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Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?

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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by SWM   » Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:28 am

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hanuman wrote:From Mr Weber's post:

[9] In terms of Grayson, it wasn't access to interstellar trade which was so economically transformative. It was access to modern interstellar technology, which it acquired through its alliance with Manticore much more than through general interstellar commerce. This is, in fact, one of the huge pro-Manticore influences in Yeltsin; the Graysons understand what Manticore's tech transfers have meant to themselves and to their children's futures. The Grayson economic boom, however, is largely self-fueled as the constraints on food production are gradually eliminated or at least greatly reduced (courtesy of Skydomes), as industry becomes geometrically more productive (courtesy of those tech transfers and of Manticoran investment), and as the Grayson labor force's purchasing power expands in step. The only real export product Grayson has at the moment are starships — military or commercial — and I believe that one can safely assume that Grayson will become/remain part of the Manticoran shipbuilding industry's network for the foreseeable future. In most other respects, however, Grayson's much more likely to be a net importer in the interstellar economy.


The bolded part implies that Grayson sells her ships (I assume civilian ships only, at this point) to other star nations than Manticore...which, come to think of it, still means a helluva lot of export income in absolute terms.

No, the bold part just says that Grayson will continue to sell ships to Manticore. It doesn't say anything about selling ships to anyone else.
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by drothgery   » Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:28 am

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Weird Harold wrote:
drothgery wrote:Eh. Planets where a large population of unmodified humans can survive for extended periods in an open-air environment would seem likely to be able to support growing cereal grains somewhere. Of course, there are planets in the Honorverse that pretty much aren't populated by unmodified humans ...


And then there are Planets like the Mfecanes, which were colonized by unmodified humans which modified the humans to suit. :shock:
Aside here... the Mfecane worlds' population was heavily genetically engineered from the start. Commentary from non-geneticists in CoS notwithstanding, the vast majority of why Thandi's people are like that is almost certainly the result of said genetic engineering; as with the Graysons heavy metal tolerance, there simply hasn't been enough time for major natural evolution.
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by Zakharra   » Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:09 am

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SWM wrote:
hanuman wrote:From Mr Weber's post:

[9] In terms of Grayson, it wasn't access to interstellar trade which was so economically transformative. It was access to modern interstellar technology, which it acquired through its alliance with Manticore much more than through general interstellar commerce. This is, in fact, one of the huge pro-Manticore influences in Yeltsin; the Graysons understand what Manticore's tech transfers have meant to themselves and to their children's futures. The Grayson economic boom, however, is largely self-fueled as the constraints on food production are gradually eliminated or at least greatly reduced (courtesy of Skydomes), as industry becomes geometrically more productive (courtesy of those tech transfers and of Manticoran investment), and as the Grayson labor force's purchasing power expands in step. The only real export product Grayson has at the moment are starships — military or commercial — and I believe that one can safely assume that Grayson will become/remain part of the Manticoran shipbuilding industry's network for the foreseeable future. In most other respects, however, Grayson's much more likely to be a net importer in the interstellar economy.

The bolded part implies that Grayson sells her ships (I assume civilian ships only, at this point) to other star nations than Manticore...which, come to think of it, still means a helluva lot of export income in absolute terms.

No, the bold part just says that Grayson will continue to sell ships to Manticore. It doesn't say anything about selling ships to anyone else.



Grayson at least has a new customer to make ships for. The RoH. I can't imagine they wouldn't be allowed to sell modern freighters to the RoH to help build that star nation's merchant fleet. If everyone has been making warships, but not merchant ships, this would suggest a large market for merchant ships since any losses in the merchant marine were not being easily replaced. Every slip that can build a merchant ship can technically do the same with a warship. I'd think Grayson is making money hand over fist by making merchant ships and being a local supplier.

Of course some Manty corps might be making merchant ships too. The Hauptman corp might be, I'm not sure, but I know they do make warships. They built Torch's frigates I believe. Either way, making merchant ships has to be earning those people a pretty penny for the time being.
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by runsforcelery   » Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:46 am

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J6P wrote:Well, MWW's post is nicely in depth, but:

He has also stated that moving cargo's in system via counter grav(see pearl several pages back) is actually just as expensive than shipping intrasteller!

Take Grain as an Example:

1) Have to yank the grain out of its gravitational well,
2) Transfer to Hyper capable ship
3) and then ship for weeks/months intrastellerly.
4) Transfer again
5) Enter gravitational well.

He just got done saying shipping via counter grav in system is expensive!

