Dohlar and Destabilization

Hi PeterZ,

I don't think it will be that easy.

I don't think DE will play with Evrytyn much as in even bothering to dig in his 6" angle guns, since maneuvering around the town avoids any assault and compels Rychtyr to retreat out of those defenses where he can be caught and defeated in open battle if he doesn't realize how classed he is and surrender, which he just might, being even smarter than Ahlverez.

Taking Dairnyth cuts the land link between Dohlar and the temple, reducing the Go4's control, especially in its reaction time to changing events, for which Dohlar may become very grateful to the alliance, particularly Thirsk.

While EHM's Army of Cliff Peak could also take Dairnyth rather quickly, clearing its named province might take precedence along with helping Symkyn destroy Kaitswyrth and any Harchong quarter-army acting as army group center.

If Ahlverez makes it back to Dohlar with his 30,000+ Dohlaran survivors, he'll be the hero of the day, 5day, month, and year;obviously a power at the court, and another reason for him to be a regent like Thirsk.

Being a realist, he knows they can't fight or beat the alliance for some time, while he has to hold the Go4 partly to blame for what happened to his army and the IDA's AoJ.

If word how Clyntahn pushed Kaitswyrth into wrecking his army becomes known in Gorath City, among his other bad decisions, the good son of mother church might begin to try to distance Dohlar from such stupidity or make it very quietly known he supports Duchairn and Magwair over the GI.

When the alliance liberates Silkiah while taking the Salthar Canal, the threat of another alliance army quickly marching to Gorath City from its west end only 660 miles away [17days, while Evrytyn is almost twice that far] if the ICN doesn't carry them closer, along with the anticipated marine raids all along the coastline increases the pressure on King Rahnyld to do something, or Duke Fern to do something about him.

The republic has a long memory and will add another 15 divisions to its OoB sometime this spring, I suspect several will head to Dohlar, probably quickly towed by the new river ironclads [at only 8 mph, over 200 miles per day] at least doubling DE's force.

Keep in mind the 'levelers' that made the core of the SoS in the republic, [have they been told how they were used by Clyntahn thru Merlin/OWL's broadsheets?] who probably see the approach of the alliance as their opportunity to establish their validity as a power in Dohlar's future [maybe only 4-5% of the population but organised], and even if they fail, one of them killing the king could be quite advantageous for Dohlar.

Let's not forget the alliance's political goals and objectives; do they include an end to aristocracy, land and tax reform, besides religious tolerance?

The first not so much, but the others are likely, and if the 'levelers' make it their immediate political program, NTM see it all as their time to strike has come, the local aristocracy and church leadership [there aren't that many inquisitors] may be too busy running to organise the local resistance and guerrilla efforts against any alliance invasion.

How the RSA and the ICA are viewed by the locals will also be interesting to read.

Given what other nations will be watching, especially the next likely target of the alliance, ie the Border states; just what should the alliance terms be to Dohlar?

L

PeterZ wrote:I am reading this thread but cannot seriously consider that Dohlar has a snowball's chance in hell of surviving intact. No matter what Rychtair or Ahlvarez attempt, they are hosed. All High Mount or Eastshare need to do to defeat Rychtair is barrage Evyrtyn with their 6" angles and have enough mobile forces to crush his Burt if he leaves the city. The remaining forces available to DE follows Ahlvarez into Dohlar. I believe Ahlvarez makes it home while DE and HM mops up the Desnari forces and bottles up Rychtair. Rychtair can't fight his way home. His is facing too many soldiers with far to much mobility and flexibility. He either stays put and forces DE to divert troops away from chasing Ahlvarez or he leaves and loses his force PDQ.

Dohlar can only mount a guerrilla campaign against an invading ICA. They don't have the firepower to meet the ICA in the field and the ICA doesn't need to assault RDA fixed positions. Bombardment of powerfully defended positions will break any Dohlaran force. Back that up with enough infantry to gut any counter attacks while mobile forces control the countryside and Dohlar is toast. Heck, that is duty RSA equipped with muzzle loaders can do. After all the BLs either have been sent to Harchong or are with the forces inside the fortified positions.

