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Ebola Virus

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Re: Ebola Virus
Post by cthia   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 7:56 am

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KNick wrote:
now I have several questions.

How many were suffering from chronic immune system diseases such as HIV/AIDS, malaria, Tuberculosis?

How many were suffering from chronic malnutrition? Chronic vitamin deficiency?

How many had any of the dozens of parasitic worms, fungi or diseases?

Did they have access to uncontaminated water? Did they have access to health care that wasn't being provided by the people whom they most distrusted/feared?

How many were suffering from more than one of the above problems?

Since none of the dead were autopsied, those are all unanswered questions. Yet the answers are important when it comes to figuring out just how deadly Ebola would be world wide. A disease, any disease, that starts in an already sick population is going to be more deadly to that population than it would be to a healthy population.

I am not saying that Ebola is not a killer. I am not saying that it is not a world-wide threat. I am saying that panic and fear bred by ignorance is not the best response. The WHO has screamed pandemic to many times that have not turned out to be as bad as they claim.

Should people be wary? Definitely. Should both people and governments by prepared? Of course. But before resorting to panic measures, find out all the facts.

One item to keep in mind is that most of the health scares of the past century are diseases of poverty and poor health care aided by ignorance and superstition. Better education and standards of living would do more to quell such outbreaks than any other reaction.

Perhaps you are on to something important. Yet do not fail to consider the fact that the virus is believed to have been hidden in the Kitum cave in Africa and its first documented victim was a Frenchman, Charles Monet, who ended up in Africa for whatever reason. He was not a poor African villager. It seems to me that if the virus was health, or malnutrition dependent, it would have long been contracted by said malnourished Africans, and not originally contracted by a primarily healthy Frenchman. The Frenchman had been in the Kitum cave and had possibly been cut by a rock, it is believed.

It seems that if the virus is a symptom of such distressing living conditions, then it would have originated and taken hold "at" the heart of one of these locations, and not in a remote cave.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Ebola Virus
Post by The E   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 8:22 am

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cthia wrote:Perhaps you are on to something important. Yet do not fail to consider the fact that the virus is believed to have been hidden in the Kitum cave in Africa and its first documented victim was a Frenchman, Charles Monet, who ended up in Africa for whatever reason. He was not a poor African villager. It seems to me that if the virus was health, or malnutrition dependent, it would have long been contracted by said malnourished Africans, and not originally contracted by a primarily healthy Frenchman. The Frenchman had been in the Kitum cave and had possibly been cut by a rock, it is believed.


You are mixing facts here. The Kitum cave harbors a strand of the Marburg virus, which isn't Ebola. It is a hemorrhagic fever, yes, but it is far less virulent than Ebola, with under 400 known cases in the 57 years after it was first isolated (incidentally, it was first found in the german city of Marburg). Monet (a pseudonym, btw, his real name isn't known) wasn't the first person to contract the disease (he died in 1980); just the first known person to die of that specific strand of the virus.

The distinction between the two is rather important, as MVD isn't known to be transmissible via aerosol.
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Re: Ebola Virus
Post by Arol   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:02 am

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The E wrote:
cthia wrote:Perhaps you are on to something important. Yet do not fail to consider the fact that the virus is believed to have been hidden in the Kitum cave in Africa and its first documented victim was a Frenchman, Charles Monet, who ended up in Africa for whatever reason. He was not a poor African villager. It seems to me that if the virus was health, or malnutrition dependent, it would have long been contracted by said malnourished Africans, and not originally contracted by a primarily healthy Frenchman. The Frenchman had been in the Kitum cave and had possibly been cut by a rock, it is believed.


You are mixing facts here. The Kitum cave harbors a strand of the Marburg virus, which isn't Ebola. It is a hemorrhagic fever, yes, but it is far less virulent than Ebola, with under 400 known cases in the 57 years after it was first isolated (incidentally, it was first found in the german city of Marburg). Monet (a pseudonym, btw, his real name isn't known) wasn't the first person to contract the disease (he died in 1980); just the first known person to die of that specific strand of the virus.

