SPOILER: LaMA ans Snippet #7 : MISSING the ELEPHANT

Howdy Everybody!

There are times when I think all of us fans are idiots, while RFC sniggers in his beer over what we've all missed, just like the crew of the 'Bad Penny'; like we're all head down, busily focused on sifting for precious nuggets with the whole Comstock Lode mountain in front of us.

I just woke up and it hit me.

Snippet #7 has been out for just over a week with 17 pages of posts with days more to go until #8 [a plea for another snippet], and LaMA for over 6 month's, and all of us have missed perhaps the most obvious glaring flare lit elephant in the room I can imagine, yet its been right there in front of us, just like the KH VII's redesigns.

We all saw it but didn't recognise it, so I'm now sharing my reaction to "Surprise is something you've seen all along and didn't recognise what it really meant", which has been a mantra of RFC's writing for at least 20 years.

From Snippet #7 we know the Dohlaran court knows why the AoS failed, though the Desnari still might not have a clue, especially if Traykos is anything like Harless, Hennet and Hankey.

Aside: So my "Father Sulyvyn's Reports" suggestion is redundant, except as a summary.

Thus if Dohlar knows, the Go4 know.

The IDA screwed up its logistics again; the AoJ was doomed from the moment Duke Traykos refused Duchairn's offer to supply the AoJ.

Aside: Why wasn't Traykos overridden?

Magwair's negotiations with Harchong indicate the CoGA cannot dictate everything to the major continental powers, which happen to be Harchong and Desnar, which wasn't the way things were 6 years ago, but I digress.

*The intelligence failure of not seeing EHM's AoCP etc, is wholly Clyntahn's.*

Will Duchairn and Magwair accuse him of incompetence?

Or at least ask him what happened?

Will Clyntahn, knowing they're going to probe, attempt Duchairn's assassination?

Thereby triggering Rhobair's coup?

Is this what Nynian is concerned about?

I doubt it, since none of her reports have indicated to us she's getting direct inside details of Go4 discussions from one of the Go4.

Sorry for the digressions, but these questions have to be dealt with; now getting back to the crux of things:

*Did Clyntahn hold back what he knew about EHM and his convoy?*

Why?

Why was the size of DE's army and Hanth's attack out of Thesmar surprises as well?

Nynian predicted and Merlin fully confirmed wyverns were already on their way to report Symkyn's arrival at the beginning of September, so EHM's mid-October arrival in the largest convoy ever seen on Safehold was somehow missed or overlooked?

It has been suggested in posts regarding previous books that Clyntahn was playing a much deeper game, actually helping Charis by being so bad and ruthless, which I then didn't believe.

However, this little faux pas demands an explanation of some sort.

The Shiloh TL's may not have had messenger wyverns, though they should have, but lots of other TL's should have noticed EHM's 2000+ mile canal journey, even if it wasn't towed by the ironclads at Siddar City, being 4-5 times the size of DE's from Glacierheart.

Were Merlin, Nahrmahn and OWL totally effective in zapping every messenger wyvern along the way?

Did they even try?

I'd expect the likely wyvern terminus would be Dairnyth, less than 1500 miles from Fort Tairys, all of Shiloh
Province being less than 2000 miles from Dairnyth, even Siddar City being only 26-2700 miles.

On another side note, why didn't the Go4 help Tymplar more?

They should have known the AoJ was in trouble in October, given the contrast and increasing discrepancy between Father Sulyvyn Fyrmyn's and Father Tymythy Yairdyn's reports, Sulyvyn's from the field and Tymythy's mainly from Harless's HQ, which should have warned them of the abyss ahead.

Did they just hope for the best?

That assumes Clyntahn wasn't withholding or considerably editing their reports from the rest of the Go4.

If so, the bill is coming due.

Again the obvious failure point in the intelligence is Clyntahn.

Magwair knew Clyntahn was withholding critical information back in September, but nothing like this I suspect.

I can't see him avoiding Rayno's intelligence briefings, like a certain elected CIC frequently does, so what other explanations can you all come up with?

