Just a random thought on the return

Hildum wrote:There is a lot of speculation about the return in twenty years. What if it really is one of the archangels, either via VR recording or by cryogenic chamber? Since Nimue was originally part of the command crew to settle Safehold and transferred to the fleet, I imagine everyone on the colonization fleet knew her, particularly the command crew which she was a part of. So imagine their surprise when the encounter Nimue:

"Lt Commander, how are you here!? Did the fleet survive!?"

"Is that a katana you have there? My where did I put my head?"

DrakBibliophile wrote:Well, remember that Nimue PICA 1 is now a male and Nimue PICA 2 is shorter than the original Nimue.

So anybody who knew the original Nimue won't recognize Merlin (Nimue PICA 1) and would think Nimue PICA 2 has "shrunk in the wash".

Hildum wrote:There is a lot of speculation about the return in twenty years. What if it really is one of the archangels, either via VR recording or by cryogenic chamber? Since Nimue was originally part of the command crew to settle Safehold and transferred to the fleet, I imagine everyone on the colonization fleet knew her, particularly the command crew which she was a part of. So imagine their surprise when the encounter Nimue:

"Lt Commander, how are you here!? Did the fleet survive!?"

Merlin (Nimue) could just reconfigure back into Nimue the female if that was an issue. Remember the original configuration of the PICA was as the female Nimue. I am sure it would retain the ability to turn back into "Nimue."

jgnfld wrote:True enough. But when it became clear that a PICA or 2 must be involved--and it would be clear to a Federation citizen/AI pretty quickly upon examination of events, I would think a query to the records re. PICAs would be in order. Unless the person was totally incompetent.

How would it become clear that PICAs are involved? Maybe someone is using leftover fedtech and a closer examination will show no evidence of PICAs. Also, any records checked will show that no PICAs was on the colonization fleet. And the PICA Nimue is using was built by Owl which means there is even less evidence.

Why should anyone suddenly start looking for PICAs because Safehold suddenly "took a right turn"?

I don't really understand your reasoning.

My reasoning would be as follows:

1. The sudden introduction of clear analogues of devices from Earth's history.
2. The lack of extended technological wrong turns/dead ends, particularly in the Empire of Charis.
3. The unerring intelligence coups that keep appearing to happen.
4. The stories of a super soldier with incredibly fast reflexes.
5. Stories of multiple super soldiers in multiple places who just happen to provide accidental coordination for the Empire of Charis.
6. Several assassinations much better explained by access to advanced tech.
7. (Consulting the OBS records) Sudden appearance of anomalous heat sources on remote islands.
8. (Consulting OBS records) Numerous flights by archangelic vehicles.
9. SNARC observations of the bodyguards seemingly at the centre of all the above.

and any number of other anomalies.

It simply would leap out to a competent member of the Federation--and this fleet was staffed by the most competent remaining people available--that there is a Federation influence at work. Sure, other hypotheses would have to be crossed off, but it would leap out as well upon any deeper examination that there is an active, probably superhuman, real honest-to-goodness Federation influence at work, not some holdover remnant.

As I said, Nimue in all her instantiations really is doing nothing to hide her tracks from an investigator with access to Federation tech and a Federation mindset. It was never her plan to have to hide from that sort of investigator, and she has not acted in ways to foil that sort of investigator. Not that she probably could and still be successful.

Joat42 wrote:

jgnfld wrote:True enough. But when it became clear that a PICA or 2 must be involved--and it would be clear to a Federation citizen/AI pretty quickly upon examination of events, I would think a query to the records re. PICAs would be in order. Unless the person was totally incompetent.

How would it become clear that PICAs are involved? Maybe someone is using leftover fedtech and a closer examination will show no evidence of PICAs. Also, any records checked will show that no PICAs was on the colonization fleet. And the PICA Nimue is using was built by Owl which means there is even less evidence.

Why should anyone suddenly start looking for PICAs because Safehold suddenly "took a right turn"?

I don't really understand your reasoning.

SWM wrote:If it is one or more archangels (in whatever form), it may be hard for them to remember Nimue.

Recall that Nimue was just a mid-level naval officer. She was nothing special. She got transferred away from the colony ships very early in the cruise, and died. That was before the colony administrators spent decades in transit to Safehold, and decades more terraforming the planet, and hundreds of years living on Safehold. Even if the returned archangel is merely a recording, it will presumably be a recording from late in the archangel's life. Is that person going to remember some minor person who died hundreds of years ago in subjective memory?

Now, the memory might be jogged if Nimue exhibits Federation tech. But I doubt that just the face would trigger a memory, unless it was someone Nimue worked closely with. Nimue has an advantage--her subjective memory of seeing the colony administrators is only a few years old.

Well, it appears that Nimue worked very closely with the most senior command staff, or at least the Peis and Proctor. Remember, she was having dinner with the fleet commander the night before departure, and had been specifically requested by said commander. Further, she volunteered for the distraction fleet, with associated certain death in the near future, rather than continue on with the colony fleet - the one chance for a long lifespan. That certainly would have gotten notice amongst many of the colony command staff and crew. So while she was mid ranked, she was in the inner circle of the command staff.

