Convoy escorts - SPOILER for SNIPPET 8 of HFQ

Hi NinaKatarina,

Unfortunately for Dohlar, but thankfully for Ahlverez's men, its most likely threatened coasts are still some 500-600 miles from the inland border where Ahlverez will probably cross, after his 900+ mile march from Kharmych.

Time wise, it would be the middle of April before they could get to the coasts at the soonest, and dividing his army into penny packets every 10-20 miles along the coast would also be a waste of good troops when they could be the core of a new larger army.

Assuming Ahlverez makes it home [I think he will], I suspect his 13,000 Desnari infantry will head home via Silkiah ie the Thesmar-Silk Town Canal, leaving him with around 35,000 after a 600+ mile march just to the Seridahn River near Thesmar and still 300 miles from the Dohlar border, while the Desnari have another 200+, though they might stay together on the Cheryk-Somyr High road for the next 5day.

After 900+ miles they're going to need some rest before going back to the front, assuming their families don't demand some survivors' R&R with them, while the soldiers have their weapons...

Thanks to EHM and the army of Cliff Peak, Rychtyr could already be in retreat by then, leaving Dohlar to beg for terms before the RSA starts occupying all it territory, while the ICA whips the MHoGatA.

When Hanth considered the combined army facing him at Thesmar while he's checking his defensive batteries at the Thesmar Bay narrows [August: section IV] he figures his 23,000 men [if all get well] will only be 8% of the then AoS, ie 287,500 troops; (probably including the artillery) so subtracting the IDA leaves Ahlverez [including Rychtyr] up to 112,500 men before his losses and reinforcements, so 35% might be as high as 39,000 left.

So pitting Ahlverez against the 60-70,000 man alliance armies heading for Dohlar is not something to get your hopes up with.

L

NinaKatarina wrote:Well, what I'm reading from all of this (and it's quite possible I'm wrong) is that we're going to be treated to more land-and-burn operations. And that sort of thing will mean that Ahlvarez' remaining army will be less likely to be sent back to the main theater, if they feel threatened more close to home.

Is that unreasonable? Land some troops, take some territory temporarily, watch the opponent's army start to move to push you out, then get back on the boats and sail off to their original destination? The cost to the enemy in snarled logistics may be far greater than our cost in delayed reinforcements.

lyonheart wrote:Hi NinaKatarina,

Unfortunately for Dohlar, but thankfully for Ahlverez's men, its most likely threatened coasts are still some 500-600 miles from the inland border where Ahlverez will probably cross, after his 900+ mile march from Kharmych.

Time wise, it would be the middle of April before they could get to the coasts at the soonest, and dividing his army into penny packets every 10-20 miles along the coast would also be a waste of good troops when they could be the core of a new larger army.

Assuming Ahlverez makes it home [I think he will], I suspect his 13,000 Desnari infantry will head home via Silkiah ie the Thesmar-Silk Town Canal, leaving him with around 35,000 after a 600+ mile march just to the Seridahn River near Thesmar and still 300 miles from the Dohlar border, while the Desnari have another 200+, though they might stay together on the Cheryk-Somyr High road for the next 5day.

After 900+ miles they're going to need some rest before going back to the front, assuming their families don't demand some survivors' R&R with them, while the soldiers have their weapons...

Thanks to EHM and the army of Cliff Peak, Rychtyr could already be in retreat by then, leaving Dohlar to beg for terms before the RSA starts occupying all it territory, while the ICA whips the MHoGatA.

When Hanth considered the combined army facing him at Thesmar while he's checking his defensive batteries at the Thesmar Bay narrows [August: section IV] he figures his 23,000 men [if all get well] will only be 8% of the then AoS, ie 287,500 troops; (probably including the artillery) so subtracting the IDA leaves Ahlverez [including Rychtyr] up to 112,500 men before his losses and reinforcements, so 35% might be as high as 39,000 left.

So pitting Ahlverez against the 60-70,000 man alliance armies heading for Dohlar is not something to get your hopes up with.

L

NinaKatarina wrote:Well, what I'm reading from all of this (and it's quite possible I'm wrong) is that we're going to be treated to more land-and-burn operations. And that sort of thing will mean that Ahlvarez' remaining army will be less likely to be sent back to the main theater, if they feel threatened more close to home.

Is that unreasonable? Land some troops, take some territory temporarily, watch the opponent's army start to move to push you out, then get back on the boats and sail off to their original destination? The cost to the enemy in snarled logistics may be far greater than our cost in delayed reinforcements.

