alj_sf wrote:the ratio of 12 for the hand tools only vs powered seems very low to me, although it could be ok for small industry. And one of the place where most of the gains will occur is assembly because tightening screws or riveting with air-driven tools is a matter of seconds versus minutes by hand. For reference, the average time for which an electric screwdriver pay for itself in the industry is 10 days ! A shock hydraulic one, maybe 3 months at most.
But for heavy industry, and there is not much heavier one than steel production/manufacturing and ship building, a lot of the productivity is tied to the handling of heavy parts. Powered hand tools allow to do on site heavier jobs that would normally need to push the part under a stationery machine. The handling times can be several time the machine ones where parts exceed around 100 lbs. Here I would except even bigger gains.
Add steam powered cranes, and it becomes huge.
First, perhaps I should've pointed out that — critics of the speed of industrialization in Charis notwithstanding — I've tried to be
conservative in the numbers I allow myself when I'm looking at productivity. In other words, while I have no intention of ever providing hard and fast production numbers in the books — for a plethora of reasons — I try to limit myself to a lower level of individual productivity than I believe would actually obtain as a way to restrain my own enthusiasms.
Secondly, note that I was speaking of an individual workman. There are synergistic effects that come together in the processes you're talking about. Each
individual's productivity does not increase on the same curve as the
manufactory's productivity as a whole. Once again, the sum is greater than the total of its parts. And, to perhaps add a bit more perspective, I wasn't talking about per-man-hour output of Charisian industry as a whole; I was talking about the per-man-hour output of an individual worker taken in isolation, if that makes sense.
Third, in my own thinking — and I think I made this point in my original post — that I was differentiating between workmen on the
manufactory floor and the workers in a foundry or a coal or iron mine. That was my intent, at any rate, and I apologize if it wasn't sufficiently clear. In other words, I'm not talking here directly about the production of iron or steel ingots, or even about rolling mills turning out face-hardened armor plate so much as I am talking about the individual workman on the production line putting pieces together, adjusting them to fit where necessary, et cetera.
So, what I'm basically saying here is that I agree with the points you've made above, but that you are addressing points I didn't intend to address when I gave my multiplier of 12, and that the underlying fundamental assumptions I've adopted for Charisian productivity — in all areas — are actually considerably more conservative than many people seem to be assuming.
Where someone like Dilandu is more likely to have a valid point in critiquing with Charis is doing is in the area of (1) the introduction of entirely new technologies as part of the development of heavy industry and (2) the rate at which physical plant can be built even if the builders have detailed blueprints. I've explained my reasons for the position I've taken in relation to (1) and of the extent to which the "new technologies" being introduced are piggybacked onto pre-existing capabilities. For (2) I admit to adopting rather more optimistic assumptions, but not, I think, ones which are totally unreasonable given the fact that the innovations are basically concentrated (for now) in the Delthak Works and are only now being disseminated to multiple locations. And the reasons (I think) that makes my assumptions reasonable are that Howsmyn has been "on the inside" from the very first book; King Haarahld backed him with the full power of the Charisian crown (and treasury); Emperor Cayleb and Empress Sharleyan have only increased the crown's support; and everyone involved in the industrialization process has known ever since Armageddon Reef what will happen to them — and their families — if Clyntahn wins. When you look at that level of resources, the extent of that coordination at the highest levels, and the motivation of the labor force, and you compare that to actual Real World™ building rates even in much less industrialized societies than our own, I don't think the rate of expansion of the single industrial node
absolutely vital to the survival of the Charisian Empire is really that preposterous.
For that matter, I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't been more discussion on the four of the potential for a catastrophic point failure if Something Goes Wrong at Delthak. By the strangest turn of fate, I think it's possible —
possible, you understand — something like that might be addressed in the new book.
in the years after 1781 steam engines became widely used in Britain and IIRC especially in the coal mining industry. I'd assume there'd be a link to the iron production numbers.
) accident; all or most of one type of manufactories could be a possible, albeit not likely, outcome.
It's a pretty interesting point to think about... the possibiblites. 