Young and Basilisk station

Kizarvexis wrote:

n7axw wrote:Sirrus' object in leaving the system wasn't to bring in the taskforce. It was to tell the taskforce the the op had crapped out and to warn them not to show up. When Sirrus was destroyed, the task force did show up and was welcomed by home fleet who had responded to Honor's "Case Zulu."

Don

Sirrus was going to stop the invasion because Honor's poking around crapped out the operation. With Cpt Young sitting fat and happy in orbit, the operation would have almost certainly went off with out a hitch. And you know if Cpt Young had stayed, he would have had Honor and Fearless running around the system and she would not have been able to crap out the Havenite's plan.

Assuming he hadn't found some pretext to have her relieved of command. He certainly was petty enough to try that.

n7axw wrote:

Garth 2 wrote:If Young had been on station, I can see two variations:

First option (and the more nasty version) the 'Sirus' would have suddenly stopped being a freighter and blown 'Warlock' to pieces for two reason -

1 - To stop Warlock dropping her marines and KEW strikes on the 'upraising' thereby ensuring that locals where slaughtered.
2 - To prevent Warlock (or any other vessel)from getting the word out.

The ship then slips away, after KEW striking the NPA bases, once the PRH task force arrives.

Second option, is ground forces are taken complete by surprise and 'Sirus' goes and makes contact with the task force which then turns up and puts down the 'upraising', also forcing Warlock to yield the system (anyone think Young would hold the line against task force on his own). In the mean time Warlock (i.e. Young) either refuses to put troops on the ground (its a dirt side problem, not something for the Navy to deal with) or waits so long to get involved that the Marines are fighting it out in the city.

Remember that PRH just need a pretext to take the system, by showing that the SKM couldn't police/maintain public safety.

Really, all they should have done was send in a task force to secure control of the system (possible using the 'locals asked for protection' argument i.e. OFS tactics) and then forced the SKM/RMN to back down and pay reparations as part of the 'peace treaty', as we know that Manticore at this time was no way near ready to fight a war.
or just hammered Manticore directly between OBS & HotQ

Sirrus' object in leaving the system wasn't to bring in the taskforce. It was to tell the taskforce the the op had crapped out and to warn them not to show up. When Sirrus was destroyed, the task force did show up and was welcomed by home fleet who had responded to Honor's "Case Zulu."

Don

Sirius was there for several reasons. First she was to be the civilian ship "fleeing in panic" which was the excuse for why the Peep battlesquadrons showed up to protect their enclave and then generally restore order. Then, she (or the dispatch boat) could alert them if the timing was unavoidably altered or warn them off if the op went awry.

If Honor had been caught flat-footed, especially if she was away from the planet, and the natives broke into the compounds I have little doubt that Sirius would have stuck with plan A and "fled in panic", bringing back the 3 Peep battle squadrons to restore order; assuming they were at the rendezvous already.

But OBS isn't clear on their timing. We do know they arrived 6 days later, and we know Sirius wanted to "tell the task force not to come"; but it's unclear if they'd have already been there waiting or if Sirius would hang around until they arrived then tell them to go home. Clearly the op wasn't entirely dependent on a ship "fleeing" or else the Battle Squadrons never would have moved on to Basilisk - they'd have waited until time expired and gone home (or maybe sent a scout or courier ahead to find out what the issue was)

Quote Jonathan_S

But OBS isn't clear on their timing. We do know they arrived 6 days later, and we know Sirius wanted to "tell the task force not to come"; but it's unclear if they'd have already been there waiting or if Sirius would hang around until they arrived then tell them to go home. Clearly the op wasn't entirely dependent on a ship "fleeing" or else the Battle Squadrons never would have moved on to Basilisk - they'd have waited until time expired and gone home (or maybe sent a scout or courier ahead to find out what the issue was)

When the PRH Trojan Intelligence Agent visited Medusa he clearly stated that the 'other assets could be kept on station' - now the only other assets that were required and not in SKM space was the battle squadrons.