The only thing that remains for Dohlar is the salvage some vestige central authority.

Randomiser wrote:Don, it all depends what you mean by 'knock Dohlar and Desnair out of the war'. I don't think the Alliance can either invade and control them, takes way too many troops, or get them to accept peace terms, the Church and their sense of honour won't let them. So the best one can hope for is to keep them out of action for a while by controlling their easy supply routes into the campaign area. The whole war is driven from Zion and the only way for the EoC to end it is to bring about regime change there.

Good point. But remember that Dohlar is also under pressure from the sea. Defeat Thirsk's fleet and occupy the capital and Dohlar's command and control structure is disordered, probably to the point where they will be unable to organize anything beyond their borders. Remember also that most of their army is tied up with facing Eastshare, Hanath and the RSA. So, occupy most of the country? No. Occupy key choke points? Yes.

Just one more point on Dohlar... I don't think we are dealing with fanatics in quite the same way as we would be if we were dealing with Temple hardliners. That just might make it possible to negotiate Dohlar's exit from the war.

As for Desnair, no need even to deal with them except to make sure their routes into Haven from Howard are blocked.

I couldn't more more wholeheartedly agree with the last statement of your post. Regime change in Zion ends the war. I would only add as long as it is rational regime change.

Don

lyonheart wrote:

I don't think DE will play with Evrytyn much as in even bothering to dig in his 6" angle guns, since maneuvering around the town avoids any assault and compels Rychtyr to retreat

Taking Dairnyth cuts the land link between Dohlar and the temple, reducing the Go4's control,

While EHM's Army of Cliff Peak could also take Dairnyth

When the alliance liberates Silkiah while taking the Salthar Canal, (there is)the threat of another alliance army quickly marching to Gorath City from its west. (Besides cutting off Desnair)

Really interesting how the geography and the resulting choke points play into all this. If the Sword had worked, the Temple would be sitting in the drivers's seat. Since it's failing, the very geography which made the original idea so appealing is coming back to bite them. The original borders now make more sense- since they were at those choke points. (Well done Mad Wizard)
Thank you for continuing to point all this out- even I am beginning to get it.

lyonheart wrote:Hi JMSeeley,

SNIP

Either can spell plenty of trouble for the Jihad, but given the King Haarahld' VII's won't arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar until late July or August, Dairnyth seems the more probable, because its more effective for the time period while DE's 70,000 men can't control or guard his logistics that deep into Dohlar, though he might consider destroying or demolishing most of the old border defenses as he moves toward Dairnyth.

L

I believe there is Textev that 28 Riverboats are complete but nothing on the dispersion of those forces. If ICN is taking the Salthar Canal and can unleash half that many Riverboats into the Gulf of Dohlar, everything from Salthar to Bay of Bess will be in total ICN control & the Dohlar Navy will be kindling. Then a Haarald (the Gwylym Manthyr) will Show up and blow the Kings Towers/Palace into rubble.

Dohlar will cease to be an effective part of the war effort. Desnair & Delferahk already are diminished to the point of write off. South Harchong will be isolated and blockaded, perhaps it withdraws from the Harchong Empire.

The Harchong Army (Holy Host or Whatever becomes the single Egg in the AoG Basket.
.
Some have dismissed the Harchongese but 1.3 million men have a Army Ant mentality - crawl over the opposition with numbers!

'Quantity has a Quality of it's own'

We need a snipet that focuses on that contingent - What's happenin'

dwileye13 wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi JMSeeley,

SNIP

Either can spell plenty of trouble for the Jihad, but given the King Haarahld' VII's won't arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar until late July or August, Dairnyth seems the more probable, because its more effective for the time period while DE's 70,000 men can't control or guard his logistics that deep into Dohlar, though he might consider destroying or demolishing most of the old border defenses as he moves toward Dairnyth.

