Thesmar

Hi McGuiness,

We have no textev where exactly the MHoGatA was heading, they were mainly marching through Malansath, evidently to the Langhorne Canal via the Bedard, which is where they still are, ie not that far north at all.

They were month's away from beginning to travel on the Langhorne when the GCR struck, so it was a matter of where they were going to winter, stuck freezing in the north or someplace where they had time to prepare.

Further comments bounded by ** below.

McGuiness wrote:

Aethor wrote:Also, the Harchong army was coming from behind, so perhaps Harless thought that he might as well leave that tough nut for them to crack their teeth on...

The Harchongese were headed NORTH on the Holy Langhorne when the Great Canal Raid forced Duchairn to leave them in the southern border states, and unfortunately, get quite a lot of rifles for them, as well as Temple guardsmen to train them so that they'll be less like cannon fodder. Unfortunately they'll still be like a swarm of locusts wherever they might be if their supply lines are cut, and a bit hard on the local population as Duchairn pointed out, especially the local population's daughters.

BGV will have to deal with them, or perhaps some will be diverted southward toward Cliff Peak and Glacierheart where an even warmer greeting than DE gave Kaitswyrth is waiting for them. They could continue to ship them south towards Thesmar, assuming that CoGA forces still control the Daivyn River by that time, but it's going to take a long time for any Harchongese to get to Thesmar by barge, and the ironclads will make sure they have to walk from the first set of locks on the Sheridan river.

**Taking the route you suggest via the Daivyn river, is far too time consuming when simply marching directly would be quicker, or taking the Sabana river then marching to Dairnyth then going by barge to Thesmar.

Marching to Dairnyth then by barge to Thesmar would mean facing the ironclads, though so far we know of only one, the Delthak there, so was the other lost in the storm?

If a sub army of the IHA/MHoGatA had been intended to stay south and take Thesmar, we should have already seen it detached and dispatched; we haven't, now they need a whole army group to replace the AoS and soon Rychtyr's.**

It might be quicker to march them overland to Selyk in West March, but that's about 500-600 miles in country where they can't forage, plus all the locals are supposed to be "friendlies," although the outrage the average TL father would feel after his his wife and daughters have been "visited" by the Harchongese as they pass by - for several five-days would probably be enough to turn Clyntahn into a raving Reformist!

The easiest solution if Magwair wants Harchongese troops attacking Thesmar is to barge them back to the Gulf of Dohlar and ship them to Dairnyth, and then on the Dairnyth - Alyksberg canal, then south until they run into Charisian and/or Siddarmarkan forces. There's just one little complication in trying that - in a few months the ironclad Rottweilers and the fleet accompanying them will be more than happy to sink any transport ships they find, and the Bay of Bess will be a Charisian lake for all practical purposes.

**That may be obviously true now, but not when the Harchong Thesmar force should have been sent.

So far, Rock Point indicates Sharpfield won't be going that far east for some time, until the KH VII's arrive, ie August at the soonest, so the Go4 still have some 6 month's to operate in the Bay of Bess, plenty of time to convoy quite a number of Harchong through if they choose.**

Thirsk may think he can sally with his fleet now that he has exploding shells, and he would do tremendous damage to any ICN flotilla he managed to gang up on at better than 2-1 odds, and those odds are required since the ICN fires much bigger shells. The Rottweilers also out-range anything afloat at the moment, although the poor accuracy of firing at ships on a heaving ocean reduces that advantage quite a bit. But they fire BIG shells, so half a dozen hits (or less) from them would toast any of Thirsk's ships. No ship of the ICN will ever surrender again either, so it will broadsides, boarding pikes, swords, boots to the groin, and teeth until every single Charisian is dead. The new pistols would be quite useful in boarding actions...

**Evidently the RDN under Thirsk has been downsized already to provide troops for the RDA, so his assumed fleet of 77+ war galleons may be only half manned, making him equal to Sharpfield, but only if both remain concentrated, and perhaps only that if Admiral Rohsail's squadron wasn't caught and destroyed piecemeal.

