Well, every author twists internal logic now and then in order to tell the story he needs to tell. And usually the readers don't complain. (Note that SNARCs should have been capable of sniffing out the black powder in the wheelchair used for the attack on Hector&Irys in Manchyr - must've been tetrion field interferences...)
In this case, we got the esteemed author somewhat red-handed
.
To wit: Charisian high command has access to SNARC information. Whoever is running Desnairian naval tactics right now, he'll be monitored. Since pack tactics need coordination and approval at high command, Rock Point should have been aware of their new approach.
Then, there's OWL. He tends to provide convenient probabilities on lots of issues and shows initiative. A message like: "There's a 73% chance of losing at least one of the really important ships in the latest weapons convoy." would have been plausible.
So, ICN admiralty and inner circle should've been able to prevent such a loss at an inconvenient moment.
Moreover, the CoGA has pursued a campaign of mass murder that combines the sadistic perversion of midieval witch hunts with the slaughter of ethnic cleansing. Consequently, the EoC already kills every inquisitor it can find. So, if I'd be in the sailors shoes, I'd figure my best chance would be sinking my ship before surrendering - the Desnairians might lose interest. In fact, I'd expect that most EoC and RS units simply wouldn't consider surrendering any more - and a policy that wounded would be offered Pascale's grace in case of retreat.
Finally, it's a long way to Desnair from the likely route of the convoy. Might be we find out some of the Desnairian spoils of war found the bottom of the sea - eventually.
Summing up, this particular turn of events looks a bit suspicious to the reader, especially since RFC makes quite some effort to provide plausible explanations. But he knows, might be the Desnairians got incredibly lucky
. However, he'd probably figured he needed that twist to further the plot. It'll be interesting to see for what.
And on something completely different, I wish RFC all the best with his back. He's on the pert side these days, I get
...
runsforcelery wrote:
(SNIPPED original post by AETHOR for brevity.)
I'm sorry you feel the ICN is run by idiots. Of course, you have the advantage of a little insight no one on Safehold has, don't you?
The Inner Circle was aware that the threat of commerce-raiders was growing, but the ICN's convoy tactics had been fully adequate over the last several years. You do not go around planting explosives aboard your own vessels "just in case" under those circumstances, nor do you ask your personnel to blow themselves up to prevent capture. They may choose to blow themselves up if something catastrophic happens, but that's rather a different proposition.
Look, the Desnarians have been building their privateers for a while. At the time the convoy sailed, however, they'd never adopted the "swarming" tactic they adopted against it --- certainly not in anything remotely like that strength. So what you're saying is that a navy which has successfully swept all other organized naval opposition from the seas, which has demonstrated again and again that it knows how convoy tactics work, and whose convoy escorts have succeeded against almost every attack (losses have been overwhelmingly concentrated against ships sailing alone, not in convoy) is run by idiots because it hasn't drawn up plans for its own ships to suicide just because they're carrying important cargos.
Why should they? Aside from denying the enemy the opportunity to experiment with a few thousand rifles, what would they accomplish? And what good will it do the other side to experiment with them in the dozen weeks or so they have before they get real, hands-on field experience with that those rifles can do?
Is there a single chance in hell that the Church isn't going to find out about these weapons' existence the first time they're used against it? No, there isn't. Is there a single chance in hell that they're going to be able to duplicate them in any significant numbers? No, there isn't. Is there any chance in hell that having examples of them to play with is going to allow them to envision ways in which they could be used against them which aren't already going to be demonstrated to them by BGV in the next month or so? No, there isn't. Will it break the inner circle's hearts if the bad guys are given yet another example of the reasons Charisian tech is kicking their asses on the battlefield? No, it won't. Will it be a bad thing if people like the Dohlarans (or even the Desnarians) who are already worried that ths jihad may be lost get direct, personal, hands-on confirmation that it is . . . and why? No, it won't. I'm not suggesting that the Charisians deliberately set out to hand those rifles over to the enemy. I'm simply pointing out that the "Ohmigod! What a catastrophe! thinking I seem to be seeing out of some people may be just a tad . . . excessive.
As for using galleons to ship them, please! This isn't USS Indianapolis delivering the atomic bomb to the Enola Gay. This is a bulk shipment of infantry weapons (admittedly of new and novel design) to the front for mass use against the enemy in the field, where examples are bound to be captured anyway. Efficiency of shipment is a whole hell of a lot more important than maintaining some sort of Top Secret mystery that's going to go away the moment they're used in combat anyway.
As for the vulnerability of the convoy, see my first paragraph above. The attack came as a complete surprise to the convoy commander, and the strength of the attack came as a surprise to the inner circle, and no navy has enough warships lying around to go assigning double or triple overkill to counter threats that are outside their intelligence appreciations.
