Raid on Sol System-Another Option

n7axw wrote:By some of the logic I'm hearing here, the core should be a fire free zone. Who is left to target? The poorer protctorates in the shell? I'm sorry, gang, this is a war of the League's choosing. Let the League pay the price. You end it by severely pruning back the industrial capacity most likely to enable the enemy to wage war against you. Not to do so would be about the same as to exempt Germany's Ruhr industrial region during WW2.

Don

"We're at war with the Solarian League. Are YOU part of the Solarian League?"


You're thinking of the Solarian League as a monolithic entity, or at best tripartate -- core, shell, and Protectorates/Verge.

The Harrington Doctrine is to accelerate the breakup of the league by treating every member system as an autonomous, independent nation and ask them some variant of that question above. Further, offer a resumption of trade, protection from SLN retaliation, and whatever other "carrot" they can think of to pair with the implied "stick" applied to the Solarian League.

As the League fractures and splits apart, there are going to be cluster and groups that can't be addressed individually -- like the Proto-RF or Maya Sector -- and have to be treated as multi-system star nations; but as long as they don't self-identify as "Solarian League" or hostile, the GA can organize trade and defense or whatever treaties with them.

Dealing with the Transtellar corporations is going to be more of a problem than dealing with the majority of SL member systems.

Zakharra wrote:

Joat42 wrote:Considering the fact that Sol doesn't have any manufacturing industry to talk about (as I understand it) there is really no need to attack, a blockade will work just fine since Sol is dependent on goods manufactured elsewhere.

The implementation of Lacoon 1+2 are just the first stages, when the League starts fracturing we will see independent "protectorates" popping up all over the place and no-one will spare Sol a second thought.

What? If I remember right, the Sol system is still one of the main manufacturing systems in the League. The industrial facilities in orbit around Mars are huge and count for a -lot- of the League's industrial output. The Sol system isn't a has been or a ancient relic producing nothing. It's still vibrant and active and has a thriving economy, even if it is starting to feel the pinch of the shipping shortage and Lacoon I and II

Ah, my bad then.

Dafmeister wrote:Your argument seems to be missing the point the the GA can't win a conventional military victory, or at least doesn't think that it can. Even if it were able to destroy every fleet, every shipyard, every missile factory, the GA simply doesn't have the resources to conquer and occupy the League indefinitely.

Manticore doesn't have sufficient resources to do that. The Grand Alliance is quite possibly another story entirely.

drothgery wrote:

Dafmeister wrote:...the GA simply doesn't have the resources to conquer and occupy the League indefinitely.

Manticore doesn't have sufficient resources to do that. The Grand Alliance is quite possibly another story entirely.

The GA might be a bit closer to being able to occupy conquered systems, but I think it would fall a bit short.

Missile inventory is the only thing stopping Manticore alone from conquering the entire League. Occupying it is another matter entirely and is what led to the Harrington Doctrine of destroying the League instead of conquering it.

drothgery wrote:

Dafmeister wrote:Your argument seems to be missing the point the the GA can't win a conventional military victory, or at least doesn't think that it can. Even if it were able to destroy every fleet, every shipyard, every missile factory, the GA simply doesn't have the resources to conquer and occupy the League indefinitely.

Manticore doesn't have sufficient resources to do that. The Grand Alliance is quite possibly another story entirely.

I believe the League has over 2000 member and protectorate worlds. Even including all of the remaining systems of the Republic of Haven, the Talbott Quadrant and Manticoran Silesia, I doubt the GA can muster more than 300. Given the distances involved, I don't think the GA will be able to maintain the kinds of forces needed to cover that much space, not in the long term.

Dafmeister wrote:I believe the League has over 2000 member and protectorate worlds. Even including all of the remaining systems of the Republic of Haven, the Talbott Quadrant and Manticoran Silesia, I doubt the GA can muster more than 300. Given the distances involved, I don't think the GA will be able to maintain the kinds of forces needed to cover that much space, not in the long term.

Haven - ~150
Manticore (including Silesia and Talbott) - ~60
Andermani Empire (including Silesia) - ~60
Maya - ~30
Beowulf, Grayson, Erewhon, Torch, and other single-system powers - ~20

Not to mention
Members of the League that voted against censuring Beowulf - >300
OFS protectorates - 'hundreds'

I'm not necessarily saying occupying the League is a good idea, just that's not impossible for the GA.

phillies wrote:However, as explained in ART, in under two decades...or so proposed Captain Gweon...the Grand Alliance will have a larger economic capacity that the Solarian League.

Do recall that Captain Gweon's is an MAlign agent trying to induce the League to embark on a courts of action that will lead to its breakup. I'm sure his tradecraft is good enough not to put outright lies in his analysis, but you may want to consider the possibility that the assumptions, or analysis, are slanted in ways intended to get the Mandarins to act the way the Mesans want, instead of being done with the strict impartiality which would be justified in a loyal servant of the Invincble Solarian League.

Dafmeister wrote:

n7axw wrote:I guess this does to prove you have to say exactly what you mean. Obviously Beowulf is excluded. Unless we learn something completey unexpected in the next book, Beowulf is no longer a Solarian system.... Forty lashes less one with ye ole wet noodle on me!

Back to seriousness, it is also true that those large systems are the ones who have benefitted from the pillaging of the verge and thus have the most to lose when the applecart is upset. (Shrug)I'm not against approaching them diplomatically.

By some of the logic I'm hearing here, the core should be a fire free zone. Who is left to target? The poorer protctorates in the shell? I'm sorry, gang, this is a war of the League's choosing. Let the League pay the price. You end it by severely pruning back the industrial capacity most likely to enable the enemy to wage war against you. Not to do so would be about the same as to exempt Germany's Ruhr industrial region during WW2.

