The Final Fate of the Mandarins

As we have all seen, the SLN's real leadership is perched right on top of a very slippery slope. Most the MAlignment and the GA want to take the Mandarins down (for different reasons, and with different methods but they are both out to get them either way) and while they are not "incompetent" exactly they are badly out of their depth.

What do people think this the most likely thing (or combination of things) that is likely to happen to the Quintet, or apply particular fates to a specific member. I have made a little summery list but what do other people think?

1) Get impeached by the formal bureaucracy/justice system when their misdemenours are exposed, and they are hung out to dry by their patrons/sponsers/colleges, and forced to resign in disgrace. (Like Aleksandra Tonkovic / High Ridge)
2) Abandon ship, simply up and run away with as much money as they can and avoid any responsibility. (Like Elaine DeCrouix)
3) Assassination - either by patrons they have upset, fellow politicos who want their jobs/power, or by the MA to cause further chaos / tie up loose ends.
4) Get caught up in a form of civic uprising and are publically lynched by an irate citizenry.
5) Pull a Janachek and commit suicide rather than face the music.

Of those choices, I think #2 is most likely given the Solly mindset.

Valen123456 wrote:As we have all seen, the SLN's real leadership is perched right on top of a very slippery slope. Most the MAlignment and the GA want to take the Mandarins down (for different reasons, and with different methods but they are both out to get them either way) and while they are not "incompetent" exactly they are badly out of their depth.
*SNIP*

I'm not sure the MAlignment *DOES* want to take the Mandarins down. At least not yet. The ultimate goal of the MAlignment is to break up the SL and to rise to power in the upheaval that follows. The current policies of the Mandarins are causing widespread dissatisfaction on most of the outlying worlds in the Verge and Shell. I think the MAlignment would want to leave them in power a little while longer to continue this process. Of course, in another T-year or 2 when the SL starts to come apart in earnest, then the MAlignment might re-evaluate the usefulness of leaving the Mandarins in power.

Probably; if they were smart, and they are, then the best and perhaps only solution is to boggie out right now; go as far away as practical and then burrow deep down that bolt hole.

I suppose it also might be possible that these august human beings have spent lots of time and effort to prepare any number of possible ways to run. Multiple options in need.

Also consider the possibility of creating real person alternate identities with great deepness, (speel check not working) and then simply take over that deep covers life.

The nagging thing of killing that person makes no difference to the aforementioned Sollie leadership...they are already quite non moral individuals to begin with.

Timing is critical. More lives and fortunes have been lost by waiting too long to boggie out. They should be leaving right now. Too hang around too long is a bad idea.

HB of CJ (old coot) Cm. Forum running choppy

Could one or more of the Mandarins have set themselves up with a bolt-hole out in some place that doesn't have an extradition treaty with the SL and have a still viable way to get there and live comfortably?

Of course, it probably isn't the SL that is going to be their worry. Manticore has shown that can put significant pressure on something like the SL and OFS in the past so some single or multi-system entity out in the boonies might just let Manticore execute a warrant of there was no specific treaty prohibiting it. Besides, if Manticore were to extradite Joe Mandarin, the place he was living could probably be able to take title to the abandoned property (think mountains of credits etc) and say "thank you very much" as they shuffle money around.

Then there is the Contract Killer option for people running Transtellars. Person shows up, a bit of an accident and suddenly Mr or Ms Gotmoneybags who just arrived six months ago drove their air car into a building or semething. Ah well, all that money in probate and no know heirs withing 200 light years and that identification/history for Gotmoneybags turns out to have some serious holes in them and nobody can determine where they actually came from.

Scenarios run from there.

I don't think that any of the Mandarins have set up a bolthole. As White Haven pointed out, the bureaucrats running [Edit] the League [/Edit] have been gaming the system for so long that they [Edit] were blind to [/Edit] recognize a threat to the system. And that is after the second New Tuscany incident. I doubt that they could even conceive of a threat to the system they've been gaming before the Battle of Spindle. It took until the [Edit] the receipt of the news of the outcome of [/Edit] Second Battle of Manticore before the bureaucrat in charge of the Solarian Foreign Ministry was finally willing to face the potential constitutional crisis and put it before the other Mandarins.

