Zakharra wrote:Hutch wrote:*quote="Zakharra"*If three Core worlds that stick together is an unacceptable threat, the SEM has already lost the war. As I and others keep pointing out, past a certain nebulous point, anything Manticore and the GA do militarily WILL backfire on them. Badly. Because it's going to be very clear that nothing in the SL is capable of standing up to the SEM/GA militarily. The SLN is seriously outclassed and everyone will know it, so if the SL ceases all military action and sues for peace and admits culpability and such, if the GA continues military operations it will be seen as the bully, the aggressor against a helpless opponent. And I doubt the GA could demand the SL break itself up. That would be taken badly too.
True enough, which makes the politics and diplomacy of the GA just as important as their Battle Fleets. They have got to find the right balance between hitting hard enough and 'making new friends', so that there is no political will to build fleets to oppose the SEM/RH.
And that's going to be a tough tightrope to walk.
However, if you're a new polity of 20+ Core and Shell worlds with a combined GSP equalling or topping the SEM, you may be more worried about that agressive neighbor-state of ex-SL worlds than the SEM and are more than happy to sign treaties of protection/trade/peace while you figure out how to run a mult-system government on your own.
And remember..the SEM/RH/GA is only going to get stronger, as Verge/Protectorate worlds shake off the effects of the OFS/Transtellars and look to grow on their own--with Manty Freighters hauling the trade.
Zakharra wrote:I think that's misquoted. The average SL citizen identifies themselves as their system/planet first, then as a Solarian citizen, but the idea of being a Solarian citizen is a very strong tie and idea. Otherwise the SL would have fallen apart long ago. It's clear there is a loyalty to the idea of the SL, I don't think it's as weak as people think it might be in the Core and the systems closest to the Core.
I'm not quite as confident as you are about that, friend Zakharra. I keep thinking about all the loyal citizens of the Ottoman Empire, of Austria-Hungary, of the Soviet Union, who saluted the flag and sang the anthem--until they discovered they didn't have to anymore. Loyalty went out the window pretty quick, then, didn't it?
Beowulf is one of the oldest members of the SL, but according to ART, over 70% are ready to leave it, and we know from textev of several other planets that are seriously considering the same thing.
In my opinion (and I could be wrong and you are right), 'loyalty' and 'allegiance' to the SL is something that most people never think about--it's just the way things are, the way they have always been, and wasting time really thinking about it is not something people do.
Until now. And I think when people begin to think-hard-about it, SL citizenship will peel off faster than a bad sunburn.
We shall see...eventually.*quote*
I can't disagree with many of your points. It really is very iffy on what will happen, but (you knew that was coming, didn't you? ;D)I think the idea of the SL will be stronger than many would believe. Remember some have been members for 500-700 years. That's a looong time to be accepting an idea and I refuse to believe that all or most of the SL member states, the Core worlds certainly, would be so willing to just cast off the bonds of the SL (or the idea of it) just like that *snaps fingers* For many Core worlds, it has been a very good thing to be a part of the SL. They are used to thinking of being as a part of a group, of a larger whole and there is strength in numbers. Remember how shocked the assembly of delegates were when Beowulf said it would vote of seceding. Until then it was unheard of for anyone to think of wanting to leave the SL. The idea was abhorrent. Now though it will take on a life of its own when Beowulf survives the oncoming onslaught.
Also, a large group of Core worlds could use the threat of succession as a lever against the Mandarins, to gain political/economic advantage in order to stay in the League and the Mandarins would be very hard pressed to go back on their word too. In all, I could see some form of the SL surviving, just changed politically, ie, a more effective government and no Mandarins anymore. It again comes down to if the SL does sue for peace and ceases all military action, the longer the GA/SEM keeps up military operations, the worse the GA/SEM looks for beating on a helpless foe. This is something the SEM and Ga should be aware of. Despite any promises to make sure the SL or its successor states aren't large enough to pose a threat, the Harrington doctrine is going to run into some serious problems if they do keep military activities going on if the things I outlined earlier happen.
I do agree the successor states will be likely more concerned about the other successor states near them than the SEM/GA if the SEM/GA leaves them alone. In those cases it would be better to take a diplomatic route and hope for the best.
I also expect the MAlign's plan to run into a series of mistakes when the SL collapses. The MAlign has already messed up with the SEM and Haven and the forming of the GA, as well as Torch and the plans of the Maya sector governor. It's extremely likely there will be other unforeseen events that derail the MAlign's plans with the SL. Successful warlords/governors/admirals succeeding in holding together groups of systems, forming small but locally powerful states. Some wiwll fall but I again refuse to believe that the Malign
or the SEM/GA will be able to get the SL to collapse as much as they want. Not without writer fiat. In many ways RFC is an exemplary writer. He has extraordinary world consistency and in his many books and universes, believable action/reactions in politics, economics and military actions. I think RFC has taken the possible results of the SL collapse into account and I hope he can make it realistic.
Well, there was the sword duel thing on Grayson, but I don't thing trials against giant corporations would go that way
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