteriously blow up" at sea before reaching Desnair.

O.K. Another thing I didn't get. So, at the moment of Rock Point's musings, the prize vessels haven't yet reached Desnair.
Actually, instead of spontaneous self-combustions a la Sarkyn, I'd thought of something else. There should be quite a number of ICN vessels on routine duty between the route of the convoy and the way back to Desnair (assuming the prize vessels go there, which you haven't stated yet). Since those prize vessels are possibly damaged, there's a chance of some of them (and their escorts) running into those ICN ships.

runsforcelery wrote:As for the crew of the ship's failing to blow themselves up or otherwise commit mass suicide to avoid capture, not everyone who's prepared to destroy his ship succeeds. I didn't see any reason to go into all of the ramifications about how this particular ship — whose capture occurs offstage — might have fallen into that category.

And I understood from snippet 8 that it was 6 ships. This ups the ante with regard to sinking your boat, especially in a society with practiced euthanasia (Paquale's grace) and in light of the Alyksberg explosion. If most of the weapons are actually only on one ship, this makes more sense. But I'd not actually considered a mass suicide. I'd wondered about sinking the cargo vessel at an appropriate moment and then hoping to be picked up by other ships of the convoy because the Desnairians are not interested in hunting down drowning sailors on drifting wreckage or small boats. With the duration of those chases (prior to boarding) that could be a possibility... In conclusion, only one major cargo ship needs to make her way back to Desnair, in the end. Interesting times...

runsforcelery wrote:As for the gunpowder in the assassination attempt against Irys and Hektor. So you're suggesting that Owl has enough SNARCs and remotes to put one on every single individual in a crowd of thousands to "sniff out" the chemical signature of black powder?

Actually no. Your description indicates tight (conventional) security with access controls, which need to be at predefined points. Put appropriate 24th century sensors in those places, and a comparatively large quantity of black powder should be detectable (worked in Tellesberg, admittedly with a much larger quantity). Staynair was on the scene and could have arranged for the Duke and Duchess of Darcos to be safe. I'm aware that this pet theory can be easily shot down , which is why I said that I don't complain. You as an author needed that story element, and accommodated accordingly. Also note that within the context of Star Trek, "tetrion field interference" can be a valid explanation - although overused by the writers.

runsforcelery wrote:I suppose I could have had Nahrmahn and Owl lecture the other members of the inner circle on what the actual limitations were, but it really wouldn't have contributed anything to the movement of the plot and it would have been one of those "As you know, Bob" moments that I, personally, hate. (snip)
But that's just me.

(And, BTW, one reason I do the infamous "info dumps" is that --- as a reader --- I prefer for the author to do that rather than twist his narrative and dialogue into a pretzel with "As you know, Bob" moments.
(snip)
Neither the assassination attempt nor the convoy losses really lent themselves to that approach, however.)

As I say, I have been caught "red-handed" in this sort of logic hole you're talking about in your post, but these two instances aren't really examples of it. I try — probably harder than the majority of authors — not to give my readers "pay no attention to the man behind the screen" moments.

I happen to agree on your points regarding info-dump. With regard to the inner consistency: With the background you couldn't have provided in the book, it's well understandble. The text, as it is, was a bit confusing - for me.

Ok so the author has stated it won't use the Snarcs to assasinate individuals. incovinent burn marks found inside the ear canal being a prime motivator.

However,

We have now seen the results of what would happen if a ammunition barge is blown up(LAMA, not enemy action but the church responded as if it was). And just in this thread we have MWW aka RFC aka the Author indicate that he might just blow the prizes up, or at least he could if he or to be more precise the inner circle felt like it.(paraphrased)

Which has now got me thinking about the use of SNARCS to affect immediate tactical or strategic pressure by destroying Ships, Manufactoring sites, Ammo dumps or fortress Magazines. Possibly just prior to something like Barron Green Valleys winter assault. Or perhaps a Desnarian Fleet or for that matter any commerce raider could misterously disapear in a storm.

