Lacöon I

When the Mesan agent financial reporter gave the New Tuscany "data" to Audrey O'Hanrahan, he was going to be covering the story for the financial press. I think the expected result was supposed to be the sudden loss of value of Manticoran financial instruments and stocks in the face of the likely Solarian demands for compensation/ or impending military clash.

When the Mandarins are discussing the situation viz. trade and logistics, they don't ever mention the financial services Manticore provides; the text does indicated that Manticore continues to allow dispatch boats carrying diplomats, financial data, and newsies, to continue using the junction.

It occurred to me that the Hauptman Cartel and others may have made a killing buying Manticoran government and corporate bonds back from Solarian investors during the brief period when the local solarian press was pushing strongly for the SLN to take action in the face of "Manticoran Aggression" and to avenge Byng.

Also, I wonder how much business the closure of the wormhole network is making for Manticoran dispatch services? After all, they are still processing financial transactions; maybe the banking system is still using the Bank of Manticore as a main data hub? If so, the majority of Sollies are unaware of it-- but the Mandarins are not so blessedly ignorant.

Rob

What happens as far as people buying up Manticorian governmental paper (debt) when the Solly press started to hammer at Manticore depends a lot on who would be doing the buying. Fluctuations don't have to be in the billions or even only millions of shares at the level you are talking about. All it takes is for some people to start dumping at whatever price they can get and the overall price and preceived value of the paper drops.
Somebody like Hauptman might have taken the opportunity to pick up paper but there are limits on how much anyone can buy at one time based on actual "cash" in hand or the ability to borrow or buy on margin.
The churning in the SL markets may not gotten much impact on the actual Manticoreian markets in terms of volume but the prices will have dropped.
The other question is how much they have -if they have- rebounded.

Anybody still able to transit the Manticore Wormhole System should be making money, a lot of it. At the 1st push, anybody who had something to deliver to receive was going to have to pay the new going rate from those who could use Manticore for transit. What they paid in (probably had to exchange for Manticore Dollars) is one thing.

Being able to afford the increase in price is another. Of course you might not really be able to afford the rise on what is now outstanding (your contracts are going to have limits on things like shipping costs) but NOT delivering will carry serious problems.
That includes insurance problems, late/non-delivery penalties and general reputation problems.

All those Dispatch Boats operating on corporate or private companies which can use the system are going to be much busier. Remember, just because the owners of the documents/transferes might be SL, the ships are not being stopped and searched for ownership of what they are transporting. Data chips and Money Transfer chips will stiff flow along with low volume/high value materials.
Also remember that much of that financial traffic electronic and you can store an awful lot of transfers in the "for client" memory banks of your average Dispatch Boat. Need more, perhaps a couple of cubic meters of space could be devoted to the Honververse equevelent of flash drives in locked "strongboxes".

Manticore's big problem (other than the Alignment and the SLN/SL bureaucracy) is rebuilding both its orbital production capacity and volume of traffic to regain -amoung other things- the cash flow to support all the new costs and replacement of industries and military infrastructure.

The Hauptman Cartel lost their entire ship building division. They lost all their scheduled routes into to SL. They lost all their delivery runs into Manti space as they have no product to ship. I believe they were also an insurance company, how big do you think the payout to revenue ratio was that month?

So they are going to be bailing like mad, as they have a desperate cash flow problem. If they can make it to the other side they are fine, but they are very much not fine right now.

Anyone who is not Manticorian -- those ships were recalled -- or Solarian League -- those ships are banned -- and owns a freighter has an incredible commercial opportunity.

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:When the Mesan agent financial reporter gave the New Tuscany "data" to Audrey O'Hanrahan, he was going to be covering the story for the financial press. I think the expected result was supposed to be the sudden loss of value of Manticoran financial instruments and stocks in the face of the likely Solarian demands for compensation/ or impending military clash.

When the Mandarins are discussing the situation viz. trade and logistics, they don't ever mention the financial services Manticore provides; the text does indicated that Manticore continues to allow dispatch boats carrying diplomats, financial data, and newsies, to continue using the junction.

