Should Safeholdians say NO to Gbaba war?

Let's say that Merlin/Nimue wins the war against the church and manages to expose the falsehoods of the Writ and the lies of the "archangels" to the people of the planet.

So far, every one that Merlin has revealed the truth to has joined up with him to complete his quest and liberate Safehold from the tyranny of Langhorne and prepare to battle the Gbaba.

Yet, the Federation lost the war, and their hundreds and thousands of planets (whatever the count may be) across light centuries of space. They lost despite the best efforts of R&D people, and those AIs who went into hyperfast mode to come up with new techniques. The rest of humanity, so far as we have textev, is gone forever.

If Safehold were to rejoin the war effort, they would start at the same level of technology that lost the war for the Federation. Even less, counting the fact that Owl only has a portion of the total human knowledge library in his files.

Certainly there will be many that will want to thank Merlin for the knowledge, take what advances they can, yet decide to continue hiding in space per the plan and not generate any electromagnetic radiation that would attract the Gbaba scouts to destroy the one and only place humans have left in the universe.

Should they exchange the thousand year old tyranny of Administrator Langhorne and his gamble to save humanity by hiding, for the thousand year old tyranny of Lt Commander Alban and her gamble that Safehold can quickly come up with the war-winning technology in sufficient numbers to save their one planet?

First of all, Merlin's "plan" is to advance human technology until it surpasses the tech level of the Terran Federation before the "rematch" occurs.

Second, Merlin isn't planning to create a new tyranny to "lead mankind back to the stars to battle the Gbaba".

Third, his plan to stop the Church's restrictions on technological advances and to encourage humans to think in ways that would lead to new technology that surpasses the Terran Federation.

IMO once the Church is unable to stop technological development, technological development will occur leading to the point where Safehold humans can reach the stars once again.

From what David Weber has said, Safehold is far enough from Gbaba controlled/explored space that humans will be able to safely return to the stars and settle new world as long as they don't attempt to get close to old Federation territory.

Now David Weber has said that Shan-wei and Pei feared that when Langehorne's plan failed that humans would return to the stars and unknowingly enter Gbaba explored space thus attracting the attention of the Gbaba.

Merlin's plans thus are two-fold. First, is to restart technological advancement (which means breaking the power of the Church). Second, to prevent mankind from making contact with the Gbaba until mankind is ready for the re-match *that* will happen if mankind returns to the stars.

It is not a matter of "Safeholdians saying NO to a war against the Gbaba". The war would come if mankind returns to the stars sooner or later.

For that matter, we have no idea if the Gbaba are expanding their explored space. But if they are, then a low-tech Safehold might be found and destroyed thousands of years from "now".

Hank Plantagenet wrote:Let's say that Merlin/Nimue wins the war against the church and manages to expose the falsehoods of the Writ and the lies of the "archangels" to the people of the planet.

So far, every one that Merlin has revealed the truth to has joined up with him to complete his quest and liberate Safehold from the tyranny of Langhorne and prepare to battle the Gbaba.

Yet, the Federation lost the war, and their hundreds and thousands of planets (whatever the count may be) across light centuries of space. They lost despite the best efforts of R&D people, and those AIs who went into hyperfast mode to come up with new techniques. The rest of humanity, so far as we have textev, is gone forever.

If Safehold were to rejoin the war effort, they would start at the same level of technology that lost the war for the Federation. Even less, counting the fact that Owl only has a portion of the total human knowledge library in his files.

Certainly there will be many that will want to thank Merlin for the knowledge, take what advances they can, yet decide to continue hiding in space per the plan and not generate any electromagnetic radiation that would attract the Gbaba scouts to destroy the one and only place humans have left in the universe.

Should they exchange the thousand year old tyranny of Administrator Langhorne and his gamble to save humanity by hiding, for the thousand year old tyranny of Lt Commander Alban and her gamble that Safehold can quickly come up with the war-winning technology in sufficient numbers to save their one planet?

Hank Plantagenet wrote:Let's say that Merlin/Nimue wins the war against the church and manages to expose the falsehoods of the Writ and the lies of the "archangels" to the people of the planet.

So far, every one that Merlin has revealed the truth to has joined up with him to complete his quest and liberate Safehold from the tyranny of Langhorne and prepare to battle the Gbaba.

Yet, the Federation lost the war, and their hundreds and thousands of planets (whatever the count may be) across light centuries of space. They lost despite the best efforts of R&D people, and those AIs who went into hyperfast mode to come up with new techniques. The rest of humanity, so far as we have textev, is gone forever.

