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Illogical decisions

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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by phillies   » Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:04 pm

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With respect to (3) at some point it will occur to someone to ask OWL what resources she needs to build an OBS neutralizer that she currently lacks, e.g. three ounces of white iron and nothing else. At the time she was first asked the question, she was being a tad literal-minded; she may have told the exact truth.

Of course, the exact truth could also be "400 tons of curium".


evilauthor wrote:
DrakBibliophile wrote:One individual has been complaining that one of David Weber's characters (Merlin) has ignored/won't do things that the individual thinks are logical actions.

I hope the following isn't taken as an attack on him or anybody else. It's just my thoughts on "logical or illogical decisions" of people and characters.

First and foremost, many people see the actions of others as "illogical" because they operate on different assumptions than the other person.

In any logical debate there are "premises" that the person based their arguments on. The problem is often that the other person may not accept the "premises" that the first person starts from. Even worse, in informal discussions, the premises may not be expressly stated and the person may not consciously realize what premises he is starting from. So another person operating with different premises, will find the statements as illogical.

Of course, there's also the problem of "incomplete" information. IE we think that a person's actions are illogical because the other person knows something we don't.


In Merlin's case though, many of the premises HAVE been stated in text. Among others...

1) The Temple is pretty much immune to anything short of a major nuclear strike or something of equivalent power.

2) Merlin wants to avoid any public appearance of being supernatural or supernatural events (like making whole fleets vanish without a trace) because such things would suppress the very spirit of Inquiry and Innovation that he wants to encourage.

3) Merlin doesn't have any weapon capable of harming the OBS, nor any capacity for building one. This just enforces the policy in point 2.

4) He's VERY paranoid about being detected by any automated security systems the "Angels" may have left behind to the point where he doesn't let anything of his get close to the Temple, and even SNARCs operating in Zion are operating in "no transmit" mode (they have to physically carry any intel out of what Merlin thinks is the Temple's detection radius before transmitting).

5) Merlin doesn't want to murder anyone he doesn't absolutely have to. This includes enemy spies and their messengers when it would be inconvenient to let them go. WHY he doesn't want to goes unstated, but it's generally left to the reader to assume that it's just because Merlin is a Good person. For that matter, one of the differences between the Good Guys and Bad Guys in this series is that the Bag Guys will do bad things to eliminate every little inconvenience (which often result in even bigger inconveniences, a commentary on why it's bad, no?) while the Good Guys will do the Right Thing even when it's inconvenient for them (like sending Rayjis Dragoner home instead of retaining him as Siddarmarkian ambassador).

6) As Cayleb himself stated, just having Merlin's SNARCs for recon and espionage is already the biggest advantage Charis has. There's no need for more cheats because Charis is already winning. Trying to use more cheats, ACTIVE cheats like using recon skimmers against the enemy risks flubbing the whole thing Dick Dastardly style (the guy's already well ahead of everyone else, why is he stopping to cheat?) and losing the war. Any and all direct intervention by high tech methods has always been done with pains taken to make sure it looked like it was done with mundane means by mundane (if hugely capable) people.
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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by evilauthor   » Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:07 pm

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bigrunt wrote:I recall RFC saying the equipment in the cave would be used at some point. evilauthor you are probably correct, but RFC has a habit of taking the story into directions that none of us would have imagined. (like the snipets to start HFQ)


Well sure. I'm not 100% certain that the TEMPLE will be what the Assault Shuttle and energy rifles will be used on.
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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by Caliban   » Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:50 pm

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Excellent posts,all.I just have a point or two to add...

There are some who unfortunately will always subscribe to the idea that the ends will always justify the means, no matter what damage the means may cause in the interim. As has been already noted, Hitler probably thought that his way was the only way to save Germany in the aftermath of WWI. At this point in time, it would be difficult for any of us today to truly understand the societal depression that existed then, with the economy having been thoroughly trashed and the rest of the world apparently vilifying them. His solution was apparently to rebuild the society by making them believe they were superior to the rest of humanity,and were therefore justified in taking what they wanted as a way of proving that superiority. Not to mention punishing those who had brought them to their reduced station.If some had to suffer, well,history would bear the victors out.

And they came darned close to succeeding...

There are many historical records of this type of mindset, and if those aren't enough just take a good look at the situation in various parts of the world today. 'Nuff said on this.

