Has the Mesan Alignment already lost?

I think the only impact is MA can no longer operate with as much secrecy as before now that the GA has become aware of them and able to take active countermeasures against them.

Renaissance Factor will just be one of the many blocs of systems that will emerge once SL break up, but without a valid casus belli, I doubt GA will act (military) against them without appearing as the 'bad guy'. The 12 founding members of the Renaissance Factor will appear to the rest of the galaxy as 12 star systems that decided to band together for stability and help each other in the ensuing chaos.

Most probably Renaissance will remain as a legitimate coalition while the Alignment will be force to change their current plan and go underground and infiltrate the other coalitions as they had done for last few centuries. To the alignment, there might come a day (after a few more centuries) when members of GA will go their seperate ways and the alignment will have manage to infiltrate many of the star coalitions' government. And hence Renaissance might become a leading star coalition among all the coalitions in the future to form a legitimate new 'SL'

But whether the Detweilers will actually survive till that day is probably unknown as they made more than enough enemies to ensue their downfall. Their plan however will probably be taken over by others in the alignment.

Brog wrote:I think the only impact is MA can no longer operate with as much secrecy as before now that the GA has become aware of them and able to take active countermeasures against them.

Renaissance Factor will just be one of the many blocs of systems that will emerge once SL break up, but without a valid casus belli, I doubt GA will act (military) against them without appearing as the 'bad guy'. The 12 founding members of the Renaissance Factor will appear to the rest of the galaxy as 12 star systems that decided to band together for stability and help each other in the ensuing chaos.

Most probably Renaissance will remain as a legitimate coalition while the Alignment will be force to change their current plan and go underground and infiltrate the other coalitions as they had done for last few centuries. To the alignment, there might come a day (after a few more centuries) when members of GA will go their seperate ways and the alignment will have manage to infiltrate many of the star coalitions' government. And hence Renaissance might become a leading star coalition among all the coalitions in the future to form a legitimate new 'SL'

But whether the Detweilers will actually survive till that day is probably unknown as they made more than enough enemies to ensue their downfall. Their plan however will probably be taken over by others in the alignment.

You're forgetting the Felix junction, which links to both Darius and The Twins, which in turn links to Torch. Since Mannerheim will be asserting a claim, it ties them directly to the MAlign.

The Detweiller Vision is basically a utopian dream, and once the bubble bursts, I don't see the actual MAlign holding together.

"The first thing we do is kill all the treecats", Detweiler mumbled to himself. HB

Weird Harold wrote:

Hutch wrote:
Nope, at least not on the point that the GA couldn't be anticipated by the MAlign; it has been anticipated and the MAlign has done everything it could to prevent the GA from forming. (Not the GA precisely, but an alliance between Haven and Manticore.)

Ah, amazing what a few hours and several ingestions of caffeine will do. I now see the difference, and tend to agree with you, Harold.

Amaroq, Haven was (for quite some time, according to the MWW) a major force for "good" (depending on one's definition) and admired and be-friended by folks like Manticore and Beowulf. Destablizing them was a MAlignment move early on, IIRC (I hope MWW will address this in the Haven Sector "House of" book).

I see the argument that you're making and I agree with it in part. The MA destabilizing Haven was to prevent them from being a significant player in the future as well as something of a "test-run" for when they went after the real target: the SL. I don't believe the MA really had any thoughts about disrupting any potential Haven-Manticore alliances when they did what they did; I tend to see it as more of an unintended side-effect.

How prominent was Manticore when Haven started to go off the rails? I remember reading that the MA had not anticipated Manticore becoming as powerful (in an economic or military sense) and influential as they did. My interpretation (and that's all it is ) is that the MA went after Haven for the aforementioned reasons and then realized that it was a good thing that it precluded any alliance with Manticore but not that that was the plan all along. I still maintain that Haven and Manticore teaming up recently, especially after the history that they've had, was certainly not anticipated by the MA.

Hi Brog,

Elisabeth and Eloise had already figured out Mesa was a front at the end of MoH, that there was a secret system HQ, that the MAlign would have puppets operating in the SL, that would probably be strongly opposed to Manpower and all its corrupting influences, given how much the RF fits that description, so I think they will get more than a passing examination by the GA.