Explosive shells make the one who hits first far more likely to survive, but since the ICN's 30 pounder shells are much more powerful than the RDN's 25 pounder size that weighs about 15 pounds with barely a pound of gun powder, their hits will tell far faster and far sooner, if there is an major engagement, which I doubt.**

Thesmar is likely to be the launching point for the eventual invasion of western Dohlar, or at the very least to send dragoons to constantly blow the locks on the Sheryl - Sheridahn canal and cut off the supply lines to Evrytyn, which will give the Dohlarans currently dug in there no option but to retreat, even if Alvarez gets there without being caught and having his surviving troops decimated. The ironclads will cut off the lower end of the Sheridahn river, so any attack of Thesmar is going to require a long walk. If the ironclads can get into Lake Somyr, they'll drop the bridge over the Somyr river and play havoc with any further Desnairan ventures northward.

**Evrytyn is over 400 miles from Thesmar, a bit far for the average cavalry raid to expect success, NTM Hanth still doesn't have dragoons in the first place, unless the September convoy went to Thesmar, in which case Hanth shouldn't still be in command, or overall command of up to 80,000+ men when he's a marine colonel by experience.**

Frankly, considering the high number of nobles who died when the AoS was destroyed, there's going to be some serious political repercussions back in Desnair, and it may be out of the war in Siddarmark. Considering the fun the ICN is currently having in the Gulf of Jahras with a little guidance from "Merlin's spies," along with Dohlar's refusal to give Desnair's troops landing rights or to carry them in its own (soon to be sunk) transport ships makes moving troops and supplies from Desnair to Siddarmark extremely difficult It's highly unlikely that Desnair will be able to field another army the size of the AoS again.

**Quite right regarding the political ramifications of so many aristocrat sons not returning home unless they're ransomed which i don't see happening, at least officially, as noted here previously.

The IDA is quite large given a population of 148 million with lots of serfs to keep down, but sparing another army now and paying to modernize it when Desnar is dependent on CoGA charity despite its gold mines is doubtful.

Given that the IDA infantry were created solely because the CoGA paid for them, the RDA is unlikely to be able to pay for fresh infantry regiments even if they were the most effective combat units the IDA had, despite only a third having rifles.**

That being the case, the Salthar canal is likely to be very high on Charis' wish list. Cutting 20,000 miles off the voyage to supply its fleet in the Gulf of Dohlar would be a gift from the Archangels. Literally! Thanks for building it Shan-wei!

** I think the canal would save something closer to 14,000 miles and a couple month's for supplies.**

I can't wait for the Haarahld VIIs to arrive in Gorath Bay! Wanna lay bets on whether King Ronnie escapes? Will Thirsk jump sides if his family is rescued from the tender mercies of the Inquisition? Will he surrender what remains of his fleet when he's confronted by the Haarahld VIIs, which will be able to run down and destroy anything Thirsk has, while his ships can't even dent them!

**Given how things are going here in March, will the KH VII's be needed in August?**

Good times. I can't wait to see how Clyntahn handles all the bad news. Maybe he'll finally have that stroke we've been expecting for a few years now.

[quote]**We might regret that, if he's not quite what he seems.**

L

n7axw wrote:Hi MacGuiness,

Taking the locks might be more possible than you think. In LAMA read about BVG's attack on Maiyam. Those locks were set with explosives but taken anyway. It would probably depend on being able to arrange a surprise. They are deep enough in enemy territory that the guard probably wouldn't be too heavy.

As for holding the canal, really what you would have to do is hold the locks and then convoy any stuff through with calvary on either bank. Other than the locks, the basic thing would be to put a blocking force in place to keep Desnair penned in Howard.

My only other comment to your post would be that most of what Harchong has is strung out up north along the Langhorne canal. They could probably raise more to relieve the Dohlarians, but how would they arm them? Only about have of what they have already raised is armed with anything you could conceivably take into combat against an Alliance army. Being unable to effectively equip their forces rather than raising more manpower is also the thing that will prevent Desnair from reentering the war.

Don

I wonder who's actually supplying security for the canal and locks? The IDA is (was) mostly cavalry with an institutional disdain for infantry and the jobs infantry does. It's possible that canal security was left to their Silkiahan 'allies' (as a sop to their sovereignty). After what happened up north, Desnair might not have much left to shore that up. If Silkiah is really looking for a way out then some discreet diplomacy followed by judicious application of Scout Snipers and Dragoons could give the Allies the canal cheaply.

jms

n7axw wrote:

Direwolf18 wrote:Desnair is going to have one last stand in Silkiah. And THEN they are out of the war.

A last stand? A last stand with what? They don't have anything left in Haven to make a last stand with. They've already lost their field army north of the Saltash Canal...

