Reparations

Zakharra wrote:

Hutch wrote:I'm not quite as confident as you are about that, friend Zakharra. I keep thinking about all the loyal citizens of the Ottoman Empire, of Austria-Hungary, of the Soviet Union, who saluted the flag and sang the anthem--until they discovered they didn't have to anymore. Loyalty went out the window pretty quick, then, didn't it?

Beowulf is one of the oldest members of the SL, but according to ART, over 70% are ready to leave it, and we know from textev of several other planets that are seriously considering the same thing.

In my opinion (and I could be wrong and you are right), 'loyalty' and 'allegiance' to the SL is something that most people never think about--it's just the way things are, the way they have always been, and wasting time really thinking about it is not something people do.

Until now. And I think when people begin to think-hard-about it, SL citizenship will peel off faster than a bad sunburn.

We shall see...eventually.

I can't disagree with many of your points. It really is very iffy on what will happen, but (you knew that was coming, didn't you? ;D)I think the idea of the SL will be stronger than many would believe. Remember some have been members for 500-700 years. That's a looong time to be accepting an idea and I refuse to believe that all or most of the SL member states, the Core worlds certainly, would be so willing to just cast off the bonds of the SL (or the idea of it) just like that *snaps fingers* For many Core worlds, it has been a very good thing to be a part of the SL. They are used to thinking of being as a part of a group, of a larger whole and there is strength in numbers. Remember how shocked the assembly of delegates were when Beowulf said it would vote of seceding. Until then it was unheard of for anyone to think of wanting to leave the SL. The idea was abhorrent. Now though it will take on a life of its own when Beowulf survives the oncoming onslaught.

Jonathan_S wrote:

I can't disagree with many of your points. It really is very iffy on what will happen, but (you knew that was coming, didn't you? ;D)I think the idea of the SL will be stronger than many would believe. Remember some have been members for 500-700 years. That's a looong time to be accepting an idea and I refuse to believe that all or most of the SL member states, the Core worlds certainly, would be so willing to just cast off the bonds of the SL (or the idea of it) just like that *snaps fingers* For many Core worlds, it has been a very good thing to be a part of the SL. They are used to thinking of being as a part of a group, of a larger whole and there is strength in numbers. Remember how shocked the assembly of delegates were when Beowulf said it would vote of seceding. Until then it was unheard of for anyone to think of wanting to leave the SL. The idea was abhorrent. Now though it will take on a life of its own when Beowulf survives the oncoming onslaught.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Zakharra,

I'm curious, what 3 core worlds do you know of that can threaten Manticore or the GA, or any 3 of their core system neighbors?

The 'Honor doctrine' didn't identify any by name and suggested that even blocks of 50-60 systems weren't going to be much of a threat to the SEM when their neighbors were a more immediate and logical concern.

Given the ignorance in the SL, especially in Old Chicago by their nominal leaders, the SL members are still ignorant of how deeply they are outclassed, as in so many deliberately refusing to face facts, and they still don't know just how great the gap is, because Honor didn't tell them everything when she explained the 'facts' to Filaretta.

Then there's the fact that the GA won't be hitting that much of the SL in the first place; primarily just the SLN bases, and particularly the BF reserve, which is in only 6-7 systems including Sol, so why do you think the GA has to be so careful about 'appearing to be a bully' when most [~90+%?] of the SL members aren't going to see the GA in their system or have any real animus toward the GA because the GA will never visit or harm them; those with SLN bases may see the local SLN given the option of surrendering, joining the GA or an approved local defensive coalition or neutral combine or cooperative or being destroyed; since they were little affected by the SL in the first place according to textev and RFC's posts, if they weren't in the shells being hurt by deliberate SL policies?

For years here and at the bar, the pros and cons of taking out the BF reserve have been debated; given the SL's expected short lifespan remaining, taking it out after its gratuitous attack on Beowulf seems rather indicated, with the blessing of all those thinking of leaving the sinking ship, while most of the shell systems have been held back by the fear of the reserve; so watching the BF SD's etc get trashed or simply dropped into the local sun may celebrated system wide throughout the ex-SL; the core, the shells, and the ex-protectorates; possibly becoming a very huge multi-system annual holiday jointly celebrated with the GA.

For those who suffered under the OFS before becoming full fledged members of the SL (I still have questions as to how and why the OFS and transtellar let go without still controlling the systems behind the facade-who would make them) watching the GA strike them down will be a treat before they sign up.

Given the several years minimum it takes to build the ships and the decades to create a navy, even those few systems with a grudge will have a long hard time trying to convince their many neighbors who don't, that building a navy to avenge the SL is worth the trouble when the advantages of the 'Honor Doctrine' are obvious and far more immediately beneficial.

