Raid on Sol System-Another Option

JohnRoth wrote:A thought just occurred to me. What if the MAlign takes care of Hyperion One?

Who do you think they would frame for it?

Zakharra wrote:The destruction of the Sol system SLN fleet bases, building yards and orbital manufacturing facilities/industrial plant is a military necessity. It would be stupid to not take them out. If Manticore and the GA limited itself just to military facilities, and those that can build military vessels, and take care to let the crews evacuate the bases, then they should be fine. There will be some denouncement about the 'Unwarranted and vicious attack on the Heart of the Solarian League, the Homeworld of the human race, the Sol System, (Holy) Terra herself' and it would make good PR for the SL, anyone with a brain would realize it's a target just by existing, and there would be no way the Mandarins could spin just the destruction of the military facilities and space industrial installations as being unwarranted or vicious. Especially if people are given time to evacuate. There would be too many witnesses on too many forms of media. I cannot imagine the GA ships that did the raid would not be broadcasting information as to why they are doing it and why all over the system, which would make it very very difficult for the Mandarin's pet media sources to spin control the aftermath of the raid.

I have to disagree on this. Destroying the military/industrial infrastructure of the Sol System would be militarily desirable if, and only if, the Grand Alliance was pursuing a conventional military victory as resolution to the conflict with the League. They're not, because they know they can't achieve such a victory. The League is simply too large for them to do it, the best they could manage is to hit League military concentrations wherever and whenever they can find them. Ultimately, that's a losing strategy; sooner or later, the League will establish its own Bolthole analogue, use its vastly larger R&D potential to close the tech gap just like Haven did, then use its vastly greater industrial potential to build an overwhelmingly larger fleet and crush all the GA powers underfoot.

If, that is, the League holds together. The only chance the GA has is to make the League fall apart by convincing enough of its members that the League needs them a lot more than they need it. To do this, they need to cripple the League's ability to function at the federal level, which they accomplish by crippling its revenue sources. Case Lacoon is designed to achieve that by cutting the income from fees and tariffs, while operations like Mike's takeover of the Meyers sector is another line of attack, stripping away the protectorate fees.

In that context, if the Mandarins want to spend untold billions of credits trying to modernise the infrastructure in Sol to the point where it's useful in a modern war, then the GA should be cheering them on. Doing so will take years and cost money they can't replace easily, tying down resources that can't be used trying to hold the League together.

In this context, the last thing the GA want to do is give the League any kind of rallying point. They want the League's members looking to their own interests. If enough of the League suffers an attack of idealism, the GA is done for.

Dafmeister wrote:

Zakharra wrote:The destruction of the Sol system SLN fleet bases, building yards and orbital manufacturing facilities/industrial plant is a military necessity. It would be stupid to not take them out. If Manticore and the GA limited itself just to military facilities, and those that can build military vessels, and take care to let the crews evacuate the bases, then they should be fine. There will be some denouncement about the 'Unwarranted and vicious attack on the Heart of the Solarian League, the Homeworld of the human race, the Sol System, (Holy) Terra herself' and it would make good PR for the SL, anyone with a brain would realize it's a target just by existing, and there would be no way the Mandarins could spin just the destruction of the military facilities and space industrial installations as being unwarranted or vicious. Especially if people are given time to evacuate. There would be too many witnesses on too many forms of media. I cannot imagine the GA ships that did the raid would not be broadcasting information as to why they are doing it and why all over the system, which would make it very very difficult for the Mandarin's pet media sources to spin control the aftermath of the raid.

I have to disagree on this. Destroying the military/industrial infrastructure of the Sol System would be militarily desirable if, and only if, the Grand Alliance was pursuing a conventional military victory as resolution to the conflict with the League. They're not, because they know they can't achieve such a victory. The League is simply too large for them to do it, the best they could manage is to hit League military concentrations wherever and whenever they can find them. Ultimately, that's a losing strategy; sooner or later, the League will establish its own Bolthole analogue, use its vastly larger R&D potential to close the tech gap just like Haven did, then use its vastly greater industrial potential to build an overwhelmingly larger fleet and crush all the GA powers underfoot.

If, that is, the League holds together. The only chance the GA has is to make the League fall apart by convincing enough of its members that the League needs them a lot more than they need it. To do this, they need to cripple the League's ability to function at the federal level, which they accomplish by crippling its revenue sources. Case Lacoon is designed to achieve that by cutting the income from fees and tariffs, while operations like Mike's takeover of the Meyers sector is another line of attack, stripping away the protectorate fees.

In that context, if the Mandarins want to spend untold billions of credits trying to modernise the infrastructure in Sol to the point where it's useful in a modern war, then the GA should be cheering them on. Doing so will take years and cost money they can't replace easily, tying down resources that can't be used trying to hold the League together.

In this context, the last thing the GA want to do is give the League any kind of rallying point. They want the League's members looking to their own interests. If enough of the League suffers an attack of idealism, the GA is done for.

However, as explained in ART, in under two decades...or so proposed Captain Gweon...the Grand Alliance will have a larger economic capacity that the Solarian League.

Hutch wrote:First, the consensus here seems to be that the SEM/GA should not attack Sol System, since that could be used as a rallying cry by the Mandarins (or their replacements, whoever and whatever that would be) to keep the SL together and make it a longer and much more brutal conflict than the GA wants or needs (since their major goal is the MAlignment--the SL is simply in the way).

I think what those opposed to a direct strike on the Sol system are opposed to is a strike on the Sol system NOW.