The distinction between the two is rather important, as MVD isn't known to be transmissible via aerosol.


Another good example of why this is a damm good thread to keep oneself a`jour on info regarding the current Ebola outbreak.
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Re: Ebola Virus
Post by cthia   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:02 am

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The E wrote:
cthia wrote:
Perhaps you are on to something important. Yet do not fail to consider the fact that the virus is believed to have been hidden in the Kitum cave in Africa and its first documented victim was a Frenchman, Charles Monet, who ended up in Africa for whatever reason. He was not a poor African villager. It seems to me that if the virus was health, or malnutrition dependent, it would have long been contracted by said malnourished Africans, and not originally contracted by a primarily healthy Frenchman. The Frenchman had been in the Kitum cave and had possibly been cut by a rock, it is believed.


You are mixing facts here. The Kitum cave harbors a strand of the Marburg virus, which isn't Ebola. It is a hemorrhagic fever, yes, but it is far less virulent than Ebola, with under 400 known cases in the 57 years after it was first isolated (incidentally, it was first found in the german city of Marburg). Monet wasn't the first person to contract the disease (he died in 1980); just the first known person to die of that specific strand of the virus.


No, I am not mixing the three. Perhaps I should have stated that Monet was infected by Marburg, however, I have pleaded for many to read the book for themselves. Marburg, though not considered to be Ebola, is in the Ebola "filovirus" family and yes it is considered to be the mildest of the "filovirus" sisters. But in the filovirus family with Ebola. BSL-4!


HOT ZONE wrote:
Marburg is one of a family of viruses known as the filoviruses. Marburg was the first filovirus to be discovered. The word filovirus is Latin and means "thread virus". The filoviruses look alike, as if they are sisters, and they resemble no other virus on earth.

-snip-

Not long after Charles Monet died, it was established that the family of filoviruses comprised Marburg along with two types of virus called Ebola. The Ebolas were named Ebola Zaire and Ebola Sudan. Marburg was the mildest of the three filovirus sisters. The worst of them was Ebola Zaire.

The kill rate in humans infected with Ebola Zaire is nine out of ten. Ninety percent of the people who come down with Ebola Zaire die of it. Ebola Zaire is a slate wiper in humans. Marburg virus (the gentle sister) affects humans somewhat like nuclear radiation, damaging virtually all of the tissues in their bodies. It attacks with particular ferocity the internal organs, connective tissue, intestines, and skin. In Germany, all the survivors lost their hair-they went bald or partly bald. Their hair died at the roots and fell out in clumps, as if they had received radiation burns. Hemorrhage occurred from all orifices of the body. I have seen a photograph of one of the men who died of Marburg, taken in the hours before his death. He is lying in bed without any clothing on his upper body. His face is expressionless. His chest, arms, and face are speckled with blotches and bruises, and droplets of blood stand on his nipples.

During the survivors' recovery period, the skin peeled off their faces, hands, feet, and genitals. Some of the men suffered from blown up, semirotten testicles. One of the worst cases of this appeared in a morgue attendant who had handled Marburg-infected bodies. The virus also lingered in the fluid inside the eyeballs of some victims for many months.

No one knows why Marburg has a special affinity for the testicles and the eyes. One man infected his wife with Marburg through sexual intercourse.

Doctors noticed that the Marburg agent had a strange effect on the brain. "Most of the patients showed a sul en, slight aggressive, or negativistic behavior," according to the book. "Two patients (had) a feeling as if they were lying on crumbs." One patient became psychotic, apparently as a result of brain damage. The patient named Hans O.-V.

showed no signs of mental derangement, and his fever cooled, and he seemed to be stabilizing, but then suddenly, without warning, he had an acute fall in blood pressure-he was crashing-and he died. They performed an autopsy on him, and when they opened his skull, they found a massive, fatal hemorrhage at the center of the brain. He had bled out into his brain.