Your point about it being 100 plus years for the command staff is well taken, though I suspect it would be the reconfiguration of her appearance that would really cause a problem.

jgnfld wrote:1. The sudden introduction of clear analogues of devices from Earth's history.

Most of which have clearly documented paper trails, or have plausible explanations of how they came to be.

2. The lack of extended technological wrong turns/dead ends, particularly in the Empire of Charis.

Probably the most concerning regarding the existence of something, but not a PICA. If anything, it would infer the existence of something like the Brethren - a group or cabal who escaped from Alexandria - because that's an event that was unambiguously tied to the retention of forbidden technology.

3. The unerring intelligence coups that keep appearing to happen.

Which is heavily offset by many demonstrable intelligence failures, such as the Sword of Schueler, the Rakurai, and the series of events that led up to Lock Island's death.

4. The stories of a super soldier with incredibly fast reflexes.

Merlin hasn't engaged in hand to hand combat since BHD, and even then the two instances were breaking Windshare's cavalry (which required no use major use of his superhuman abilities, and what little there was can be attributed to warped perceptions in combat), and his rescue of Sharley (in which case everyone involved is dead or part of the inner circle). There's just very little substantiation to the very distorted rumors which traveled from Charis to the Temple Lands.

5. Stories of multiple super soldiers in multiple places who just happen to provide accidental coordination for the Empire of Charis.

For one, what stories of multiple super soldiers in multiple places? Very few people even know that a seijin is wandering around in the first place - it's primarily army commanders and their staff who know to keep their mouths shut.

Second of all, whenever Merlin shows up to discuss things with said army commander, he's hardly flashing a "I'm a super soldier" sign around. He shows up, talks, and leaves. Merlin's appearances in different personas were hard enough for Nynian, and she was actively investigating him. For random soldiers out in the field who don't know to look out for seijins? They're not going to tell stories about something they don't know about to begin with.

6. Several assassinations much better explained by access to advanced tech.

Such as? I can only think of Dialydd Mab's retaliatory strike for Sarkyn, and that was exquisitely planned to prevent accusations of demonic intervention.

7. (Consulting the OBS records) Sudden appearance of anomalous heat sources on remote islands.

That presumes the OBS bothers to record things to begin with. It also presumes that it cares enough to want to record heat sources on an island, instead of disregarding it as volcanic activity, marooned sailors, or the like.

8. (Consulting OBS records) Numerous flights by archangelic vehicles.

Merlin's recon skimmer is heavily stealthed, and is much less noticeable than the regular air cars the Archangels were using.

9. SNARC observations of the bodyguards seemingly at the centre of all the above.

Now that would certainly be a problem, but if things have progressed to that point, the jig is up anyways, regardless if said Archangel determines Merlin is a PICA or not.

Possibly. You and others have your opinion. I simply do not see how a Federation person--that is one raised in the Federation culture totally knowledgable about what tech can and cannot do--would not see clear, active Federation influence including superhuman influence upon embarking on any deep analysis with AI and SNARC help. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think it would take Nero Wolfe to see a strange pattern here in the confluence of all these factors.

Duckk wrote:

jgnfld wrote:1. The sudden introduction of clear analogues of devices from Earth's history.

Most of which have clearly documented paper trails, or have plausible explanations of how they came to be.

2. The lack of extended technological wrong turns/dead ends, particularly in the Empire of Charis.

Probably the most concerning regarding the existence of something, but not a PICA. If anything, it would infer the existence of something like the Brethren - a group or cabal who escaped from Alexandria - because that's an event that was unambiguously tied to the retention of forbidden technology.

3. The unerring intelligence coups that keep appearing to happen.

Which is heavily offset by many demonstrable intelligence failures, such as the Sword of Schueler, the Rakurai, and the series of events that led up to Lock Island's death.

4. The stories of a super soldier with incredibly fast reflexes.

Merlin hasn't engaged in hand to hand combat since BHD, and even then the two instances were breaking Windshare's cavalry (which required no use major use of his superhuman abilities, and what little there was can be attributed to warped perceptions in combat), and his rescue of Sharley (in which case everyone involved is dead or part of the inner circle). There's just very little substantiation to the very distorted rumors which traveled from Charis to the Temple Lands.

5. Stories of multiple super soldiers in multiple places who just happen to provide accidental coordination for the Empire of Charis.

For one, what stories of multiple super soldiers in multiple places? Very few people even know that a seijin is wandering around in the first place - it's primarily army commanders and their staff who know to keep their mouths shut.

Second of all, whenever Merlin shows up to discuss things with said army commander, he's hardly flashing a "I'm a super soldier" sign around. He shows up, talks, and leaves. Merlin's appearances in different personas were hard enough for Nynian, and she was actively investigating him. For random soldiers out in the field who don't know to look out for seijins? They're not going to tell stories about something they don't know about to begin with.