Dohlar, on the other hand, still has about 90,000 troops on their own turf. Teamed up with Ahlvarez's survivors, could number as high as 120,000 men. If they could arm and equip those men, that could still get dicey. We'll see.

Don

With the men and artillery they have entrenched already there to "secure" it, and their lines of communication and supply. How many men is not stated, but I imagine they could reinforce it with whatever they have left. They will probably need to, its always best to fight these kind of wars on some one else's property. I personally think that Desnair is being kept on hand to "protect" Silkiah as a second at hand Sword of Schueler to deal with any uppity Silkians.

How many men and guns are there is beyond more then I know. It has been speculated before though that the Imperial Desnairian army would probably have a comparable amount of men under arms to their historic rival and enemy Siddimark. Siddimark had what, 1.5 million regulars and another 3-4 million militia? He did a numbers breakdown at some point. Regardless, the assumption is that Desnair would have a ball park similiar army. Lets assume since they are Desnairians they are inherently stupid and incompetent and could only field a force about half the size of Siddimark's regulars that's 750k men. To be conservative I am also going to assume that their "militia" is at best non existent.

Their losses to date are what? 200 thousand men? Maybe 300 if we assume that they are incapable of training a navy and just looted the army for personnel. That is still like 450k men by some VERY conservative estimates that they still have under arms. That is also assuming they aren't training and recruiting follow on forces. Now how many rifles and cannons they have to supply said men is a totally different question. It's also worth noting that something like half their army that got roflstomped in Siddimark was cavalry, they seemed to have left more then a bit of infantry at home.

Direwolf18 wrote:
With the men and artillery they have entrenched already there to "secure" it, and their lines of communication and supply. How many men is not stated, but I imagine they could reinforce it with whatever they have left. They will probably need to, its always best to fight these kind of wars on some one else's property. I personally think that Desnair is being kept on hand to "protect" Silkiah as a second at hand Sword of Schueler to deal with any uppity Silkians.

How many men and guns are there is beyond more then I know. It has been speculated before though that the Imperial Desnairian army would probably have a comparable amount of men under arms to their historic rival and enemy Siddimark. Siddimark had what, 1.5 million regulars and another 3-4 million militia? He did a numbers breakdown at some point. Regardless, the assumption is that Desnair would have a ball park similiar army. Lets assume since they are Desnairians they are inherently stupid and incompetent and could only field a force about half the size of Siddimark's regulars that's 750k men. To be conservative I am also going to assume that their "militia" is at best non existent.

Their losses to date are what? 200 thousand men? Maybe 300 if we assume that they are incapable of training a navy and just looted the army for personnel. That is still like 450k men by some VERY conservative estimates that they still have under arms. That is also assuming they aren't training and recruiting follow on forces. Now how many rifles and cannons they have to supply said men is a totally different question. It's also worth noting that something like half their army that got roflstomped in Siddimark was cavalry, they seemed to have left more then a bit of infantry at home.

While I see nothing wrong with your estimates of the remaining numbers of Desnairian troops, there are two points I think you missed.

Firstly, it's not clear whether or not the Army of Justice had a disproportionate amount of cavalry compared to the IDA as a whole. On the one hand, the Desnairians are fairly contemptuous of infantry in general. On the other hand, there's a Desnairian cliche mentioned in LaMA - "Cavalry conquers, infantry occupies". Since we heard this on from the Army of Justice's infantry commander, it's plausible this could represent the Desnairian high command's thinking, which would suggest that the Army of Justice, which was tasked with conquest, would be cavalry heavy. So while it is possible that they "left more then a bit of infantry at home", it's by no means certain.

Secondly, and more critically, is the issue of equipment. While I don't have any evidence to support this, I suspect that Desnairians sent all the modern weapons they could provide with the Army of Justice. It wouldn't have occurred to them to retain enough rifles and artillery to equip an army for the defense of Desnair, both because of their arrogance leading them to never consider the possibility of defeat and because of the general Desnairian contempt for infantry.

So while the Desnairians may have a sizeable number of trained troops left, it's unclear what proportion is infantry and what proportion is the nearly-useless-agaisnt-Charisians cavalry Desnairians love so well, and it's virtually certain that their infantry has at most a smattering of modern weapons.

Direwolf18 wrote
Their losses to date are what? 200 thousand men? Maybe 300 if we assume that they are incapable of training a navy and just looted the army for personnel. That is still like 450k men by some VERY conservative estimates that they still have under arms.

