Lacöon I

kzt wrote:What does a small isolated planet need in the way of financial services? How does that compare to what Zimbabwe needs in the way of financial services? For Talbott quadrant, the financial center was Rembrandt, which wasn't exactly London. At the start of SoS you think you could go to Rembrant and buy 150 billion Manticoran dollars worth of Hauptman Cartel long term bonds in exchange for 50 billion of the Tallulah Corporation’s short-term bonds and 100 billion of Trifecta Corporation’s common stock that you happen to have with you?

You beat me to it, kzt. I was going to post on the same lines, but your description is better. I would only add as a means of comparison that centers in the SL (and Manticore) are like J.P Morgan-Chase and Bank of America, while polities like Haven or Maya would have smaller centers like Regions Bank or Compass Bank, and places like Talbott or other verge systems would be limited to local places like Fifth Third Bank (and yes, there really is a bank by that name).

Every place has an economy. The SL just has more economy that most everybody else.

TO help the verge and hteir allies, they need not use fortunes, just methods to encourage wealth, so an interstellar future version of micro loans and potentially other methods.

kzt wrote:

DDHv wrote:Just how strongly interconnected are those regional centers?

Given a week+ transit time, not very.

The slow transit time would slow the action. It might not change the character of it. The little I understand on complexity theory says:

1) a complex system can have a critical state in which some element has a multiplying effect cascade action.

2) because of this the odds of a maximum possible result go up in an exponential way with the relative size of the system. It has nothing to do with the size of the triggering event, or the speed of the interconnection.

A fission bomb explosion and the collapse of the Roman empire are two examples of complex systems.

I can see the delay time producing a slower action.

In economics, an example would be:
for a simplex system, the systemic counter party risk of failure is calculated on a net (those who cover the risk less those who need to cover it) basis, but with a complex system, the systemic risk is additive. (those who cover it plus those who need to cover it.) I can't do the math myself, but this is my understanding. Part of the reason for unpredictable timing is that it isn't obvious when a complex system changes from non-critical to critical.

A complex system follows power law distribution, rather than normal distribution of results, producing a "fat tail" pattern.

All of which says "we didn't expect playing with just one match would start such a large forest fire."

The key to stopping or preventing a complex system result is either 1) reducing the number of independent agents (spray that increasingly large pile of sand with a binding agent to reduce the chance of the sand sliding) which in a society means more rigid control, or 2) reducing the strength of interconnections (such as having a power grid of many micro-grids which disconnect when under strain.)


When we moved here, this town had a backup diesel generating station, which has since been taken down.
There are a few small backups (for the old folks home, etc.) but for the town, the situation has become less stable.

Looking at the ebola situation, resolution is likely to depend on which complex system is faster: the spread of the disease, or putting into effect by enough people of known methods of reducing that spread. (Basically, this is quarantine.) The problem is the need to both spread the knowledge and ACT on it consistently. I understand the patient in Spain absently minded brushed the cheek with a glove that had not been sterilized by washing with bleach.

kzt wrote:

SWM wrote:But the Honorverse is not the Earth. David specifically described a distributed financial network very different from the Earth. It was the result of a complete economic catastrophe, in which people didn't trust large centralized financial markets. Besides which, the Honorverse does not have rapid communication. You have to have a distributed network to handle the financial market. You can't use the Earth as a model. Are you suggesting that systems beyond the Solarian League depend on a financial market in which the nearest regional financial center is six months away?

It was the SL and SL corps that built that network, for their purposes.

Do you think they give a damn about any system 6 months travel from civilization? What financial center do the Kalahari Bushmen use? How about New Guinea headhunters? How does this tragic lack of convenient financial centers impact the lives of the headhunters or of the bankers in Zurich?

Where do you get the idea that the Solarian League built the distributed financial network? David never said that. The distributed network was established around the same time that the Solarian League itself was established, when it had only a couple dozen members and very little power. It makes little sense to have a distributed network when you have only twenty-five systems within easy reach of each other. The network was necessary for the hundreds of other systems outside of the Solarian League.

I will also quote one sentence from David's infodump:

But Manticore is very definitely first among equals -- by a substantial margin -- compared to the other interstellar banking centers scattered around the galaxy.

I think David is quite clear--the banking centers are all over the place, not just the Solarian League and Manticore.

There was a Banking thread a long while back.

