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All Quiet on the Howard Front

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Re: All Quiet on the Howard Front
Post by lyonheart   » Wed Jul 30, 2014 3:02 am

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Hi Don, Tootall;

I probably should have been more precise; the semi or quasi-modern army the Go4 bought was only a small part of what passes for the IDA [at least 1% of the population], whose main job is internal security, and from the CoGA subsidies Desnar can't afford to create a replacement for the AoJ, nor can the Go4, especially given how little return they got on their investment.

I can see Duchairn refusing to spend more money they don't have, Magwair arguing they don't have the time to train or equip it, or both being relieved when Howard is cut off so they don't have to waste the money.

With a population of 148 million Desnar definitely has a large base of military age males, besides the standing army, but the institutional mind set against effective infantry prevents the Imperial Desnari Empire and Army from creating what they truly need, even if they knew that's what they needed in the first place, which they don't.

"They're so deep in the hole, they can barely see daylight at midday." -Dohlaran staff officer Lattymyr

An effective missile infantry, even if drawn from the small middle class, is inimical to the whole worldview and psychology of the Desnari empire and aristocracy, so sabotaging any permanent infantry force would be the object of all the arrogant irrational idiots that have been ruining the country for the last couple centuries or so, just as the French aristocracy ruined the French archers created after Agincourt, albeit the Desnari are still more competent than Harchong's aristocracy.

Furthermore, given the Desnari's pitiful rifle production, which are already obsolete, it would be another year before any reasonable number of rifle armed infantry could be assembled, yet against what the allies will have by then will make any such attacks by the then IDA near suicide.

That irrelevancy is one reason I don't see any diplomatic efforts by the alliance to the Howard continental powers; with the exception of South Harchong, none of them is worth bothering with.

Although, if they were smart as they think they are, they should initiate any rapprochement with the allies soon after their isolation, but I see no sign of such intelligence.

South Harchong is unique among them for a much more forward attitude or a more merchant type mindset, that could see the advantages of a relationship with the EoC, including increased if not de facto independence.

Having a friend there could be very beneficial to the EoC as well. ;)

L


[quote="n7axw"][quote="tootall"]lyonheart wrote



[b]OTOH, neither the church nor Desnar can afford another Desnari army, and the internal reaction to losing it so incompetently may have all sorts of interesting repercussions.[/b]

Don't disagree with you often, Sir Lyon, however, I really believe that Desnar will raise another army- perhaps as big as the first one- less infantry- less well armed, but an army- second and third sons- still lots of horses there. And maybe commanded by AoG officers-(no idea how they physically get there). I say these things because it's a religious war- and Desnar still has lots and lots of young men of military age. A single(ok- very large) defeat won't stop religious ire- it may enrage the populace to greater efforts.

(Or not---if you have the right of it.)[/quote]

I agree that Desnair will raise another army, but it will not be for the Jihad since there will be no way for them to get it into the theater where the action will be. It will be used to keep a lid on social unrest at home.

Don[/quote]
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Re: All Quiet on the Howard Front
Post by lyonheart   » Wed Jul 30, 2014 3:22 am

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Hi Chickladoria,

Given the enmity between South Harchong and Desnar, as evidenced by the Desnari fortifications on the map, it's quite doubtful the South Harchong would be all that willing to share whatever advanced weapons they produce without guarantees of it all being returned or accounted for.

The Go4 might insist on it, but such coercion will not make SH more supportive of the temple, especially when other conflicts arise.

Just as the 'Monroe doctrine' nominally kept Europe from recolonizing the young Latin American republics, the RN played a large role in assuring that didn't happen, so the ICN will prevent the HE etc from re-establishing its will in the south.

At the same time, all the now obsolete muzzle loading rifles the RSA will have by then and still replacing, will be very valuable smuggling items in Desnar etc, for all the middle class and the serfs emboldened by all what's happened and happening in Haven.

L


chickladoria wrote:I don't see any reason why the Ferguson rifle plans developed by COGA could not be sent to South Harchong via Desnair. The textural evidence is that South Harchong is more efficient that North Harchong, so why not manufacture rifles and field guns there and move them across land to Desnair.

I realize that the movement would not be efficient, but would allow a field army (mixed artillery , infantry, and calvary) to defend the eastern entrance to Desnair. At least a force that would have to masked and tie down ICA/RSA elements.

It seems such a move could allow Desnair to avoid sending funds to the Temple Lands, and might lead to avoiding a civil war in Desnair - assuming the nobility could get their act together.
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Re: All Quiet on the Howard Front
Post by lyonheart   » Wed Jul 30, 2014 3:59 am

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Hi PeterZ,

"Very interesting." ;)

While I think the South Harchong ought to be able to take the Desnari gold mines, I don't think that it will happen all that soon because the internal struggle with North Harchong will be the initial and primary concern.

But it could happen before the 20 year hiatus, before the next story arc.

L


PeterZ wrote:Why would South Harchong arm Desnair for purely defensively action against the EoC? Better to keep those weapons for themselves. The South Harchong army would be a much tougher nut to crack than the IDA. Until the ICN controls the Salthar Canal, supplying an ICA invasion into South Harchong would require a MUCH longer supply route. Once the Salthar Canal is controlled by the EoC, South Harchong would be stupid NOT to negotiate a cease fire. They would be seriously tempted to allow the EoC to distract the G4 while they take possession of the Desnari gold mines. Negotiate a ceasefire, take control of Desnari wealth and consolidate that control while the CoGA is in disarray.

chickladoria wrote:I don't see any reason why the Ferguson rifle plans developed by COGA could not be sent to South Harchong via Desnair. The textural evidence is that South Harchong is more efficient that North Harchong, so why not manufacture rifles and field guns there and move them across land to Desnair.