Merlin's mindset, IMO, is different for several reasons, but one tends to stand out to me: at the time of the war with the Gbaba, humanity had spread to several different star systems and had been wiped out in all of them, including (to the best of his knowledge) the Sol system.

The people there are all that are left. Every Single One of them is important to him. Note his irony at being the repository for all the world's religions, or his depression from having to kill the semaphore station keepers in order for the canal raid to succeed.

'Ends' and 'Means' require a balance that is acceptable.Many do not understand this balance, or otherwise choose to actively ignore it.
====================================


"A wise man speaks because he has something to say; A Fool speaks because he has to say something."
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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by Philip Stanley   » Tue Aug 26, 2014 5:11 pm

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This post is not a discussion of illogical decisions - it is a question regarding what seems to me to be a failure by Merlin to take a logical action.
In BSRA Merlin returns from the Monastery of Saint Zherneau and learns from OWL about the 212 colonists reprogrammed by Pei Shan-wei. He knows that four of these are Jeremiah and Evelyn Knowles and Kayleb and Jennifer Sarmac, the four who were placed in the Tellesberg colony.
My question is: why didn't he use OWL's resources to identify the colonies where the other 208 reprogrammed colonists were placed? That seems like such an obvious next step: to find out which other colonies had been seeded with Pei Shan-wei's "arrows" and if any of these colonies showed any sign of their influence.
Not to take this obvious step is not logical, and I can't help wondering why the omnipotent AUTHOR did not have Merlin do this. We're only finding out NOW (6 volumes later!) that one of the groups was placed in Zion, and even now we learn this not because of Merlin's researches, but because that group revealed themselves him.
I can only conclude that the AUTHOR has plans for these revelations of group locations in future plot arcs, and deliberately had Merlin fail to do the obvious research. IMHO it's a little manipulative, but what the heck, it's his universe.
Philip Stanley
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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by Boronian   » Tue Aug 26, 2014 6:17 pm

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Who said that Aivan's organisation springs from Alexandria? I thought they came from a whole different origin.

Merlin could find where the colonists had been sent to and I think he did look over Owl's results out of curiosity but how should he find out if there are survivors? They have to be very secretive, they are probably extincted. He could start swamping all the areas with snarcs but who checked the data? Well since Nahrmahn is dead he could maybe do it but it would cost a very hefty investment of time and ressources for an extreme low chance of success finding anything. Maybe the group doesn't exist anymore, maybe moved away to another place. Nahrmahn could use his time better IMO.


Philip Stanley wrote:This post is not a discussion of illogical decisions - it is a question regarding what seems to me to be a failure by Merlin to take a logical action.
...
My question is: why didn't he use OWL's resources to identify the colonies where the other 208 reprogrammed colonists were placed? That seems like such an obvious next step: to find out which other colonies had been seeded with Pei Shan-wei's "arrows" and if any of these colonies showed any sign of their influence.
Not to take this obvious step is not logical, and I can't help wondering why the omnipotent AUTHOR did not have Merlin do this. We're only finding out NOW (6 volumes later!) that one of the groups was placed in Zion, and even now we learn this not because of Merlin's researches, but because that group revealed themselves him.
I can only conclude that the AUTHOR has plans for these revelations of group locations in future plot arcs, and deliberately had Merlin fail to do the obvious research. IMHO it's a little manipulative, but what the heck, it's his universe.
Philip Stanley
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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by runsforcelery   » Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:33 pm

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Philip Stanley wrote:This post is not a discussion of illogical decisions - it is a question regarding what seems to me to be a failure by Merlin to take a logical action.
In BSRA Merlin returns from the Monastery of Saint Zherneau and learns from OWL about the 212 colonists reprogrammed by Pei Shan-wei. He knows that four of these are Jeremiah and Evelyn Knowles and Kayleb and Jennifer Sarmac, the four who were placed in the Tellesberg colony.
My question is: why didn't he use OWL's resources to identify the colonies where the other 208 reprogrammed colonists were placed? That seems like such an obvious next step: to find out which other colonies had been seeded with Pei Shan-wei's "arrows" and if any of these colonies showed any sign of their influence.
Not to take this obvious step is not logical, and I can't help wondering why the omnipotent AUTHOR did not have Merlin do this. We're only finding out NOW (6 volumes later!) that one of the groups was placed in Zion, and even now we learn this not because of Merlin's researches, but because that group revealed themselves him.
I can only conclude that the AUTHOR has plans for these revelations of group locations in future plot arcs, and deliberately had Merlin fail to do the obvious research. IMHO it's a little manipulative, but what the heck, it's his universe.
Philip Stanley


