The Howard Subcontinent and Logistics

Every time I look at a map, and think of the virtual stranglehold the ICN has over the seas (soon, I think, to be augmented by naval activity in the Gulf of Dohlar and eventually in the Hankey Sound), it's hard to ignore the isthmus between the Howard subcontinent (Desnair) and Silkiah and the the rest of the main continent. Using the maps, my estimate is that the isthmus is, at its narrowest, about 300 km wide.

Desnair is described as one of the more backward and feudal societies, due in part to the abundance of resources in that subcontinent, including in particular metals.

As the Charisan Empire continues to consolidate its position in Siddarmark, would it not make sense to interdict any flows of manpower, resources or supplies from the Howard subcontinent to the Church? Admittedly, I don't think Charis is in a position to occupy or completely interdict the isthmus yet - a few more pieces need to fall into place.

First, the ICN needs to establish long term control over the Gulf of Dohlar, the Hankey Sound and Silkiah Bay. Second, the situation in Siddarmark needs to be consolidated, to free up manpower. Third, there might be the small issue of a 1 million man plus Harchongese army to deal with. Nevertheless, even if the isthmus isn't occupied outright, efforts to interdict commerce through the isthmus might be a logical priority, and could be at least partially successful.

My predictions for the next book or two:

1. Siddarmark and East Haven are consolidated militarily;
2. The ICN takes control over the Gulf, at least, defeating any naval opposition;
3. Interdiction efforts described above commence;
4. An attempt is made to assassinate Daivyn, throwing succession of the Princedom of Corisande into question. If it succeeds, Irys' baby's gender may become vitally important. If it fails, efforts to alter the laws of succession will be redoubled;
5. At least one of the concentration camps will be liberated. Refugees might be available to provide witness of the atrocities and their innocence to doubters;
6. Additional efforts to reach particularly loathsome inquisitors will bear fruit, possibly goading Clyntahn into some particularly vicious actions.
7. Ahlverez suffers the same fate as Thirsk, primarily through the efforts of Harless' great nephew Kyr, and Hankey and Hennet.
8. I'd love to see Thirsk come over to the ICN. He won't unless his family is rescued. I'm not sure that's possible but I can hope.

This is my first post here - please be gentle!

XofDallas wrote:
SNIP

This is my first post here - please be gentle!

Welcome and well said.

IMO - Thirsk and Alvarez will meet I hope, so Alvarez can make a personal apology. As for logistics, I believe that the movement of materials from any part of Howard into East or West Haven is going to slow to a trickle. Soon the ICN will have control of the Gulf of Dohlar as they do most of the rest of the Oceans.

As for Iris, twins are in order Boy and Girl with the Girl first! Changes in the laws of succession are already being considered but Daivyn is such a sweet young man. If something does occur it will be by the Duke of Margo.

Yes they will liberate what is left of the Camps but the toll will have been rung and there will be little left to rescue. Food to Camps is the lowest priority and they are being worked to death.

All Inquisitors that fall into the alliance's hands will suffer the terminal fate ascribed.

Welcome to the forums. I hope you enjoy the rough and tumble that happens here.

As for the subject at hand, I expect that Silkiah and Dohlar will be knocked out of the war as the next step. The Salthar Canal will be siezed by the EOC and used by to move its riverclads into the Gulf of Dohlar. With Charis controlling the seas on both sides of Howard, its isolation will be complete, rendering Desnair and South Harchong irellavant to the war.

Don

n7axw wrote:I expect that Silkiah and Dohlar will be knocked out of the war as the next step. The Salthar Canal will be siezed by the EOC and used by to move its riverclads into the Gulf of Dohlar. With Charis controlling the seas on both sides of Howard, its isolation will be complete, rendering Desnair and South Harchong irellavant to the war.

Don

Good points! It's becoming obvious to me from yours and dwileye13's posts that some people are far more familiar with all the books and related writings than I am. Some of the subtleties you've both posted (e.g., the Duke of Margo) are ones I'm sure were referenced in previous books, but they're also ones I hadn't remembered, let alone considered or incorporated into any of my thoughts or predictions.

It's going to be fascinating to see what rfc has in store for us.

XofDallas wrote:...
8. I'd love to see Thirsk come over to the ICN. He won't unless his family is rescued. I'm not sure that's possible but I can hope.

This is my first post here - please be gentle!

Welcome.

I don't think Thirsk can just walk in like White Ford/Sharpefield/Jahras, etc. after giving away his prisoners to the Inquisition. Even if he had no choice. Just too much bad blood there.

He might be allowed to live, but I doubt he'd be allowed to live in complete freedom or to serve as anything other than an advisor. Not without clear Royal dispensation that would cost the Crown some level of support.