I realize that the movement would not be efficient, but would allow a field army (mixed artillery , infantry, and calvary) to defend the eastern entrance to Desnair. At least a force that would have to masked and tie down ICA/RSA elements.

It seems such a move could allow Desnair to avoid sending funds to the Temple Lands, and might lead to avoiding a civil war in Desnair - assuming the nobility could get their act together.
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Re: All Quiet on the Howard Front
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Jul 30, 2014 9:17 am

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Very Likely true, Lyonheart.

I could see SH pulling back immediately after Silkiah fell and the Salthar Canal allows Charis to cut down their supply routes. When the ICN can supply their squadrons in the Gulf of Dohlar from Silkiah and the Salthar Canal, Howard is done. More than half their trading partners will be unavailable and the cost of materials will soar as their coastal cargo ships become prey to Charisian privateers. I suspect the South Harchong mechants see this clearly. Once the Charisian boom comes down in the Gulf of Dohlar, SH will look for excuses not to fight and bide their time.

I wonder what the Inquisitors will do? Would they be open to arguments suggesting that Desnari resources would be better used under the control of South Harchong? Would bribing a select core and assassinating the more intransigent persuade the SH Inquisition to consolidate their hold accross all of Howard? Would the Chihirites guiding the SH manufactories act to topple the Inquisition when Duchairn takes out Clyntahn? Are there any agents from Nynian waiting to destabilize SH?

Lots of things are possible and some of it might well kick off in this story arc, not the next.

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

"Very interesting." ;)

While I think the South Harchong ought to be able to take the Desnari gold mines, I don't think that it will happen all that soon because the internal struggle with North Harchong will be the initial and primary concern.

But it could happen before the 20 year hiatus, before the next story arc.

L
PeterZ wrote:Why would South Harchong arm Desnair for purely defensively action against the EoC? Better to keep those weapons for themselves. The South Harchong army would be a much tougher nut to crack than the IDA. Until the ICN controls the Salthar Canal, supplying an ICA invasion into South Harchong would require a MUCH longer supply route. Once the Salthar Canal is controlled by the EoC, South Harchong would be stupid NOT to negotiate a cease fire. They would be seriously tempted to allow the EoC to distract the G4 while they take possession of the Desnari gold mines. Negotiate a ceasefire, take control of Desnari wealth and consolidate that control while the CoGA is in disarray.
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Re: All Quiet on the Howard Front
Post by n7axw   » Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:00 am

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[quote="lyonheart"]Hi PeterZ,

"Very interesting." ;)

While I think the South Harchong ought to be able to take the Desnari gold mines, I don't think that it will happen all that soon because the internal struggle with North Harchong will be the initial and primary concern.

But it could happen before the 20 year hiatus, before the next story arc.

L


[quote=]

I'm not sure why you think that South Harchong will be embroiled in a struggle with North Harchong. The geography precudes any real attempt on the Northerners part to bring South Harchong to heel. Between the two lies all that water controlled by the ICN. S. Harchong can tell the northerners to kiss off...

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: All Quiet on the Howard Front
Post by Weird Harold   » Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:06 am

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n7axw wrote:I'm not sure why you think that South Harchong will be embroiled in a struggle with North Harchong. The geography precludes any real attempt on the Northerners part to bring South Harchong to heel. Between the two lies all that water controlled by the ICN. S. Harchong can tell the northerners to kiss off...


The Harchong Empire (North Harchong) doesn't strike me as the type of regime that will leave things at "Kiss Off" just because of a minor detail like a thousand miles of water controlled by a superior Navy. I can see them lining up their peasant army to issue water wings and (maybe) a compass with orders to go bring South Harchong to heel. :lol:
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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Re: All Quiet on the Howard Front
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:36 pm

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Hi Weird Harold,

Yup, especially if the South Harchong is the most profitable part of the empire, particularly when it comes to taxes.

While I expect the ICN CO to have instructions to prevent the north Harchong invading the south, I suspect he also has a recommendation that lets the north be quite overt before shutting down their sea sully line; compelling the South Harchong to be more obvious in their support of the EoC and its protectors the ICN, NTM more aware of their potential vulnerability; while the cut off northern Harchong army becomes a hefty ransom and bargaining chip in the negotiations regarding SH's change to a more independent state.

Who knows, it might even be a South Harchong suggestion. 8-) :lol:

In the Asian custom, independent states often sent a few gifts to China's emperor to keep the ports open to their trade etc, while the Chinese court referred to them as a subject province when they never had been; like Siam or Japan who took increasing umbrage to such references as China continued to weaken in the mid-19th century, until such references were publicly downplayed.

So I could see a possibly long transition period where South Harchong pretended to listen to North Harchong orders and or commands, but changed them due to 'unique local circumstances' according to what it felt was needed or right, while sending annual gifts, and North Harchong acquiesces since it couldn't do anything else.

L


Weird Harold wrote:
n7axw wrote:I'm not sure why you think that South Harchong will be embroiled in a struggle with North Harchong. The geography precludes any real attempt on the Northerners part to bring South Harchong to heel. Between the two lies all that water controlled by the ICN. S. Harchong can tell the northerners to kiss off...


The Harchong Empire (North Harchong) doesn't strike me as the type of regime that will leave things at "Kiss Off" just because of a minor detail like a thousand miles of water controlled by a superior Navy. I can see them lining up their peasant army to issue water wings and (maybe) a compass with orders to go bring South Harchong to heel. :lol:
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