Most of Ahlvarez and Rycther's units are going to be pretty useless and have to be rebuilt from scratch by the time they cross the border into Dohlar. Not to mention sick and starving. All of that assumes they don't get cut off and destroyed.

Cheerful soul, aren't I?

Don

hvb wrote:
To find space for 10 pages would of course mean that the next book's dramatis personae had to be reduced by ... what? Half or so? A third?

So are you trying to get RFC to do a GRRM?

I try to keep up with the discussions goin' on here but I think I've missed some some stuff.
A number of folks are swagging that Ahlverez will make it back to Dohlar and maybe even become a co-regent with Admiral Thirsk. I'm in violent agreement that he's a very capable fella and that this would make for a better Dohlar. The part of the discussion I seem to have missed is how he's gonna be feedin' his troops and animals while they're gettin back to his co-regency.
Another thing I've missed is how this group of 30,000, who have pretty competent leadership, is gonna pussyfoot across Hanth's supply lines without him knowin' that an organized enemy force is moving across his supply lines and doin' sumthin' about eliminatin' said threat.

I'd be most 'preciative if someone could point me to those parts of the discussions I've missed.

EdThomas wrote:I try to keep up with the discussions goin' on here but I think I've missed some some stuff.
A number of folks are swagging that Ahlverez will make it back to Dohlar and maybe even become a co-regent with Admiral Thirsk. I'm in violent agreement that he's a very capable fella and that this would make for a better Dohlar. The part of the discussion I seem to have missed is how he's gonna be feedin' his troops and animals while they're gettin back to his co-regency.
Another thing I've missed is how this group of 30,000, who have pretty competent leadership, is gonna pussyfoot across Hanth's supply lines without him knowin' that an organized enemy force is moving across his supply lines and doin' sumthin' about eliminatin' said threat.

I'd be most 'preciative if someone could point me to those parts of the discussions I've missed.

you must have missed RFC's infodump about the secret tunnels under South March...

isaac_newton wrote:

EdThomas wrote:I try to keep up with the discussions goin' on here but I think I've missed some some stuff.
A number of folks are swagging that Ahlverez will make it back to Dohlar and maybe even become a co-regent with Admiral Thirsk. I'm in violent agreement that he's a very capable fella and that this would make for a better Dohlar. The part of the discussion I seem to have missed is how he's gonna be feedin' his troops and animals while they're gettin back to his co-regency.
Another thing I've missed is how this group of 30,000, who have pretty competent leadership, is gonna pussyfoot across Hanth's supply lines without him knowin' that an organized enemy force is moving across his supply lines and doin' sumthin' about eliminatin' said threat.

I'd be most 'preciative if someone could point me to those parts of the discussions I've missed.

you must have missed RFC's infodump about the secret tunnels under South March...

The tunnels contain a railway where the carts are drawn by swamp rats...

Joat42 wrote:

isaac_newton wrote:
you must have missed RFC's infodump about the secret tunnels under South March...

The tunnels contain a railway where the carts are drawn by swamp rats...

Thats the one

IIRC lit by fireflies to avoid setting off the Rakurai

Guardiandashi wrote:
the way you would have to do it would involve swapping out sections of wood hull for metal IE iron or steel, to get the required strength, (which would be heavy) the biggest problem is that the relevant mainland nations do not have the steel production it would require.

I just reread the series a couple weeks ago, and the mainland nations were trying to figure out a counter for the mortars using steel barrels because they were using cast iron for rifles barrels because they couldn't come up with the steel to make a useful amount of guns.

the fact of the matter really in a lot of ways is the mainland is still dealing with at a guess ~14th century iron and steel production technologies, while Charis (and soon Sidermark is working with ~18-19th century iron and steel production technologies. Obviously with some kinks thrown in.

My point is that the church and the loyalists are still working with iron foundries that are making batches of iron best measured in lbs (it may be 10's and hundreds of lbs per batch but still. )

Charis is now making batches of iron (especially in the Howsmith foundries) that its practical to measure in tons per batch, and they are using a few tricks from modern steel production.

at least that was my impression.

Sorry, looks like i missed this one

In 1788 a total of 105 charcoal forges in Britain were producing on average 3 tons of bar iron weekly. The largest fineries (in Worcestershire) were producing about 130 tons a year, the average was about 80 tons. The output of Britains 85 furnaces was only 68,000 tons. 26 furnaces still operated with charcoal fuel and making about 14,500 tons. By 1796 the number of furnaces had increased to 125 and their annually production was something of 125,000 tons. Which is a way to say, the average output of a blast furnace was only 20 tons per year. Ten years later, in 1805, the output of Britains furnaces nearly doubled to over 250,000 tons.