If Safehold were to rejoin the war effort, they would start at the same level of technology that lost the war for the Federation. Even less, counting the fact that Owl only has a portion of the total human knowledge library in his files.

Certainly there will be many that will want to thank Merlin for the knowledge, take what advances they can, yet decide to continue hiding in space per the plan and not generate any electromagnetic radiation that would attract the Gbaba scouts to destroy the one and only place humans have left in the universe.

Should they exchange the thousand year old tyranny of Administrator Langhorne and his gamble to save humanity by hiding, for the thousand year old tyranny of Lt Commander Alban and her gamble that Safehold can quickly come up with the war-winning technology in sufficient numbers to save their one planet?

I think that your assumption about Terran Federation tech is mistaken. IIRC, Terran tech actually managed to catch and perhaps even surpass the Gbaba, but didn't have enough time to employ the tech in sufficient quantity before being overwhelmed. Then we can assume that once Safehold is able to absorb TF tech that they will be able to develop it further which should give them a tech superiority since we know from textev that Gbaba tech is static and has been for several thousand years.

A more cogent question, I think, is how large an industrial base Safehold will have to have to produce the needed ships and weapons they must have to go hunting for the Gbaba. Safehold will not be up to the task alone. She will have to establish her own daughter worlds until she is at least as large if not larger than the TF. Then she will need to send off at least one if not more expeditions in the opposite direction as the Gbaba far enough away to insure that they are beyond the Gbabba's reach...all of this before a confrontation with the Gbaba is sought out.

Merlin's assumption is that a confrontation with the Gbaba can't be avoided. Either Safehold prepares for that confrontation, or the Gbaba stumble across Safehold disasterously unprepared.

Don

DrakBibliophile wrote:It is not a matter of "Safeholdians saying NO to a war against the Gbaba". The war would come if mankind returns to the stars sooner or later.

For that matter, we have no idea if the Gbaba are expanding their explored space. But if they are, then a low-tech Safehold might be found and destroyed thousands of years from "now".

There's also a third scenario, although one I haven't seen mentioned by anyone:

Quite simply, a third starfaring race could stumble across Safehold... and then run into the Gbaba. Given the performance of every other race that has met the Gbaba so far, I wouldn't bet on this third race to do any better.

And of course, even if none of the above happen and humans remain safe and hidden on Safehold for all time... well, stars and planets don't live forever.

DrakBibliophile wrote:First of all, Merlin's "plan" is to advance human technology until it surpasses the tech level of the Terran Federation before the "rematch" occurs.

Second, Merlin isn't planning to create a new tyranny to "lead mankind back to the stars to battle the Gbaba".

Third, his plan to stop the Church's restrictions on technological advances and to encourage humans to think in ways that would lead to new technology that surpasses the Terran Federation.

IMO once the Church is unable to stop technological development, technological development will occur leading to the point where Safehold humans can reach the stars once again.

From what David Weber has said, Safehold is far enough from Gbaba controlled/explored space that humans will be able to safely return to the stars and settle new world as long as they don't attempt to get close to old Federation territory.

Now David Weber has said that Shan-wei and Pei feared that when Langehorne's plan failed that humans would return to the stars and unknowingly enter Gbaba explored space thus attracting the attention of the Gbaba.

Merlin's plans thus are two-fold. First, is to restart technological advancement (which means breaking the power of the Church). Second, to prevent mankind from making contact with the Gbaba until mankind is ready for the re-match *that* will happen if mankind returns to the stars.

It is not a matter of "Safeholdians saying NO to a war against the Gbaba". The war would come if mankind returns to the stars sooner or later.

For that matter, we have no idea if the Gbaba are expanding their explored space. But if they are, then a low-tech Safehold might be found and destroyed thousands of years from "now".

Certainly good points.

I certainly agree that if Safeholdians do nothing but hide, there is a good chance that the Gbaba may do a random search and find them anyway. Certainly this is a good argument for developing technology immediately.

However, there will undoubtedly be people that will say that Langhorn's plan has worked out so far, considering the isolation from known Gbaba sectors, and that Safehold should continue to be a non-radiating hole in space, with nothing going on to attract the scouts' attention.

Certainly, they are entitled to look at all the information available and make that decision for themselves. Yet, they will not have that choice.

My point in describing Lt Commander Alban's plan as a "tyranny" is not to say that she will have to use evil means to force people to carry out her plans. She will not need the lash or the punishment of Scheuler to force people to work once the Rubicon of emissions into space is crossed. Once baseball games are sent over the radio, once television transmitters broadcast re-runs of I Love Lucy from the archives, once the dilithium crystals in the warp engines of Enterprise-class starships in orbit are fired up, there is no more option to hide. They no longer have the choice to do nothing and hide, because those emissions are radiating from the planet. The only choice would be to get with Alban's program, or wait for extinction.