In basic terms, the probability of structure and development of financial centers and inter-system trade/finance may have followed developments of international finance and trade from the 13th (and earlier) Century and be holding at something like the 18th and mid 19th Century Earth.

You have long distances and long time lag in communications and transport of materials.
You have mostly private banking houses that act as interchange and lending sources for financial transactions and to deliver payment/receive payment of funds.

These are the same people who handle currency conversion.

Now days they are local, regional, national, multi-national banks, finance companies, financial services/brokerage companies and insurance companies.

They make agreements….they will transact business for correspondents in other places. It really doesn't matter if you are a one location bank in Sagebrush, New Mexico,USA or the Bank of Nirobi in Kenya- you make a formal arrangement with a "correspondent" bank somewhere elce (New York, New York or London, England or San Palo, Brazil) for access to other financial markets both for yourself and your customers.

Talbot Quadrant with Rembrant and the cartel that was set is one example. We also have mention of a "Judean League" which sounded (to me at least) to be a multi-system group and they are outside of the SL. We also have Matapan and then there are the ones we have closer to Manticore (other than Silesia) like Asgard and Midgard. There is a strong likelyhood that SOMEBODY running a banking operation there has at least one branch location or direct affiliates on other systems in the group AND with "correspondents" at Manticore if not also directly with one or more really reallly big opeations like Bank of Madrid.

The Honorverse does not have the equivelent of "wire transfers" over inter-system distances. They have it intra-system but there is still light-speed time late. We have seen electronic credit chips for exchanging funds- most recently in COG where the slavers are using them to buy/sell at the space station.

The people in systems who have nothing to sell- or no way to sell it- to other systems don't need really fancy intersetllar banking arrangement. And, on a single planet essentialy isolated the way some tribes are out in the backwoods on Earth, their own internal economy will opearate at whatever level is sufficent for them to swap goods/credit/services for other goods/credit/serivces.

SWM wrote:Where do you get the idea that the Solarian League built the distributed financial network? David never said that. The distributed network was established around the same time that the Solarian League itself was established, when it had only a couple dozen members and very little power. It makes little sense to have a distributed network when you have only twenty-five systems within easy reach of each other. The network was necessary for the hundreds of other systems outside of the Solarian League.

I will also quote one sentence from David's infodump:

But Manticore is very definitely first among equals -- by a substantial margin -- compared to the other interstellar banking centers scattered around the galaxy.

I think David is quite clear--the banking centers are all over the place, not just the Solarian League and Manticore.

And you keep forgetting that since the League was established, it's done nothing but grow. It has likely grown to have most of those financial banking sectors within its borders. Most of the systems outside of the League are -poor-. Do they have some financial systems? Yes, but where do the big banking sectors grow? Where the money is and for a long time that money has been in the Solarian League and Manticore. You won't have a large or powerful banking sector out in Podunk system out in the interstellar back 40.

For whatever reason, you seem intent on proving that the SL does not control over or have most of the banking sectors in its borders. The infodumps just say there are a number of them, and that Manticore was an unusually large one (solely to its Junction) but it doesn't say that they all are spread outside of SL control.

And if the SL is to survive it would have to cut as many financial ties as possible with the SEM. If the SL wants to survive it -has- to do without Manticore's banking sector.

Hutch wrote:You beat me to it, kzt. I was going to post on the same lines, but your description is better. I would only add as a means of comparison that centers in the SL (and Manticore) are like J.P Morgan-Chase and Bank of America, while polities like Haven or Maya would have smaller centers like Regions Bank or Compass Bank, and places like Talbott or other verge systems would be limited to local places like Fifth Third Bank (and yes, there really is a bank by that name).

Every place has an economy. The SL just has more economy that most everybody else.

SWM wrote:But the Honorverse is not the Earth. David specifically described a distributed financial network very different from the Earth. It was the result of a complete economic catastrophe, in which people didn't trust large centralized financial markets. Besides which, the Honorverse does not have rapid communication. You have to have a distributed network to handle the financial market. You can't use the Earth as a model. Are you suggesting that systems beyond the Solarian League depend on a financial market in which the nearest regional financial center is six months away?

kzt wrote:It was the SL and SL corps that built that network, for their purposes.

Do you think they give a damn about any system 6 months travel from civilization? What financial center do the Kalahari Bushmen use? How about New Guinea headhunters? How does this tragic lack of convenient financial centers impact the lives of the headhunters or of the bankers in Zurich?