While Zion evidently gets snowed in in October, semaphore communications remain busy; so it's not a commo black out unless the Charisian agents inserted along the network somehow managed to filter out all messages pertaining to EHM, DE's and Hanth's reinforcements.

If Zhaspahr Clyntahn is withholding vital information from the rest of the Go4, that got a Go4 army destroyed, wouldn't Rayno somehow pass the intel along?

Granted Rayno is terrified of Clyntahn, and his likely reaction [ie assassins if not the full punishment if they take him alive] but is his loyalty strictly to Clyntahn alone?

Does he truly believe in the CoGA's divine mission or God any more?

I'd imagine if he passed it along, he'd arrange a suitable cover explanation.

So again, why would Clyntahn sabotage the CoGA, or at least the AoS?

Is he trying to put the CoGA wholly in the pocket of the Harchong?

Has that been his plan all along, thinking the MHoGatA will conquer all before them?

Will he then crack up when they fail?

Is there another cabal that knows the CoGA is false, or did Clyntahn stumble over some information held by the Inquisition, in the GI's office itself, that revealed the archangels were really men, and rather flawed to boot, or something near that?

Something that kept previous GI's much more careful and circumspect?

Something the Wylsynn's already knew?

Perhaps he's a descendent of a mistress of Chihiro, who also kept a journal of all the archangels quirks, foibles and failings?

These and other questions await us in our journey through these delightful snippets.

Thanks again, RFC.

L

PS: I wish I could access and change my signature since April isn't the soonest we can expect HFQ.

Lyonheart,

You hit at least one thing in that flurry.

Clyntahn is sure that the Harchong Army will save the day.

Is he willing to sacrifice every other army along the way? Why, yes, yes he is. Of all the mainland realms, which one does Clyntahn love? Harchong, because they don't ask questions, they obey. The aristocracy is fallow, shallow, and lazy. The bureaucrats who actually run things are corrupt and uber-responsive to the CoGA that allows/condones their powers. The peasants/serfs/slaves are compliant and, like many slave peoples in the past, willing to have faith that the 'next life' will have rewards for the toil and suffering here.

What's not to love for a megalomaniac - well, at least one on the top of the heap? Add in a willingness to flat-out condone murder by authorities (textev from the Corisandian spy) and absolute submission to the Inquisition and why shouldn't Clyntahn go for the whole burrito? After the MHoGatA clears out the stain in Siddarmark (and takes over in the old-fashioned 'all your women are ours now' way) he'll be able to clear out those 'failures and faithless ones' and replace them with Harchong-born loyalists.

Now to disagree.

The long march could have been observed. It was likely not, however, for a few good reasons.

One. The area has been marched over by at least one other (if not more) armies. If there's food here, it is well hidden or still on the hoof/wing. Two. No civilian population to hide the spy in (ref one). Three. There's a working cavalry screen, preventing scouts/spies from getting close enough to observe the army on the move - different from previous expeditions of marines and armed seamen.

And why did they miss the whole landing of the follow-on force? IIRC, the new arrivals landed at the largely abandoned part of the docks - and many didn't go far before re-shipping for other ports. Second on that one is that the spy network 'knows' that there's an EOC army in Siddar City. I've been on that side of the line, watching someone build up, and for a low-level source it's hard to tell the difference between one unit and others - and since they're being careful of the billeting (for discipline reasons, not counter-intel, but it works for both) no one spy is going to see more than a single group/battalion or so in their area. Too much background noise for a low-tech intel gathering system to tell the difference in force size once you're past about five thousand. (Reminds me of the joke about how orks count - one, more than one, lots, lots and lots, zoggin' lots, and too zoggin' many)

Anyhow, the limitations on collection and transmission are there, along with a healthy dose of 'not what the boss wants to hear'. And that second applies to people UNDER Rayno, not just Rayno who has admitted 'managing' and 'timing' intel updates to Clyntahn.

Just my two bits.
Dave
[edited once for error]

Wow, dear, that's a lot of conclusions to take on at once. Anyway, good points.