6. Several assassinations much better explained by access to advanced tech.

Such as? I can only think of Dialydd Mab's retaliatory strike for Sarkyn, and that was exquisitely planned to prevent accusations of demonic intervention.

7. (Consulting the OBS records) Sudden appearance of anomalous heat sources on remote islands.

That presumes the OBS bothers to record things to begin with. It also presumes that it cares enough to want to record heat sources on an island, instead of disregarding it as volcanic activity, marooned sailors, or the like.

8. (Consulting OBS records) Numerous flights by archangelic vehicles.

Merlin's recon skimmer is heavily stealthed, and is much less noticeable than the regular air cars the Archangels were using.

9. SNARC observations of the bodyguards seemingly at the centre of all the above.

Now that would certainly be a problem, but if things have progressed to that point, the jig is up anyways, regardless if said Archangel determines Merlin is a PICA or not.

jgnfld wrote:My reasoning would be as follows:

1. The sudden introduction of clear analogues of devices from Earth's history.
A lot of the stuff is actually just a continuation of tech and devices already present on Safehold, I would say this point isn't as clearcut as you believe.
2. The lack of extended technological wrong turns/dead ends, particularly in the Empire of Charis.
See above, but also this is not an indication of PICAs; it's an indication that they possibly had access to information explaining things.
3. The unerring intelligence coups that keep appearing to happen.
And Nynian (and SSK) managed that without any technological help what so ever. And for all the vaunted "intelligence coups" they couldn't stop some bombs going off here and there. Still no evidence of PICAs or federation tech, just a very good intelligence organization.
4. The stories of a super soldier with incredibly fast reflexes.
Stories... How much of the stories are truth and fiction? Stories tend to change a lot in the telling. And the stories is about a "demon" according to the Go4. Connecting stories about demons with PICAs is a stretch.
5. Stories of multiple super soldiers in multiple places who just happen to provide accidental coordination for the Empire of Charis.
What? Multiple and coordinating? Where did that come from? As far as ANYONE know except the inner circle there is no coordination going on, AND most of it is done by the inner circle together with Owl AND they take great pains no too seem to be infallible. Still no evidence for PICAs.
6. Several assassinations much better explained by access to advanced tech.
As far as I know there is nothing particular about those which one or more competent assassins couldn't do, which Nynian amply demonstrated.
7. (Consulting the OBS records) Sudden appearance of anomalous heat sources on remote islands.
Inconclusive, the heat sources can have been anything. This also posits that the OBS keep the logs for 30 years about events that don't trigger it.
8. (Consulting OBS records) Numerous flights by archangelic vehicles.
You mean the stealthed recon skimmer?
9. SNARC observations of the bodyguards seemingly at the centre of all the above.
What SNARC observations??? Do you posit that there are currently SNARCs whizzing around Safehold documenting everything that's going on and they are especially targeting Merlin and Nynian?

and any number of other anomalies.
Anomalies happens. It's when something unusual doesn't happen when you should look closer (see Law of very large numbers), as someone said: "It's a very unusual day when something unusual doesn't happen at all."

It simply would leap out to a competent member of the Federation--and this fleet was staffed by the most competent remaining people available--that there is a Federation influence at work. Sure, other hypotheses would have to be crossed off, but it would leap out as well upon any deeper examination that there is an active, probably superhuman, real honest-to-goodness Federation influence at work, not some holdover remnant.

As I said, Nimue in all her instantiations really is doing nothing to hide her tracks from an investigator with access to Federation tech and a Federation mindset. It was never her plan to have to hide from that sort of investigator, and she has not acted in ways to foil that sort of investigator. Not that she probably could and still be successful.

No, it wouldn't leap out that there are PICAs running around. What can be inferred is that there is someone around that probably has access to federation tech, that's it. That someone may well be a native Safeholdian that has access to for example a computer with a learning package is an entirely possible explanation, it can be descendants from the original crew that have kept the knowledge and tech alive generation by generation.

There are at least 30 years (if remember correctly) until the return and their first thought will be "WTF happened?" and they will have a LOT of information to sift through to make sense on what happened and most of it will probably be written on paper. Sending out investigators is not an option since they don't have the manpower for it. If they get the chance to do anything at all because in 30 years the war is probably over and when they go to Zion they most likely will stunned and restrained and then questioned. Thats if the return involves corporeal people at all, otherwise by that time any secrets in Zion has probably been uncovered already.

You assume that by the time the return happens Safehold is at the same state as it is now which will not be true.

SWM wrote: Nimue has an advantage--her subjective memory of seeing the colony administrators is only a few years old.

Not so. The recording loaded into Nimue's PICA was made before she got involved with Operation Ark, so she never met any of the command crew.

InvisibleBison wrote:

SWM wrote: Nimue has an advantage--her subjective memory of seeing the colony administrators is only a few years old.

Not so. The recording loaded into Nimue's PICA was made before she got involved with Operation Ark, so she never met any of the command crew.

Oh, good point.