International health authorities were urgently concerned to find the exact source of the monkeys, in order to pin down where in nature the Marburg virus lived. It seemed pretty clear that the Marburg virus did not natural y circulate in monkeys, because it killed them so fast it could not successfully establish itself in them as a useful host.

Therefore, Marburg lived in some other kin of host-an insect? a rat? a spider? a reptile? Where, exactly, had the monkeys been trapped? That place would be the hiding place of the virus. Soon after the outbreak in Germany, a team of investigators under the auspices of the World Health Organization flew to Uganda. The team couldn't discover the exact source of the virus.

There the mystery lingered for many years. Then, in 1982, an English veterinarian came forward with new eyewitness information about the Marburg monkeys. I wil cal this man Mr. Jones (today, he prefers to remain anonymous). During the summer of 1967, when the virus erupted in Germany, Mr. Jones was working at a temporary job inspecting monkeys at the export facility in Entebbe from which the sick Marburg monkeys had been shipped, while regular veterinary inspector was on leave. This monkey house, which was run by a rich monkey trader ("a sort of lovable rogue," according to Mr. Jones) was exporting about thirteen thousand monkeys a year to Europe. This was a very large number of monkeys, and it generated big money. The infected shipment was loaded onto an overnight flight to London, and from there it was flown to Germany-where the virus broke out of the monkeys and "attempted" to establish itself in the human population.

After making a number of telephone cal s, I final y located Mr. Jones in a town in England, where today he is working as a veterinary consultant. He said to me: "Al that animals got, before they were shipped off, was a visual inspection."

"By whom?" I asked.

"By me," he said. "I inspected them to see that they appeared normal. On occasion, with some of these shipments, one or two animals were injured or had skin leisons." His method was to pick out the sick-looking ones, which were removed from the shipment and presumably kil ed before the remaining healthy-looking animals were loaded onto the plane. When, a few weeks later, the monkeys started the outbreak in Germany, Mr. Jones felt terrible. "I was appal ed, because I had signed the export certificate," he said to me. "I feel now that I have the deaths of these people on my hands. But that feeling suggests I could have done something about it. There was no way I could have known." He is right about that: the virus was then unknown to science, and as few as two or three not-visibly-sick animals could have started the outbreak.

One concludes that the man should not be blamed for anything.

The story becomes more disturbing. He went on: "The sick ones were being kil ed, or so I thought." But later he learned that they weren't being kil ed. The boss of the company was having the sick monkeys put in boxes and shipped out to a smal island in Lake Victoria, where they were released. With so many sick monkeys running around it, the island could have become a focus for monkey viruses. It could have been a hot island, an isle of plagues. "Then, if this guy was a bit short of monkeys, he went out to the island and caught a few, unknown to me." Mr. Jones thinks it is possible that the Marburg agent had established itself on the hot island, and was circulating among the monkeys there, an that some of the monkeys which ended up in Germany had actually come from that island. But when the WHO team came later to investigate, "I was told by my boss to say nothing unless asked." As it turned out, no one asked Mr. Jones any questions-he says he never met the WHO team. The fact that the team apparently never spoke with him, the monkey inspector, "was bad epidemiology but good politics," he remarked to me. If it had been revealed that the monkey trader was shipped off suspect monkeys collected on a suspect island, he could have been put out of business, and Uganda would have lost a source of valuable foreign cash.

Shortly after the Marburg outbreak, Mr. Jones recal ed a fact that began to seem important to him. Between 1962 and 1965 he had been stationed in eastern Uganda, on the slopes of Mount Elgon, inspecting cattle for disease. At some time during that period, local chiefs told him that the people who lived on the north side of the volcano, along the Greek River, were suffering from a disease that caused bleeding, death, and "a particular skin rash"-and that monkeys in the area were dying of a similar disease. Mr. Jones did not pursue the rumors, and was never able to confirm the nature of the disease. But it seems possible that in the years preceding the outbreak of Marburg virus in Germany, a hidden outbreak of the virus occurred on the slopes of Mount Elgon.