In LAMA, Seijin Nimue noted that at the time of Operation Ark, the Federation military was "...over two point seven billion active-duty human beings, ninety percent of them combat personnel...", and the Federation lost. Safehold is nowhere near to being capable of fielding a military of that size, let alone build the needed warships.

Merlin is gambling that he can develop the needed technology to defeat the Gbaba, find enough resources and manufactures to build it, and train enough pre- Industrial Revolution level of people to man the fleet before the emissions caused by this program bring the Gbaba horde to level yet another human planet.

Likely there will be some Safeholdians who'll want to "continue to hide" just as there will be some who'll still believe Langhorne is an Archangel.

There will also be ones who while liking high-tech don't want to "seek out the Gbaba" even when Merlin believes mankind has a very good chance of winning against the Gbaba.

As for those who want to continue to hide, there have been suggestion that Safehold should (once star travel is possible) set up hidden colonies elsewhere in space "just in case". Those individuals/groups would be offered the chance to be part of the "hidden colonies".

For that matter, it may not be Safehold that returns to the stars.

It may be Charis and its allies that returns to space with other nations refusing to go.

I suspect that Merlin and his allies will allow those other nations to do what they want as long as they don't interfere with the plans to return to space.

IMO it will be generations before mankind will be ready for the rematch both in term of technology and numbers, so there will be plenty of time for debates.

As for their "choice", they may want to remain hidden but do they have the "right" to force others to remain hidden?

Sorry but there's no easy answers in real life and David Weber's writing reflect real life regarding that.

Hank Plantagenet wrote:

DrakBibliophile wrote:First of all, Merlin's "plan" is to advance human technology until it surpasses the tech level of the Terran Federation before the "rematch" occurs.

Second, Merlin isn't planning to create a new tyranny to "lead mankind back to the stars to battle the Gbaba".

Third, his plan to stop the Church's restrictions on technological advances and to encourage humans to think in ways that would lead to new technology that surpasses the Terran Federation.

IMO once the Church is unable to stop technological development, technological development will occur leading to the point where Safehold humans can reach the stars once again.

From what David Weber has said, Safehold is far enough from Gbaba controlled/explored space that humans will be able to safely return to the stars and settle new world as long as they don't attempt to get close to old Federation territory.

Now David Weber has said that Shan-wei and Pei feared that when Langehorne's plan failed that humans would return to the stars and unknowingly enter Gbaba explored space thus attracting the attention of the Gbaba.

Merlin's plans thus are two-fold. First, is to restart technological advancement (which means breaking the power of the Church). Second, to prevent mankind from making contact with the Gbaba until mankind is ready for the re-match *that* will happen if mankind returns to the stars.

It is not a matter of "Safeholdians saying NO to a war against the Gbaba". The war would come if mankind returns to the stars sooner or later.

For that matter, we have no idea if the Gbaba are expanding their explored space. But if they are, then a low-tech Safehold might be found and destroyed thousands of years from "now".

Certainly good points.

I certainly agree that if Safeholdians do nothing but hide, there is a good chance that the Gbaba may do a random search and find them anyway. Certainly this is a good argument for developing technology immediately.

However, there will undoubtedly be people that will say that Langhorn's plan has worked out so far, considering the isolation from known Gbaba sectors, and that Safehold should continue to be a non-radiating hole in space, with nothing going on to attract the scouts' attention.

Certainly, they are entitled to look at all the information available and make that decision for themselves. Yet, they will not have that choice.

My point in describing Lt Commander Alban's plan as a "tyranny" is not to say that she will have to use evil means to force people to carry out her plans. She will not need the lash or the punishment of Scheuler to force people to work once the Rubicon of emissions into space is crossed. Once baseball games are sent over the radio, once television transmitters broadcast re-runs of I Love Lucy from the archives, once the dilithium crystals in the warp engines of Enterprise-class starships in orbit are fired up, there is no more option to hide. They no longer have the choice to do nothing and hide, because those emissions are radiating from the planet. The only choice would be to get with Alban's program, or wait for extinction.

In LAMA, Seijin Nimue noted that at the time of Operation Ark, the Federation military was "...over two point seven billion active-duty human beings, ninety percent of them combat personnel...", and the Federation lost. Safehold is nowhere near to being capable of fielding a military of that size, let alone build the needed warships.

Merlin is gambling that he can develop the needed technology to defeat the Gbaba, find enough resources and manufactures to build it, and train enough pre- Industrial Revolution level of people to man the fleet before the emissions caused by this program bring the Gbaba horde to level yet another human planet.