If Young had retained command, the following would have (more or less) occurred:

1 - The NPA would have been dealing with RMN duties of customs, medical checks, anti-smuggling operations (meaning no integration of RMN and NPA resources)
2 - This means that though they would have known Meohak (spelling) usage was going up but they wouldn't have known it was off-world made (meaning that they wouldn't have started to look for the first lab)
3 - The holes in the NPA radar net wouldn't have been plugged (meaning that they wouldn't have spotted the aircar moving in the prohibited area, meaning they wouldn't have sent out an investigation team)
4 - Though the NPA would have received a warning from the local side, without any other intel it would have been meaningless
5 - The Shaman launches his attack
6 - The first compounds hit get out a warning to 'Sirsus' which 'panics' and heads for the hyper limit
7 - Sirsus gets to the task force which then responds
8 - The Shamans forces are wiped out by a combination or NPA, RMMC, RMN and 'local security' forces but the PRH task forces claims that Manticore can't provide for public safety and in the course of their honest and open investigation 'happen' to find the drug lab, staffed by Manticorian criminals (again proving that the SKM can't be trusted)
9 - A chunk of the SKM public and liberal/conservative parties protest about the SKMs handling of Medusa 'proving' that the SKM should stay at home
10 - The RMN loss of prestige hampers its growth
11 - The PRH move in and take over the SKM

Garth 2 wrote:Quote Jonathan_S

But OBS isn't clear on their timing. We do know they arrived 6 days later, and we know Sirius wanted to "tell the task force not to come"; but it's unclear if they'd have already been there waiting or if Sirius would hang around until they arrived then tell them to go home. Clearly the op wasn't entirely dependent on a ship "fleeing" or else the Battle Squadrons never would have moved on to Basilisk - they'd have waited until time expired and gone home (or maybe sent a scout or courier ahead to find out what the issue was)

When the PRH Trojan Intelligence Agent visited Medusa he clearly stated that the 'other assets could be kept on station' - now the only other assets that were required and not in SKM space was the battle squadrons.

If Young had retained command, the following would have (more or less) occurred:

1 - The NPA would have been dealing with RMN duties of customs, medical checks, anti-smuggling operations (meaning no integration of RMN and NPA resources)
2 - This means that though they would have known Meohak (spelling) usage was going up but they wouldn't have known it was off-world made (meaning that they wouldn't have started to look for the first lab)
3 - The holes in the NPA radar net wouldn't have been plugged (meaning that they wouldn't have spotted the aircar moving in the prohibited area, meaning they wouldn't have sent out an investigation team)
4 - Though the NPA would have received a warning from the local side, without any other intel it would have been meaningless
5 - The Shaman launches his attack
6 - The first compounds hit get out a warning to 'Sirsus' which 'panics' and heads for the hyper limit
7 - Sirsus gets to the task force which then responds
8 - The Shamans forces are wiped out by a combination or NPA, RMMC, RMN and 'local security' forces but the PRH task forces claims that Manticore can't provide for public safety and in the course of their honest and open investigation 'happen' to find the drug lab, staffed by Manticorian criminals (again proving that the SKM can't be trusted)
9 - A chunk of the SKM public and liberal/conservative parties protest about the SKMs handling of Medusa 'proving' that the SKM should stay at home
10 - The RMN loss of prestige hampers its growth
11 - The PRH move in and take over the SKM

I agree that with Young still there the native uprising most likely would have stuck more closely to the original schedule. And on that schedule the Peep battle squadrons would obviously have been ready to respond.

I had just been wondering about a hypothetical where the uprising still managed to launch prematurely and how early the battle squadrons would have been available 'on call' to accommodate that possibility.

I think Elizabeth Winton and the Admiralty would have been a bit more determined than Garth seems to think. Eventually Home Fleet would have showed up and Haven's possession of Medusa would have been more temporary than they would have been expecting.

What might have happened was that the war would have kicked off prematurely. Its hard to say how that would have worked out. Manticore wasn't ready for it quite yet, but then, neither was Haven.