SWM wrote:Where do you get the idea that the Solarian League built the distributed financial network? David never said that. The distributed network was established around the same time that the Solarian League itself was established, when it had only a couple dozen members and very little power. It makes little sense to have a distributed network when you have only twenty-five systems within easy reach of each other. The network was necessary for the hundreds of other systems outside of the Solarian League.

I will also quote one sentence from David's infodump:

But Manticore is very definitely first among equals -- by a substantial margin -- compared to the other interstellar banking centers scattered around the galaxy.

I think David is quite clear--the banking centers are all over the place, not just the Solarian League and Manticore.

While Manticore is definitely first among equals, most of the rest of the equals pretty much have to be in the Solarian League, simply due to the size of the League economy. (Unless there is another system with the equivalent of the Manticoran Wormhole Junction in the Honorverse.)

To use a baseball analogy (since baseball is still played in the Honorverse, even if not many planets play it), Manticore, the financial centers in the Solarian League (Beowulf, etc.) and the Andermani Empire (Potsdam - the capital) are in the major leagues, while the other financial centers outside the League and other functional multi-system polities are in the minor leagues.

The Republic of Haven during its heyday (the time period of the Manticore Ascendant series) was in the majors, fell to the minors during the time of the Legislaturists and the People's Republic, began the turnaround under the Committee of Public Safety (when Pierre rammed through his economic reforms) and now under the restored Republic of Haven (and as part of the Grand Alliance) will continue to progress and eventually regain its previous status as a major-league regional financial center as the rest of its economy improves.

The Silesian Confederacy, as a non-functional multi-system polity, was in the minor-leagues. As reforms are made (by the Andermani and Manticore), the worlds of the former Confederacy taken as a whole, may move up the rankings in the minor leagues, but (my guesstimate) will probably not make it into the majors as the Andermani and Manticore will dominate. Branch offices of the Andermani and Manticoran financial centers will probably serve the area instead for major financial transactions.

That's a very good example Vince.

The league grew and expanded, but the verge was harshly exploited with a few key planets coming out of it well off, but the rest suffered.

Zakharra wrote: And you keep forgetting that since the League was established, it's done nothing but grow. It has likely grown to have most of those financial banking sectors within its borders. Most of the systems outside of the League are -poor-. Do they have some financial systems? Yes, but where do the big banking sectors grow? Where the money is and for a long time that money has been in the Solarian League and Manticore. You won't have a large or powerful banking sector out in Podunk system out in the interstellar back 40.

I have not forgotten that. What I am saying is that if systems outside the League back then needed regional financial services, then systems even farther outside of the League today certainly need the same. You seem to think that all systems outside the League are like Nuncio. That simply isn't true. Systems outside of Sol back before the Final War apparently needed interstellar financial services. After the war, they expressed that need by creating a distributed financial network, which developed into regional financial centers. Yes, most of those early systems were eventually absorbed into the Solarian League, but the distributed network continued to grow as explored space expanded. There is a lot more space outside of the League than inside it. Something like 80% of the inhabited systems are outside of the League. They need interstellar banking. They need to exchange stocks and bonds. They need regional financial centers, so they don't have to rely on League financial centers six months away.

For whatever reason, you seem intent on proving that the SL does not control over or have most of the banking sectors in its borders. The infodumps just say there are a number of them, and that Manticore was an unusually large one (solely to its Junction) but it doesn't say that they all are spread outside of SL control.

You have repeatedly mis-stated what I am saying. I'm not sure if you are misreading what I write, or are deliberately creating straw men. I have not said that "they are all spread outside of SL control." I am saying that regional centers outside of the League exist, and that they are an important factor in interstellar financial transactions. The fact that Manticore is such a regional center is proof that regional centers outside of the League exist.

And if the SL is to survive it would have to cut as many financial ties as possible with the SEM. If the SL wants to survive it -has- to do without Manticore's banking sector.

I have never disagreed with that statement. What I disagree with is your assumption that the League can ignore the other regional financial centers outside of the League. Yes, the League will try to cut off all Manticoran financial interests within the League itself. Absolutely agreed. But I don't think the League can force regional centers outside of the League to cut off Manticore, nor do I think that the League can cut itself off from those regional centers outside of the League. Not if it wants to actually conduct trade with anyone outside the League.