Lacöon I

kzt wrote:

SWM wrote:You suggest that the League would shut that down? They can't. Without that market, the economy would collapse. The corporations would certainly not stand for the interstellar financial market being shut down. For that matter, the League members wouldn't stand for it being shut down. Most system governments in the League probably buy and sell bonds and treasury notes. And the League cannot control who eventually owns stocks and bonds that get sold through the regional markets, several buyers down the line.

The US retaliates severely against banks that deal with various countries that the USG is not fond of. This results in lots problems for those banks, as losing access to the entire US market means you need to be making a whole lot of money funding the Mulahs' nuke program. So they usually don't.

So, you are suggesting that the League will tell every regional financial market in foreign systems to stop doing business with Manticore, on threat of losing access to the Solarian market? Do you think that those regional financial markets will listen to the League, when the Manticoran market is even bigger than the League market, and access to the wormhole network is critical to their business? And don't forget that at any given time there will be quite a bit of Solarian financial instruments already flowing through those regional markets. If the League closes access to the regional markets, those instruments cannot get back into the League.

If the League carries out a threat to block the regional markets from the League, they are just cutting off their own nose. The League needs those markets more than those markets need the League.

SWM wrote:I am not saying that Manticorans have access to Solarian sellers, or that Solarians have access to Manticoran sellers. I am saying that Manticorans have access to markets (in Manticore and in other third-party systems) where third parties buy and sell financial instruments, and Solarians have access to markets (in the League and in other third-party systems) where third parties buy and sell financial instruments. Those financial instruments get bought and sold all over, with specific instruments moving from one marketplace to another, one intermediary to another. Some Solarian instruments eventually end up in the Manticoran market. Some Manticoran instruments eventually end up in the Solarian market. Some Manticoran instruments owned by Solarians get sold, and move from buyer to buyer, and some of those will eventually get back to the Manticoran market. And vice versa.

The interstellar financial market has not closed. Direct connections (and especially physical trade) between Manticore and the League has been shut down. But the wormhole network is still open to third parties, and the regional financial network is still operating. Financial instruments are still moving through the galactic market--bits and bytes that travel on dispatch boats. Manticoran, Solarian, and third party financial marketers are still traveling to the third party regional marketplaces. Stocks and bonds are still being bought and sold.

You suggest that the League would shut that down? They can't. Without that market, the economy would collapse. The corporations would certainly not stand for the interstellar financial market being shut down. For that matter, the League members wouldn't stand for it being shut down. Most system governments in the League probably buy and sell bonds and treasury notes. And the League cannot control who eventually owns stocks and bonds that get sold through the regional markets, several buyers down the line.

Ok. I understand your position a bit better now. I think that is possible, but very unlikely. You mention in the last paragraph about corps and worlds not standing having the financial markets shut down/cut off from Manticore, and in that you might have a point -if- the Solarian League had an actual representative government. It doesn't. It's a government run by the Ministries which make the laws and rules and regs that govern interstellar travel and commerce. It's those ministries that make all of the real decisions in the SL and I do think they have cut off Manticore from the SL.

I also think that Manticore itself has cut off access to the SLs financial markets. Why? Precisely because it will hurt the SL economy. Remember the SEM/GA wants the SL to crumble and break apart. Letting interstellar finances continue to flow would mean they might survive intact longer. Both sides here are hurting, the SL more because the SEM was the one that had the ships to move the commerce. That's what's really hurting the SL economy, a lack of ships. Nothing it moving.

Everything I've read suggests that's the logical action and I'm sure any and all Manty corporate holdings in the SL are being nationalized/confiscated by the local/federal authorities. That's the logical step to take.

It's also in both sides interests to cut off the financial markets precisely because they don't want the other side messing with their own financial systems. I think it could very well survive the loss of the Manticore banks and financial systems, and I think that the leadership in the SL, the corp heads and financial experts that deal with finances/banking are realizing exactly how much they did depend upon Manticore, and I think the next logical step would be to make sure they aren't that dependent ever again. And that since the central banks are controlled by the Ministries, they have the authority to sever any connections between the SL and SEM/GA and punish any corp that tries to buck it.

you also seem to think that the SEM banks/financial reach is absolutely critical to the SL. It isn't. It's one sector, one that the SL couldn't control, but I don;t think it's so large and powerful that the entire SL financial system will collapse if its cut off. Will it be hurt? Yes, but it would survive if given time to recuperate.

SWM wrote:

kzt wrote:The US retaliates severely against banks that deal with various countries that the USG is not fond of. This results in lots problems for those banks, as losing access to the entire US market means you need to be making a whole lot of money funding the Mulahs' nuke program. So they usually don't.

