Hello PeterZ!
That's a great post, kudos!
Excellent points!
Regarding which I'll just do the numbers, shall I?
Realizations:
#1. Yup, precision wise they're years behind at best.
#2. True, Harchong craftsmen might be able to make individual copies, but the time and cost would be astronomical and too few to make a difference.
Depending somewhat on actual starting dates and whether the 4th, 5th rifle and 6th lines started at Lake Lymahn in February or only in March, between 20-30,000 M96's might have been completed.
Technically, by weight they all could have been put aboard a single ship, but they don't do that for obvious reasons.
We don't know if this convoy was a monthly or bimonthly, ie giving some indication of Charis's production rate, ie if the 6 lost cargo ships carried this much, just how much more got through?
BTW, given all the ICA combat echelons have already reached Siddarmark or Haven, what troops were these that were protected at such cost?
This might deserve its own thread.
#3. South Harchong leader's may be smart enough to realise that [though we've never met them], and it'll be interesting if we get a firepower demonstration for them or Mahrys IV and his noble ministers; I'm not convinced Mahrys is that smart and Traykos, his army or war minister is the one who refused Duchairn's logistic offer.
Being able to fire slightly faster [~25-50%] isn't that much of a single advantage over the St Kylmahn, its the brass cartridges and separate magazines etc; but it's really going to be the cordite and HE that's will be such a thunderous shock [literally
] with their vastly improved lethality when they reach the battlefields sometime this summer or fall, and by the time they're shipped in mid-summer, the convoy escort problem will have been dealt with according to RFC.
I've posted several times what a war wining proposition the mortars are, making machine guns much less a critical requirement, so the response to some actual examples will be interesting, will those made in South Harchong pile up because they're blockaded, or will they even fit those made in Haven?
4. First, neither Desnar or South Harchong is currently fighting the alliance on land, so this would be an indirect impersonal concern for the success of the rest of the Go4 armies, so even if they attempt to warn them, assuming Clyntahn will let them, it may already be too late to save them; then the South Harchong if not Desnar must plan for what happens when the alliance does win.
Second, commerce raiding isn't going to stop the convoys to Siddarmark; this 'success' was a fluke [most of the convoy was saved] RFC doesn't expect to be repeated, NTM the time to build the numbers of commerce raiders required even if it were simply isn't there.
Once breech loading artillery with real HE shells replaces the ICA's, absolutely it it'll be near suicidal, but the Go4 armies have yet to experience indirect fire ans a variety of other ICA artillery tactics and capabilities.
So the ICA may have already beaten the MHoGatA before receiving them them this summer.
Given that conclusion, the South Harchong leaders may begin to reconsider their relations with the EoC and the alliance, especially after Howard is more isolated from Haven by 'liberating Silkiah' [
], and blockading the Gulf of Dohlar.
Having such a pardner in eastern Safehold will be a huge strategic advantage for Charis and the alliance in the future, especially when South Harchong becomes independent of the north, largely thanks to the ICN.
Conclusions:
#1. Definitely something for them to think about.
By their theology, that's the lesson to take home; although I can imagine the temple arguing this all a minor setback, the CoGA will inevitably triumph, the archangels are just waiting to see who truly is worthy of them.
#2. Possibly, after Desnar is physically isolated from Haven, he'll have to start considering that, although keeping up the commerce raiding is pretty cheap and far more effective than the IDA to date, so keeping it going until they're destroyed doesn't cost him that much, and he might weasel more money out of the Go4 by threatening to stop.
#3. Yep, reconsidering your basic assumptions regarding who will win will take some time to get everyone remaining aboard, once they start to think that way, that Charis will indeed survive; that even Duchairn has already effectively admitted it by offering all the church lands in the EoC so cheaply should have been noted already, but feeling the weapons in your hands makes that far more emphatic.
Thus they have to consider Siddarmark becoming the largest and most powerful nation on Haven, partly because no one can stop her going west all the way to the temple, or reorganizing the Border States and western temple lands into de facto allies or neutrals strongly 'leaning their way'.
Meanwhile Charis forges ahead technologically, that everyone realises they must copy or die, which is what the KH VII's will say to all on the continents who see them.
L
PeterZ wrote:But Charisian tech supremacy must erode or the stories become military porn.
I believe that South Harchong and Desnair might confront some stark realization upon examining that cargo.
1-neither nation can duplicate the percision of these designs.
2-that the captured ships weren't better protected suggests the other cargo ships carried similar weapons and ammo. Neither Desnair nor South Harchong can produce those quantities at anything like affordable costs.
3-when the ICA and RSA are all armed with these weapons, they will cut through the jihadi forces like a hot knife through butter.
4-if commerce raiding does not stop these weapons from getting into Siddermark, fighting the heretics will be suicide.
These realizations might lead to a couple of conclusions.
1-If the heretics are unbeatable, might that not mean God DOES support their cause?
2-This possibility might be enough rationale to encourage Mahris to back away from the Jihad.
3-If there are further setbacks in the war, the Howard nations have to consider the possibilities.
InvisibleBison wrote:*quote="lyonheart"*Hi InvisibleBison,
Thanks for accenting these points.
If there were small steam engines for the army engineers [sawmills and pneumatic or hydraulic chain saws anyone?], I'd be very worried, but RP would have thought about that too, so apparently not.
Winter war is so specialized that I wondered about the whole army having time to really learn how to do it well in just a single winter, particularly for the new recruits training, so having dedicated seriously experienced northern RCA units eases my mind considerably.
What other tech did you have in mind?
L
*quote*
Aside from steam engines (or more precise information about how to make them than was in that briefcase the Church got in LaMA), the only specific idea I had was some industrial information intended for Siddarmarkians, though I don't know how likely it would be for such info to be shipping on an army cargo ship, if it was shipping at all. My comment was more expressing vague apprehensions about the erosion of Charis's tech supremacy.
