The Final Fate of the Mandarins

I agree totally.

In OTL though, consider just how many dictators have hung on because they had trained their advisers not to provide bad news, so had no idea just how bad things were. Hitler, Gadhafi, Saddam, and many others.

Ensign Re-read wrote:Remember, this is not ACTUALLY a "real" universe, it's DW's sandbox. So the real question is, what do we guess DW will think is the most dramatic, story-advancing fate for the Mandarins?

In that frame of mind, I suspect each and every Mandarin will have a separate fate. Pick one, line it up with one of the up-list numbers; pick another Mandarin, choose one of the remaining fates...
...and so on.


ERR

that admiral that was nano controlled into suicide, had an insurance policy. what happened to it? the mandarins are those most likly eager to preserve the status quo, even in the midst of such chaos, and most able to do so. so it seems like mesa would act to preserve them, part of the reason the admiral was dealt with.
It is likely the fall of the mandarins are to act as the death blow to the league, so i bet mesa has already designed their method of destruction.

SYED wrote:that admiral that was nano controlled into suicide, had an insurance policy. what happened to it? the mandarins are those most likly eager to preserve the status quo, even in the midst of such chaos, and most able to do so. so it seems like mesa would act to preserve them, part of the reason the admiral was dealt with.
It is likely the fall of the mandarins are to act as the death blow to the league, so i bet mesa has already designed their method of destruction.

The fall of the current set of Mandarins would actually be likely to HELP the League, by providing scapegoats and other workable 'outs' (like say, negotiating through the Andermani, or begging for Beowulf to help chill the fires their predecessors set.) I think the MAlign will be trying to keep them in place until large chunks of the SL are irrevocably broken loose, then they will just let them slide down in flames to whatever fate awaits.

I doubt that any of the current inner circle of Mandarins are knowingly in MAlign or even Manpower pay, except perhaps on a 'piecework', 'favors exchanged' basis, even though Rajani was.

I think the most likely fate for one or two of them may be that some large corporate 'sponsors', like the family of the current president of the SL, will 'encourage their retirement in the strongest terms' and then disappear them. It will be very like the submergence of the members of the High Ridge government, or the plotters that killed King Roger III. Retirement, then the black pill, or retirement, on some corporate daughter planet with a measly allowance and no transit papers.

Also, let us not forget that 80% of galactic banking passes through the SKM in some fashion, and a good portion of the rest probably passes through Beowulf. I'm willing to bet that the accessible accumulated private funds of our 5 Mandarins are not nearly what they were a year ago.

Within another 2 years, the best outcome that any of these 5 can probably hope for is to pay a VERY large fee for a very small, quiet villa somewhere on Erehwon or Smoking Frog, and to live there forever under an assumed name on a tight budget.

Georgia Sacristos can probably make a nice bit of change as the contractor making one or two of them disappear into obscurity.

Vince wrote:I don't think that any of the Mandarins have set up a bolthole. As White Haven pointed out, the bureaucrats running this have been gaming the system for so long that they recognize a threat to the system. And that is after the second New Tuscany incident. I doubt that they could even conceive of a threat to the system they've been gaming before the Battle of Spindle. It took until the Second Battle of Manticore before the bureaucrat in charge of the Solarian Foreign Ministry was finally willing to face the potential constitutional crisis and put it before the other Mandarins.

I think they will attempt to ride the ship of state even as it goes down in flames.

Hutch wrote:
I concur Vince. I doubt that they have boltholes simply because they could not begin to believe that they would ever need one. They were firmly in control and nothing would change that...until everything went south in a little more than a year (Byng got blown to dust bunnies in November 1921PD, per the Honorverse Wiki). And it wasn't until Crandall went bye-bye in February 1922PD and Lacoon I began that the Mandarins might really begin thinking they are in trouble.

And IMHO they really don't believe it yet. So probably no bolthole (albeit they might be working furiously (and on an individual basis) to establish one.

Plus, I wonder in the MAlignment would take an interest...remember Descroix (albeit I don't think any of theMandarins (or maybe just one) are that closely tied to Mesa/Manpower.

We shall see...eventually.

I am in agreement with you, that the timing is such that they are only coming to grips with the fact that they are in trouble; the fact that the Manties won the opening engagements is bad, but survivable; the economy really is immaterial at the moment-- they can just print government backed securities for their deficits, just as everyone does today.

They are in control of all the security forces, and they are both in the pay of, and the overseers for, the big commercial combines. They are, and always have been, the Lords of the Universe, so any little problems will eventually be resolved.

Until they started losing capitol ships, no one ever actually stopped the League from (eventually) doing what it wanted. I expect even after Beowulf secedes, that the greatest amount of stress on the Mandarins, will be toning down the expectations of the populace and the corporate boards that expect an immediate resolution of the "Manty" problem.

The Group of Five (eh, Mandarins) is a Prolong enhanced set of bureaucrats. They won't just cut and run-- and they will get their own version of Watergate soon. And, like Rajampet, they will also have been setting up insurance policies to stave off prosecution (under the legal system they OWN).

Rob

Hi Armed Neo-Bob,

One mandarin is surprisingly well informed regarding the Mesan medical community, while the OFS is notoriously working for transtellars that are based on Mesa, so at least two have more direct connections with Mesa than the others, but since we've only read the foreign minister's thoughts, the rest could be much closer.

Given their awareness they are answerable to no one, they have no reason to ever consider fleeing unless they've been literally criminally stupid, so I too expect them to be 'bitter clingers' until its too late, as the MAlign has intended.