Well, the handover of the New Tuscany data and financial implications why have led some in the "know" to short-sell Manticore-stocks before it went public expecting the stocks to become almost worthless. If they did, it kind of backfired but they probably made a lot of money when they later covered the stocks cheap anyway.

On the other side, I don't think there is a massive amount of Manticoran stocks and financial services being used in the core Solarian financial systems since most Solarians still have the attitude of "those neo-barbs" regarding Manticore. My guess is that most of the stocks/services are traded/used in the systems that regularly trade directly with Manticore and their trade partners.

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:It occurred to me that the Hauptman Cartel and others may have made a killing buying Manticoran government and corporate bonds back from Solarian investors during the brief period when the local solarian press was pushing strongly for the SLN to take action in the face of "Manticoran Aggression" and to avenge Byng.

Also, I wonder how much business the closure of the wormhole network is making for Manticoran dispatch services? After all, they are still processing financial transactions; maybe the banking system is still using the Bank of Manticore as a main data hub? If so, the majority of Sollies are unaware of it-- but the Mandarins are not so blessedly ignorant.

Rob

It's entirely possible the Cartel did that and more but I think we are in the dark here until we get some textev what's going on.

I don't think any amount income from the dispatch services will compare with what they lost in junction fees and trade they got from Solarian traffic. We know that the Mandarins actually at the time didn't have a clue on what the repercussions would be since their whole thinking was that Manticore is a small time star nation they can swat whenever they like and we all know how that turned out. I'm sure the Mandarins are aware of that some banks are still using Manticoran dispatch services, but there is really nothing they can do about it. If they try to forbid it the banks are just going to use a third party as a middle man.

Joat42 wrote:

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:When the Mesan agent financial reporter gave the New Tuscany "data" to Audrey O'Hanrahan, he was going to be covering the story for the financial press. I think the expected result was supposed to be the sudden loss of value of Manticoran financial instruments and stocks in the face of the likely Solarian demands for compensation/ or impending military clash.

When the Mandarins are discussing the situation viz. trade and logistics, they don't ever mention the financial services Manticore provides; the text does indicated that Manticore continues to allow dispatch boats carrying diplomats, financial data, and newsies, to continue using the junction.

Well, the handover of the New Tuscany data and financial implications why have led some in the "know" to short-sell Manticore-stocks before it went public expecting the stocks to become almost worthless. If they did, it kind of backfired but they probably made a lot of money when they later covered the stocks cheap anyway.

On the other side, I don't think there is a massive amount of Manticoran stocks and financial services being used in the core Solarian financial systems since most Solarians still have the attitude of "those neo-barbs" regarding Manticore. My guess is that most of the stocks/services are traded/used in the systems that regularly trade directly with Manticore and their trade partners.

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:It occurred to me that the Hauptman Cartel and others may have made a killing buying Manticoran government and corporate bonds back from Solarian investors during the brief period when the local solarian press was pushing strongly for the SLN to take action in the face of "Manticoran Aggression" and to avenge Byng.

Also, I wonder how much business the closure of the wormhole network is making for Manticoran dispatch services? After all, they are still processing financial transactions; maybe the banking system is still using the Bank of Manticore as a main data hub? If so, the majority of Sollies are unaware of it-- but the Mandarins are not so blessedly ignorant.

Rob

It's entirely possible the Cartel did that and more but I think we are in the dark here until we get some textev what's going on.

I don't think any amount income from the dispatch services will compare with what they lost in junction fees and trade they got from Solarian traffic. We know that the Mandarins actually at the time didn't have a clue on what the repercussions would be since their whole thinking was that Manticore is a small time star nation they can swat whenever they like and we all know how that turned out. I'm sure the Mandarins are aware of that some banks are still using Manticoran dispatch services, but there is really nothing they can do about it. If they try to forbid it the banks are just going to use a third party as a middle man.