I actually really like an active raider busting approach. Particularly if that raider is in a storm.... then BOOM(SNARC remote generates an spark) there goes the magazine. No witnesses and, no cost, just dead raiders, believed lost at sea due to bad weather. Perhaps a huge strain can be taken off the fleet, without the fleet even knowing it.

To: Honourable Sir Dahvydd Wybyr, The Royal and Imperial Historian of Safehold
Greetings

runsforcelery wrote:I'm sorry you feel the ICN is run by idiots. Of course, you have the advantage of a little insight no one on Safehold has, don't you?

Just so I'm not misunderstood, in case my words seemed to imply things which I most certainly didn't even think, much less wanted to say...

One of reasons I read your books (a lot) is that you do try to do a proper job of making it plausible. So, unlike in the case of writers who don't even care and their stories have so many holes there's no point in discussing them... for your worlds (and that's what they are, much more than mere stories) we, as readers, do care.

And so I poke holes in the story - or try to - because you did make it a real world, at least in our minds, and I do care about the future of Safehold

runsforcelery wrote:The Inner Circle was aware that the threat of commerce-raiders was growing, but the ICN's convoy tactics had been fully adequate over the last several years. You do not go around planting explosives aboard your own vessels "just in case" under those circumstances, nor do you ask your personnel to blow themselves up to prevent capture. They may choose to blow themselves up if something catastrophic happens, but that's rather a different proposition.

Eh, I was re-reading Honorverse while waiting for HFQ or at least for more snippets, and... there were the scuttling charges.
So when I saw this snippet, my first thought was about them.

runsforcelery wrote:Why should they? Aside from denying the enemy the opportunity to experiment with a few thousand rifles, what would they accomplish? And what good will it do the other side to experiment with them in the dozen weeks or so they have before they get real, hands-on field experience with that those rifles can do?

Oooh, now that's some significant info
(no, not sarcastic in any way. now we have a peek into the future... snippet #50 or so )
A dozen weeks or so from the snippet #9 to when M96 are used for the first time

And yes, you're right. In that time frame, no chance in hell that the Temple can (re)produce them.
Or even formulate a tactic to defend against them. Especially with how the Inquisition has been hiding info from their own people (high-angle guns come to mind)

runsforcelery wrote:Will it be a bad thing if people like the Dohlarans (or even the Desnarians) who are already worried that ths jihad may be lost get direct, personal, hands-on confirmation that it is . . . and why? No, it won't. I'm not suggesting that the Charisians deliberately set out to hand those rifles over to the enemy. I'm simply pointing out that the "Ohmigod! What a catastrophe! thinking I seem to be seeing out of some people may be just a tad . . . excessive.

True, although (for that same reason) the Inquisition will try to control access to that info.

runsforcelery wrote: to the front for mass use against the enemy in the field, where examples are bound to be captured anyway.

True, and I didn't even think about that.

runsforcelery wrote:As for the vulnerability of the convoy, see my first paragraph above. The attack came as a complete surprise to the convoy commander, and the strength of the attack came as a surprise to the inner circle, and no navy has enough warships lying around to go assigning double or triple overkill to counter threats that are outside their intelligence appreciations.

Ok, but I have to ask this:
This was a convoy from Tellesberg to Siddar City.

Now, that seems to me to be rather far away from Desnair, and the route isn't clear and simple either.
It implies that Desnairians sent a... if not quite a fleet, practically a small task force,

runsforcelery wrote: half of them navy ships, not just privateers

and in sufficient numbers to swarm a ICN convoy with an escort, all the way from Desnair to...where?

The convoy was going from Tellesberg through Howell Bay and Charis Sea (the only way, up to that point).
Now, if going to Siddar City, they probably didn't turn into the Darcos Sound (granted, I'm not an expert in weather patterns on Safehold).
So, the route from there is probably Emerald Reach --> The Anvil --> Markovian Sea --> Siddar City.