The IDA screwed up its logistics again; the AoJ was doomed from the moment Duke Traykos refused Duchairn's offer to supply the AoJ.
Aside: Why wasn't Traykos overridden?

Option 1 is that CoGA simply didn't know about it. I'm not sure if Alvarez wrote home about this failed attempt. If he did - he might, as he complained a lot in this letters - it's unsure whether his bosses passed it on to the Temple. It doesn't look very well if one (more reluctant) member of holy war complains about another (far more eager to fight).
Option 2 is that Magwair (is it the right name? I mean military commander of Go4) didn't know about it. More likely than not, all Alvarez's reports went through the hands of Inquisition. Clyntahn wouldn't recognize logistic problems if they introduced themselves, so he might've dismissed Alvarez's pleads as unnecessary complaints along the lines of I-want-to-be-in-charge-why-Desnairans-must-be-in-charge-bweee!

Will Duchairn and Magwair accuse him (Clyntahn) of incompetence?
Or at least ask him what happened?

Unlikely. Everybody is scared dead of GI, so they won't confront him directly. Chatting about it in the halls, on the other hand... yeah, that would happen, which renders your next question... interesting.

But do they even know that something like that has happened? Even we, the readers, noticed (or, rather, only you noticed) that very late, and we have the "outsiders" position and see most of what's happening.

Lazalarlives' points regarding all the rest are, IMO, completely right.

--
Edited once to avoid confusion.

Kakai wrote:

Will Duchairn and Magwair accuse him (Clyntahn) of incompetence?
Or at least ask him what happened?

Unlikely. Everybody is scared dead of GI, so they won't confront him directly. Chatting about it in the halls, on the other hand... yeah, that would happen, which renders your next question... interesting.

Everyone is scared of Clyntahn because of his command of the Inquisition. But if the Inquisition starts to doubt his competence, things could get ... interesting.

InvisibleBison wrote:Everyone is scared of Clyntahn because of his command of the Inquisition. But if the Inquisition starts to doubt his competence, things could get ... interesting.

We weren't given any clues that Inquisitors start to doubt Clyntahn's cause (we can't call it Church's cause, not any more), but you are, of course, right.

So many ways for things to get interesting!

InvisibleBison wrote:

Everyone is scared of Clyntahn because of his command of the Inquisition. But if the Inquisition starts to doubt his competence, things could get ... interesting.

I keep returning to something runsforcelery wrote. He wrote:

If anything is going to undermine Clyntahn's authority with the faithful, it's going to be the realization that he's acting in his own self-interest and not in the interest of Mother Church.

Of course, runsforcelery was referring to the Temple Loyalists at the time, but if it's permissible to include the Inquisition amongst the faithful, then I have to wonder about Aivah's desired quick trip to Zion and back. Aivah wants to make wearing the Grand Inquisitor's cap uncomfortable. The realization that Clyntahn is acting in his own self-interest will undermine Clyntahn's authority with the faithful. Aivah has copies of all of those files that went with Madam Dennys to Charis. Those files almost certainly include evidence that Clyntahn has acted in his own self-interest. I keep putting these things together, and they fit in all sorts of interesting ways.

~Tonto

I don't think we can presume that all of he intel was going through the GI's office. IIRC, some of what was being developed in Siddar City was being directed to forces in the field, probably to the intendant. I would also presume that the intendant would forward copies of what he got on to Zion.

Don

Hi Dave,

I'll try interpolating again with **.

Lazalarlives wrote:Lyonheart,

You hit at least one thing in that flurry.

**
Yes, it was quite a shock, but I tried to run done most of the threads, yet no one is really tackling the questions about Clyntahn.**.

Clyntahn is sure that the Harchong Army will save the day.

