Lacöon I

kzt wrote:

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:But that is ok; each side wants to recruit nuetrals to be "nuetral" in their favor. In the Verge, and to some extent in the Shell, where system governments may have recent recollection of the beneficence of OFS and the agencies of Interior, Trade, and Treasury, there may well be some covert support for the GA--as long as they can keep it sufficiently hidden not to warrant direct Solarian retaliation. But the Sollies ought to be smart enough not to retaliate--they want those systems to eventually fully rejoin the SL as members. And if the GA eventually stalls, they would regain any systems lost without messy, military actions against their own members.

There is no long term if they don't stop the train. So the fact that a tactic might be a bad idea in the long run is totally unimportant if it is useful right now.

Good point. And the reason for Kingsford's plan to shift to a strategy of commerce warfare.

But are you referring to the idea of immediate Solarian retaliation in force (likely, given McCartney), or to the tactic of waiting for the politics to sort itself out (barely possible, if Kolokoltsov gets Quartermain and Wodoslowski sp? to side with him) ?

However, I also wonder whether the Mandarins are actually taking in how close they are to disaster. They obviously know it is "bad." They are aware of Manti or GA military superiority--but are still concealing that from the public. But none of them (except KoolAid Brains) even noticed the danger of the Tang/Truman confrontation in Beowulf, and its emphasis on the constitution.

Regards,

Rob

THe mandarin could make an argument, that they could potentially take over every wormhole that the alliance is in control of and allied to. SAYing they had too, they had justified other stuff over the years, and the wormholes would earn them a fortune. So that is their justification for the war, a chance at alot of monety.

All posters on the current thread seem to think that the League is going to survive long enough for the various scenarios you are postulating to play out naturally.

I think that the real question that needs to be addressed here is how long will it take for the League to collapse? How many core worlds are going to stick around after the League sends a fleet to Beowulf in an obvious attempt to reverse Beowulf's succession by force? Also, when allied fleets begin dismantling the League by force, establishing mutual defense and trading agreements to those worlds it removes from League custody, how will the financial markets in the League be impacted?

Don

n7axw wrote:All posters on the current thread seem to think that the League is going to survive long enough for the various scenarios you are postulating to play out naturally.

I think that the real question that needs to be addressed here is how long will it take for the League to collapse? How many core worlds are going to stick around after the League sends a fleet to Beowulf in an obvious attempt to reverse Beowulf's succession by force? Also, when allied fleets begin dismantling the League by force, establishing mutual defense and trading agreements to those worlds it removes from League custody, how will the financial markets in the League be impacted?

Don

I think we're operating off the premise that the League thinks it will survive long enough, it hopes. The leadership of the SL has to think it has a chance of surviving or they might as well pack their bags and leave now. So we (I am at least) looking at it from the League's prospective of 'what do I have to do to survive this crisis?' rather than the meta view we readers have of having information the SL leadership doesn't have. As far as the League is concerned, it has a chance, slim as it is, but it has a chance to survive. So they are taking it and they have to look at and plan for the long view while working on the short term as well. Long term planning costs almost nothing.

Zakharra wrote: /sighh

You're missing the point. The SL and SEM/GA are at war. The SL HAS to cut off their financial market as much as they can from Manticore and the GA or it will suffer worse economic damage. To allow that market to remain connected is insane in a time of war, and they are in a state of war. Letting those markets remain connected as you are implying would let the SEM completely crash the SL economy far more than it has now.

It's to both sides advantage to have those ties as severed as possible, and I am sure that even as much damage as removing the SEM banking industry from the SL banking/financial sector will hurt, it's a price the SL will pay if it is to survive. Otherwise if the financial sectors remain connected as you are imp-lying, the SL has already lost because the SEM has it, literally, by the short and curlies in regards to the SL economy.

No, I understand your point, I just think you are wrong. You are missing my point, which is that the Solarian League cannot afford to cut off the interstellar financial market.

I am trying to say that if the League tries to block Manticore from the interstellar financial market, all they will accomplish is to cut themselves from it. And that would be a disaster for the League. And it would do nothing to cut Manticore from the financial market. You are trying to say that the League needs to prevent Manticore from destroying their finances. I am trying to say that all the League would accomplish is to destroy their own finances, doing Manticore's work for them.