Where could the Desnairian raiding task force pass without being noticed?
Sea of Justice through the Tarot Channel and the Gulf of Tarot? With Tarot already being a part of the Charisian Empire?
Ok, the Tarot channel is probably much wider in real-life than on the map, so maybe... but they'd have to do it without being noticed by any ICN ships, and we're not talking about a single Desnairian schooner.

On the other side, I most definitely do not know much about sailing, so, it's possible... but it would mean Desnairian privateers got more courage than I gave them credit for.

Maybe the money they can get for such prizes makes them take insane chances? (And, after all, it's not like Charisians will put them to Question and Punishment if they're caught).
The prize money for the cargo described here, in an empire with gold mines yet too low tech base to produce such weapons, should be huge.

Indeed, now when I think about it, it would have been enough for ICN to post a couple squadrons of warships to plug the southern end of the Tarot Channel, and the whole route after that would have been safe.

Am I right? No need to even escort ships, just stop privateers from entering from that side, use the Tarot Channel as a chokepoint.
Then you can have a thousand convoys on the Tellesberg - Siddar City route.

A Desnairian raiding force would have to go past that ICN task force undetected, find a convoy, defeat the escorts, and then return with the prizes, again through the Tarot Channel choke point, undetected.

Considering that Desnairians don't have naval traditions and experience like Charisians, how likely is that?

Or did they come around the globe?
All the way along the south end of Howard, through the Great Western Ocean, then somewhere in between Charis and Chisholm, Zebediah and Chisholm, Emerald and Chisholm, and to the Anvil - then with prizes all the way back?
Without being intercepted by ICN either on the way in or on the way out?

EDIT: Ok, there is still the Tranjyr passage.
But a Desnairian raider task force going intentionally through it?
And the same logic applies - it would take ICN far less ships to block that and the Tarot Channel, than to arrange escorts for every convoy.

And in this way they could have a serious blocking force (indeed, were they not blocking Tarot for something like a couple years? I believe vicar Zhaspar had some... colorful words to describe it) in place, larger than any single convoy escort could be, and likely sufficient to deal with a raider task force.

Aethor wrote:Indeed, now when I think about it, it would have been enough for ICN to post a couple squadrons of warships to plug the southern end of the Tarot Channel, and the whole route after that would have been safe.

Am I right? No need to even escort ships, just stop privateers from entering from that side, use the Tarot Channel as a chokepoint.
Then you can have a thousand convoys on the Tellesberg - Siddar City route.

A Desnairian raiding force would have to go past that ICN task force undetected, find a convoy, defeat the escorts, and then return with the prizes, again through the Tarot Channel choke point, undetected.

Considering that Desnairians don't have naval traditions and experience like Charisians, how likely is that?

Or did they come around the globe?
All the way along the south end of Howard, through the Great Western Ocean, then somewhere in between Charis and Chisholm, Zebediah and Chisholm, Emerald and Chisholm, and to the Anvil - then with prizes all the way back?
Without being intercepted by ICN either on the way in or on the way out?

EDIT: Ok, there is still the Tranjyr passage.
But a Desnairian raider task force going intentionally through it?
And the same logic applies - it would take ICN far less ships to block that and the Tarot Channel, than to arrange escorts for every convoy.

And in this way they could have a serious blocking force (indeed, were they not blocking Tarot for something like a couple years? I believe vicar Zhaspar had some... colorful words to describe it) in place, larger than any single convoy escort could be, and likely sufficient to deal with a raider task force.

Okay, the Tarot Channel is 300-plus miles wide at the narrowest point. Assume a visual horizon of 20 miles. That means you'd need fifteen ships abreast to cover its width, assuming they could keep perfect station on one another, it never got dark, and there was never any fog or rain. Oh, and you'd have to have multiple lines of pickets to pick up anything that got past the first one. And your pickets would have to be fast enough to catch each individual raider they intercepted without making holes in the picket line other raider might sneak through. And ---

Start to get the picture here?