**You may well be right in what he believes, but having to break up his unbeatable army to replace the AoG etc [some of whose relatives may want him to answer for their losses] may compel him to review how many other things have gone wrong, and consider his options if [when] it fails, which will be interesting to watch.**

Is he willing to sacrifice every other army along the way? Why, yes, yes he is. Of all the mainland realms, which one does Clyntahn love? Harchong, because they don't ask questions, they obey. The aristocracy is fallow, shallow, and lazy. The bureaucrats who actually run things are corrupt and uber-responsive to the CoGA that allows/condones their powers. The peasants/serfs/slaves are compliant and, like many slave peoples in the past, willing to have faith that the 'next life' will have rewards for the toil and suffering here.

What's not to love for a megalomaniac - well, at least one on the top of the heap? Add in a willingness to flat-out condone murder by authorities (textev from the Corisandian spy) and absolute submission to the Inquisition and why shouldn't Clyntahn go for the whole burrito? After the MHoGatA clears out the stain in Siddarmark (and takes over in the old-fashioned 'all your women are ours now' way) he'll be able to clear out those 'failures and faithless ones' and replace them with Harchong-born loyalists.

**Handing everything over to Harchong seems far too pat, I don't believe he'd like being so dependent upon the North Harchongese, especially being surrounded by them, to the east and west in your scenario.**

Now to disagree.

The long march could have been observed. It was likely not, however, for a few good reasons.

One. The area has been marched over by at least one other (if not more) armies. If there's food here, it is well hidden or still on the hoof/wing. Two. No civilian population to hide the spy in (ref one). Three. There's a working cavalry screen, preventing scouts/spies from getting close enough to observe the army on the move - different from previous expeditions of marines and armed seamen.

**I'm referring to EHM's travel by barge from Siddar City 2000 miles past Fort St Klair, down past the Branath's, before going overland; taking 40-50 days over a route not marched over and swept of all food and humanity but now relatively secure in which spies like at SC can hide quite easily, while the cavalry screen was only needed the last 100-200 miles.

So there were plenty of people along the canal route to see this huge force, with plenty of time to get it to a messenger wyvern that headed west.**

And why did they miss the whole landing of the follow-on force? IIRC, the new arrivals landed at the largely abandoned part of the docks - and many didn't go far before re-shipping for other ports. Second on that one is that the spy network 'knows' that there's an EOC army in Siddar City. I've been on that side of the line, watching someone build up, and for a low-level source it's hard to tell the difference between one unit and others - and since they're being careful of the billeting (for discipline reasons, not counter-intel, but it works for both) no one spy is going to see more than a single group/battalion or so in their area. Too much background noise for a low-tech intel gathering system to tell the difference in force size once you're past about five thousand. (Reminds me of the joke about how orks count - one, more than one, lots, lots and lots, zoggin' lots, and too zoggin' many)

**They landed at the main Harbor and were going to all march through the city; it was too cold to greet them at the piers but they were definitely going to welcome them and celebrate their sheer numbers.

A battalion of ~1000 men is quite different from 200,000 men, an army has quite different feel than such a single relatively small unit.

As a young army brat, I felt differently about different posts according to the number of combat troops they had; I didn't need to be told how many were on post to know there was a big difference between a battalion, a brigade or division or corps.

Can tricks be played?

Certainly, but the sheer scale involved means something's going to leak.

Given how important the news is, multiple wyverns were probably used; at least some should have got through.**

Anyhow, the limitations on collection and transmission are there, along with a healthy dose of 'not what the boss wants to hear'. And that second applies to people UNDER Rayno, not just Rayno who has admitted 'managing' and 'timing' intel updates to Clyntahn.

**How or why would Rayno 'manage' not to tell him something this important?

They've been expecting the rest of the ICA, here it is and Rayno is not going to tell him? FOR TWO MONTH'S?

And then only after it destroys a Go4 army of 200,000 men?

Is Rayno the failure point in the intel collection?

Again, why?

Or is this where Rayno simply says "OOPS"?

If it is, trust me, its not going to turn out as well as it did for Shannon.

Granted the inquisition's numbers for the ICA have been off by at least 200,000 or so already, and we don't know who or why its still so wrong, except Clyntahn is supposed to be in charge of collecting intel although we know the other Go4 members have their own sources of information, if not as broad as the inquisition's.

