Resource Limits

PeterZ wrote:

n7axw wrote:
Hi Peter,

The foundations may crumble, but they are still really all we have to speculate on. My own record in picking up on unexpected twists and turns is exacty 0%. I was caught completely out on Ashes of Victory. There I've admitted it!

The arc of the story seems clear though. Charis starts off alone. Then with Merlin's assistance she survives, but still a tiny percentage of the world's population and resources. Then through a combination of persuasion, marriage and conquest, she is strenthened as her percentage of people and resources improves. Now a major mainland nation, Siddarmark is by alliance in her camp. In the meantime, her tech through innovation and Merlin's assistance continues to improve.

That is the arc of the story. Will there be twists and turns? Yep. Will I sucessfully pick up on them? Given my percentage, in all likelihood, no (sigh).

Don

Excellent summation, Don! We do need to add one or two important points. First, Charis' prime enemy is correct in what it accuses Charis of. Second, Charis' enemies have been taught to build their society upon lies. These two points have to be addressed and they can muddy the plot waters pretty thoroughly.

I suspect that the story arc so far aschewed these points to address the low hanging plot fruit; the means Charis has to defend itself against the liars. By surviving the liars' aggression Charis highlights the inconsistencies generated by the great lie. That's fine as far as it goes. It just strikes me that assuming that state of affairs will continue is very much like any Elvis Santino threat appraisal. It assumes too much.

That the limits in Charisian resources will continue to be overcome through alliances and more rapid productivity increases than its enemies might be assumptions that are insupportable. Good strategists will plan for as many ways as they can to overcome those limits in resources as additional layers. Sort of like Nimue's PICA and Shan-wei's seedlings.

There is a ceiling on how developed the tech can become without electricity. Yet beneath that ceiling the potential for exploring what they already have and finding new applications for it are almost limitless.

Something I would like to see explored is the relationship between culture and industrialization. Less than a third of earth's people live in industrialized societies. Why? What hinders the others? How might considering this help us predict which parts of Safehold will industrialize?

This discussion probably deserves a separate thread of its own.

Don

Well, Don, I have my guesses.

Industrialization require investment. People take their savings and invest in new ideas. Looking at those societies that are least industrialized in our world and you will find societies that have significant barriers to investment. Either heavy corruption or very uncertain regulatory environment. When the laws as applied are vague regarding who owns what and who owes what, few people will invest savings in non-liquid assets.

Africa has loads of natural resources and Hong Kong has none. Yet, Africa is poverty stricken on a per capital basis and Hong Kong wealthy.

PeterZ wrote:Well, Don, I have my guesses.

Industrialization require investment. People take their savings and invest in new ideas. Looking at those societies that are least industrialized in our world and you will find societies that have significant barriers to investment. Either heavy corruption or very uncertain regulatory environment. When the laws as applied are vague regarding who owns what and who owes what, few people will invest savings in non-liquid assets.

Africa has loads of natural resources and Hong Kong has none. Yet, Africa is poverty stricken on a per capital basis and Hong Kong wealthy.

This is exactly the sort of thing I'm refering to. Honest, consistantly applied governance where rule of law is enshrined and practiced is a biggie. That one would be number one on my list too. A second would be an educated workforce at least to the extent of basic literacy. Infrastructure such as roads are needed. Routes providing upward mobility for the deserving ambitious are needed. Available jobs need to put enough in people's pockets to provide a basic living standard thus creating markets for business to sell the products that it employs people to make.

Those are all important items. I'm going to cut this post off for now. There are some intangibles to include before we try applying this to Safehold, but I need some sleep....nite, nite!

Don

Don,

I would add voluntary exchange as a core regulatory principle before an educated workforce. If people choose what will buy and not buy rather than being forced in some way, they influence what is made and create incentives to improve products and services.

It is the incentive to improve that encourages people to get educated, support higher costs to improve infrastructure, demand honest disclosure of information and all the rest of industrialized nations have developed.

PeterZ wrote:Don,

I would add voluntary exchange as a core regulatory principle before an educated workforce. If people choose what will buy and not buy rather than being forced in some way, they influence what is made and create incentives to improve products and services.