L

Brog wrote:I think the only impact is MA can no longer operate with as much secrecy as before now that the GA has become aware of them and able to take active countermeasures against them.

Renaissance Factor will just be one of the many blocs of systems that will emerge once SL break up, but without a valid casus belli, I doubt GA will act (military) against them without appearing as the 'bad guy'. The 12 founding members of the Renaissance Factor will appear to the rest of the galaxy as 12 star systems that decided to band together for stability and help each other in the ensuing chaos.

Most probably Renaissance will remain as a legitimate coalition while the Alignment will be force to change their current plan and go underground and infiltrate the other coalitions as they had done for last few centuries. To the alignment, there might come a day (after a few more centuries) when members of GA will go their seperate ways and the alignment will have manage to infiltrate many of the star coalitions' government. And hence Renaissance might become a leading star coalition among all the coalitions in the future to form a legitimate new 'SL'

But whether the Detweilers will actually survive till that day is probably unknown as they made more than enough enemies to ensue their downfall. Their plan however will probably be taken over by others in the alignment.

I would argue that the MA has already won, and there is nothing anyone can do to stop them from achieving most of their objectives.

The MA strategy has two core objectives:
1. Dissolve the SL
2. Release the stranglehold Beowulf has on Biotech policy

Objective 1 is already as good as done. Objective 2 will not be far behind once the new status quo emerges; while achieving it will be a gradual process, wheels are already in motion.

Now, the MA may not survive to see its victory. But that's almost irrelevant.

The E wrote:I would argue that the MA has already won, and there is nothing anyone can do to stop them from achieving most of their objectives.

The MA strategy has two core objectives:
1. Dissolve the SL
2. Release the stranglehold Beowulf has on Biotech policy

Objective 1 is already as good as done. Objective 2 will not be far behind once the new status quo emerges; while achieving it will be a gradual process, wheels are already in motion.

Now, the MA may not survive to see its victory. But that's almost irrelevant.

Interesting way of looking at it. The MA doesn't only want to "release the stranglehold" Beowulf has they want to replace Beowulf and then dictate the genetic future of the human species. In fact, they want to replace both the SL and Beowulf with themselves (or institutions created/controlled by them). Not surviving to see those objectives fulfilled when that was a primary focus of said objectives isn't quite winning. If anything, maybe it's a Pyrrhic victory.

To paraphrase an old cliché,

Those who fight and run away live to fight another day,
or in the case of the MAlign another decade, I think the Malign will go to ground again for a long time so that they can finish building their navy and get themselves back to their previous timetable, they know the SL is going to break up which is what they wanted in the first place, because of the GA they know they can't presently win militarily so they will scuttle back under their rocks and wait for the dust to clear before venturing out again.

Just a thought


T&R
GJS

JohnRoth wrote:

Brog wrote:I think the only impact is MA can no longer operate with as much secrecy as before now that the GA has become aware of them and able to take active countermeasures against them.

Renaissance Factor will just be one of the many blocs of systems that will emerge once SL break up, but without a valid casus belli, I doubt GA will act (military) against them without appearing as the 'bad guy'. The 12 founding members of the Renaissance Factor will appear to the rest of the galaxy as 12 star systems that decided to band together for stability and help each other in the ensuing chaos.

Most probably Renaissance will remain as a legitimate coalition while the Alignment will be force to change their current plan and go underground and infiltrate the other coalitions as they had done for last few centuries. To the alignment, there might come a day (after a few more centuries) when members of GA will go their seperate ways and the alignment will have manage to infiltrate many of the star coalitions' government. And hence Renaissance might become a leading star coalition among all the coalitions in the future to form a legitimate new 'SL'

But whether the Detweilers will actually survive till that day is probably unknown as they made more than enough enemies to ensue their downfall. Their plan however will probably be taken over by others in the alignment.

You're forgetting the Felix junction, which links to both Darius and The Twins, which in turn links to Torch. Since Mannerheim will be asserting a claim, it ties them directly to the MAlign.

