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Resource Limits

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Re: Resource Limits
Post by lyonheart   » Sun Aug 17, 2014 2:31 am

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Hi PeterZ,

free markets are indeed powerful, so no argument with your first paragraph. ;)

I do quibble about Siddarmark; while much of the western provinces has been destroyed, the republic's core is still intact and functioning well, though changes to adapt to the new circumstances are obvious and expected.

In regards to Dohlar, I doubt we'd have this much face time with Thirsk and Ahlverez if they weren't just going to survive but become even more important, who along with the Duke of Fern would make a great regency team for whichever of Rahnyld's younger uncorrupted sons that can pass the 'ain't like his dad' test.

How much of Dohlar they get to keep is another interesting question. :D

Regarding Silkiah, yes its familiar with Charis and Siddarmark in terms of markets, but it still has serfs, a grand duke, and an aristocracy of sorts so it has some stumbling blocks to overcome if they aren't eliminated as part of the treaty joining the allies.

Will some of those ex-serfs move the short distance to western Siddarmark to become citizens in their own right?

But how many Siddamarkians will ever truly trust any 'foreigner' after the SoS stab in the back?

L


PeterZ wrote:Voluntary exchange is a concept Milton Friedman describes in Capitalism and Freedom. It emphasizes both parties of an exchange reaching a voluntary agreement based on a clear understanding of what is being exchanged. Things like a company store, monopolies, deceptive advertising and threats compelling a participant would inhibit voluntary exchange.

Now which nations are most likely to embrace innovation? I suspect the three that have the biggest incentive to do so are Siddermark, Silkiah and Dohlar. Siddermark has had its social structure destroyed. It is rebuilding in many case from nothing. It needs to revive its economy or face another round of foreign aggression. It is easier to embrace the new ways because the old ways have been destroyed in many parts of Siddermark. There is nothing resisting being displaced.

The same might soon be said of Dohlar. After the KH VIIs flatten Gorath and send those aristorats scurrying to safety and the RSA destroys the RDA, there might well be a vacuum. Whatever/whoever replaces the old guard has a powerful incentive to establish a new order that depends on the new government. That argues for the new government finding the most effective way to produce things and the heck with the old aristos and guildmasters.

Silkiah will be under Chraisian influence because of the Salthar-Silktown Canal. Charis will get access to it after this phase of the war no matter the outcome. That access will also mean ensuring that access. That sort of exposure will bleed innovative tendencies into Silkiah.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Resource Limits
Post by lyonheart   » Sun Aug 17, 2014 4:09 am

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Hi PeterZ,

Delferahk is too far out of the war, NTM far too poor for anyone to bother with for the near future, although funding canals connecting the lakes to the west coast are a possibility later.

If Desnar or somebody were to invade, the cost of the invasion and governing would be more than any possible profit so far as we readers know at the moment, like many places on earth, despite being a 'basket case', no one what the aggravation or expense of putting things to rights.

The Border States are helpless right now, and won't get much chance to rearm before the MHoGatA is defeated by the alliance, so how is the Go4 going to create an army out of nothing in time to save them?

as it is, the eastern half of the KotTL ought start getting worried about whose going to save them. 8-)

Who knows, perhaps its part of Duchairn's plan that the KotTL have to create a new local army that's vastly larger than Clyntahn's inquisitor units.

In any case, between their serfs, their local levelers, and the alliance, the Border States are toast, I just don't see where the 'Zionist forces' would come from in the first place.

Granted having a neutral place where both ideologies compete from an equal initial footing is an interesting concept, I don't think that ever happens in the real world, because of pre-existing factors, several in this case.

South Harchong has many reasons to shift its flag as the war wears on and the peacetime opportunities continue to grow.

While its possible Desnar is South Harchong's first target of conquest, thus its army will be fighting on its own land reduces much of its logistical Achilles heel liability means it might be easier to grab whatever it wants from Sodar and/or the former princedoms of Selkar and Myratha now part of Delferahk, though none of them is currently worth the bother.

Before South Harchong decides to dominate Howard, building up its own industries will be its first priority, and that means reaching an accommodation with the EoC and particularly the ICN, the principle reason for its autonomy or independence from North Harchong, ie until its secure at home I don't expect many adventures abroad.

L


PeterZ wrote:Those nations that might choose to adopt innovation and be open to the societal changes required to actually sustain an industrialized economy but haven't been destroyed first are Delfarahk, the Border Kingdoms and South Harchong.

South Harchong has more merchants than up north. Those merchants might gain more influence if their goods lead to greater wealth. The aristos and bureaucrats could lay off to enable the merchants to produce more weapons and goods to secure South Harchongs position. If my suspicion about South Harchong taking Desnarii territory is correct, then the merchant/industrialists might make another leg of the South Harchong power structure.

The Border Kingdoms will be either a demilitarized zone or jointly occupied by Zionist forces and Allied forces. Both sides will be trying new things to gain advantage. Whatever passes for private enterprise in the area will powerful incentives to look for better ways to do things to adapt to the changing environment.

