Carl wrote:I doubt the analyst is the only source of information for that. Right now he has to establish his credentials and that means giving good solid and confirmable information. that's something else the analyst has to worry about, he's not the only source for information. The SLN has several different intelligence agencies, military and civilian. The SL Marines have their own and they will likely be seeing a different picture. The Ministries have their own, as does the civilian intelligence agencies. The MAlign does not and cannot control them all. As we have seen in AAC, there are lower level analysts and people who are twigging on the truth. So the MAign analyst has to be giving information that others can confirm. The best he can do though is steer perceptions, which is his job I think. To shape for his superiors see things without changing the information he gives them.
Frontier Fleet has always been understrength. The SLN will be commissioning hundreds of BCs, for home defense and raiding fleets. They can replace battlecruisers a lot faster than superdreadnaughts. Which is actually smart. It's about the only thing the SL and SLN can do to Manticore that has a good chance of hurting them. In that, the idea is a solid one even if it weakens FF somewhat.
Apart from this i'd also point out that whilst he's making recommendations. Those recommendations are being listened to on the SL side. the Sollies are going to go doing this.
More importantly it is a good solid sound recommendation for both sides.
Also all the two sides have to do is require anyone they do business with to impose the same "don;t trade with the other guy or get cut off policy), on their trading partners and so on and so forth. Not that we've seen enough evidence for them to play pass the parcel like that but that's a separate point.
Remember also that both sides have explicitly stated at various points that merchant shipping is a valid target in war and that both sides are out to destroy each other as nation states, thinners just trying to stop the other side from kicking the other by getting the to surrender, they're going for the kill here.
Re: mesan mole. He doesn't necessarily have to have any covert agenda to "weaken" FF, he only needs to establish himself as a credible analyst.
His analysis was actually on target and a bit more accurate in terms of ultimate outcomes than the analysis which has so far come from Wodolawsi/Quartermain, in that they were still not able to appreciate the damage/effect of Lacöon. They are both too close to the problem, and some of the leftover, residual attitude that comes of being the most important people in the galaxy is going to keep them from fully appreciating what will happen.
And despite the readers knowing what is happening, the SL leadership is not so well informed. They are months from Saltash, which is even farther from them than New Tuscany. So they DON"T KNOW (yet, and so far as we have read about) about that little incident. The last time they discussed events, Kolokoltsov was carefully not mentioning either the Zunker Incident, or the Nolan Incident; later, he withholds information from his fellow Mandarins regarding the possibility of Beowulf's neighbors also holding referenda on secession. The Mandarins do NOT share all their information-- they are true bureaucrats in this. You move up when your rivals step on it.
Also, even when they do share their data, the other Mandarins don't necessarily pay attention. Here, I will remind you that "Agata and I have been telling you and telling you" . . . and none of the non-financial-sector Mandarins had bothered to read their analysese.
I want to thank the poster above who included RFC's comments on the SL finance system. What I think some posters are forgetting is that the "dispatch boat" communications system, and the vast and unpatrolable "ocean" of hyperspace, puts both SEM and SL in a position where they simply can't interdict trade and smuggling. You are dealing with a communications network similar to the 1700s.
But that is ok; each side wants to recruit nuetrals to be "nuetral" in their favor. In the Verge, and to some extent in the Shell, where system governments may have recent recollection of the beneficence of OFS and the agencies of Interior, Trade, and Treasury, there may well be some covert support for the GA--as long as they can keep it sufficiently hidden not to warrant direct Solarian retaliation. But the Sollies ought to be smart enough not to retaliate--they want those systems to eventually fully rejoin the SL as members. And if the GA eventually stalls, they would regain any systems lost without messy, military actions against their own members.
I think this is a major point: the SL members who are borderline, with neither the military might to affect any outcome, or the financial clout to affect the course of events, are the battleground. The battle won't be military, because both the GA and the SL will recognize the need to woo these systems into their camp. Too heavy-handed a reaction from the League, and all of them jump ship; better to let smuggling slide--after all, it means moving freight.
And the Verge will be lost to the League in the short run; they will realize that very soon; the real struggle will be political, not military, for the support of the independents (and any League members that want independence). This is likely to be where Beowulf becomes the biggest player in the game, because of all of its "trade representatives."
To insert a political note, thinking the League can act as a unified State may be over-optimistic. It is obviously how the SLN looks at it; but any League is an association of states. It is no different in organiztion than a confederation, or a "treaty organization" like NATO or the Warsaw Pact. Of the Mandarins, only Kolokoltsov seems to remember that; Kingsford's new financial advisor said much the same thing, if the people he was briefing were smart enough to see it (they did seem to be).
Regards, and thanks for all the interest.
Rob