It is the incentive to improve that encourages people to get educated, support higher costs to improve infrastructure, demand honest disclosure of information and all the rest of industrialized nations have developed.

I'm not completely sure of your term here... a free market that is competitive, yes. Regulation should prevent people from privileging themselves at the expense of others...

Some cultures manage to promote being industrious better than others. There are places where the fruit of one's labor belongs to someone other than the one doing the working which destroys incentive. A heritage of inventiveness and innovation. It was the invention of the steam engine that kicked off the industrial revolution in England along with a host of other things at about the same time.

So... to return to Safehold, which areas are the best candidates for industrialization and which will lag behind? Charis is obviously first on the list. Chisholm is also there although the ride might get a bit bumpy with the aristrocracy and the guilds. Other lands in the EOC probably have a leg up especially in the area of good governance. Southern Harchong could be a candidate, considering its bias toward artisans and trade. Siddarmark is a natural with its social contract of participatory government. Silkiah makes the list because of its familiarity with finance and trade.

Now for my list of lag behinders... Northeran Harchong with its heritage of slavery and an aristocracy of land owners keeping the lid capped tight...although if the cap blows off who knows how that will turn out, although judging by earth's experience it won't be good...a bumpy ride indeed. Desnair faces the same trouble to a lesser extent. The borderlands seem to be worse off than most everyplace else... isolated and more or less out of sight.

My question marks??? Temple Lands... some upward mobility and yeomanry not tied to the land but the hand of the inquisition has been pretty heavy. Dohlar...a traditional social contract but the crown wants to expand trade even though we don't think much of Raynauld. Also Dohlar is the most successful of the COGA's minions in adjusting to and producing the new weapons. Take away the inquisition and good things might happen. What about poor olo Delfarak... Zhames at least was wanting to promote commercial activity until getting caught between Charis and the COGA destroyed his ports, his navy and merchant marine.

As we consider the notion of Charis falling behind for lack of numbers, my point is that not all numbers are the same. Large areas of Safehold, perhaps better than half, will lack the necessary ingredients for industrialization even has been true on Earth. In some areas the social contract, the influence of the COGA will inhibit economic growth long after the political power of the church is broken and the inquisition is gone.

I obviously don't know how it will all shake out, but these are my guesses and the rest of you are invited to take a shot at it.

Don

Voluntary exchange is a concept Milton Friedman describes in Capitalism and Freedom. It emphasizes both parties of an exchange reaching a voluntary agreement based on a clear understanding of what is being exchanged. Things like a company store, monopolies, deceptive advertising and threats compelling a participant would inhibit voluntary exchange.

Now which nations are most likely to embrace innovation? I suspect the three that have the biggest incentive to do so are Siddermark, Silkiah and Dohlar. Siddermark has had its social structure destroyed. It is rebuilding in many case from nothing. It needs to revive its economy or face another round of foreign aggression. It is easier to embrace the new ways because the old ways have been destroyed in many parts of Siddermark. There is nothing resisting being displaced.

The same might soon be said of Dohlar. After the KH VIIs flatten Gorath and send those aristorats scurrying to safety and the RSA destroys the RDA, there might well be a vacuum. Whatever/whoever replaces the old guard has a powerful incentive to establish a new order that depends on the new government. That argues for the new government finding the most effective way to produce things and the heck with the old aristos and guildmasters.

Silkiah will be under Chraisian influence because of the Salthar-Silktown Canal. Charis will get access to it after this phase of the war no matter the outcome. That access will also mean ensuring that access. That sort of exposure will bleed innovative tendencies into Silkiah.

Those nations that might choose to adopt innovation and be open to the societal changes required to actually sustain an industrialized economy but haven't been destroyed first are Delfarahk, the Border Kingdoms and South Harchong.

South Harchong has more merchants than up north. Those merchants might gain more influence if their goods lead to greater wealth. The aristos and bureaucrats could lay off to enable the merchants to produce more weapons and goods to secure South Harchongs position. If my suspicion about South Harchong taking Desnarii territory is correct, then the merchant/industrialists might make another leg of the South Harchong power structure.