MR. JONES'S PERSONAL VISION of the Marburg outbreak reminds me of a flashlight pointed down a dark hole. It gives a narrow but startling view of the larger phenomenon of the origin and spread of tropical viruses. He told me that some of the Marburg monkeys were trapped in a group of islands in Lake Victoria known as the Sese Islands.

The Senses are a low-lying forested archipelago in the northwestern part of Lake Victoria, an easy boat ride from Entebbe. The isle of plagues may have been situated among the Senses or near them. Mr. Jones does not recal the name of the hot island. He says it is close to Entebbe. At any rate, Mr. Jones's then-boss, the Entebbe monkey trader, had arranged a deal with vil agers in the Sese Islands to buy monkeys from them. They regarded the monkeys as pests and were happy to get rid of them, especial y for money.

So the trader was obtaining wild monkeys from Sese Islands, and if the animals proved to be sick, he was releasing them on another island somewhere near Entebbe. And some monkeys from the isle of plagues seemed to be ending up in Europe.

In papyrus reeds and desolate flatlands on the western shore of Lake Victoria facing the Sese Islands, there is a fishing vil age cal ed Kasensero. You can see the Sese Islands from the vil age. Kasensero was one of the first places in the world where AIDS appeared. Epidemiologists have since discovered that the northwestern shore of Lake Victoria was one of the initial epicenters of AIDS. It is general y believed that AIDS

came original y from African primates, from monkeys and apes, and that it somehow jumped out of these animals into the human race. It is thought that the virus went through a series of very rapid mutations at the time of its jump from primates to humans, which enabled it to establish itself successfully in people. In the years since AIDS virus emerged, the vil age of Kasensero has been devastated. The virus has kil ed a large portion of the inhabitants. It is said that other vil ages along the shores of Lake Victoria have been essential y wiped off the map.

The vil agers of Kasensero are fishmen who were, and are, famous as smugglers. In their wooden boats and motorized canoes they ferried il egal goods back and forth across the lake, using the Sese Islands as hiding places. One can guess that if a monkey trader were moving monkeys around Lake Victoria, he might cal on the Kasensero smugglers or on their neighbors.

One general theory for the origin of AIDS goes that, during the late nineteen-sixties, a new and lucrative business grew up in Africa, the export of primates to industrialized countries for use in medical research. Uganda was one of the biggest sources of these animals. As the monkey trade was established throughout central Africa, the native workers in the system, the monkey trappers and handlers, were exposed to large numbers of wide monkeys, some of which were carrying unusual viruses.

These animals, in turn, were being jammed together in cages, exposed to one another, passing viruses back and forth. furthermore, different species of monkeys were mixed together. It was a perfect setup for an outbreak of a virus that could jump species. It was also a natural laboratory for rapid virus evolution, and possibly it led to the creation of HIV. Did HIV crash into the human race as a result of the monkey trade? Did AIDS come from an island in Lake Victoria? A hot island? Who knows. When you begin probing into the origins of AIDS and Marburg, the light fails and things go dark, but you sense hidden connections. Both viruses seem part of a pattern.

WHEN HE LEARNED what Marburg virus does to human being, Dr. David Silverstein persuaded the Kenyan health authorities to shut down Nairobi Hospital.


Perhaps not technically, but to me all three are the same. I wouldn't want to tangle with Ebola, or its little sister.

It was the first documented case, in Africa. It does explain in the book its German origin, hence the German name and the first German person, Klaus F. infected.

Edit:
Included more passage from "The Hot Zone."
Last edited by cthia on Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:47 am, edited 1 time in total.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Ebola Virus
Post by The E   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:23 am

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cthia wrote:No, I am not mixing the three. Perhaps I should have stated that Monet was infected by Marburg, however, I have pleaded for many to read the book for themselves. Marburg, though not considered to be Ebola, is in the Ebola "filovirus" family and yes it is considered to be the mildest of the "filovirus" sisters. But in the filovirus family with Ebola. BSL-4!