Eventually, the GA needs to administer a coup de gras by eliminating the dregs of the SLN in the Sol system. However, doing so before they have accomplished "... split the League into separate sectors, into successor states ..." would be counter-productive.

Leaving the Sol system for last just means that all of the dregs of the SLN will have gathered together in one place where they can be destroyed at leisure. It is far more important to split the league apart than it is to perform a "decapitation strike" and give any member system reason to rally to the Mandarin's standard. SLN Ships that run to Sol for safety or refit are SLN ships that are out of a fight that won't last long enough for them to gain any effective modifications.

Dafmeister wrote:

Zakharra wrote:The destruction of the Sol system SLN fleet bases, building yards and orbital manufacturing facilities/industrial plant is a military necessity. It would be stupid to not take them out. If Manticore and the GA limited itself just to military facilities, and those that can build military vessels, and take care to let the crews evacuate the bases, then they should be fine. There will be some denouncement about the 'Unwarranted and vicious attack on the Heart of the Solarian League, the Homeworld of the human race, the Sol System, (Holy) Terra herself' and it would make good PR for the SL, anyone with a brain would realize it's a target just by existing, and there would be no way the Mandarins could spin just the destruction of the military facilities and space industrial installations as being unwarranted or vicious. Especially if people are given time to evacuate. There would be too many witnesses on too many forms of media. I cannot imagine the GA ships that did the raid would not be broadcasting information as to why they are doing it and why all over the system, which would make it very very difficult for the Mandarin's pet media sources to spin control the aftermath of the raid.

I have to disagree on this. Destroying the military/industrial infrastructure of the Sol System would be militarily desirable if, and only if, the Grand Alliance was pursuing a conventional military victory as resolution to the conflict with the League. They're not, because they know they can't achieve such a victory. The League is simply too large for them to do it, the best they could manage is to hit League military concentrations wherever and whenever they can find them. Ultimately, that's a losing strategy; sooner or later, the League will establish its own Bolthole analogue, use its vastly larger R&D potential to close the tech gap just like Haven did, then use its vastly greater industrial potential to build an overwhelmingly larger fleet and crush all the GA powers underfoot.

If, that is, the League holds together. The only chance the GA has is to make the League fall apart by convincing enough of its members that the League needs them a lot more than they need it. To do this, they need to cripple the League's ability to function at the federal level, which they accomplish by crippling its revenue sources. Case Lacoon is designed to achieve that by cutting the income from fees and tariffs, while operations like Mike's takeover of the Meyers sector is another line of attack, stripping away the protectorate fees.

In that context, if the Mandarins want to spend untold billions of credits trying to modernise the infrastructure in Sol to the point where it's useful in a modern war, then the GA should be cheering them on. Doing so will take years and cost money they can't replace easily, tying down resources that can't be used trying to hold the League together.

In this context, the last thing the GA want to do is give the League any kind of rallying point. They want the League's members looking to their own interests. If enough of the League suffers an attack of idealism, the GA is done for.

If the core of the SL and a good portion of the Shell and Protectorates hold together, the GA (Manticore mainly) is screwed if it doesn't make its moves. Playing just an economic game is a losing game if there's no plan for a military option. The GA's best chance is to try and get the SL to split into much smaller pieces, but if that doesn't work, if the SL doesn't break apart into small enough pieces (a very real chance large portions could stick together), then those remaining pieces have a good chance at quickly rearming. All of them are going to have incentive to improve and upgrade their military capacity.

So a hypothetical for you; what if a third, or even a quarter of the SL holds together despite everything Manticore does economically to split it apart? And that part is hostile to Manticore, what would Manticore's (I'm dropping use of the Grand Alliance name since it's Manticore which is running the show here and is getting the focus of the anger by the SL. Even in the GA, it's still Manticore calling the shots)options be?

Here's an idea, the SEM should do what was done between Cutworm and Sanskrit, while they were building up. Imagine the reactions on the core worlds if every 3 or 4 months a couple of destroyers popped in and went stealthy

Zakharra wrote: If the core of the SL and a good portion of the Shell and Protectorates hold together, the GA (Manticore mainly) is screwed if it doesn't make its moves. Playing just an economic game is a losing game if there's no plan for a military option.

You really do need to read Storm From The Shadows and/or the Oft-Quoted Paragraph.

There is a "plan" for "a military option" in the Harrington Doctrine:

The Oft-Quoted Paragraph
SftS Ch 44 wrote:... In other words, once we break the League militarily, once we splinter it into multiple, mutually independent star nations, we have to see to it that none of those star nations have any motive to fuse themselves back together and gang up on us all over again."

Zakharra wrote: Besides, isn't the hyper limits way out in space? Like past Saturn or farther out?

For the Sol system the hyperlimit is 21.12 light minutes from Sol or about 380 million km. Somewhere between Mars and Jupiter.

kzt wrote:

JohnRoth wrote:A thought just occurred to me. What if the MAlign takes care of Hyperion One?

Who do you think they would frame for it?

Some other system that has spider drive super-dreadnaughts, obviously. They don't have a fleet of SDs that have the same acceleration characteristics as Haven sector ships.

A more interesting question is why they'd do it.

kzt wrote:

JohnRoth wrote:A thought just occurred to me. What if the MAlign takes care of Hyperion One?

Who do you think they would frame for it?

It's not really possible for them to frame anyone for it. The only way they could do it is via a spider attack (even if they have a sufficiently powerful 'conventional' force tucked away, there's no way they could convince even the SLN that it was someone else), and even the Mandarins would reach the obvious conclusion that the same people who attacked Manticore and Grayson attacked them too.