The Border Kingdoms will be either a demilitarized zone or jointly occupied by Zionist forces and Allied forces. Both sides will be trying new things to gain advantage. Whatever passes for private enterprise in the area will powerful incentives to look for better ways to do things to adapt to the changing environment.

Delfarahk is a small kingdom that might recognize their only chance of remaining independent in a Howard devoid of the CoGA to check powerful imperial and aggressive neighbors. That recognition might lead to begging their Imperial Duchess and Princess cousin's gracious pardon for prior offences and Fugger begging to be included in the Empire of Charis.

PeterZ wrote:Voluntary exchange is a concept Milton Friedman describes in Capitalism and Freedom. It emphasizes both parties of an exchange reaching a voluntary agreement based on a clear understanding of what is being exchanged. Things like a company store, monopolies, deceptive advertising and threats compelling a participant would inhibit voluntary exchange.

Now which nations are most likely to embrace innovation? I suspect the three that have the biggest incentive to do so are Siddermark, Silkiah and Dohlar. Siddermark has had its social structure destroyed. It is rebuilding in many case from nothing. It needs to revive its economy or face another round of foreign aggression. It is easier to embrace the new ways because the old ways have been destroyed in many parts of Siddermark. There is nothing resisting being displaced.

The same might soon be said of Dohlar. After the KH VIIs flatten Gorath and send those aristorats scurrying to safety and the RSA destroys the RDA, there might well be a vacuum. Whatever/whoever replaces the old guard has a powerful incentive to establish a new order that depends on the new government. That argues for the new government finding the most effective way to produce things and the heck with the old aristos and guildmasters.

Silkiah will be under Chraisian influence because of the Salthar-Silktown Canal. Charis will get access to it after this phase of the war no matter the outcome. That access will also mean ensuring that access. That sort of exposure will bleed innovative tendencies into Silkiah.

Your list pretty well correlates with mine for somewhat different reasons. I think Silkiah has the pretty strong advantage of being pretty cosmopolitan before the war due to its strong emphasis on trade and prior exposure to Charisian influences.

Don

PeterZ wrote:Those nations that might choose to adopt innovation and be open to the societal changes required to actually sustain an industrialized economy but haven't been destroyed first are Delfarahk, the Border Kingdoms and South Harchong.

South Harchong has more merchants than up north. Those merchants might gain more influence if their goods lead to greater wealth. The aristos and bureaucrats could lay off to enable the merchants to produce more weapons and goods to secure South Harchongs position. If my suspicion about South Harchong taking Desnarii territory is correct, then the merchant/industrialists might make another leg of the South Harchong power structure.

The Border Kingdoms will be either a demilitarized zone or jointly occupied by Zionist forces and Allied forces. Both sides will be trying new things to gain advantage. Whatever passes for private enterprise in the area will powerful incentives to look for better ways to do things to adapt to the changing environment.

Delfarahk is a small kingdom that might recognize their only chance of remaining independent in a Howard devoid of the CoGA to check powerful imperial and aggressive neighbors. That recognition might lead to begging their Imperial Duchess and Princess cousin's gracious pardon for prior offences and Fugger begging to be included in the Empire of Charis.

Do you know something that I have overlooked about the border Kingdoms? I have the sense of that entire area being pretty isolated and provincial and probably conservative to an extreme which would go along with being extremely pious. Under your scenario they do get some exposure to outside influence, but still...

Don

Don,

I don't have any more information than you have about the BKs. Its just that if the war stops short of Charis taking Zion, the BK will be occupied by either Siddermark or the CoGA. Their existing leadership will either be gelded or completely removed. The St. Kylmyn(sp?) methods will be used to increase production on all the troop support products and services on the TL side. Siddermark production processes will be seen on that side. Because the BK will be occupied territory, the rulers won't be old guard aristos. Whatever aristos that survive will tow whatever line the occupiers decide need towing. That goes double for guild masters.

Its the nations with existing governments and untraumatized societies that will put up the most successful resistance. The EoC will have to finesse their aristos and guildmasters more than the nations I mentioned.