I'm not sure the Hauptman cartel would be able to do business in the SL so it can buy back Manty and corp bonds from the SL investors. Certainly not after Lacoon 1. When the Manticoran merchant fleets were recalled and the wormhole junction was cut off to all Solarian traffic, the SEM also cut its own financial ties to the SL. The Hauptman Cartel wouldn;t have access to SL space to do any buying unless it was willing to disobey the SEM government and navy which was ordering -all- Manticoran ships out of SL space ASAP. The one RMN captain put his career on the line just to let that one ship captain make a delivery before she headed back to Manticore, so I seriously doubt they'd be letting even HC ships into SL space to buy back any government bonds or corporate stock SL corporations/individuals might have. In all likelihood, those bonds and stocks became so much worthless paper after Lacoon 1, let along Lacoon 2.

Zakharra wrote: I'm not sure the Hauptman cartel would be able to do business in the SL so it can buy back Manty and corp bonds from the SL investors. Certainly not after Lacoon 1. When the Manticoran merchant fleets were recalled and the wormhole junction was cut off to all Solarian traffic, the SEM also cut its own financial ties to the SL. The Hauptman Cartel wouldn;t have access to SL space to do any buying unless it was willing to disobey the SEM government and navy which was ordering -all- Manticoran ships out of SL space ASAP. The one RMN captain put his career on the line just to let that one ship captain make a delivery before she headed back to Manticore, so I seriously doubt they'd be letting even HC ships into SL space to buy back any government bonds or corporate stock SL corporations/individuals might have. In all likelihood, those bonds and stocks became so much worthless paper after Lacoon 1, let along Lacoon 2.

Hauptmann would not necessarily have to leave Manticoran space to buy bonds. These kinds of interstellar transactions are carried out all the time through brokers. Courier boats carrying interstellar financial transactions have not been halted. The financial market is still running--and Manticore has long been a central node for the interstellar financial market. A Manticoran merchant does not have to travel across the galaxy to buy stocks and bonds. There is a thriving market on Manticore itself in such financial instruments, buying and selling interests in bodies scattered across all of explored space.

On an unrelated note, I wonder what will happen to the interstellar financial market once word gets out to the public that someone has a faster hyperdrive. Until such a drive becomes available to the financial news services, the mere existence of the Streak drive would catastrophically affect all futures markets. Whoever secretly owned such a drive would be able to manipulate the markets with foreknowledge, and every shift in the markets would be subject to speculation that someone knew something. The market would become unstable.

SWM wrote:

Zakharra wrote: I'm not sure the Hauptman cartel would be able to do business in the SL so it can buy back Manty and corp bonds from the SL investors. Certainly not after Lacoon 1. When the Manticoran merchant fleets were recalled and the wormhole junction was cut off to all Solarian traffic, the SEM also cut its own financial ties to the SL. The Hauptman Cartel wouldn;t have access to SL space to do any buying unless it was willing to disobey the SEM government and navy which was ordering -all- Manticoran ships out of SL space ASAP. The one RMN captain put his career on the line just to let that one ship captain make a delivery before she headed back to Manticore, so I seriously doubt they'd be letting even HC ships into SL space to buy back any government bonds or corporate stock SL corporations/individuals might have. In all likelihood, those bonds and stocks became so much worthless paper after Lacoon 1, let along Lacoon 2.

Hauptmann would not necessarily have to leave Manticoran space to buy bonds. These kinds of interstellar transactions are carried out all the time through brokers. Courier boats carrying interstellar financial transactions have not been halted. The financial market is still running--and Manticore has long been a central node for the interstellar financial market. A Manticoran merchant does not have to travel across the galaxy to buy stocks and bonds. There is a thriving market on Manticore itself in such financial instruments, buying and selling interests in bodies scattered across all of explored space.

