Eggs in a Basket

Thucydides wrote:Defeating the CoGA's armies might not be as easy as suggested, both because they are now catching up technologically, and also due to the sheer numbers (if they are extremely ruthless, they will drive waves of pikemen against entrenched ICA forces to make them expend their ammunition before the rifle armed troops advance. Think of Soviet "Penal Battalions" or how the Iranians drove waves of Basji against the Iraqis during the Iran -Iraq war).

The final result might be similar to the end of the third day at Gettysburg. The Confederates were defeated and driven from the Union position, but Mead simply could not set off to chase down Robert E Lee. His forces had to be reorganized (Sickles' destruction of 3 Corps and the mad scramble to send troops to fill the huge gap in the line was a huge impediment to command and control), as well as fed and replenished. The fact they and been doing hard marching in extreme heat and endured three days of violent combat also rendered the Union Army relatively combat ineffective.

So the huge CoGA force might be retreating after a series of battles, and ICA scout sniper teams might be hurrying them along and hitting logistics nodes along the way, but the bulk of the ICA forces will be spent and need a period of rest and reorganization before moving against the CoGA "homelands".

As for trying to eliminate the Grand Inquisator, remember that dictators often retain a personal magnetism that keeps followers in play right until the end. Watch the movie "Downfall" (Der Untergang) to see the most famous example ("Hitler, the last ten days" is also a great movie). Most other dictators also have this effect on people as well. The counter is when the collapse finally comes, it is often sudden and brutal.

There is no textev to suggest that the church is actually "catching up" technologically. To be sure they have had and will be implementing some new ideas such as the Ferguson rifles and the grenade launchers, but in the main, the gap is widening with church falling further behind.

Don

Randomiser wrote:Re Duchairn and Magwair, there seemed to be something under the surface going on in their discussion of withdrawing the pikemen from the Sylman Gap for re-arming. There was a definite conspiratorial air about it and it wasn't just that Clyntahn never likes withdrawals. However, looking at the maps the projected re-supply area still seemed to be too far south to affect Zion.

Obviously a putsch in the Inquisition wouldn't just get Clyntahn. The idea would be to roll over Raynho as soon after as possible and arrest as many of Clyntahn's high level sympathisers in the Inquisition in Zion as possible, having 'discovered' their corruption or sexual perversions or high crimes and misdemeanors or whatever. The council of vicars is afraid of Clyntahn, once he Raynho, and several others have died resisting arrest, are they still going to be afraid of whoever is left?

Something is afoot and RFC will have some twist to throw out. Trynair started the books as a focus but has had little development since. He has the ear of the Grand Vicar and may play a role down the road but you are correct that Duchairn at least is working his way to something grand . Maigwair may be his tool but not his confidant or co-conspirator. As Captain General he has his place of glory and is reveling in it.

I think you may be underestimating Maigwair. IMO we've seen that he's smarter than he appeared earlier in the series. We've also seen that he's concerned about how Clyntahn's actions will damage the war effort.

I don't know if he's a full partner in whatever Duchairn is planning or not, but IMO he could be.

dwileye13 wrote:
Something is afoot and RFC will have some twist to throw out. Trynair started the books as a focus but has had little development since. He has the ear of the Grand Vicar and may play a role down the road but you are correct that Duchairn at least is working his way to something grand . Maigwair may be his tool but not his confidant or co-conspirator. As Captain General he has his place of glory and is reveling in it.

DrakBibliophile wrote:I think you may be underestimating Maigwair. IMO we've seen that he's smarter than he appeared earlier in the series. We've also seen that he's concerned about how Clyntahn's actions will damage the war effort.

I don't know if he's a full partner in whatever Duchairn is planning or not, but IMO he could be.

dwileye13 wrote:
Something is afoot and RFC will have some twist to throw out. Trynair started the books as a focus but has had little development since. He has the ear of the Grand Vicar and may play a role down the road but you are correct that Duchairn at least is working his way to something grand . Maigwair may be his tool but not his confidant or co-conspirator. As Captain General he has his place of glory and is reveling in it.

Maigwair seems to have been designed to be underestimated. So good point. Duchairn has a plan and his support and influence with Maigwair is working the way he desires. It seems that other than their growing cooperation I don't feel any collusion. RFC will have his way though.

Killing Big C would change the dynamic of the Charissian story.

They were resisting the corrupt group of 4 headed up by the grand inquisitor who tried to destroy them...

But now he's dead and a reform movement is in place.

One that is willing to... talk reproachedment...

Whatever does one do then?

If Charis is smart, they will kill the treasurer and leave Big C alone. He's far too useful alive.

Mitchell, Esq. wrote:Killing Big C would change the dynamic of the Charissian story.

They were resisting the corrupt group of 4 headed up by the grand inquisitor who tried to destroy them...

But now he's dead and a reform movement is in place.

One that is willing to... talk reproachedment...

Whatever does one do then?

If Charis is smart, they will kill the treasurer and leave Big C alone. He's far too useful alive.

At least the big C helps Charis avoid premature peace treaties!

Don

n7axw wrote:
There is no textev to suggest that the church is actually "catching up" technologically. To be sure they have had and will be implementing some new ideas such as the Ferguson rifles and the grenade launchers, but in the main, the gap is widening with church falling further behind.