L

I believe there is Textev that 28 Riverboats are complete but nothing on the dispersion of those forces. If ICN is taking the Salthar Canal and can unleash half that many Riverboats into the Gulf of Dohlar, everything from Salthar to Bay of Bess will be in total ICN control & the Dohlar Navy will be kindling. Then a Haarald (the Gwylym Manthyr) will Show up and blow the Kings Towers/Palace into rubble.

Dohlar will cease to be an effective part of the war effort. Desnair & Delferahk already are diminished to the point of write off. South Harchong will be isolated and blockaded, perhaps it withdraws from the Harchong Empire.

The Harchong Army (Holy Host or Whatever becomes the single Egg in the AoG Basket.
.
Some have dismissed the Harchongese but 1.3 million men have a Army Ant mentality - crawl over the opposition with numbers!

'Quantity has a Quality of it's own'

We need a snipet that focuses on that contingent - What's happenin'

I'm sure that "quality has a quantity" of its own is precisely what the temple and the Harchongese are thinking.

But less than half are armed even with rifles. If they ever manage to get at you, that Army ant mentality could make things interesting. But they are spread out for miles in their encampment, vulnerable to flanking attacks by Alliance forces from both north and south. And how well do they fare when their supply lines get cut and rations get short or nonexistent?

To sum up, think of the dragon whose brain tells its tail what to do and the tail responds with the action 10 minutes later. I think that 1.3 million Harchongese are going to find themselves in a world of hurt when they start trying to come to grips with agile alliance armies.

Don

Hi Dwieye13,

The Harchong army had 1.5 million men before we learned it's name, and Duchairn joked about how it was between 1.5 and 2 million, given how many rations it consumed.

But that means its doomed to rely on canals and barges if it stays together, which I strongly doubt given the need to quickly replace all the other Go4 armies.

It's possible things may move so fast in Dohlar, that by the time the King Haarahld VII's are ready in June-July, they are no longer needed in the gulf, so are free to move northward.

L

dwileye13 wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi JMSeeley,

SNIP

Either can spell plenty of trouble for the Jihad, but given the King Haarahld' VII's won't arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar until late July or August, Dairnyth seems the more probable, because its more effective for the time period while DE's 70,000 men can't control or guard his logistics that deep into Dohlar, though he might consider destroying or demolishing most of the old border defenses as he moves toward Dairnyth.

L

I believe there is Textev that 28 Riverboats are complete but nothing on the dispersion of those forces. If ICN is taking the Salthar Canal and can unleash half that many Riverboats into the Gulf of Dohlar, everything from Salthar to Bay of Bess will be in total ICN control & the Dohlar Navy will be kindling. Then a Haarald (the Gwylym Manthyr) will Show up and blow the Kings Towers/Palace into rubble.

Dohlar will cease to be an effective part of the war effort. Desnair & Delferahk already are diminished to the point of write off. South Harchong will be isolated and blockaded, perhaps it withdraws from the Harchong Empire.

The Harchong Army (Holy Host or Whatever becomes the single Egg in the AoG Basket.
.
Some have dismissed the Harchongese but 1.3 million men have a Army Ant mentality - crawl over the opposition with numbers!

'Quantity has a Quality of it's own'

We need a snipet that focuses on that contingent - What's happenin'

Hi Don,

Do we have any solid numbers for the next flight of river ironclads?

There were 31 steam powered barges under construction when the first 4 were converted, and some of the new river ironclads are apparently smaller to fit narrower canals but no numbers have been given yet.

Even if 28 were to commission soon, sending half through the Salthar Canal has limits since their range is less than 2000 miles, so to control the Bay of Bess, they will need intermediate bases for coaling stations at the outside range from Salthar, presumably some or all the islands off Dohlar's west coast.

Regarding the MHoGatA, it will take over a month or more probably two even after the Langhorne melts before it could begin operations in northern Siddarmark, and supplying it would be so vulnerable.

What does the beast do when it runs out of food?

L

n7axw wrote:

dwileye13 wrote:*quote="lyonheart"*Hi JMSeeley,

SNIP

Either can spell plenty of trouble for the Jihad, but given the King Haarahld' VII's won't arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar until late July or August, Dairnyth seems the more probable, because its more effective for the time period while DE's 70,000 men can't control or guard his logistics that deep into Dohlar, though he might consider destroying or demolishing most of the old border defenses as he moves toward Dairnyth.