SWM wrote:No, I understand your point, I just think you are wrong. You are missing my point, which is that the Solarian League cannot afford to cut off the interstellar financial market.

I am trying to say that if the League tries to block Manticore from the interstellar financial market, all they will accomplish is to cut themselves from it. And that would be a disaster for the League. And it would do nothing to cut Manticore from the financial market. You are trying to say that the League needs to prevent Manticore from destroying their finances. I am trying to say that all the League would accomplish is to destroy their own finances, doing Manticore's work for them.

The SL IS the financial market. how many highly industrialized systems does manticore control? How many does the SL?

SWM wrote:

Zakharra wrote: /sighh

You're missing the point. The SL and SEM/GA are at war. The SL HAS to cut off their financial market as much as they can from Manticore and the GA or it will suffer worse economic damage. To allow that market to remain connected is insane in a time of war, and they are in a state of war. Letting those markets remain connected as you are implying would let the SEM completely crash the SL economy far more than it has now.

It's to both sides advantage to have those ties as severed as possible, and I am sure that even as much damage as removing the SEM banking industry from the SL banking/financial sector will hurt, it's a price the SL will pay if it is to survive. Otherwise if the financial sectors remain connected as you are imp-lying, the SL has already lost because the SEM has it, literally, by the short and curlies in regards to the SL economy.

No, I understand your point, I just think you are wrong. You are missing my point, which is that the Solarian League cannot afford to cut off the interstellar financial market.

I am trying to say that if the League tries to block Manticore from the interstellar financial market, all they will accomplish is to cut themselves from it. And that would be a disaster for the League. And it would do nothing to cut Manticore from the financial market. You are trying to say that the League needs to prevent Manticore from destroying their finances. I am trying to say that all the League would accomplish is to destroy their own finances, doing Manticore's work for them.

So you're saying that the SL cannot afford to cut off the enemies it's fighting because they are too entrenched in the SL's financial sector? I'm sorry, but that is insane. They have to have cut it off or they might as well cut their throats now and save everyone the effort. In a war, you literally do NOT let the enemy have access to your financial/banking sector or they -will- mess with your monetary system.

Yes the SEM financial sector is big, but as kzt points out, the SEM is not the heart of it. It's big, but in this war only an insane person would keep those ties intact. One of the first rules of war in the modern age is you cut off as much of the enemy's finances as possible. This means freezing their accounts and seizing their property and setting sanctions. An example, if the US and China went to war, do you think the US would not freeze all Chinese accounts in the US financial system and cut off all financial ties? Even as important as the Chinese economy is to the US economy (and cutting it off would hurt), the US would still do that because to let the Chinese still have access to the US financial market would be ludicrous and to be blunt, stupid as hell. Without a doubt, it would be completely cut off despite any damage it would do to the US economy. The same thing to any other foe the US went to war with, even Europe if for some unknown reason there was a war fought between the US and E, would face financial isolation.

Zakharra wrote: So you're saying that the SL cannot afford to cut off the enemies it's fighting because they are too entrenched in the SL's financial sector? I'm sorry, but that is insane. They have to have cut it off or they might as well cut their throats now and save everyone the effort. In a war, you literally do NOT let the enemy have access to your financial/banking sector or they -will- mess with your monetary system.

Yes the SEM financial sector is big, but as kzt points out, the SEM is not the heart of it. It's big, but in this war only an insane person would keep those ties intact. One of the first rules of war in the modern age is you cut off as much of the enemy's finances as possible. This means freezing their accounts and seizing their property and setting sanctions. An example, if the US and China went to war, do you think the US would not freeze all Chinese accounts in the US financial system and cut off all financial ties? Even as important as the Chinese economy is to the US economy (and cutting it off would hurt), the US would still do that because to let the Chinese still have access to the US financial market would be ludicrous and to be blunt, stupid as hell. Without a doubt, it would be completely cut off despite any damage it would do to the US economy. The same thing to any other foe the US went to war with, even Europe if for some unknown reason there was a war fought between the US and E, would face financial isolation.