The truth is that blockade as a strategy usually uses up more ships than convoy escort does and proves less effective at eliminating raiders, to boot. The beauty of convoy is that the convoys act as bait. They attract the raiders to the warships witho9ut the warships blundering about the vast wastelands of the ocean looking for them. Moreover, a convoy of 100 ships offers about 1% the target offered by 100 ships sailing individually. A given raider will have basically one chance to spot each ship --- or convoy --- passing through its area of operations. That means it has 100 chances to spot the ships sailing solo but only 1 chance to spot the convoy. And if it does spot the convoy, the escort's strength is concentrated in a way that should prevent serious damage and provide an excellent chance of whittling down the raiders unless the bad guys luck out and swarm a single convoy. And, in many ways, even taking heavy damage to the occasional convoy favors the defenders, assuming that it does require the bad guys to mass their forces. Packing enough punch to take out a typical convoy's escorts into a single raiding squadron hugely reduces the amount of water which could be covered by the same number of raiders sailing individually lookin for the unescorted ships.


Second, the convoy sailed from Tellesberg (well, Ithmyn), then to Emerald, where it picked up certain portions of its cargo which are being manufactured around Eraystor Bay (you may or may not find out what those portions were in the fullness of time) and linked up with troop ships coming from Chisholm. The Chisholm contingent joined the convoy and the ships which had escorted the troop ships as far as Emerald picked up a gaggle of ships headed to Chisholm and escorted them back the way they'd come.

From Eraystor to Siddar City is roughly 7,000 miles; from Geyra in Desnair to Siddar City is only 7,100 miles by way of the Tarot Channel. Ergo, it's entirely possible for commerce-raiders to sail from Desnarian coastal waters, penetrate the Tarot Channel (see my above paragraph) and intercept the convoy. Getting the prizes home (since the prize ships are going to be slower and less maneuverable than the raiders) may be rather more difficult, but it certainly isn't impossible. It would obviously be better for the privateers if they could find some "neutral" port in which to dispose of their prizes, as the Charisians were doing in South Harchong before Jihad was formally declared, but beggars can't be choosers.

One thing folks have to bear in mind is that radar and aerial and satellite reconnaissance has rather spoiled us. These people (aside from the inner circle) have none of those advantages. The only sensor they have is the Mark One Eyeball, and that makes interceptions a lot harder to pull off. That's one of the reasons --- as I mentioned earlier --- the inner circle had no way of predicting that the raiders were going to run into a troop convoy when, in fact, the odds were heavily in favor of they're not running into it.

As far as blockading Tarot is concerned, yes, the ICN did just that. However, the blockade --- deliberately --- leaked like a sieve for smuggling purposes. What they were really doing was blockading Gorjah's naval units, and that's a lot easier to do as long as you know where they're ported and you can find a fairly convenient bad weather base/water source to support your blockaders. If the Tarotisian Navy had ever managed to evade the blockade and get to sea, however, finding it again would have been a nontrivial task. I invite your attention to Nelson's pursuit of Villeneuve prior to Trafalgar. Privateers are a lot harder to blockade. They're smaller, faster, harder to spot, and completely capable of sailing in singletons rather than squadrons and still proving strategically effective.

Thank you very insightful.

I believe John Sugden in his Sword of Albion on the second half of Lord Nelson's career covers Nelson pursuit of Villeneuve leading to Trafalgar that you mentioned.

runsforcelery wrote:

Aethor wrote:Indeed, now when I think about it, it would have been enough for ICN to post a couple squadrons of warships to plug the southern end of the Tarot Channel, and the whole route after that would have been safe.

Am I right? No need to even escort ships, just stop privateers from entering from that side, use the Tarot Channel as a chokepoint.
Then you can have a thousand convoys on the Tellesberg - Siddar City route.

A Desnairian raiding force would have to go past that ICN task force undetected, find a convoy, defeat the escorts, and then return with the prizes, again through the Tarot Channel choke point, undetected.

Considering that Desnairians don't have naval traditions and experience like Charisians, how likely is that?

Or did they come around the globe?
All the way along the south end of Howard, through the Great Western Ocean, then somewhere in between Charis and Chisholm, Zebediah and Chisholm, Emerald and Chisholm, and to the Anvil - then with prizes all the way back?
Without being intercepted by ICN either on the way in or on the way out?

