Has the Mesan Alignment already lost?

They created a worst situation they were attempting to stop, they wanted to stop haven becoming a threat to their plans and coming through the wormhole after them. Well they are coming and dcue to the interference they have allies and the tech to not only go after them but deal with the league.

They have no worries about people coming through the wormhole, any more than Manticore really needed to worry about Haven coming through the WH. Without knowing where the WH is in real-space it's just a giant wood chipper.

Zakharra wrote: There was the timing to coincide with the emerging SEM and Manticore hostilities. I think the MAlign people figured that Haven would continue to fight (the Republic President Pritcherd(is that her?) actions caught everyone by surprise and it would not have happened if three men had not shown up when they did. The information those men had, and only that information, was what gave the Republic President the gumption to make the unprecedented offer to talk peace, one on one, leader to leader. If those three men hadn't shown up, there would likely have still been a state of war between the SEM and Havan, just when it looked like there might be war against the SL as well.

So I think Oyster Bay was well planned and executed and would have succeeded if not for one event happening that changed the -entire- equation. One thing that the MAlign could not have foreseen happening. And it wrecked a good deal of their plans.

Manticore and Haven were talking already at the time of Oyster Bay, eight fleet was recalled as a result, and the Repulic wanted to talk before already, except the talks were sabotaged in advance by the MAlign. How far Haven was willing to go might be surprising, but that they try something should not be.
Also why do they even start the operations just now? They could have waited for Manticoran-Havenite relations to settle, or strike earlier. Instead they let themselves be scared by the advance in the Talbot cluster into premature action, and try to make reality conform to their plan instead of the other way around.
They have one shot, and shoot of half cocked with experimental units, instead of the Lennies. They could wait, even if the Manties have the Talbot sector, they wouldn't go off invading Mesa if they were not at war with the League.

I believe the best strategy for the M'Align would be to stay clear of the Haven Quadrant and its appendages through the kick off of Prometheus. Keep themselves off the radar screen of Haven, SEM and AE. Sticking their oar in the area, even including Silesia, kept them in many people's minds they don't want the attention of.

kenl511 wrote:I believe the best strategy for the M'Align would be to stay clear of the Haven Quadrant and its appendages through the kick off of Prometheus. Keep themselves off the radar screen of Haven, SEM and AE. Sticking their oar in the area, even including Silesia, kept them in many people's minds they don't want the attention of.

As far as I'm concerned, the best strategy for the MAlign at this time would be for the Detweillers and the rest of the inner core of the Onion to sit down with a blank sheet of paper and brainstorm where to go from here.

They're unlikely to do it, though. Their current strategy depends on the Renaissance Factor being the sole large organization after the SL breakup for everything else to coalesce around. As long as they adhere to that strategy, they have to try to break up the Haven Sector.

Pity about that.

Whitecold wrote:

Zakharra wrote: There was the timing to coincide with the emerging SEM and Manticore hostilities. I think the MAlign people figured that Haven would continue to fight (the Republic President Pritcherd(is that her?) actions caught everyone by surprise and it would not have happened if three men had not shown up when they did. The information those men had, and only that information, was what gave the Republic President the gumption to make the unprecedented offer to talk peace, one on one, leader to leader. If those three men hadn't shown up, there would likely have still been a state of war between the SEM and Havan, just when it looked like there might be war against the SL as well.

So I think Oyster Bay was well planned and executed and would have succeeded if not for one event happening that changed the -entire- equation. One thing that the MAlign could not have foreseen happening. And it wrecked a good deal of their plans.

Manticore and Haven were talking already at the time of Oyster Bay, eight fleet was recalled as a result, and the Repulic wanted to talk before already, except the talks were sabotaged in advance by the MAlign. How far Haven was willing to go might be surprising, but that they try something should not be.
Also why do they even start the operations just now? They could have waited for Manticoran-Havenite relations to settle, or strike earlier. Instead they let themselves be scared by the advance in the Talbot cluster into premature action, and try to make reality conform to their plan instead of the other way around.
They have one shot, and shoot of half cocked with experimental units, instead of the Lennies. They could wait, even if the Manties have the Talbot sector, they wouldn't go off invading Mesa if they were not at war with the League.

Talking about a ceasefire/peace treaty is a lot different than being allies. There's no way the MAlign could have known that Haven would actually ally with Manticore. If the Republic and the SEM had just signed a ceasefire/peace treaty that ended the war without them allying to form the Grand Alliance, Manticore would still have to have held back a number of ships just to keep an eye on Haven, just in case (a smart and prudent move given the last 20 years in game). In which case Oyster Bay would have still crippled the Manticore Alliance and possibly given those in Haven the gumption to try attacking Manticore again. This was realized when Honor told Pritchard and the other Havenites that if they didn't get a peace treaty, that Manticore -would- resume hostilities against Haven while gearing up to confront the League.

Also remember that they were only talking. When Honor and Eighth Fleet left the Haven system, there still wasn't a peace treaty, just a ceasefire. The two nations were still officially at war.