No, I am saying that the League cannot afford to cut off the regional financial markets in independent systems. You haven't been listening. The United States would indeed freeze the Chinese accounts in the United States. But it would not be able to freeze the Chinese accounts in Russia, in Switzerland, in Brazil, in India, and so on.

Yes, the League will freeze all Manticoran accounts within the Solarian League. But most of the regional financial centers are outside of the Solarian League. What I have been saying is that those independent financial markets will be forced to listen to Manticore more than to the Solarian League, because the financial market is critically dependent on the wormhole network. Manticore could force the independent markets to cut off the Solarian League, which is what you have been saying the League is afraid of. What I'm saying is that if the League tried to force the independent markets to cut of Manticore by threatening to cut those markets off from the League, I think the markets would call the League's bluff. If the League carried through with the threat, they would be doing exactly what they are afraid Manticore might do.

If the League is afraid that Manticore might cut it off from the independent regional markets, why would the League cut itself off from the independent regional markets?

kzt wrote:

SWM wrote:No, I understand your point, I just think you are wrong. You are missing my point, which is that the Solarian League cannot afford to cut off the interstellar financial market.

I am trying to say that if the League tries to block Manticore from the interstellar financial market, all they will accomplish is to cut themselves from it. And that would be a disaster for the League. And it would do nothing to cut Manticore from the financial market. You are trying to say that the League needs to prevent Manticore from destroying their finances. I am trying to say that all the League would accomplish is to destroy their own finances, doing Manticore's work for them.

The SL IS the financial market. how many highly industrialized systems does manticore control? How many does the SL?

We aren't talking about industry. We are talking about financial markets. That infodump tells us that after the Final War, the interstellar financial market dispersed into regional centers all over explored space, and the Solarian League is no longer the dominant force in the financial market.

SWM wrote:

kzt wrote:The SL IS the financial market. how many highly industrialized systems does manticore control? How many does the SL?

We aren't talking about industry. We are talking about financial markets. That infodump tells us that after the Final War, the interstellar financial market dispersed into regional centers all over explored space, and the Solarian League is no longer the dominant force in the financial market.

No. It's the Sol system that was no longer the dominate force in the financial market. Most of the regional centers of the financial market that came into being afterwards will be in SL space. The SL is HUGE. You keep ignoring that for all intents and purposes, the SL is human space. Something like 90% of all human settled worlds are in the SL (I believe that was stated in one of the first books). Manticore, Haven, the Andermani empire? Those are outlier systems. Manticore's only strength came because its wormhole junction allowed it to reach a lot of League space. Manticore's position as a regional center is unusual in that it was the only one -not- a part of the SL. That's one of the reasons the SL was somewhat bitter about the SKM. Because they didn't control it. It's that economic influence that allowed the SKM to get the SL to be officially neutral in the war between the SKM and Haven.

If the League wants to survive, they have to cut Manticore off from their markets. That's basic logic and a fact of survival. If the League wants to have even a chance at surviving, severing those ties is paramount so it gives the League's remaining financial markets (which is still most of human space) a chance to recover.

Yes, the League will freeze all Manticoran accounts within the Solarian League. But most of the regional financial centers are outside of the Solarian League. What I have been saying is that those independent financial markets will be forced to listen to Manticore more than to the Solarian League, because the financial market is critically dependent on the wormhole network. Manticore could force the independent markets to cut off the Solarian League, which is what you have been saying the League is afraid of. What I'm saying is that if the League tried to force the independent markets to cut of Manticore by threatening to cut those markets off from the League, I think the markets would call the League's bluff. If the League carried through with the threat, they would be doing exactly what they are afraid Manticore might do.

If the League is afraid that Manticore might cut it off from the independent regional markets, why would the League cut itself off from the independent regional markets?

If those independent systems want to do business in the SL, they will have to toe the line. And again I remind you that the majority (all but one I would say) of the regional markets that grew up after the Sol system lost its preeminent place were still located in the Solarian League. The League is -huge- and until the rise of Manticore and Haven, there were no other stellar nations that even came close to matching its power and economic might. The League has been, for all intents and purposes, the center of the human settled galaxy for nearly a thousand years. It set policy and its unlikely that the other regional markets you're envisioning ever existed outside of the League. Manticore by itself is not enough to financially destroy the League's economy or financial banking sector. It's not that large.