Don

Hi Don,

Your argument seems to be missing the point the the GA can't win a conventional military victory, or at least doesn't think that it can. Even if it were able to destroy every fleet, every shipyard, every missile factory, the GA simply doesn't have the resources to conquer and occupy the League indefinitely. An outright military defeat is perhaps the only think that could spark the sense of unity that the League has always lacked, and if enough of the major systems banded together to work on some analogue of Bolthole, the Alliance would eventually be facing a revanchist League faction that was at the very least capable of taking them on.

The Alliance's only hope for victory is that enough of the League's members will decide that the Mandarins' confrontation with Manticore and its allies is nothing to do with them and they're better of choosing to go their own way. It's not a perfect strategy with a guarantee of success, it's the one that the GA's leaders think offers the best chance of a long-term peace that preserves their independence.

A part of their strategy is to portray themselves to anyone who'll listen as the plucky little star nations standing up to the corrupt bullies of Old Chicago. If they attack the Sol System, the cradle of mankind, the mother world, in any way, even if they restrict themselves to SLN ships and bases and leave the industrial side alone , they won't won't be the underdogs any more. They'll be the Visigoths sacking Rome, the Mongols burning Baghdad and Santa Anna taking the Alamo all rolled into one.

Like you say, the GA can't win a military victory in the normal sense. But what seems to me to be missing in this logic is that they need to create the impression in the Solarian League that they can win a military victory. Along with the proffered carrot, there needs to be the stick... Stick with the Mandarins and pay the price, so to speak. They don't have to conquer and occupy to accomplish that. All they need do is to leave their targets with the question "is this really worthwhile?" at the same time they are making their offer of protection and trade. In short, we can protect you. The Mandarins can't. In fact, I wouldn't be surprise that if an allied fleet showed up on their doorstep that at least some of the targeted systems would take the offer soon enough to avoid having their infrastructure trashed.

The thing that can make this work is that according to text ev, loyalty to the League is quite weak. It has been more or less tolerated because up to this point it seemed to work. What I have proposed is a way of pointing out: "it's not working. You have lots to lose by staying with the League and everything to gain by a mutual defense arrangement and trade with the GA.

Don

n7axw wrote:Like you say, the GA can't win a military victory in the normal sense.

Manticore alone, or the GA CAN win an outright military victory. They have the technology, ships. missiles, LACs, etc, to completely gut the Solarian League.

The problem is that they can't survive the Peace that would follow that kind of purely military victory.

n7axw wrote:In fact, I wouldn't be surprise that if an allied fleet showed up on their doorstep that at least some of the targeted systems would take the offer soon enough to avoid having their infrastructure trashed.

I don't think flexing military muscle overtly in going to be necessary; an unbroken string of SLN defeats will accomplish the same thing without waving the "Stick" in a threatening manner.

n7axw wrote:The thing that can make this work is that according to text ev, loyalty to the League is quite weak. It has been more or less tolerated because up to this point it seemed to work. What I have proposed is a way of pointing out: "it's not working. You have lots to lose by staying with the League and everything to gain by a mutual defense arrangement and trade with the GA.

I think letting Beowulf diplomats take the lead with most League members will accomplish a better long-term realignment than threats of force. Portraying the whole conflict as self-defense and waving the example of Beowulf's secession fight will split the League just fine without waving the Big Stick around; just having it out there busily trashing SLN task forces will make the point that it exists.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:Like you say, the GA can't win a military victory in the normal sense.

Manticore alone, or the GA CAN win an outright military victory. They have the technology, ships. missiles, LACs, etc, to completely gut the Solarian League.

The problem is that they can't survive the Peace that would follow that kind of purely military victory.

n7axw wrote:In fact, I wouldn't be surprise that if an allied fleet showed up on their doorstep that at least some of the targeted systems would take the offer soon enough to avoid having their infrastructure trashed.

I don't think flexing military muscle overtly in going to be necessary; an unbroken string of SLN defeats will accomplish the same thing without waving the "Stick" in a threatening manner.

n7axw wrote:The thing that can make this work is that according to text ev, loyalty to the League is quite weak. It has been more or less tolerated because up to this point it seemed to work. What I have proposed is a way of pointing out: "it's not working. You have lots to lose by staying with the League and everything to gain by a mutual defense arrangement and trade with the GA.

I think letting Beowulf diplomats take the lead with most League members will accomplish a better long-term realignment than threats of force. Portraying the whole conflict as self-defense and waving the example of Beowulf's secession fight will split the League just fine without waving the Big Stick around; just having it out there busily trashing SLN task forces will make the point that it exists.

What SLN task forces are you envisioning? What do you think they will be doing? I've wondered about that. The SLN still has abt 1500 SDs out there. They can't really confront the GA. I do remember a discussion amongst the Mandarins about using fleet to supress succession amongst systems that might be so inclined who don't have access to Haven quadrant military tech.

I think that you are right about leading off with diplomacy. Beowulf could make the point about League members right to seceed under the constitution. There need be no demands made beyond getting systems to stop supporting the League and promises to respect said systems independence if that is complied with. Defense pacts and trade agreements can be additional carrots to help things along.

My original thought was cutworm style raids. I am not wedded to that but I find myself thinking that big stick waving can still be useful in underlining League impotence. If, for example, a system is host to an SLN base or has a shipyard manufacturing BCs for the SLN, I don't think you leave it in place. Big sticks do have a use.

Finally another thought which in a way is related to this one. An almost dominant theme here on the forums has been how big the the League is and how the GA could be overwhelmed if League gets its act together. But numbers or size have no use without cohesion and leadership to marshall those resourses. At this point in the story, the League doesn't. In fact the League stands more chance of coming unglued politically than it does surviving.

Don