As if a counter grav intersystem grain bulk cargo hauler, couldn't use its counter grav to reach exo altitudes where there is no atmospheric drag(Power/$$$ sucking) and then coast ballistic to its destination without the rig-a-marole of trans shipment 2 EXTRA TIMES and the delay time of weeks/months.

Both scenario shuttles use counter grav. Both use their counter grav the exact same amount. Actually one scenario could use it less as they do not have to go to LEO... One is far faster. One is far cheaper. I will let you sleuth's figure out which scenario is better. :roll:

PS. Grass grows everywhere. Any planet that can sustain a population, other than a VERY rare oddball like Grayson, will sustain grain production. Those over populated could have a problem as well. Those who are ecological reserves coulc have a problem as they refuse to provide for themselves and feel entitled to impose their values on someone elses planet so they can feel like they are not harming their own planet. So, sure, in a very rare instances there will be some grain being shipped.


Excuse me, but where the hell did I say anything of the sort? To the best of my knowledge I have NEVER said ANYWHERE that interstellar shipping is cheaper than in-system shipping. If I have, then I was completely in error and I would very much like to see the text in which I said it! What I have said (repeatedly) is that aside from opportunity cost lost to time spent in transit and the costs of running the ship for a longer period between destinations (which are mainly personnel related, which helps to explain the desire for small crews on Manty vessels), interstellar shipping is no more expensive than in-system shipping. There are, obviously, greater start up costs, since the sublight in-system trader doesn't need alpha nodes or a hyper generator, but my preceding statement is essentially correct.

Now, where did I say anything to the contrary, please?


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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by hanuman   » Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:30 pm

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SWM wrote:No, the bold part just says that Grayson will continue to sell ships to Manticore. It doesn't say anything about selling ships to anyone else.


Which part of the phrase "Manticoran shipbuilding industry's network" do you not get? When talking about a 'network' in terms of a specific industry, we're talking about not only the manufacturers, but also the distributors AND the customers.

So yes, that word "network" does in fact imply that Grayson is selling her ships to Manticore's regular network of customers, not just to Manticore.
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by SWM   » Wed Jul 16, 2014 1:04 pm

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Zakharra wrote: Grayson at least has a new customer to make ships for. The RoH. I can't imagine they wouldn't be allowed to sell modern freighters to the RoH to help build that star nation's merchant fleet. If everyone has been making warships, but not merchant ships, this would suggest a large market for merchant ships since any losses in the merchant marine were not being easily replaced. Every slip that can build a merchant ship can technically do the same with a warship. I'd think Grayson is making money hand over fist by making merchant ships and being a local supplier.

Of course some Manty corps might be making merchant ships too. The Hauptman corp might be, I'm not sure, but I know they do make warships. They built Torch's frigates I believe. Either way, making merchant ships has to be earning those people a pretty penny for the time being.

No one has suggested that Grayson is not allowed or cannot sell to other customers. All we have said is that they are not and have not been. This is likely because they had enough work just building their own ships plus some for Manticore. They don't need more business.

You've been insisting that a star nation cannot be prosperous without lots of trade, and saying that Grayson must have lots of trade. But it doesn't. I'm not saying that Grayson won't develop a large trading economy in the future, but right now and for the last 18 years in the story, it has not and it has gotten along quite well. Your basic premise is flawed--it is not necessary in the Honorverse to have a large volume of trade in order to have a prosperous economy. It can help, but systems can be and frequently are relatively self-sufficient.
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by SWM   » Wed Jul 16, 2014 1:08 pm

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hanuman wrote:
SWM wrote:No, the bold part just says that Grayson will continue to sell ships to Manticore. It doesn't say anything about selling ships to anyone else.


Which part of the phrase "Manticoran shipbuilding industry's network" do you not get? When talking about a 'network' in terms of a specific industry, we're talking about not only the manufacturers, but also the distributors AND the customers.

So yes, that word "network" does in fact imply that Grayson is selling her ships to Manticore's regular network of customers, not just to Manticore.

Of course it means both the distributors and the customers. And in this case, the distributor is Grayson, and the customer is Manticore. That means Grayson selling to Manticore makes Grayson part of the Manticore shipbuilding network. Nothing in that phrase "Manticore shipbuilding network" implies that Grayson sells ships to anyone except Manticore. It could include Grayson selling to other Manticoran customers, but that is not automatically true. The simple fact that Grayson is selling to Manticore makes Grayson part of the network.
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by kzt   » Wed Jul 16, 2014 1:19 pm

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Zakharra wrote: Grayson at least has a new customer to make ships for. The RoH. I can't imagine they wouldn't be allowed to sell modern freighters to the RoH to help build that star nation's merchant fleet. If everyone has been making warships, but not merchant ships, this would suggest a large market for merchant ships since any losses in the merchant marine were not being easily replaced. Every slip that can build a merchant ship can technically do the same with a warship. I'd think Grayson is making money hand over fist by making merchant ships and being a local supplier.