I honestly don't think President Pritchard would have gone to Manticore if not for the return of three men who totally and radically changed her and the other Republic leadership's worldview.. If not for that one unexpected event, it's very likely that Haven could have still been quietly hostile, if not openly hostile after OB happened and the SEM was headed on a collision course with the Solarian League. Basically, if not for Haven doing the totally unexpected, ie Pritchard showing up in Haven One in Manticore, the SEM would be in a much deeper and more dangerous place. Their victory wouldn't be assured at all even with their tech advantage. In this case it's the Republic of Haven that is saving the SEM's arse.

Zakharra wrote:

Talking about a ceasefire/peace treaty is a lot different than being allies. There's no way the MAlign could have known that Haven would actually ally with Manticore. If the Republic and the SEM had just signed a ceasefire/peace treaty that ended the war without them allying to form the Grand Alliance, Manticore would still have to have held back a number of ships just to keep an eye on Haven, just in case (a smart and prudent move given the last 20 years in game). In which case Oyster Bay would have still crippled the Manticore Alliance and possibly given those in Haven the gumption to try attacking Manticore again. This was realized when Honor told Pritchard and the other Havenites that if they didn't get a peace treaty, that Manticore -would- resume hostilities against Haven while gearing up to confront the League.

Also remember that they were only talking. When Honor and Eighth Fleet left the Haven system, there still wasn't a peace treaty, just a ceasefire. The two nations were still officially at war.

I honestly don't think President Pritchard would have gone to Manticore if not for the return of three men who totally and radically changed her and the other Republic leadership's worldview.. If not for that one unexpected event, it's very likely that Haven could have still been quietly hostile, if not openly hostile after OB happened and the SEM was headed on a collision course with the Solarian League. Basically, if not for Haven doing the totally unexpected, ie Pritchard showing up in Haven One in Manticore, the SEM would be in a much deeper and more dangerous place. Their victory wouldn't be assured at all even with their tech advantage. In this case it's the Republic of Haven that is saving the SEM's arse.

If Honor could have negotiated the treaty, I don't think they would have been hostile. Allies at that point, No. But not hostile. Remember it has been the Prichard government wanting out of the war well before Torch and before Lovat demonstrated to them their military disadvantage. As it actually happened, most surely it turned out for the best.

Don

In the 600 year plan, we assume that Haven was supposed to wipe out the SKM so that when the time came, Darius could be used against.... Beowulf and the League. But not only did those dang neobarbs fight back, they basically won.

And those dang Haven despots got themselves killed off and replaced by... moral folks, and... the Alignment's easy takeover plan is toast. So, but Oyster Bay didn't aim to destroy the RMN, but the RMN's ability to... (drum roll?) ... target Darius. Maybe now Haven would come through and stomp on the SEM after all...

But no... Haven joins the GA. All the Detweilers pretty much cussing up a blue streak in Galactic standard and running like hell with the rest of their 25K Mesa bound minions.

In other words, other than killing 5MM people in the Star Kingdom and however many more in Grayson, the ONLY place where the MA has been successful is in the League. They've already cost the SLN what, 25% of Battle Fleet? without firing a shot themselves. Now they've positioned folks in the SLN to convince them that they can't beat the RMN without throwing most of Frontier Fleet at the GA and maybe wave Battle Fleet at Beowulf and like minded systems in the vain hope that the SL doesn't come apart like the Alignment wants it to.

BEFORE the GA finds Darius.

I don't think that the MA has lost. However, there some weaknesses in MA. I think that will show up again and again. I formed the impression the Verdant Vista Wormhole Bridge has two termini in the Felix system. However, it might be that the two termini are bridges to somewhere else. My reading of those paragraphs are a bit confused. The Wormhole junction in the Felix system has four secondary termini one of which leads to Darius. Once you know that spider and streak drive exist and with Herlander Simoes they will have some of the theory on the streak drive between Admiral Foraker and Admiral Hemphill there might have a lot of discoveries pop up. Even so, finding and fighting the MA is going to be difficult.

james99 wrote:I don't think that the MA has lost. However, there some weaknesses in MA. I think that will show up again and again. I formed the impression the Verdant Vista Wormhole Bridge has two termini in the Felix system. However, it might be that the two termini are bridges to somewhere else. My reading of those paragraphs are a bit confused. The Wormhole junction in the Felix system has four secondary termini one of which leads to Darius.

Torch's wormhole is a bridge, with only one destination - properly speaking. But the other destination is SGC-902-36-G, and the termini is one of the Twins - two wormhole termini that open up in SGC-902-36-G, with those termini very, very close to one another.

The other Twin leads to Felix, a proper wormhole junction, with termini leading to SGC-902-36-G, Darius, and two other undisclosed locations.
See -
http://honorverse.wikia.com/wiki/Felix_ ... e_Junction
http://honorverse.wikia.com/wiki/SGC-90 ... le_Anomaly

I think that other nearby terminus in SGC-902-36-G is why the Torch wormhole has that weird bump.