L


*quote*

I believe there is Textev that 28 Riverboats are complete but nothing on the dispersion of those forces. If ICN is taking the Salthar Canal and can unleash half that many Riverboats into the Gulf of Dohlar, everything from Salthar to Bay of Bess will be in total ICN control & the Dohlar Navy will be kindling. Then a Haarald (the Gwylym Manthyr) will Show up and blow the Kings Towers/Palace into rubble.

Dohlar will cease to be an effective part of the war effort. Desnair & Delferahk already are diminished to the point of write off. South Harchong will be isolated and blockaded, perhaps it withdraws from the Harchong Empire.

The Harchong Army (Holy Host or Whatever becomes the single Egg in the AoG Basket.
.
Some have dismissed the Harchongese but 1.3 million men have a Army Ant mentality - crawl over the opposition with numbers!

'Quantity has a Quality of it's own'

We need a snipet that focuses on that contingent - What's happenin'

I'm sure that "quality has a quantity" of its own is precisely what the temple and the Harchongese are thinking.

But less than half are armed even with rifles. If they ever manage to get at you, that Army ant mentality could make things interesting. But they are spread out for miles in their encampment, vulnerable to flanking attacks by Alliance forces from both north and south. And how well do they fare when their supply lines get cut and rations get short or nonexistent?

To sum up, think of the dragon whose brain tells its tail what to do and the tail responds with the action 10 minutes later. I think that 1.3 million Harchongese are going to find themselves in a world of hurt when they start trying to come to grips with agile alliance armies.

Don

Hi Lyonheart,

I have been assuming your numbers. Otherwise your thoughts pretty much mirror mine.

Don

>Quantity has a Quality of it's own'

up to point and between not too disimilar armies.
Harchong is so ill equiped it would be worth a laugh if it was not so tragic. Desnair and Dohllar armies were at least in shouting distance in terms of equipement if they had bad doctrine and very bad officers.

Here, besides the logistic factor, which is the major problem, numbers alone wont permit Harchong troops to run over entranched ICA army because of the artillery deadly suppressing fire. If there was a risk of that, once the new full cased ammo is available in quantities, a few Gatlings or event the original Mitrailleuse would straigthen things nicely

In the other role, again artillery especially mortars will only take longer to reduce Harchong positions.

The only risk would be perhaps battle in open terrain without significant artillery support, but the ICA officers are too good to got is such troubles.

alj_sf wrote:>Quantity has a Quality of it's own'

up to point and between not too disimilar armies.
Harchong is so ill equiped it would be worth a laugh if it was not so tragic. Desnair and Dohllar armies were at least in shouting distance in terms of equipement if they had bad doctrine and very bad officers.

Here, besides the logistic factor, which is the major problem, numbers alone wont permit Harchong troops to run over entranched ICA army because of the artillery deadly suppressing fire. If there was a risk of that, once the new full cased ammo is available in quantities, a few Gatlings or event the original Mitrailleuse would straigthen things nicely

In the other role, again artillery especially mortars will only take longer to reduce Harchong positions.

The only risk would be perhaps battle in open terrain without significant artillery support, but the ICA officers are too good to got is such troubles.

The logistics factor is going to be the big issue. Some on the forum are assuming that the Harchongese are going to be split up into several smaller armies. That does make sense given how how many men they have. No way to wield 1.3 million men effectively given mobility issues on Safehold.

BUT...

I wonder if they are going to get the chance to do that. They are expecting all this to happen at the beginning of the spring campaigning season, expecting their enemies to go into winter quarters. DE and BGV, however have not done that. Long before spring, the AOG in Siddarmark will be dealt with and the Harchongese will find themselves subject to flanking attacks and having their supply lines cut behind them.

How good will those Harchongese noblemen prove at confronting Charisian dragoons? My guess is that it is going to be a loong winter on short rations...

Don