EDIT: Ok, there is still the Tranjyr passage.
But a Desnairian raider task force going intentionally through it?
And the same logic applies - it would take ICN far less ships to block that and the Tarot Channel, than to arrange escorts for every convoy.

And in this way they could have a serious blocking force (indeed, were they not blocking Tarot for something like a couple years? I believe vicar Zhaspar had some... colorful words to describe it) in place, larger than any single convoy escort could be, and likely sufficient to deal with a raider task force.

Okay, the Tarot Channel is 300-plus miles wide at the narrowest point. Assume a visual horizon of 20 miles. That means you'd need fifteen ships abreast to cover its width, assuming they could keep perfect station on one another, it never got dark, and there was never any fog or rain. Oh, and you'd have to have multiple lines of pickets to pick up anything that got past the first one. And your pickets would have to be fast enough to catch each individual raider they intercepted without making holes in the picket line other raider might sneak through. And ---

Start to get the picture here?

The truth is that blockade as a strategy usually uses up more ships than convoy escort does and proves less effective at eliminating raiders, to boot. The beauty of convoy is that the convoys act as bait. They attract the raiders to the warships witho9ut the warships blundering about the vast wastelands of the ocean looking for them. Moreover, a convoy of 100 ships offers about 1% the target offered by 100 ships sailing individually. A given raider will have basically one chance to spot each ship --- or convoy --- passing through its area of operations. That means it has 100 chances to spot the ships sailing solo but only 1 chance to spot the convoy. And if it does spot the convoy, the escort's strength is concentrated in a way that should prevent serious damage and provide an excellent chance of whittling down the raiders unless the bad guys luck out and swarm a single convoy. And, in many ways, even taking heavy damage to the occasional convoy favors the defenders, assuming that it does require the bad guys to mass their forces. Packing enough punch to take out a typical convoy's escorts into a single raiding squadron hugely reduces the amount of water which could be covered by the same number of raiders sailing individually lookin for the unescorted ships.


Second, the convoy sailed from Tellesberg (well, Ithmyn), then to Emerald, where it picked up certain portions of its cargo which are being manufactured around Eraystor Bay (you may or may not find out what those portions were in the fullness of time) and linked up with troop ships coming from Chisholm. The Chisholm contingent joined the convoy and the ships which had escorted the troop ships as far as Emerald picked up a gaggle of ships headed to Chisholm and escorted them back the way they'd come.

From Eraystor to Siddar City is roughly 7,000 miles; from Geyra in Desnair to Siddar City is only 7,100 miles by way of the Tarot Channel. Ergo, it's entirely possible for commerce-raiders to sail from Desnarian coastal waters, penetrate the Tarot Channel (see my above paragraph) and intercept the convoy. Getting the prizes home (since the prize ships are going to be slower and less maneuverable than the raiders) may be rather more difficult, but it certainly isn't impossible. It would obviously be better for the privateers if they could find some "neutral" port in which to dispose of their prizes, as the Charisians were doing in South Harchong before Jihad was formally declared, but beggars can't be choosers.

One thing folks have to bear in mind is that radar and aerial and satellite reconnaissance has rather spoiled us. These people (aside from the inner circle) have none of those advantages. The only sensor they have is the Mark One Eyeball, and that makes interceptions a lot harder to pull off. That's one of the reasons --- as I mentioned earlier --- the inner circle had no way of predicting that the raiders were going to run into a troop convoy when, in fact, the odds were heavily in favor of they're not running into it.

As far as blockading Tarot is concerned, yes, the ICN did just that. However, the blockade --- deliberately --- leaked like a sieve for smuggling purposes. What they were really doing was blockading Gorjah's naval units, and that's a lot easier to do as long as you know where they're ported and you can find a fairly convenient bad weather base/water source to support your blockaders. If the Tarotisian Navy had ever managed to evade the blockade and get to sea, however, finding it again would have been a nontrivial task. I invite your attention to Nelson's pursuit of Villeneuve prior to Trafalgar. Privateers are a lot harder to blockade. They're smaller, faster, harder to spot, and completely capable of sailing in singletons rather than squadrons and still proving strategically effective.