So, you are suggesting that the League will tell every regional financial market in foreign systems to stop doing business with Manticore, on threat of losing access to the Solarian market? Do you think that those regional financial markets will listen to the League, when the Manticoran market is even bigger than the League market, and access to the wormhole network is critical to their business? And don't forget that at any given time there will be quite a bit of Solarian financial instruments already flowing through those regional markets. If the League closes access to the regional markets, those instruments cannot get back into the League.

If the League carries out a threat to block the regional markets from the League, they are just cutting off their own nose. The League needs those markets more than those markets need the League.

Yes. If those corps and institutions want to do business in the SL they will have to. Who controls the permits, the licensing, who gets taxed, the rules and regulations? The Ministries. If the corps want to survive, they will have to decide who they want to snuggle up to and if the price is worth it if they buck the system.

I don't think it was ever stated that the Manticore market was ever bigger than the entire League market. It isn't. It never has been and it still isn't projected to ever be larger than the League market. The GA market/economy will be in 15-20 years, but not the SEM unless the SEM grows to encompass a LOT more worlds.

"In the long run well all be dead" is true but I suspect the corps and banks would like to have a long run to worry about. Which they won't if the league decides to nuke them. They might win the case on appeal, but how much good did that do Arthur Anderson?

THe more money the alliance costs the companies, the more they will lean on the navy to take action, even if they cant do anything worthwhile. So the companies might activly interfere in the navy and the government, working against or even with the system causing a new level of conflict.

Yes the SL is not a democracy. But why makes you think that the Transstellars pay any more attention to the government than they have to? Bet most of them have a few banks. And are facing catastrophic losses if they don't do something. Supporting the Mandarins if they are obviously on their way down probably comes pretty low on their priorities.

Zakharra wrote: Ok. I understand your position a bit better now. I think that is possible, but very unlikely. You mention in the last paragraph about corps and worlds not standing having the financial markets shut down/cut off from Manticore, and in that you might have a point -if- the Solarian League had an actual representative government. It doesn't. It's a government run by the Ministries which make the laws and rules and regs that govern interstellar travel and commerce. It's those ministries that make all of the real decisions in the SL and I do think they have cut off Manticore from the SL.

I also think that Manticore itself has cut off access to the SLs financial markets. Why? Precisely because it will hurt the SL economy. Remember the SEM/GA wants the SL to crumble and break apart. Letting interstellar finances continue to flow would mean they might survive intact longer. Both sides here are hurting, the SL more because the SEM was the one that had the ships to move the commerce. That's what's really hurting the SL economy, a lack of ships. Nothing it moving.

I'm surprised that nobody has suggested (or seems to be engaged) in insider trading on the non-manticore securities markets.

Someone selling Manticore War Bonds short (and any other bonds that would be affected by Lacoon I or II.) Manticore War Bonds are bound to tank along with other Manticoran securities as soon as Lacoon becomes known, so it should be possible for "unscrupulous" traders to bankrupt anyone playing the markets -- like transtellars and Mandarins, forex.

I think there's a point here that's got lost in the cuffufle, (though it was raised).

As soon as Lacoon 2 hit this stopping being a simple economic pressure exercise and became all out war. You don't do any kind of business with an enemy in that situation, because it will probably help them more than hurt them. Likewise you don't let anyone your doing business with do business with your enemies and so on and so forth. Anyone who want's to do business with manticore at this point is going to have to agree to not do it with the sollie's, or to allow their intermediaries to do so on pain of being cut out of the manticorian market. What the transtellers and the like in the SL space isn't going to matter worth a damm because they'e going to find it virtually impossible to find anyone they can do business with who's doing business with manticore.

Basically everyone who's not pat of the SL is going to be given a choice by Manticore. "Us or Them". Manticore would be dumb to do anything else.

Carl wrote:I think there's a point here that's got lost in the cuffufle, (though it was raised).

As soon as Lacoon 2 hit this stopping being a simple economic pressure exercise and became all out war. You don't do any kind of business with an enemy in that situation, because it will probably help them more than hurt them. Likewise you don't let anyone your doing business with do business with your enemies and so on and so forth. Anyone who want's to do business with manticore at this point is going to have to agree to not do it with the sollie's, or to allow their intermediaries to do so on pain of being cut out of the manticorian market. What the transtellers and the like in the SL space isn't going to matter worth a damm because they'e going to find it virtually impossible to find anyone they can do business with who's doing business with manticore.

Basically everyone who's not pat of the SL is going to be given a choice by Manticore. "Us or Them". Manticore would be dumb to do anything else.

The problem with trying to do that is you've got all these (little) neutral 3rd parties and unless you cut off trade without anyone who isn't a pretty firm ally it's almost impossible to block the flow the trade back to your enemy.

Sure you can blackball neutral #1 if they trade directly with your enemy, but they'll trade with neutral #2, who might trade with neutral #3 who will finally trade with a SL world or shipping line. In WWI and II simple geography was able to help the Allies largely choke of neutral trade to their enemies because they largely surrounded them and so the war situation allowed them to pretty effectively blockage shipments.