The Detweiller Vision is basically a utopian dream, and once the bubble bursts, I don't see the actual MAlign holding together.

I don't think this in any meaningful way connects them to the MAlign.

First, Mannerheim is in no rush to assert/file a claim. They are taking all the time they need to trace the ownership, apply pressure, etc.

When the time comes that the negotiations, purchase, and transfer are made 'public' (and THAT will be as low-key as possible, within the framework of the cover stories), Mannerheim will have perfectly legitimate expansion/system development rationales for the move.

Rather later, in the course of more thorough surveying of their new sovereign territory, Mannerheim will 'discover' that there are indications of a possible wormhole in near-Felix space. Surveys will ensue, covered appropriately in the hyperphysics and astrogation communities. After many months of investigation, an new junction will be announced. It will have a couple of useful, or potentially useful bridges, neither of which lead to places called Darius or 'The Twins'.

Mannerheim's repectable efforts at stabilizing their area of the now unstable galaxy will go on.

Alternatively, and much more simply, no wormhole will ever be discovered during Mannerheim's surveys of their new resource system. Purely industrial exploitation of Felix, under strict government supervision, and Mannerheim SDF protection, will proceed. There may be talk of some possible future terraforming efforts, after the current troubles. A backwater system for the rest of the galaxy.

dreamrider

George J. Smith wrote:To paraphrase an old cliché,

Those who fight and run away live to fight another day,
or in the case of the MAlign another decade, I think the Malign will go to ground again for a long time so that they can finish building their navy and get themselves back to their previous timetable, they know the SL is going to break up which is what they wanted in the first place, because of the GA they know they can't presently win militarily so they will scuttle back under their rocks and wait for the dust to clear before venturing out again.

Just a thought


T&R
GJS

I would totally agree with this, except for two things (OK, perhaps three really):

1) Albrecht Detweiler, as he has been shown to us, talks a very good game, but underneath he is an impatient man, and possibly a megalomaniac. I think several of his clone sons are actually more stable than he is. Albrecht has mounted the horse and loosed the hounds; I don't think he is going to be able to make himself see the situation as one in which he needs to call off the hunt for another couple of centuries. In the end, the RenFactor may be saved as a galactic power, but I think it will be two or three of his sons picking up the pieces and living with a reduced goal, not Albrecht. He is not going to be able to stop before he charges off a cliff.

2) Jake McBryde, and his girlfriend, cut off from the stability of the society they have known, forced to face the real brutality of the culture they have lived in, and with the seeds of doubt planted by McBryde's brother, are at large in the galaxy, with a busted transit plan. They are most probably going to arrive as unwitting but increasingly restive, even desperately unwilling supercargo on a slaver making a route call at...Parmley Station. Even if the ship is not taken down during the port call (due to lack of slaves in evidence), the pair will likely jump ship there. And Jake McBryde, plus his new girlfriend, unlike Herlander Simoes, DOES know most of the layers that will blown the MAlign's future operations wide open. I don't think he knows the location of Darius, and he may not know the LOCATION of the Twins or of Felix, and I don't think he knows all about the Renaissance Factor, especially not the member states, but I think they know, between them, the NATURE of the Twins system, amd the fact that there IS a wormhole route to a secret base system, and that Verdant Vista was wrapped up in the MAlign's deeper plans. That will be enough to set the GA looking in the right ways, in the right directions.

Perhaps 3) In a strictly dramatic pacing sense, I don't think David wants to, or can afford to drop a long hiatus into the story arc at this point. I think he gave that up when he saved Honor at BoMA. He might write in about a 2-3 year timeline break, to let some careers progess, some technologies mature, and some ships complete (*cough*Maya*cough*), but I think that's about as much down time as we are likely to see. I think he's about to start gathering this saga to an end point, using the dramatis personae that he has already established.

Now, I've seen it commented in this forum that he stated he COULD do it in maybe 2 books, beyond Cauldron. I think it will be more like 4 books, 5 if he and Eric want to do another spy side excursion. But in 5-7 years I think Honor gets to retire, satisfied that the galaxy is safe for the nonce.

dreamrider