What makes you think he didn't do exactly that? :o


"Oh, bother!" said Pooh, as Piglet came back from the dead.
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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by Ramhawkfan   » Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:39 pm

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runsforcelery wrote:
Philip Stanley wrote:This post is not a discussion of illogical decisions - it is a question regarding what seems to me to be a failure by Merlin to take a logical action.
In BSRA Merlin returns from the Monastery of Saint Zherneau and learns from OWL about the 212 colonists reprogrammed by Pei Shan-wei. He knows that four of these are Jeremiah and Evelyn Knowles and Kayleb and Jennifer Sarmac, the four who were placed in the Tellesberg colony.
My question is: why didn't he use OWL's resources to identify the colonies where the other 208 reprogrammed colonists were placed? That seems like such an obvious next step: to find out which other colonies had been seeded with Pei Shan-wei's "arrows" and if any of these colonies showed any sign of their influence.
Not to take this obvious step is not logical, and I can't help wondering why the omnipotent AUTHOR did not have Merlin do this. We're only finding out NOW (6 volumes later!) that one of the groups was placed in Zion, and even now we learn this not because of Merlin's researches, but because that group revealed themselves him.
I can only conclude that the AUTHOR has plans for these revelations of group locations in future plot arcs, and deliberately had Merlin fail to do the obvious research. IMHO it's a little manipulative, but what the heck, it's his universe.
Philip Stanley


What makes you think he didn't do exactly that? :o


LOL
This makes the case why we shouldn't be too quick to criticize our illustrious Celery Chaser when we don't have all the textev yet.
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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by pokermind   » Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:41 pm

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OK any such organization must keep its activities hidden from the Inquisition, so what if anything would suggest the Monastery of St. Who Ever is a hot bed of unorthodoxy? If the Snarks could see it then the Inquisition would also.

Any unorthodox writings would be hidden, rarely viewed. A snark would be damn lucky to encounter them.

Lets face it there is a limited mumber of snarks and well there is a war on ;)

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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by Philip Stanley   » Tue Aug 26, 2014 11:27 pm

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When I posted earlier in this thread regarding Merlin's failure to research the other 208 reprogrammed colonists, I wasn't thinking of identifying the specific organization or location they may have established. It is probable that any organization or group they may have initially established would have been secret and concealed to prevent suppression by the Temple.
What I was thinking of was rather of a group's influence on the culture or beliefs of their region of Safehold by it's influence applied over the hundreds of years since the colonization of the planet. The group might have been clandestine, but it's influence might be more discerned.
Why, for instance, did Siddermark develop a republican form of government? Or Harchong or Desnair a slave/serf based culture (not all of the groups would necessarily influence a culture in the same direction)? This is what I meant when I said that Merlin should look for their "influences"
Philip Stanley
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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by DrakBibliophile   » Tue Aug 26, 2014 11:53 pm

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Two thoughts.

First, there's a war on. Resources spent on trying to identify "influences" are likely needed elsewhere.

Second, how do you identify influences? We now know about the actions of the Brethren and how they aided in creating the Charis that exists now. But how would Merlin and Owl be able to realize that some group influenced the development of the current Charis if they didn't already know how the Brethren influenced Charis?

I think even Prince Nahrmahn (after his death) would have a hard time examining all the threads of history that lead to the founding of Siddarmark's republic (for example) and discovering the traces of some hidden group's influences. Of course, Prince Nahrmahn would be busy assisting in the important intelligence work necessary in winning the current war.

I suspect that it would take an AI on the level of Dahak to uncover possible influences and Dahak doesn't exist in this story universe. :twisted: :twisted:




Philip Stanley wrote:When I posted earlier in this thread regarding Merlin's failure to research the other 208 reprogrammed colonists, I wasn't thinking of identifying the specific organization or location they may have established. It is probable that any organization or group they may have initially established would have been secret and concealed to prevent suppression by the Temple.
What I was thinking of was rather of a group's influence on the culture or beliefs of their region of Safehold by it's influence applied over the hundreds of years since the colonization of the planet. The group might have been clandestine, but it's influence might be more discerned.
Why, for instance, did Siddermark develop a republican form of government? Or Harchong or Desnair a slave/serf based culture (not all of the groups would necessarily influence a culture in the same direction)? This is what I meant when I said that Merlin should look for their "influences"
Philip Stanley
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