But they had to actively blockade trade to Germany. They'd have had almost no luck preventing it with economic sanctions or black listing if a safe reliable trade route had existed. (Neutral Sweden traded with Germany throughout WWII because they could easily ship ore across the Baltic. The only reason they weren't a major reshipment point was that outside trade largely couldn't get to them)

The problem with trying to do that is you've got all these (little) neutral 3rd parties and unless you cut off trade without anyone who isn't a pretty firm ally it's almost impossible to block the flow the trade back to your enemy.

Sure you can blackball neutral #1 if they trade directly with your enemy, but they'll trade with neutral #2, who might trade with neutral #3 who will finally trade with a SL world or shipping line. In WWI and II simple geography was able to help the Allies largely choke of neutral trade to their enemies because they largely surrounded them and so the war situation allowed them to pretty effectively blockage shipments.

But they had to actively blockade trade to Germany. They'd have had almost no luck preventing it with economic sanctions or black listing if a safe reliable trade route had existed. (Neutral Sweden traded with Germany throughout WWII because they could easily ship ore across the Baltic. The only reason they weren't a major reshipment point was that outside trade largely couldn't get to them)

If they do that kind of trade and the people your trading with don't blacklist them for it, yuo blacklist the person in question.

What your talking about is the equivalent in the WW's of the allies shipping out some manufactured goods for trade, then having multiple intermediary countries play pass the parcel to the axis powers. If you think they would have stood for that i can only laugh. Certainly a blockade offered a simpler solution than messing with the alternatives but i don't believe they wouldn't have resorted to active commerce raiding, even outright invasion if the country was small enough to stop such trade. As others have pointed out the west has shown that we can today do this without military force just by having appropriate laws for who our own businesses can deal with.

You also might want to go back and read the back end of ART. Kingsford and his analyst make it clear that the SLN thinks the best strategy is to raid Manticores commerce, including neutral's that switch sides. Obviously given his messan connection we can't assume the analysts conclusions about the GA's returning the favor are 100% true, but i don't see any reason they wouldn't or shouldn't either. Basically you can limit your business to anything that doesn't help the SL/GA or you can get pounded flat, only the GA once it gets missile production moving again will be able to make that stick a lot more of the time.

Carl wrote:

The problem with trying to do that is you've got all these (little) neutral 3rd parties and unless you cut off trade without anyone who isn't a pretty firm ally it's almost impossible to block the flow the trade back to your enemy.

Sure you can blackball neutral #1 if they trade directly with your enemy, but they'll trade with neutral #2, who might trade with neutral #3 who will finally trade with a SL world or shipping line. In WWI and II simple geography was able to help the Allies largely choke of neutral trade to their enemies because they largely surrounded them and so the war situation allowed them to pretty effectively blockage shipments.

But they had to actively blockade trade to Germany. They'd have had almost no luck preventing it with economic sanctions or black listing if a safe reliable trade route had existed. (Neutral Sweden traded with Germany throughout WWII because they could easily ship ore across the Baltic. The only reason they weren't a major reshipment point was that outside trade largely couldn't get to them)

If they do that kind of trade and the people your trading with don't blacklist them for it, yuo blacklist the person in question.

What your talking about is the equivalent in the WW's of the allies shipping out some manufactured goods for trade, then having multiple intermediary countries play pass the parcel to the axis powers. If you think they would have stood for that i can only laugh. Certainly a blockade offered a simpler solution than messing with the alternatives but i don't believe they wouldn't have resorted to active commerce raiding, even outright invasion if the country was small enough to stop such trade. As others have pointed out the west has shown that we can today do this without military force just by having appropriate laws for who our own businesses can deal with.

You also might want to go back and read the back end of ART. Kingsford and his analyst make it clear that the SLN thinks the best strategy is to raid Manticores commerce, including neutral's that switch sides. Obviously given his messan connection we can't assume the analysts conclusions about the GA's returning the favor are 100% true, but i don't see any reason they wouldn't or shouldn't either. Basically you can limit your business to anything that doesn't help the SL/GA or you can get pounded flat, only the GA once it gets missile production moving again will be able to make that stick a lot more of the time.

That almost immediately escalates to simply cutting off your own trade to any actual neutrals.

You can't control who buys the goods from a shipments once it hits the markets of the first neutral planet or station. Sure you can crack down on a shipping line that blatantly ships directly from you to your enemy. But goods being sold to neutrals that eventually get resold to your enemies are hard to track (much harder than today here on Earth) and you can't cut off the final leg (the only one that touches your enemy) because they don't do any firsthand trade with you. You likely can't even cut off the planet or station that sold it to them because they aren't doing much first hand business with you.

So you have to cut off the planets/stations/lines that trade with them. Then those that trade with those that trade with them. And pretty soon you can't trade with anybody who would resell to anybody outside your own little (or not so little) alliance.