Transmitting radio signals probably is not as dangerous as You might think. They travel at the speed of light, emit in all directions, and lose energy as they go. Safehold is millions of light years from old Sol, iirc. That would mean that it would take a light speed signal that many years to get back to the Gbaba, assuming it didn't completely run out of energy.

That colony that was detected by the Gbaba before Operation Ark must have been tramsmiting FTL.


Don

n7axw wrote:
I think that your assumption about Terran Federation tech is mistaken. IIRC, Terran tech actually managed to catch and perhaps even surpass the Gbaba, but didn't have enough time to employ the tech in sufficient quantity before being overwhelmed. Then we can assume that once Safehold is able to absorb TF tech that they will be able to develop it further which should give them a tech superiority since we know from textev that Gbaba tech is static and has been for several thousand years.

A more cogent question, I think, is how large an industrial base Safehold will have to have to produce the needed ships and weapons they must have to go hunting for the Gbaba. Safehold will not be up to the task alone. She will have to establish her own daughter worlds until she is at least as large if not larger than the TF. Then she will need to send off at least one if not more expeditions in the opposite direction as the Gbaba far enough away to insure that they are beyond the Gbabba's reach...all of this before a confrontation with the Gbaba is sought out.

Merlin's assumption is that a confrontation with the Gbaba can't be avoided. Either Safehold prepares for that confrontation, or the Gbaba stumble across Safehold disasterously unprepared.

Don

Agreed. One of the issues RFC wrote about in the Excalibur Alternative is fertility and population growth. Piggybacking on Drak's speculation that Charis and her Allies might be going into spece after the Gbaba while the deniers rest on Safehold, how does Charis and her allies grow their populations fast enough?

More than anything Merlin has to increase the size of the GDP his allies are using to prepare for the Gbaba. That means increasing technology but also population. Unless some pretty big incentives are in place to have many, many children, it will be at least a century before Safehold's population will be large enough to go toe to toe with the Gbaba. With a total fertility rate of 4 children per woman, it will take 5 generations to get up to 32 billion people. Assuming 20 years per generation, that's 100 years from this point in time. At a total fertility rate of 3 children per woman, it will take between 8-9 generations to hit that number or almost 2 centuries.

Until uterine replicators are developed, women must be having as many children as possible to grow Safehold's population. The longer that is delayed, the greater the chance that early discovery means humanity dies. Charis must prioritize population growth above just about any other strategic goal including technology development.

n7axw wrote:Transmitting radio signals probably is not as dangerous as You might think. They travel at the speed of light, emit in all directions, and lose energy as they go. Safehold is millions of light years from old Sol, iirc. That would mean that it would take a light speed signal that many years to get back to the Gbaba, assuming it didn't completely run out of energy.

That colony that was detected by the Gbaba before Operation Ark must have been tramsmiting FTL.


Don

The problem here is that the Federation never knew the total extent of Gbaba holdings. There could be a Gbaba virtually next door to Safehold and the Operation Ark crew never make sure there wasn't without tipping off the Gbaba that Operation Ark existed, triggering the very hunt they were trying to avoid.

Besides which, staying hidden for "all time" is a daunting proposition when you realize that "all time" is at LEAST the billions of years that Safehold has left. And the galaxy is only 100,000 lightyears across. Staying hidden for a few thousand years? Not even an eye blink as far as "all time" is concerned, especially if the Gbaba can sieve Safehold radio noise out of the background noise at a few hundred or thousand lightyears.

Any way you look at it, Langhorne's plan is ultimately unworkable in the long term.

n7axw wrote:Transmitting radio signals probably is not as dangerous as You might think. They travel at the speed of light, emit in all directions, and lose energy as they go. Safehold is millions of light years from old Sol, iirc. That would mean that it would take a light speed signal that many years to get back to the Gbaba, assuming it didn't completely run out of energy.

That colony that was detected by the Gbaba before Operation Ark must have been tramsmiting FTL.


Don

Not millions. Millions of light-years would put it in another galaxy. It is only thousands of light years from old Sol.

But you are correct that radio transmissions are probably not a huge danger at this point. In the original plan, the ban on high tech was intended to last only 500 years, the maximum period (with generous overestimates) that the Federation thought there was a danger that Gbaba probes would be chasing down potential human colonies.

The hidden colony that was discovered was not transmitting FTL, because it was deliberately not communicating with the rest of the Federation, until they had to give the warning. It must have been local transmissions that gave it away, and it was probably discovered because the Gbaba were looking for colonies like it.