Don

I don't know If I'm quite so clear about that Don. The Church is about to sort out its steel production both administratively and by using the new processes it captured. They have a breech loading rifle easier to make than Charis' one and can make significant numbers of them. They have big rifled 'angle guns' coming onstream for the army. They are producing explosive shells. They have a somewhat clumsier mortar substitute that they can apparently produce using processes they are proficient in. It does seem to me that the Church is catching up to some degree technologically. Whether they can produce and deploy enough of this stuff quickly enough to turn the war round may well be a different question, but Charis certainly can't afford to relax just yet.

Randomiser wrote:

n7axw wrote:
There is no textev to suggest that the church is actually "catching up" technologically. To be sure they have had and will be implementing some new ideas such as the Ferguson rifles and the grenade launchers, but in the main, the gap is widening with church falling further behind.

Don

I don't know If I'm quite so clear about that Don. The Church is about to sort out its steel production both administratively and by using the new processes it captured. They have a breech loading rifle easier to make than Charis' one and can make significant numbers of them. They have big rifled 'angle guns' coming onstream for the army. They are producing explosive shells. They have a somewhat clumsier mortar substitute that they can apparently produce using processes they are proficient in. It does seem to me that the Church is catching up to some degree technologically. Whether they can produce and deploy enough of this stuff quickly enough to turn the war round may well be a different question, but Charis certainly can't afford to relax just yet.

It is true that they are advancing, but not as quickly or effectively as Charis. While they have come up with a rifle equal to or better than the Mandrayan, they would have to cut their production in half to substitute out for breach loaders and their overall firearms production is well behind Charis already. Then consider that the M96s will soon be coming off Charis' production lines to say nothing of revolvers and breech loading cannon. They are starting to use hydroaccumulators for their blast furnaces amd they do have one of Howsmyn's formulas for steel. But no stream even though they did steal a description of how it works. I doubt that they can even make more than the most rudimentary steam engine since they lack the ability to do precision machine work that Howsmyn has been at such pains to develop. Howsmyn is already using steam engines for his blast furnaces, power tools and installing them in ships. Maigwair, Lyncn (sp) and company are starting to organize their artisans into circles. But that's no match for assembly lines. Even worse, the church hasn't even introduced a common standard of measurement. On and on it goes.

The thing is, if all you can do is come up with counters for the other guy's ideas after you have been introduced to them in the most unpleasant possible fashion, you never catch up. The other guy has always got a new surprise waiting in the wings.

Therein lies the church's problem. As long as Clyntahn and the inquisition are keeping the lid on by threatening the heads of anyone who innovates, those who are smart enough to innovate will also be smart enough to keep their heads down to avoid losing them. So the church tries to come up with counters as the tech gap widens. Thus the church is stuck with what at best is a 16th century tech base while Charis' tech is approaching late 19th century.

Don

Randomiser wrote:I don't know If I'm quite so clear about that Don. The Church is about to sort out its steel production both administratively and by using the new processes it captured. They have a breech loading rifle easier to make than Charis' one and can make significant numbers of them. They have big rifled 'angle guns' coming onstream for the army. They are producing explosive shells. They have a somewhat clumsier mortar substitute that they can apparently produce using processes they are proficient in. It does seem to me that the Church is catching up to some degree technologically. Whether they can produce and deploy enough of this stuff quickly enough to turn the war round may well be a different question, but Charis certainly can't afford to relax just yet.

IMHO the Capacity of the Church to produce materials of War is going to take a severe hit. South Harchong will effectively be cut off except for the occasional blockade runner. Dohlar is going to be preoccupied with the ICA Bear at the Door and the ICN Shark in the Bay to contribute much to the CoGA. When spring has sprung, the Hsing-Wu Passage will be dominated by the Barges/Riverboats to the exclusion of anything else.

The Temple has overland transport and the repaired canals to work with at this time. That can change quickly. Just the appearance of a Riverbarge will get the Church to destroy their own system or have the locks captured. The battle with the Harchongese contingent is all the eggs in a basket.

A big part of this war will be about the canals. DO they have enough canal boats to deal with all the shipping? Not only to move stuff in the republic but in the dohlar kingdom as well. They are shipping to arm and suplly the harchong army all along the canal, while shipping food to feed their claimed lands and supples to aid their front positions. There is only so much room in the boats and on the cnals, and they can move only so fast.

the armored ships force the church in to a hard choice, allow the destruction of hteir locks to stop the enemy from advancing, but it would also stall any futures advancement.
The inquisitor is furious about keeping the land they have taken, but it is very possible that they might be pushed back to the border states, so if the canals are damaged there, then they would be limited in the way to retaking republic lands. The thing is it would be in their favor of charis and the republic to be able to hold them at the republic border, the thing that limited charis was man power. WIth the new alliance, the charisian could now help the republic place their troops in places realy mess up the war effort.
SAy they attack the other end of the langhorn canal, if the front can not recieve supplies then they are in a very poor position.

It is not the eggs taht are the prblem, it is moving and supplying them that will cause issues. with the fleet getting to the gulf of dohlar, then logistics there will be messed with worsening the chances of the church.

just because the church may loose, does not mean that the republic wont suffer. it would not be beyond the inquisitore to just send the whole harchong force even if they cant win, as there will always be more.