namelessfly wrote:
That somewhat flawed calculation is based on the presumption that 100% of the population becomes infected. Using the common flu as an example, we never suffer a 100% infection rate. When the flu is particularly virulent, we also observe people changing their behavior to reduce their risk of infection and governments impose quarantines to contain outbreaks.
Ebola has the potential to achieve a much higher infection rate because it is so horrific. The symptoms and known fatality rate will inevitably induce panic in infected people plus the virus seriously impairs brain function. Right now the three African countries affected by Ebola are employing their military to impose a quarantine and CLOSE THEIR BORDERS to contain the disease. This will work as long as the disease resides in isolated, rural communities. However; if Ebola infects a significant fraction of the population in a major urban area, there is a risk of
societal collapse becomes extreme. At that point, the changes in people's behavior (aka panic and chaos) will aid the spread of the disease. Factor in the known potential for intraspecies transmission (rats) and you could see infection rates that are sky high. As social order disintegrates, the industrial infrastructure that sustains people will be compromised. Famine will result and other diseases would become rampant. It would not be an extinction level event, but it will threaten civilization.
Unfortunately, you are correct so let's all hope it fizzles away. Let's also hope it does not mutate into airborne. Controlling an airborne Hot agent for which there is no vaccine is just about impossible. E.Zaire makes Variola Major, aka smallpox, look like the common cold with one exception; Smallpox is airborne spread. OTOH, there is a vaccine for smallpox. People my age got it once upon a time. Also, all of us are descendants of people who survived Smallpox, which may mean our immune systems have the genetics to cope with it. hopefully.
. This is not so for Ebola. We're most all of us immune systems 'virgins' at dealing with Ebola. Which is not good.
However this airborne/ fluid borne distinction matters a lot. Part of the problem in Africa is cultural insistence on doing things like washing and kissing the dead. Ummm this is an easy way for it to spread. That method would not apply most places. Most of us do
not kiss people dead of horrific contagious diseases.
Has quarantine ever worked? Anywhere? In theory it should but humans are not theories. The reality is messy and chaotic and sneaky.
I repeat, can you shelter at home? For how long? Crap happens, most of it only minor, but SHTF events go down fast and there would be zero time to correct shortages in your cupboards, etc. Does having a stash of whatever size guarantee you survive? Of course not, but it sure beats being utterly unprepared. End of my broken record on that aspect. I promise. I had to say it and pound on it a bit, but what you do with it is your decision, folks.