Maybe Merlin can infect him with nanobots, record/kill him, and then add him to Nahrman's VI. That might work. But that seems more than a little far-fetched!

I find that Dohlar and Desnair are the most interesting political developments yet to unfold. Silkiah appears to be the most certain of the current CoGA allies to change allegiance.

Dohlar appears to be headed dow the route Japan took after WWII. Between a vengefull ICN and thoroughly ticked off RSA, Dohlar will be trashed six ways to Sunday. I can see all of their infrastructure being flattened around Gorath. If Dairnyth was part of Dohlar, it won't be after the RSA and ICA finish. Dohlar's only hope is to capitulate before their army and navy gets gutted. I doubt Dohlar will do that short of a coup by Ahlvarez and Thirsk. I doubt that will happen, but it is possible.

Once completely trashed, Dohlar will need to rebuild and the CoGA will be too broke to help much. The only thing stopping Dohlar from becomming Germany after WWI will be Charisian investment. I can see the EoC taking/keeping Dragon, Trove and Claw islands as well as establishing a base in Siddermark controlled Dairnyth. That ICN presence will keep CoGA militaries out of Dohlar and desperation to rebuild the economy will gut the aristos power in favor of a stronger rule of law. I believe that Sharley will leverage the continued threat of complete conquest by Siddermark, the economic dominance of the EoC and the heavy ICN presence into irresitable incentives for Dohlar to change.

What will arise in Dohlar will be different from Charis but more like it than anyother CoGA loyalist power.

Desnair won't have the benefit of losing to Charis that thoroughly. No, a more likely scenario is that Harchong takes the juicier bits of Desnair's interior while Siddermark pushes far enough south through North Watch and into Hankey and Kohlman to secure its border with Desnair. Desnair then will lose much of their natural resources to South Harchong and its trade routes to Siddermark and Charis. There really won't be any strategic reason for Charis or the CoGA to work with Desnair if this happens. Desnair will be left to wallow in their miserable little corner of Howard. They'll look like Delfarahk writ large. How long can the aristos maintain their power under those circumstances? I doubt even one generation. What takes the aristos place depends on how quickly the EoC defeats the coGA.

All this happens while Silkiah seeks inclusion into the Republic of Siddermark. Control of the Slathar Canal and the Gulf of Jaharas will make them very wealthy. That wealth will smooth over the feathers of just about every Temple Loyalist that remains in silkiah.

I have to disagree with you regarding trying to assassinate Daivyn. After the failed attempt to kill Irys, Hektor's galant sacrifice and miraculous recovery; no attempt at Daivyn will convince most Corisandians they would be better off with the CoGA. A successful assassination will arouse more fury at the CoGA than Clyntahn aroused in Siddermark with the Sword of Schueler. Any analyst worth his salt will tell Rayno just that and he will pass it along to Clyntahn.

The CoGA will be much wiser to pull the cultural attacks like those made by the Soviet Union during the cold war. Much of the socialist movements arising in the US resulted from Soviet investment. The CoGA would be wise to invest in similar anti-Charisian, anti free market movements in all the other imperial nations. Be open about it and have the TE's openly support such policies and organizations as part of rights Charis has promissed to protect.

I was looking at the map of the Salthar canal, if there are any locks the COGA will destroy them to prevent free run of the iron clads down the river. If there are no locks then they will drop enough debris in the canal to block in what ever is sailing up followed up by blocking the other side miles upstream. siege warfare would eventually destroy what ever was trapped.

n7axw wrote:Welcome to the forums. I hope you enjoy the rough and tumble that happens here.

As for the subject at hand, I expect that Silkiah and Dohlar will be knocked out of the war as the next step. The Salthar Canal will be siezed by the EOC and used by to move its riverclads into the Gulf of Dohlar. With Charis controlling the seas on both sides of Howard, its isolation will be complete, rendering Desnair and South Harchong irellavant to the war.

Don

I believe dohlar will suffer internal upheavals, we know thirsk is in danger of being removed by the church as well as his followers, it is common knowledge, that thirsk set the navy up, and they would be bad off with out him.
I always saw them push him too far, or his men rebel once the church goes after him.
I always see dohlar getting so smashed up, that it would easily be kept as part of the republic, offering the republic access to the west coast, and the trade there.

SOuth harchong is the profitable section of the empire, so could desnair be tempted to go after it when it is broken from the north due to charis denying sea access.

bigrunt wrote:I was looking at the map of the Salthar canal
Don

Where are the maps for this? I've been looking all over for a decent cache of maps that can actually be easily accessed.