Absolutely agree that they've still got an army. How well armed and led are the questions.

Hi Direwolf18,

The IDA didn't have much artillery as Harless confessed to Ahlverez before Thesmar.

I've suggested it might have had only 7 regiments or 168 cannon for the whole AoJ, while the RDA had 10-11 including one of 'angle guns' for 240-264 and a total of 408 to 432 to begin with.

Their respective reinforcements might have added another regiment for the IDA and probably 2 for the RDA, for up to 72 more, evidently all of them lost.

The Desnari cannon are suspect but the RSA will definitely put the ex-RDA's to good use, since we don't know what their cannon production rate is.

Getting back to Silkiah, I doubt the cannon shy IDA would 'waste' scarce cannon to defend the canal locks especially the western set when they are already so short of what they need.

We have no numbers for the Desnari occupation force, but if they treated Silkians the way they treated Siddarmark TL's, the alliance may have plenty of local allies when they take the canals and the country.

Given Silkiah was 'demilitarized' almost 30 years ago, ie no organised army etc, the occupation force may have been pretty small to start with, and the population kept quiet to avoid drawing attention to themselves regardless of their strong feelings, the Desnari police force might be minimal, perhaps an infantry company at the locks and other important public works, like the Thesmar canal and a regiment in the towns and cities etc, while the CoGA is probably recruiting local TL militia as backup, though all Silkiah's rifle production is currently going to the MHoGatA.

The RSA regular army numbered only 1.2 million [less than 1% of the population] while the militia was 1.8 million for 3 million total, and some RFC posts imply it was that small by order of the temple.

The Desnari population of 148 million is only ~14% larger, for a possible active force of less than 1.7 million, though there are hints it may be much less despite needing to police a huge empire.

I have previously posted the AoJ was probably mainly drawn from the northern provinces, and regenerating replacements there will make defending and or fortifying Silkiah even more difficult in the near term.

Your figure of 450-550,000 is quite possible, though I imagine they are already stretched to control duty areas up to 50% larger than before the AoJ left.

The IDA preference for being almost wholly cavalry, probably for the psychological advantage against serfs on foot, is the primary reason the temple had to pay Desnar to create or increase the number of its infantry regiments, and also explains why they are so poorly supervised; with less than a third of the NCO's and officers of the cavalry regiments barely 2% larger.

I believe the AoJ's ~2-1 ratio of cavalry to infantry would have been higher if the Desnari could have gotten away with it, to reflect their preferences at home.

So I don't think there's much infantry in the IDA left at the moment.

Although if they get cut off by Duchairn for being incompetent, they may not be able to afford much more cavalry and have to settle for infantry.

Unfortunately their infantry regiments only had enough rifles for a third, smooth-bores and matchlocks for a sixth, and arbalests and bows for the remaining half; so facing the ICA on an open battlefield where the ICA range advantages would dominate would require far more IDA infantry regiments than the sheer numbers might suggest.

L

Direwolf18 wrote:*quote="n7axw"*[quote="Direwolf18"]Desnair is going to have one last stand in Silkiah. And THEN they are out of the war.*quote*

A last stand? A last stand with what? They don't have anything left in Haven to make a last stand with. They've already lost their field army north of the Saltash Canal...

Dohlar, on the other hand, still has about 90,000 troops on their own turf. Teamed up with Ahlvarez's survivors, could number as high as 120,000 men. If they could arm and equip those men, that could still get dicey. We'll see.

Don

With the men and artillery they have entrenched already there to "secure" it, and their lines of communication and supply. How many men is not stated, but I imagine they could reinforce it with whatever they have left. They will probably need to, its always best to fight these kind of wars on some one else's property. I personally think that Desnair is being kept on hand to "protect" Silkiah as a second at hand Sword of Schueler to deal with any uppity Silkians.

How many men and guns are there is beyond more then I know. It has been speculated before though that the Imperial Desnairian army would probably have a comparable amount of men under arms to their historic rival and enemy Siddimark. Siddimark had what, 1.5 million regulars and another 3-4 million militia? He did a numbers breakdown at some point. Regardless, the assumption is that Desnair would have a ball park similiar army. Lets assume since they are Desnairians they are inherently stupid and incompetent and could only field a force about half the size of Siddimark's regulars that's 750k men. To be conservative I am also going to assume that their "militia" is at best non existent.