So? Ebola != Marburg, just as Tiger != Housecat. Same family, different genus, different epidemiology. It's a BSL 4 agent, yes. But it's not Ebola. It doesn't spread through aerosols, and it certainly doesn't originate from that one cave alone. Facts, cthia, not speculation.

Again, Hot Zone is a very good book. But it should not be your only source of information.
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Re: Ebola Virus
Post by cthia   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:44 am

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The E wrote:
cthia wrote:No, I am not mixing the three. Perhaps I should have stated that Monet was infected by Marburg, however, I have pleaded for many to read the book for themselves. Marburg, though not considered to be Ebola, is in the Ebola "filovirus" family and yes it is considered to be the mildest of the "filovirus" sisters. But in the filovirus family with Ebola. BSL-4!


So? Ebola != Marburg, just as Tiger != Housecat. Same family, different genus, different epidemiology. It's a BSL 4 agent, yes. But it's not Ebola. It doesn't spread through aerosols, and it certainly doesn't originate from that one cave alone. Facts, cthia, not speculation.

Again, Hot Zone is a very good book. But it should not be your only source of information.

:roll:
It is fact that I am giving. Marburg is in the same filovirus family, It is considered to be one of "the big three." What isn't factual about that???

Now you're just being silly. A housecat, like any of the big cats, won't kill you fucking dead!

ALL of the filoviruses will kill you ... truckindead!

If you don't see the difference ...

Hot Zone isn't my only reference. Also, health organizations are themselves recommending the book. I am not speculating anything. I am giving facts that are within the pages of the book.

The only person calling the book speculation, so far, is well ...you.

And I'm much too busy to argue silliness. I've invited all to read the book for themselves. Occupy someone else with your silliness.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Ebola Virus
Post by The E   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:16 am

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The fact of the matter is that this oubreak doesn't have anything to do with the 1980 Monet case, or Kitum cave.

When you said this:
Yet do not fail to consider the fact that the virus is believed to have been hidden in the Kitum cave in Africa and its first documented victim was a Frenchman, Charles Monet, who ended up in Africa for whatever reason. He was not a poor African villager. It seems to me that if the virus was health, or malnutrition dependent, it would have long been contracted by said malnourished Africans, and not originally contracted by a primarily healthy Frenchman. The Frenchman had been in the Kitum cave and had possibly been cut by a rock, it is believed.


you made absolutely no distinction between Ebola (a disease spreadable by aerosol with a ~90% death rate) and Marburg (a disease NOT spreadable by aerosol with a death rate significantly lower). You also put out misleading information about the history of Ebola and its origins. Accuracy matters. Correctness matters. Especially in situations like this, where misinformation can spread fast and wide and cause severe consequences.
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Re: Ebola Virus
Post by cthia   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 11:01 am

cthia
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The E wrote:
The fact of the matter is that this oubreak doesn't have anything to do with the 1980 Monet case, or Kitum cave.

When you said this:
Yet do not fail to consider the fact that the virus is believed to have been hidden in the Kitum cave in Africa and its first documented victim was a Frenchman, Charles Monet, who ended up in Africa for whatever reason. He was not a poor African villager. It seems to me that if the virus was health, or malnutrition dependent, it would have long been contracted by said malnourished Africans, and not originally contracted by a primarily healthy Frenchman. The Frenchman had been in the Kitum cave and had possibly been cut by a rock, it is believed.


you made absolutely no distinction between Ebola (a disease spreadable by aerosol with a ~90% death rate) and Marburg (a disease NOT spreadable by aerosol with a death rate significantly lower). You also put out misleading information about the history of Ebola and its origins. Accuracy matters. Correctness matters. Especially in situations like this, where misinformation can spread fast and wide and cause severe consequences.