Both bosses may not want to hear bad news, but its the staff's duty to collect it and see it gets to where it must be used.

My dad was the 24th Division's artillery HQ battery CO for the first part of the Korean war, when all the veteran noncoms of the Battle of the Bulge at Div-arty HQ were shaking their heads at the map and at MacArthur's insistence the Chicoms weren't coming over the border, even when Chi-Com army POW's were captured before their 'surprise' attack.

A very serious case of 'not seeing what you didn't want to see'.

When my father went back to Japan, he joined MacArthur's staff and time doesn't permit repeating stories I've posted here before, but whether it was MacArthur or Ridgeway my father served, the staff had to tell them the truth if it expected them to have any chance of making the right decision.

Serving a megalomaniac like Clyntahn would be very trying, but we have no evidence he or Rayno have ever had a staffer killed for doing their job, especially telling them the unpalatable truth, indeed Rayno seems to have benefited in many ways because Clyntahn expects him to tell him things he doesn't want to hear.

From all the evidence Rayno expects his staff not only to do the same, but reward them as well when it is especially difficult to bear.

Just as Rayno has managed Clyntahn on occasion, Rayno's staff knows after all these years how to manage their boss if necessary to get him to tell Clyntahn what they know he needs to know, however much it will upset him.

Reporting the arrival of EHM shouldn't have upset Zhaspahr since it was expected, but delaying telling him every day would make it increasingly far worse when they did.

That kind of trepidation awaiting the eventual anticipated avalanche would have been a great subplot in LaMA.

The fact we didn't see it implies its not the explanation we seek.

So while Clyntahn may expect the MHoGatA to win everything anyway, and thus he set up the AoS, I don't believe that's what we've seen in his thoughts in October regarding how things were that we read in LaMA [October, chapter 2] etc.

So its still something else.
**

Just my two bits.
Dave
[edited once for error]

The questions remain, the quest continues.

L

Hi Don,

Quite right Wyrshym was receiving wyverns directly from Siddar City, so he should have got accurate direct reports and passed them along.

He certainly wouldn't have held them up when they confirmed Magwair's orders to hold fast.

The Go4 know everything Ahlverez wrote home, they now know he was right almost every time.

Somebody who opposed his arguments needs to be punished in some way.

Will the rest of the Go4 now insist all intel must now be shared between them before its edited for the rest of the vicarate?

Interesting times, people.

L

n7axw wrote:I don't think we can presume that all of he intel was going through the GI's office. IIRC, some of what was being developed in Siddar City was being directed to forces in the field, probably to the intendant. I would also presume that the intendant would forward copies of what he got on to Zion.

Don

Hi Tonto Silerheels,

Kudos for the excellent points!

If the TL's realized Clyntahn was undercutting them in favor of his own interests, it could indeed be quite a sea change.

Revealing Clyntahn's past corruption would be self serving at this point, but we have posted here before regarding what would be the Antietam moment for the alliance to publish all the data the circle collected.

Will that day be when the MHoGatA is defeated and nothing stands between Zion, the temple and the complete wreck of the CoGA?

L

Tonto Silerheels wrote:InvisibleBison wrote:

Everyone is scared of Clyntahn because of his command of the Inquisition. But if the Inquisition starts to doubt his competence, things could get ... interesting.

I keep returning to something runsforcelery wrote. He wrote:

If anything is going to undermine Clyntahn's authority with the faithful, it's going to be the realization that he's acting in his own self-interest and not in the interest of Mother Church.

Of course, runsforcelery was referring to the Temple Loyalists at the time, but if it's permissible to include the Inquisition amongst the faithful, then I have to wonder about Aivah's desired quick trip to Zion and back. Aivah wants to make wearing the Grand Inquisitor's cap uncomfortable. The realization that Clyntahn is acting in his own self-interest will undermine Clyntahn's authority with the faithful. Aivah has copies of all of those files that went with Madam Dennys to Charis. Those files almost certainly include evidence that Clyntahn has acted in his own self-interest. I keep putting these things together, and they fit in all sorts of interesting ways.

~Tonto