Source: Economic History of the British Iron and Steel Industry 1784 - 1879 by Alan Birch, Routledge Libary Editions, ISBN 0-415-38248-3

IMHO the Church heartlands are capable of similiar numbers. Remember, we're talking about charcoal or coal fuelled blast furnace with water-powered bellows. And Great Britain was a economical gigant at this time.

[quote="Captain Igloo
[/quote]

Sorry, looks like i missed this one

In 1788 a total of 105 charcoal forges in Britain were producing on average 3 tons of bar iron weekly. The largest fineries (in Worcestershire) were producing about 130 tons a year, the average was about 80 tons. The output of Britains 85 furnaces was only 68,000 tons. 26 furnaces still operated with charcoal fuel and making about 14,500 tons. By 1796 the number of furnaces had increased to 125 and their annually production was something of 125,000 tons. Which is a way to say, the average output of a blast furnace was only 20 tons per year. Ten years later, in 1805, the output of Britains furnaces nearly doubled to over 250,000 tons.

Source: Economic History of the British Iron and Steel Industry 1784 - 1879 by Alan Birch, Routledge Libary Editions, ISBN 0-415-38248-3

IMHO the Church heartlands are capable of similiar numbers. Remember, we're talking about charcoal or coal fuelled blast furnace with water-powered bellows. And Great Britain was a economical gigant at this time.[/quote]

I don't think the Church can do this. Glacierheart is not shipping coal this year, for obvious reasons, and I don't recall reading about any other coal production on the continent (not that there couldn't be any, but I don't recall reading about it). Additionally, it sounded to me that except for a few large forests, such as the Kyplyngyr Forest, there aren't any large forested areas to provide charcoal for blast furnaces. (Again, I may be totally off base with this).

Hi Captain Igloo,

Thanks very much for this historical industrial perspective.

Given the Go4 had ~800-864 million people after the SoS, more than a hundred times England's population, should we assume they're producing a hundred times as much?

Given the requirements of maintaining the status quo of producing the iron required for agricultural production, blacksmith's etc how much surplus is available to support the jihad?

Given ~90% of most continental nations are serfs, how many artisans can they support to compete with Charis's industrial revolution?

Remember a third will be lost when Howard is cut off.

L

Captain Igloo wrote:

Guardiandashi wrote:
the way you would have to do it would involve swapping out sections of wood hull for metal IE iron or steel, to get the required strength, (which would be heavy) the biggest problem is that the relevant mainland nations do not have the steel production it would require.

I just reread the series a couple weeks ago, and the mainland nations were trying to figure out a counter for the mortars using steel barrels because they were using cast iron for rifles barrels because they couldn't come up with the steel to make a useful amount of guns.

the fact of the matter really in a lot of ways is the mainland is still dealing with at a guess ~14th century iron and steel production technologies, while Charis (and soon Sidermark is working with ~18-19th century iron and steel production technologies. Obviously with some kinks thrown in.

My point is that the church and the loyalists are still working with iron foundries that are making batches of iron best measured in lbs (it may be 10's and hundreds of lbs per batch but still. )

Charis is now making batches of iron (especially in the Howsmith foundries) that its practical to measure in tons per batch, and they are using a few tricks from modern steel production.

at least that was my impression.

Sorry, looks like i missed this one

In 1788 a total of 105 charcoal forges in Britain were producing on average 3 tons of bar iron weekly. The largest fineries (in Worcestershire) were producing about 130 tons a year, the average was about 80 tons. The output of Britains 85 furnaces was only 68,000 tons. 26 furnaces still operated with charcoal fuel and making about 14,500 tons. By 1796 the number of furnaces had increased to 125 and their annually production was something of 125,000 tons. Which is a way to say, the average output of a blast furnace was only 20 tons per year. Ten years later, in 1805, the output of Britains furnaces nearly doubled to over 250,000 tons.

Source: Economic History of the British Iron and Steel Industry 1784 - 1879 by Alan Birch, Routledge Libary Editions, ISBN 0-415-38248-3

IMHO the Church heartlands are capable of similiar numbers. Remember, we're talking about charcoal or coal fuelled blast furnace with water-powered bellows. And Great Britain was a economical gigant at this time.