Given that Lacoon 1 and 2, especially 2 involved the removal of all Manticoran vessels from SL space and the closure of the wormholes, I don't think the Manticore businesses are -allowed- to communicate with the SL corporations. Remember Lacoon 2 is to put the hurt on the SL economy and keep SL merchant shipping from using them. and that a lot of the SL worlds do blame the SEM for its troubles, so I'm not so sure that any Manticore corp would be well received in SL space at this time. I also think that the SEM government and intelligence agencies are keeping an eye on anyone trying that. Right now the SEM government bonds and Manty stock any SL people have would likely be considered worthless paper (or data). It has no real value anymore but to Manticore. Especially since the SL dollar/credit(?) is soon, very soon, going to be worthless as a currency

The SL financial sector would be moving to deal with having Manticore out of the loop by now since they have no idea how long the crisis will last. It's not operating in a vacuum doing nothing, but will be working, with the government and the trans-stellars to deal with the 'temporary' financial issue in a way that will be ;long term. I think that even the heads of the large corps and trans-stellars can now see the danger of relying so much on Manticore for transportation and financial means. It allowed a 'mere' neo-barb nation to put a serious hurt on the SL and if they have any intelligence, they'd be making plans to not allow -anyone- to have that level of control on their economy again. Even if it was only a temporary problem and business went back to normal, it would be a eye opening shock to see just how much influence Manticore really had/has on the SL economy.

If the league is shut out of hte wormhole network, will the independant shippers and minor space nations be attempting to get deals done with the alliance so at least their shipping gets to go through.
Manticore is famous for their trading fleet, they must have alsorts of commercial contacts, they can use that to help.

THe more the mess wit hte league economy, the more pressure will be placed on the league to take action, which will push the league to breaking.

Zakharra wrote:

SWM wrote:Hauptmann would not necessarily have to leave Manticoran space to buy bonds. These kinds of interstellar transactions are carried out all the time through brokers. Courier boats carrying interstellar financial transactions have not been halted. The financial market is still running--and Manticore has long been a central node for the interstellar financial market. A Manticoran merchant does not have to travel across the galaxy to buy stocks and bonds. There is a thriving market on Manticore itself in such financial instruments, buying and selling interests in bodies scattered across all of explored space.

Given that Lacoon 1 and 2, especially 2 involved the removal of all Manticoran vessels from SL space and the closure of the wormholes, I don't think the Manticore businesses are -allowed- to communicate with the SL corporations. Remember Lacoon 2 is to put the hurt on the SL economy and keep SL merchant shipping from using them. and that a lot of the SL worlds do blame the SEM for its troubles, so I'm not so sure that any Manticore corp would be well received in SL space at this time. I also think that the SEM government and intelligence agencies are keeping an eye on anyone trying that. Right now the SEM government bonds and Manty stock any SL people have would likely be considered worthless paper (or data). It has no real value anymore but to Manticore. Especially since the SL dollar/credit(?) is soon, very soon, going to be worthless as a currency

The SL financial sector would be moving to deal with having Manticore out of the loop by now since they have no idea how long the crisis will last. It's not operating in a vacuum doing nothing, but will be working, with the government and the trans-stellars to deal with the 'temporary' financial issue in a way that will be ;long term. I think that even the heads of the large corps and trans-stellars can now see the danger of relying so much on Manticore for transportation and financial means. It allowed a 'mere' neo-barb nation to put a serious hurt on the SL and if they have any intelligence, they'd be making plans to not allow -anyone- to have that level of control on their economy again. Even if it was only a temporary problem and business went back to normal, it would be a eye opening shock to see just how much influence Manticore really had/has on the SL economy.

Yes, Lacoon I involved the removal of Manticoran merchant ships from Solarian space; this was primarily to protect those merchant ships from Solarian retaliation and only secondarily to hurt the Solarian economy. Lacoon II involved closing the wormholes to Solarian ships. It did not close the wormholes to other ships.

There are plenty of third-party ships still transiting the spaceways in and out of the League, including financial brokers. The Solarian League cannot control who those brokers deal with, and Manticore does not care if Manticoran merchants buy or sell bonds to third-party brokers. If Solarian financiers consider Manticoran bonds to be worthless, they will be desperate to sell them to third parties willing to buy them. And lots of those third parties will be perfectly willing to buy and sell Manticoran bonds.

The galaxy is not just the Solarian League and Manticore, as much as it seems that way sometimes. There are thousands of other systems out there.