Delfarahk is a small kingdom that might recognize their only chance of remaining independent in a Howard devoid of the CoGA to check powerful imperial and aggressive neighbors. That recognition might lead to begging their Imperial Duchess and Princess cousin's gracious pardon for prior offences and Fugger begging to be included in the Empire of Charis.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Resource Limits
Post by 6L6   » Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:24 am

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Like Earth most of the population of Safehold must live near the coast or along the rivers. It would be possible for Charis to equalize the advantages the COG has in population and production by raiding the coast and sending quick strikes up the rivers. Turn up the heat a notch or two. Since the navy is no longer fighting for it's life that would give them something to do until peace breaks out.
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Re: Resource Limits
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Aug 18, 2014 9:23 am

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Hey Lyonheart,

Regarding Delfarahk, should it become an ally of the EoC, it could be one of the prime sources of supply for ICN squadrons patroling South Howard. Sure, the ICN needs to setup bases on Greentree Island, Westbreak Island and Sampson's Land. None of those bases will have a large population supporting it initially. An ICN base in Delfarahk with supporting warehouse storage and some industrial capability would ease the burden of supporting operations in Southwest Howard.

I am not saying this outcome is likely, but Delfarahk has some strategic value for the Empire. Its poverty would make shifting its manufacturing processes easier to push through. Still would be tough to make the complete transition, but Delfarahk would have more incentives than most. A debt riddled CoGA wouldn't have the resources to help Delfarahk rebuild. Desnar might be pushed by an expansionist South Harchong into Delfarahk. At one point King Zhames would have to recognize the precarious spot his kingdom is in and consider his options. One of them would have to crawling to Irys and begging for forgiveness.
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Re: Resource Limits
Post by 6L6   » Mon Aug 18, 2014 6:18 pm

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Hi Peter Z
King Zames might not get the chance to beg Irys for forgiveness due to a sudden loss of height.
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Re: Resource Limits
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Aug 18, 2014 6:21 pm

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6L6 wrote:Hi Peter Z
King Zames might not get the chance to beg Irys for forgiveness due to a sudden loss of height.


There is that additional risk of waiting. Hurry up, Jamie-boy!
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Re: Resource Limits
Post by n7axw   » Mon Aug 18, 2014 7:11 pm

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PeterZ wrote:
6L6 wrote:Hi Peter Z
King Zames might not get the chance to beg Irys for forgiveness due to a sudden loss of height.


There is that additional risk of waiting. Hurry up, Jamie-boy!


I kinda see Zhames as more of a victim in all of what has happened than anything else. He got caught between Charis and the COGA. He never really wanted the conflict with Cayleb, but got it anyway. I would hope that Cayleb would recognize that and ease off a bit.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Resource Limits
Post by lyonheart   » Tue Aug 19, 2014 3:36 am

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Hi PeterZ,

I'm not sure how much of a naval base between Westbreak Island and Samson's land is needed since the distance between them is only 3500 miles, before reducing it by half because its beyond 60 degrees latitude.

So the need to cultivate Delferahk is a bit less than you suggest.

While its possible that Cayleb and Sharleyan may indeed take mercy on King Zhames, there's no hurry for the navy's sake at the moment.

Given the sheer size of Desnar, fleeing into Delferahk seems passing strange even if South Harchong could advance so easily on such a wide front, especially given the disparity in population 3 or 4 to 1 in favor of Desnar.

Now having to beg Irys and Daivyn for help is such an ironic twist, it may just happen because RFC can't resist it. :D

L


PeterZ wrote:Hey Lyonheart,

Regarding Delfarahk, should it become an ally of the EoC, it could be one of the prime sources of supply for ICN squadrons patroling South Howard. Sure, the ICN needs to setup bases on Greentree Island, Westbreak Island and Sampson's Land. None of those bases will have a large population supporting it initially. An ICN base in Delfarahk with supporting warehouse storage and some industrial capability would ease the burden of supporting operations in Southwest Howard.

I am not saying this outcome is likely, but Delfarahk has some strategic value for the Empire. Its poverty would make shifting its manufacturing processes easier to push through. Still would be tough to make the complete transition, but Delfarahk would have more incentives than most. A debt riddled CoGA wouldn't have the resources to help Delfarahk rebuild. Desnar might be pushed by an expansionist South Harchong into Delfarahk. At one point King Zhames would have to recognize the precarious spot his kingdom is in and consider his options. One of them would have to crawling to Irys and begging for forgiveness.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Resource Limits
Post by Thucydides   » Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:54 pm

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Some of the poor aristocracies mentioned *might* be able to surprise everyone by adopting the sorts of organizational forms that were pioneered in Japan and South Korera.
(Japanese Keiretsu; Korean Chaebol).

Going by various names, the general format is a web of banks, companies and suppliers in a vertically integrated structure (generally more vertical in Korea), with the various boards of directors of these structures sharing many common members, or sometimes having a corporate super board overseeing the smaller corporate boards in the structure.

A dramatic oversimplification to be sure, but small, resource poor nations like Japan and Korea went from impoverished agrarian societies (or being smashed flat by the vengeful Allied forces) into industrial and scientific powerhouses, despite having to import a large fraction of their energy and material resources.

With RFC, you never know... :o
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Re: Resource Limits
Post by PeterZ   » Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:20 pm

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Japan is an excellent example, Thucydides. One of the exceptions to the keiretsu model illustrates the benefits for open markets even in Japan's merchantile oligarchy. That exception is Honda. Sochiro Honda started business after WWII installing engines on bicycles. Most of the other major keiretsu like Toyota began in the Meiji Era. That Japan's oligarchy allowed this upstart to grow spoke well of Japan's adaptability as well as their desperation after WWII.

That exactly the sort of adaptable desperation needed to invite huge social change to solve economic problems.
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