No, the RoH has a LOT of ship construction facilities, while Grayson currently has NONE. Once the huge military construction boom is over in the not too distance future, what would you expect they will do with those shipyards and shipyard workers? I'd suggest that they will build merchant shipping instead of paying Grayson to build merchant shipping while also paying unemployment costs for all their shipyard workers.
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by Zakharra   » Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:55 pm

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kzt wrote:
Zakharra wrote: Grayson at least has a new customer to make ships for. The RoH. I can't imagine they wouldn't be allowed to sell modern freighters to the RoH to help build that star nation's merchant fleet. If everyone has been making warships, but not merchant ships, this would suggest a large market for merchant ships since any losses in the merchant marine were not being easily replaced. Every slip that can build a merchant ship can technically do the same with a warship. I'd think Grayson is making money hand over fist by making merchant ships and being a local supplier.

No, the RoH has a LOT of ship construction facilities, while Grayson currently has NONE. Once the huge military construction boom is over in the not too distance future, what would you expect they will do with those shipyards and shipyard workers? I'd suggest that they will build merchant shipping instead of paying Grayson to build merchant shipping while also paying unemployment costs for all their shipyard workers.



The RoH has been building warships, not necessarily merchant ships because Haven has always needed quantity of numbers as well as decent quality of ships to stay within military equality of Manticore. Right now, Grayson is capable of building merchant ships that are better than anything the RoH is capable of at this time. Plus with the war/need to be on guard against the SL, it's going to take years to build enough warships to just replace what was lost in the first Battle of Manticore.

It's also not going to take long for Grayson to replace the building slips that were lost. As RFC said;
No, but Oyster Bay missed by far the bulk of Grayson's orbital infrastructure . . . including its primary manufacturing base and orbital extraction industries. They killed the Blackbird Yards and the tech types working there; they didn't kill the people and industrial modules which built Blackbird in the first place. In fact, relative to its pre-Oyster Bay industrial capacity, Yeltsin's Star is better off than Manticore in many respects. Still not a good place to be, but better than it sounds like you were thinking.


The Blackbird Yards and everything there is what was destroyed. It's not going to take long, more than a few weeks, to rebuild the basic outline of the building slips so ship construction can start again.
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:13 pm

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runsforcelery wrote:Excuse me, but where the hell did I say anything of the sort? To the best of my knowledge I have NEVER said ANYWHERE that interstellar shipping is cheaper than in-system shipping. If I have, then I was completely in error and I would very much like to see the text in which I said it! What I have said (repeatedly) is that aside from opportunity cost lost to time spent in transit and the costs of running the ship for a longer period between destinations (which are mainly personnel related, which helps to explain the desire for small crews on Manty vessels), interstellar shipping is no more expensive than in-system shipping. There are, obviously, greater start up costs, since the sublight in-system trader doesn't need alpha nodes or a hyper generator, but my preceding statement is essentially correct.

Now, where did I say anything to the contrary, please?

The closest I can remember is a bit in More Than Honor which compared interstellar shipping to intraplanetary shipping.
More Than Honor: The Universe of Honor Harrington wrote:Transport of interplanetary or interstellar cargoes is actually cheaper than surface or atmospheric transportation (even with countergrav transporters), though even at 1,200 c (the speed of an average bulk carrier) hauling a cargo 300 light-years takes 2.4 months. It is thus possible to transport even such bulk items as raw ore or food stuffs profitably over interstellar distances.
But quote that doesn't say anything about in-system shipping, which mechanically is very similar to intersteller shipping except that the ship doesn't have to go as far and needn't be equipped with alpha nodes or a hyper generator. [edit: oops, I meant it doesn't compare the costs of interplanetary to interstellar shipping]

Although unless you assume that atmospheric counter grav shipping is less point to point (for example needs to make a lot of stops to gather and/or distributed the cargo) I'm not sure how a interstellar cargo can be transported cheaper than that same cargo across the face of a planet. (Since you could use the exact same countergrav cargo shuttles to move it around as you'd use to lift it to the freighter)
Last edited by Jonathan_S on Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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