I think they will attempt to ride the ship of state even as it goes down in flames.

Vince wrote:I don't think that any of the Mandarins have set up a bolthole. As White Haven pointed out, the bureaucrats running this have been gaming the system for so long that they recognize a threat to the system. And that is after the second New Tuscany incident. I doubt that they could even conceive of a threat to the system they've been gaming before the Battle of Spindle. It took until the Second Battle of Manticore before the bureaucrat in charge of the Solarian Foreign Ministry was finally willing to face the potential constitutional crisis and put it before the other Mandarins.

I think they will attempt to ride the ship of state even as it goes down in flames.

I concur Vince. I doubt that they have boltholes simply because they could not begin to believe that they would ever need one. They were firmly in control and nothing would change that...until everything went south in a little more than a year (Byng got blown to dust bunnies in November 1921PD, per the Honorverse Wiki). And it wasn't until Crandall went bye-bye in February 1922PD and Lacoon I began that the Mandarins might really begin thinking they are in trouble.

And IMHO they really don't believe it yet. So probably no bolthole (albeit they might be working furiously (and on an individual basis) to establish one.

Plus, I wonder in the MAlignment would take an interest...remember Descroix (albeit I don't think any of theMandarins (or maybe just one) are that closely tied to Mesa/Manpower.

We shall see...eventually.

I still respectfully think the aforementioned non moral, arrogant, greedy, egocentric, megalomaniacs have spent a great deal of other persons time and resources setting up multiple options, situations and detailed long term plans for getting out when the getting out is good. Option #2

They did not get to where they are by being dumb or non sensitive to changing climates or events. I suspect they already have their own intelligence sources and they already know the writing on the wall. The smart ones are already getting ready to boogie out. The smartest ones already have.

They have to assume that if they want to live any kind of life after the fact, the preparations must be expensive, extensive and frequently updated. Very deep cover and very deep bolt holes with redundant cut outs. Even that may not save them from a non pleasant eventual death. My read.

HB of CJ (old coot) Cm. We know they are already paranoid ... the question is are they paranoid enough? I would be, but that is just paranoid Henry talking here. I love this forum! I would assume the worst, then multiply by 10. Even then they will eventually be tracked down and dealt with.

HB of CJ wrote:I still respectfully think the aforementioned non moral, arrogant, greedy, egocentric, megalomaniacs have spent a great deal of other persons time and resources setting up multiple options, situations and detailed long term plans for getting out when the getting out is good. Option #2

They did not get to where they are by being dumb or non sensitive to changing climates or events. I suspect they already have their own intelligence sources and they already know the writing on the wall. The smart ones are already getting ready to boogie out. The smartest ones already have.

They have to assume that if they want to live any kind of life after the fact, the preparations must be expensive, extensive and frequently updated. Very deep cover and very deep bolt holes with redundant cut outs. Even that may not save them from a non pleasant eventual death. My read.

HB of CJ (old coot) Cm. We know they are already paranoid ... the question is are they paranoid enough? I would be, but that is just paranoid Henry talking here. I love this forum! I would assume the worst, then multiply by 10. Even then they will eventually be tracked down and dealt with.

I disagree with some of this. The Gang of Five, aka the Mandarins, are still there and in power. None of them have fled and they still believe they can salvage something from this situation. They've spent decades in power and will be very reluctant to release it. The SL ship will likely be sunk and on the way to the bottom of the ocean before they willingly release power.

That being said, I do think that they will be thinking of plans just in case the worst does happen. It took a lot of time for the to work their ways into the positions they hold now. I am sure that during their climb up, they did have plans and such made up in case they didn't succeed and had to run. Those plans have gathered dust since they attained their positions, but I'm sure they are being dusted off and the Mandarins are looking at the various properties and business stock they own to see what assets they do have. Just in case..

Remember, this is not ACTUALLY a "real" universe, it's DW's sandbox. So the real question is, what do we guess DW will think is the most dramatic, story-advancing fate for the Mandarins?

In that frame of mind, I suspect each and every Mandarin will have a separate fate. Pick one, line it up with one of the up-list numbers; pick another Mandarin, choose one of the remaining fates...
...and so on.


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