L

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:

Vince wrote:I don't think that any of the Mandarins have set up a bolthole. As White Haven pointed out, the bureaucrats running this have been gaming the system for so long that they recognize a threat to the system. And that is after the second New Tuscany incident. I doubt that they could even conceive of a threat to the system they've been gaming before the Battle of Spindle. It took until the Second Battle of Manticore before the bureaucrat in charge of the Solarian Foreign Ministry was finally willing to face the potential constitutional crisis and put it before the other Mandarins.

I think they will attempt to ride the ship of state even as it goes down in flames.

Hutch wrote:
I concur Vince. I doubt that they have boltholes simply because they could not begin to believe that they would ever need one. They were firmly in control and nothing would change that...until everything went south in a little more than a year (Byng got blown to dust bunnies in November 1921PD, per the Honorverse Wiki). And it wasn't until Crandall went bye-bye in February 1922PD and Lacoon I began that the Mandarins might really begin thinking they are in trouble.

And IMHO they really don't believe it yet. So probably no bolthole (albeit they might be working furiously (and on an individual basis) to establish one.

Plus, I wonder in the MAlignment would take an interest...remember Descroix (albeit I don't think any of theMandarins (or maybe just one) are that closely tied to Mesa/Manpower.

We shall see...eventually.

I am in agreement with you, that the timing is such that they are only coming to grips with the fact that they are in trouble; the fact that the Manties won the opening engagements is bad, but survivable; the economy really is immaterial at the moment-- they can just print government backed securities for their deficits, just as everyone does today.

They are in control of all the security forces, and they are both in the pay of, and the overseers for, the big commercial combines. They are, and always have been, the Lords of the Universe, so any little problems will eventually be resolved.

Until they started losing capitol ships, no one ever actually stopped the League from (eventually) doing what it wanted. I expect even after Beowulf secedes, that the greatest amount of stress on the Mandarins, will be toning down the expectations of the populace and the corporate boards that expect an immediate resolution of the "Manty" problem.

The Group of Five (eh, Mandarins) is a Prolong enhanced set of bureaucrats. They won't just cut and run-- and they will get their own version of Watergate soon. And, like Rajampet, they will also have been setting up insurance policies to stave off prosecution (under the legal system they OWN).

Rob

lyonheart wrote:Hi Armed Neo-Bob,

One mandarin is surprisingly well informed regarding the Mesan medical community, while the OFS is notoriously working for transtellars that are based on Mesa, so at least two have more direct connections with Mesa than the others, but since we've only read the foreign minister's thoughts, the rest could be much closer.

Given their awareness they are answerable to no one, they have no reason to ever consider fleeing unless they've been literally criminally stupid, so I too expect them to be 'bitter clingers' until its too late, as the MAlign has intended.

L

I am not sure who you are refering to as regards information about Mesan medical capabilities. Quartermain? Mesa and Beowulf are the two biggest specialists in med science; and I truly doubt they ever actually use any direct contact with the mandarins-- I assume you are referring to McCartney(?) the bozo who runs Interior? I think they are manipulating them using peripheral characters and playing on their personal weaknesses and blind spots and predjudices while keeping their operatives at arms length. Like the now-to-be Rear Admiral in Economic Analysis. He isn't one of Kingsford's staffers; but he has access and is gaining credibility.

But, yeah, they are just now figuring out the splash level of the shitstorm. Now, where did they leave those waders?


Rob

HB of CJ wrote:I still respectfully think the aforementioned non moral, arrogant, greedy, egocentric, megalomaniacs have spent a great deal of other persons time and resources setting up multiple options, situations and detailed long term plans for getting out when the getting out is good. Option #2

They did not get to where they are by being dumb or non sensitive to changing climates or events. I suspect they already have their own intelligence sources and they already know the writing on the wall. The smart ones are already getting ready to boogie out. The smartest ones already have.

They have to assume that if they want to live any kind of life after the fact, the preparations must be expensive, extensive and frequently updated. Very deep cover and very deep bolt holes with redundant cut outs. Even that may not save them from a non pleasant eventual death. My read.

HB of CJ (old coot) Cm. We know they are already paranoid ... the question is are they paranoid enough? I would be, but that is just paranoid Henry talking here. I love this forum! I would assume the worst, then multiply by 10. Even then they will eventually be tracked down and dealt with.

I have to disagree. Don't forget they all come from the ruling elite/families who have been in charge for many centuries of the biggest, most powerful state in all human explored space. They have grown up in that mindset, looking down their noses at Neobarbs - confident in knowledge & expectation that things would go from strength to strength, that the galaxy would go on as it always had, that it could be gamed as they so desire. They have the knowledge that they will gradually work up thru the ranks till they have their turn at the top. The knowledge that things would be handled as 'gentlemen', and that at worst they might go into comfortable exile.

I'm sure that they have the big bank accounts yes, but I just don't see that they would have had the 'bolt hole' mindset. To me they are the product of generations of bureaucratic existence - the Sir Humphreys of the galaxy - if you will.

If they were paranoid, then they would have been keeping a much closer eye on external developments than they have.

Of course, things may be changing now!

I suggest that the Mandarins are not stupid. Their dumb competitors ended up running planets on the Verge. They did have a certain set of working assumptions based on inaccurate information. At this point I do not see them as shooting messengers bearing bad news.

Excellent topic and thank you. Many good different answers and all are valid. It will be fun waiting to see what answers are provided by Mr. Weber in the next Honorverse books.

And consider this? Maybe Mr. DW cruises through this Forum looking for his excellent ideas to continue the Honorverse series? I wonder what we will eventually read? HB

is there any chance they might accidently somehow act in a way that helps the alliance or harm the alignment, that is not in the alignment plans of breaking the league.