Their losses to date are what? 200 thousand men? Maybe 300 if we assume that they are incapable of training a navy and just looted the army for personnel. That is still like 450k men by some VERY conservative estimates that they still have under arms. That is also assuming they aren't training and recruiting follow on forces. Now how many rifles and cannons they have to supply said men is a totally different question. It's also worth noting that something like half their army that got roflstomped in Siddimark was cavalry, they seemed to have left more then a bit of infantry at home.[/quote]

Hi Direwolf18,

Thanks for an interesting post. I'm not aware that they had forces north of the Saltash Canal other than the AOJ. In fact, Silkiah was demilitarized prior to the war and arrangements had to be made by the church with Silkiah to get the AOJ across into Siddarmark. Silkiah's demiltarized status was changed for the Jihad.

Your numbers for the Desnairian Army are interesting and I think reasonable. I would only comment that given their attitude toward infantry, I doubt that they had many under arms prior to the current unpleasantness. IIRC, the church pretty much had to specify that they send a certain number of infantry or else they would only have sent calvary.

My comment was intended to imply that the AOJ certainly wasn't going to be making any last stands since the AOJ is gone. Now whether or not the move additional troops into Silkiah to do some last standing would depend on what they've managed to learn and absorb the lesson about what happened to Harless. They certainly cannot arm an army capable of going toe to toe with the EOC at this time. So if they are smart enough to understand what happened, they will stay out of the way. Otherwise they might make the attempt.

The other factor is that DE seems to be moving quickly on the heels of the Dohlarians, judging from the last snippet. If they want to make a respectable last stand, they are going to have to move more quickly than Harless did or the party will have passed them by.

Don

Hi Don,

Quite right.

We have textev that Desnar must now send everything by ship via the canal because the ICN has effectively blockaded the only high road from Desnar to Silkiah in Northwatch Province on the west coast of the Gulf of Jahras, so I doubt very much is being sent at present.

If Desnar tries to 'fort up' on the Silkian frontier with the republic, it will only mean more troops will be lost when the canal and Silk Town are taken behind them.

Given that DE is closer to the border than most of the Desnari occupation force if its concentrated as far south as Silk Town, there are limits on how many could get there in time to be out foxed, out maneuvered and forced to surrender as Rychtyr might if he doesn't retreat fast enough.

Again I agree; I don't see any evidence they've learned what they and Harless did wrong, so no chance to avoid his mistakes.

L

n7axw wrote:Hi Direwolf18,

Thanks for an interesting post. I'm not aware that they had forces north of the Saltash Canal other than the AOJ. In fact, Silkiah was demilitarized prior to the war and arrangements had to be made by the church with Silkiah to get the AOJ across into Siddarmark. Silkiah's demiltarized status was changed for the Jihad.

Your numbers for the Desnairian Army are interesting and I think reasonable. I would only comment that given their attitude toward infantry, I doubt that they had many under arms prior to the current unpleasantness. IIRC, the church pretty much had to specify that they send a certain number of infantry or else they would only have sent calvary.

My comment was intended to imply that the AOJ certainly wasn't going to be making any last stands since the AOJ is gone. Now whether or not the move additional troops into Silkiah to do some last standing would depend on what they've managed to learn and absorb the lesson about what happened to Harless. They certainly cannot arm an army capable of going toe to toe with the EOC at this time. So if they are smart enough to understand what happened, they will stay out of the way. Otherwise they might make the attempt.

The other factor is that DE seems to be moving quickly on the heels of the Dohlarians, judging from the last snippet. If they want to make a respectable last stand, they are going to have to move more quickly than Harless did or the party will have passed them by.

Don

Oh I absolutely agree that the Desnairian army is going to be poorly equipped, although not totally weaponless. They will have a significant amount of time to re-arm to an extent. Granted they suck at the whole manufacturing thing but even still.

I however think they will send most of what they do have left in terms of modern equipment to hold the Allies at Silkiah. There will be the battle that is the final blow for them in the war. Another decisive defeat, and this time they lose their historic dominance of Silkiah in the process will be the true breaking point for them.

They get one more swing, and it probably won't be a particularly good one.

As much as the desnair forces want to get home, there has to be some kind of river crossing, which can be watched for. THe same for the canal that links into dohlar. It would allow them to position forces at the key sites, best able to do damage to retreating and returning troops.