We have had textev that there are Jewish and Japanese 'leagues' or coalitions in the SL among others, with the implication that multi-system polities are quite possible in the SL, and could easily survive its dissolution.

While RFC plotted all of this out long ago, the next book will still be a treat!

L

Zakharra wrote:I was using the number example someone else gave. Personally I think it would take 8-12 Core worlds at, least to equal, the GDP of Manticore. Manticore's GDP is damned big because its based on the revenue that it's trade fleets bring in.

Zakharra wrote:I haven't gotten the latest book yet, but given what I've seen posted here, Honor and Manticore (the rest of the Ga seems irrelevant for some reason) don't want to allow -any- SL successor state to exist that could threaten them. I expect that plan to run into reality and be derailed somewhat (not counting the wrenches the MAlign throws in) and the GA have to accept some moderate to possibly large SL successor states existing. As long as they are neutral or friendly. As someone said before, any such states are going to be far more concerned with the systems/states around them than the SEM/GA.

Weird Harold wrote:

Zakharra wrote:I was using the number example someone else gave. Personally I think it would take 8-12 Core worlds at, least to equal, the GDP of Manticore. Manticore's GDP is damned big because its based on the revenue that it's trade fleets bring in.

The three aggressive Core Worlds example was mine. It was based on tech level and manufacturing capability rather than economy.

Zakharra wrote:I haven't gotten the latest book yet, but given what I've seen posted here, Honor and Manticore (the rest of the Ga seems irrelevant for some reason) don't want to allow -any- SL successor state to exist that could threaten them. I expect that plan to run into reality and be derailed somewhat (not counting the wrenches the MAlign throws in) and the GA have to accept some moderate to possibly large SL successor states existing. As long as they are neutral or friendly. As someone said before, any such states are going to be far more concerned with the systems/states around them than the SEM/GA.

You're forgetting that a major component of the Harrington Doctrine is "mutual defense treaties" with the SEM/GA. The more mutual defense treaties that can be signed, the larger potential threats can be dismissed as "too small to threaten us."

The Harrington Doctrine was stated as Manticoran strategy before the Grand Alliance was formed, but the assumption that, as the focus of SL aggression, Manticore would have a large input to GA strategy and the Harrington Doctrine would become GA Strategy as well.

Zakharra wrote:If they are neutral, I think they would be left alone.

Zakharra wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi Zakharra,

I'm curious, what 3 core worlds do you know of that can threaten Manticore or the GA, or any 3 of their core system neighbors?

The 'Honor doctrine' didn't identify any by name and suggested that even blocks of 50-60 systems weren't going to be much of a threat to the SEM when their neighbors were a more immediate and logical concern.

[snip]

Given the several years minimum it takes to build the ships and the decades to create a navy, even those few systems with a grudge will have a long hard time trying to convince their many neighbors who don't, that building a navy to avenge the SL is worth the trouble when the advantages of the 'Honor Doctrine' are obvious and far more immediately beneficial.

L

I was using the number example someone else gave. Personally I think it would take 8-12 Core worlds at, least to equal, the GDP of Manticore. Manticore's GDP is damned big because its based on the revenue that it's trade fleets bring in. That gives it a much much bigger revenue stream than any other system or very small groups of systems can complete with. I think a block of Core worlds and Shell systems that are a part of them could easily be a threat given time. That's more than enough to have a vigorous economy (I bet that many of the successor states will be pushing for their own merchant hulls rather than relying on Manticore hulls. Manticore ones being cheaper or not, I can't see -any- of them wanting to give Manticore the power to cripple their economies like they did the SL again), naval bases and an active R&D. I haven't gotten the latest book yet, but given what I've seen posted here, Honor and Manticore (the rest of the Ga seems irrelevant for some reason) don't want to allow -any- SL successor state to exist that could threaten them. I expect that plan to run into reality and be derailed somewhat (not counting the wrenches the MAlign throws in) and the GA have to accept some moderate to possibly large SL successor states existing. As long as they are neutral or friendly. As someone said before, any such states are going to be far more concerned with the systems/states around them than the SEM/GA. Unless the SEM makes them focus on the SEM.

Jonathan_S wrote:Even with 8-12 core worlds I think they'd need a mulch-decade singular focus on revenge to become a real threat to Manticore. Basically put their economies on a prolonged war footing to do the focused R&D and then fleet building necessary to overcome the GA's current military advantage.

Jonathan_S wrote:I think the Honor Doctrine was more worried about economic concentrations large enough that they could casually build up militaries large enough to bully everyone else. Once they have the military then they start looking for ways to use it and getting even with Manticore might strike some politician as a good way to gain votes or influence.