Your argument against me is misplaced and transparent.
1. I made no specific reference to Ebola. I said "virus," which happens to be CORRECT. "Filovirus."
2. Your argument further makes no sense because it can be argued that the current outbreak has nothing to do with any other Ebola outbreak.
3. It is NOT currently known, the source of the filoviruses. As I understood it, a network of caves in Africa were suspect.
4. You alone are making the statement that the current outbreak in Africa is totally unrelated to pass outbreaks in Africa. Do you know something the CDC doesn't?

It is believed that a source exists and that that source is likely in Africa. FROM THE HOT ZONE, that no one in authority has disputed!

The CDC had not been correctly making a distinction between Ebola types either. Albeit,nit was considered Ebola and not Marburg. One day it was a new strain. Then it was Ebola Zaire, then it was a new, possibly mutated strain. NOT WANTING TO COMMIT, I was simply referring to it as "filovirus." We discussed it earlier in the thread about misinformation regarding the specific type by the media.

Exactly why do you think Africa is deemed THE HOT ZONE, is that distinction lost on you?

Everyone. Again. Read the "Hot Zone" for yourself.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Ebola Virus
Post by namelessfly   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 11:40 am

namelessfly

Using patterns of international trade and the dwindling number of companies/countries manufacturing large jet airliners (only three if you include Russia which can't compete), jet bombers, top rate fighters, nuclear power plants, coal fired power plant, advanced oil well drilling equipment not to mention computer chips suggests that a minimum population needed to maintain technology is about one billion.



Emo Otaku wrote:
When you factor in deaths from secondary causes i.e. other diseases caused by millions of unburied dead, famine caused by the breakdown in food distribution, and the rioting caused by the collapse of civilisation.

then 120 million is not an unimaginable number.

But its not extinction 120 million is about the human population in 0 AD

Hoping that the new society's that form can keep scientific knowledge intact. then its unlikely that mankind would completely lose our technological civilisation. We may backside a little but much faster than anyone believes we'll be back where we started, and with the example of the past we'll hopefully spread beyond this fragile egg and out into the universe.
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Re: Ebola Virus
Post by namelessfly   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 11:51 am

namelessfly

I suspect that you are correct to speculate that the known cases and deaths have been people with already compromised immune systems. It is quite possible that Ebola will be less lethal to non-African peoples whomare in better health. Greater wealth also enables a better healthcare response to con taint the spread. Can you imagine a hospital so poor or so ignorant thatnthey reuse unsterilized needles.

One thought suggested by the possible differential fatality rate that scares me is that this outbreak of Ebola might be the result of biological warfare being waged by EcoNazis and ZPGNazis who think that the world is overpopulated. Since Africa is the only continent that still has a high TFR, Africans would be the "logical" target.

KNick wrote:now I have several questions.

How many were suffering from chronic immune system diseases such as HIV/AIDS, malaria, Tuberculosis?

How many were suffering from chronic malnutrition? Chronic vitamin deficiency?

How many had any of the dozens of parasitic worms, fungi or diseases?

Did they have access to uncontaminated water? Did they have access to health care that wasn't being provided by the people whom they most distrusted/feared?

How many were suffering from more than one of the above problems?

Since none of the dead were autopsied, those are all unanswered questions. Yet the answers are important when it comes to figuring out just how deadly Ebola would be world wide. A disease, any disease, that starts in an already sick population is going to be more deadly to that population than it would be to a healthy population.

I am not saying that Ebola is not a killer. I am not saying that it is not a world-wide threat. I am saying that panic and fear bred by ignorance is not the best response. The WHO has screamed pandemic to many times that have not turned out to be as bad as they claim.

Should people be wary? Definitely. Should both people and governments by prepared? Of course. But before resorting to panic measures, find out all the facts.

One item to keep in mind is that most of the health scares of the past century are diseases of poverty and poor health care aided by ignorance and superstition. Better education and standards of living would do more to quell such outbreaks than any other reaction.
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