Don

n7axw wrote:I think Elizabeth Winton and the Admiralty would have been a bit more determined than Garth seems to think. Eventually Home Fleet would have showed up and Haven's possession of Medusa would have been more temporary than they would have been expecting.

There are 3 squadrons in Medusa. If they cover the WH while they lay mines (an obvious tactic), the only way there is via hyperspace. This takes a while. The Peeps have a LOT of ships that are not otherwise occupied. So, sure home fleet can push 3 BatRons out, the only question is how willing is the RMN to trade Manticore for Medusa? Because that is seriously a possible outcome once you move Home Fleet.

kzt wrote:

n7axw wrote:I think Elizabeth Winton and the Admiralty would have been a bit more determined than Garth seems to think. Eventually Home Fleet would have showed up and Haven's possession of Medusa would have been more temporary than they would have been expecting.

There are 3 squadrons in Medusa. If they cover the WH while they lay mines (an obvious tactic), the only way there is via hyperspace. This takes a while. The Peeps have a LOT of ships that are not otherwise occupied. So, sure home fleet can push 3 BatRons out, the only question is how willing is the RMN to trade Manticore for Medusa? Because that is seriously a possible outcome once you move Home Fleet.

Assuming they take it safer and take the Eta bands you're looking at roughly 30 days transit for the Home Fleet squadrons. (Of course if they win they can return nearly instantly. But if they have to retreat...

That's a narrow window for the Peeps to try to take advantage of, but still I can see being nervous about the vulnerability.


Still in retrospect I think the odds for the Peeps just got worse while they waited. Manticore got closer to deploying their new tech, build up defensive depth, got the Graysons moving towards being major partners. I'm not aware of any equivalent improvements in posture or preparedness that the Peeps pulled off. They might actually have won if they'd kicked it off early (not least because that might preempt Pierre's coupe and the disastrous effects that had on the Navy and it's officer corp)


Actually, if you want a real alternate history, in some ways the worst thing Haven could do is end up controlling a 2nd terminus and then launching a double-barreled wormhole assault. That could easily fail (pre-war simulations not withstanding) and doing so might well bring down the government in chaos; after throwing away a lot of tonnage and sailors.

Jonathan_S wrote:Actually, if you want a real alternate history, in some ways the worst thing Haven could do is end up controlling a 2nd terminus and then launching a double-barreled wormhole assault. That could easily fail (pre-war simulations not withstanding) and doing so might well bring down the government in chaos; after throwing away a lot of tonnage and sailors.

No, the peeps/puppets just have a couple of ships transiting through the junction every day and look for signs of home fleet. If it suddenly isn't there one day then they go into hyper, but don't go very far... And they they come back with a bunch of friends.

This assumes that the RMN doesn't just feed all of home fleet into the wood chipper that is the WH to Medusa, because 3 BatRons and a freighter full of mines can probably destroy most of Home Fleet that way.

I'm still trying to figure out how anyone could conceivably think that the Medusans, a Bronze Age/early Iron Age people if I remember right' could have ever posed a threat to orbiting starships. The PRH excuse to sweep in and take over the system always came across as being as flimsy as wet toilet paper. There is literally no way the Medusans could ever threaten anything in orbit. So the Peep ship that 'fled in a panic' would have made the ship captain and crew more of a laughing stock rather than fleeing in a true panic. No one should have ever taken it seriously, and any oncoming Peep force would likely have been curb stomped into the next millennium if the Peeps had tried to use the excuse of the Medusans as a threat as a reason/excuse for them to take over the system.

Zakharra wrote:I'm still trying to figure out how anyone could conceivably think that the Medusans, a Bronze Age/early Iron Age people if I remember right' could have ever posed a threat to orbiting starships.

It wasn't a threat to starships that supposedly evoked panic, it would be an inability to assist as Medusans killed peaceful traders on the surface.

The PRH never let the truth or facts get in the way of a good story; they convicted Honor in absentia of destroying and "innocent merchat ship" despite damage from Sirius' missles that totaled Fearless.