Hi Aethor,

Regarding the news that first combat use of M96's will be 12 weeks from the convoy battle, that is indeed a very interesting revelation.

12 weeks, assuming that's not an approximate figure [we're talking 'honest' RFC here, who won't misdirect us ] can mean 12 5days on Safehold, or 12 T-weeks or 84 days.

Just getting the captured ships home could take at least a month, but at 40-50 MPD via canals and rivers, it would take another 50-60 days to get to the Gulf of Hankey, a 5day or two to get to GC or the Sabana River then another couple months via the river-canals and Lake Pei to reach Zion, the temple and St. Kylman's foundry, or half that if they are made Duchairn 'specials'.

The first [12 5days] could mean somewhere between the middle to near the end of May, depending on how many more sections there are in March, because it could still be just the middle of the month; while the latter [~84 days] could be well after the middle of June.

By my figures enough could have been made at Delthak and Lake Lyman to reequip a ~70,000 man army [only 53,000 M-96's needed] by April-May before almost 10% were lost before getting into shipping times, ie about a month required from Delthak, since its almost a thousand miles closer than Tellesberg.

Depending on which army is being reequipped first, delivery time via river and canal then loom large if steam towing still isn't an option, so the nearest army could be the September force probably near Silkiah but possibly Thesmar, ie on or very near the coast.

The next would be EHM and or DE, depending if both headed west towards Dohlar instead of one going to the Daivyn, followed by Symkyn while BGV is committed and rearming questionable in such bad weather, though his winter campaign should have ended well before 12 5days or T-weeks has passed.

Hanth's small force of marines should get the trapdoor version very soon if they haven't already since they were making 200 conversions per day back in late October, so he could pass on his Mahndrayns to Somyrs or Fyguera to replace their arbalests etc.

If the M96's are not headed to the force aimed at Silkiah, which doesn't need it as much, I'd bet whoever is driving Rychtyr and Ahlverez back would get the goodies first, ie EHM or DE.

If the first battle with them happens just after Lt. Zhwaigair gets his hands on a few examples of those on their way to Zion in time to fully analyze them, the morale and psychological impact could be huge if Dohlar thought they were producing them much faster than they actually are.

Especially after the industrial accident.

That still leaves the mortars and 4" guns, presumably still muzzle loaders, the breech loaders being held back until the cordite and HE shells are ready.

At around 9 days between snippets we have another 41 or so before November 1, 2015; hopefully we should have a few more of these questions answered by then, plus a few hundred more bugging us.

L

Aethor wrote:To: Honourable Sir Dahvydd Wybyr, The Royal and Imperial Historian of Safehold
Greetings


SNIPPED 4 BREVITY Aren't you glad?

runsforcelery wrote:Why should they? Aside from denying the enemy the opportunity to experiment with a few thousand rifles, what would they accomplish? And what good will it do the other side to experiment with them in the dozen weeks or so they have before they get real, hands-on field experience with that those rifles can do?

Oooh, now that's some significant info
(no, not sarcastic in any way. now we have a peek into the future... snippet #50 or so )
A dozen weeks or so from the snippet #9 to when M96 are used for the first time

And yes, you're right. In that time frame, no chance in hell that the Temple can (re)produce them.
Or even formulate a tactic to defend against them. Especially with how the Inquisition has been hiding info from their own people (high-angle guns come to mind)

runsforcelery wrote:Will it be a bad thing if people like the Dohlarans (or even the Desnarians) who are already worried that ths jihad may be lost get direct, personal, hands-on confirmation that it is . . . and why? No, it won't. I'm not suggesting that the Charisians deliberately set out to hand those rifles over to the enemy. I'm simply pointing out that the "Ohmigod! What a catastrophe! thinking I seem to be seeing out of some people may be just a tad . . . excessive.