Speculating on the GA-MAlign Conflict

n7axw wrote:I like to offer a friendly amendment here. They do know there has to be a bolthole (alias Darius). Those streak and spider drive ships have to have come from somewhere and they know that Mesa couldn't have produced them. Knowing that it's out there is a major part of finding it.

Don

True. I didn't mean that they don't suspect some sort of secret building area but that they don't have any idea where that building area is.

n7axw wrote:Congrats on the promotion, Harold. I was expecting that benchmark yesterday...

I don't pay much attention to my post count, but thanks anyway.

Amaroq wrote:

n7axw wrote:I like to offer a friendly amendment here. They do know there has to be a bolthole (alias Darius). Those streak and spider drive ships have to have come from somewhere and they know that Mesa couldn't have produced them. Knowing that it's out there is a major part of finding it.

Don

True. I didn't mean that they don't suspect some sort of secret building area but that they don't have any idea where that building area is.

I will further submit that even the GA probably does not as yet suspect something on the SCALE of Bolthole/Darius out of the resources of a single system entity like Mesa. That notion will be hard to overcome initially as they begin to dig into the records available on Mesa, looking for the kind of resource transfers that signaled the existence of Bolthole.

You see, Darius is NOT like Bolthole in many respects. It was NOT built up much by outside resource inputs. It was colonized, and colonized very carefully by the best covert operations entity in the history of mankind. Then it was built up to its current capabilities from its internal resources - over the course of 2+ centuries. It WILL NOT show up on any Mesa records as a resource sink. Essentially no connection will show at all, except possibly for a pattern in the movements of a very small, select group of people - who mostly didn't HAVE records in the visible Mesa databanks, or whose records have been very thoroughly expunged.

dreamrider

Hi dreanrider,

I will agree with your post except to point out that Houdini was carried out under less than ideal conditions and in far more haste than an operation that complicated should have been. All it would take to blow Houdini would be one disaffected person in the know left behind or some classified material overlooked on a computer somewhere to blow Darius.

The MAlign's security is good, but nobody's perfect which means that they aren't immune to Murphy's Law.

Don

n7axw wrote:Hi dreanrider,

I will agree with your post except to point out that Houdini was carried out under less than ideal conditions and in far more haste than an operation that complicated should have been. All it would take to blow Houdini would be one disaffected person in the know left behind or some classified material overlooked on a computer somewhere to blow Darius.

The MAlign's security is good, but nobody's perfect which means that they aren't immune to Murphy's Law.

Don

We did have some evidence of this (or the beginnings of it at least) at the end of CoG. I guess we'll see what will come of it...

Amaroq wrote:

n7axw wrote:Hi dreanrider,

I will agree with your post except to point out that Houdini was carried out under less than ideal conditions and in far more haste than an operation that complicated should have been. All it would take to blow Houdini would be one disaffected person in the know left behind or some classified material overlooked on a computer somewhere to blow Darius.

The MAlign's security is good, but nobody's perfect which means that they aren't immune to Murphy's Law.

Don

We did some evidence of this (or the beginnings of it at least) at the end of CoG. I guess we'll see what will come of it...

Now the question is, does Murphy play favorites or is he an equal opportunity user?

Zakharra wrote:
Now the question is, does Murphy play favorites or is he an equal opportunity user?

Of course, the Demon Murphy plays favorites. He only bothers the living. He leaves the dead alone.

The alliance knows the Malignment existing is forceing all their intelligence to be reviewed. top of that list why be so eager to retake torch, yet never attempt to survey or use the terminii. unless it is a malignment secret. The issue here, with out being able to use it, they wont find out where it leads. theycan guess that if important to the alignment, good chance it is defended, so dangerus to use, as junction assualts are tricky.
The thing even with ships guarding the felix system does not mean it is secure. I am betting fixed positions are better for guardding a junction than ships, but due to secrecy, ships are used. That means the allance could be potentially able to send ships and win.
They are desperate to find the true world/s of the MA, as if they dont, they stay in a very vulnerable position.
My bet is that with intelligence scrounged from taking mesa, and the capture of the slave ship transporting scientists at parmley station, they will know about the felix junction.
We know darius has stations, but how much defence does ttheir terminii have. it is the only secure loction they have, so best able to build defences openly.

if darius and felix are captured, then the MA have been really messed with, but to ensure long term victory, they need to deal with every planet a part of the alignment. but that would have to wait till they are known and the league is in open war, within. There is a chance pieces will escape. but the more resources, assets and material that can be taken or destroyed, the better position for the alliance. by the time the alignment is at all able to ight again, everyone knows who they and are wayching for them.

SYED wrote:The alliance knows the Malignment existing is forceing all their intelligence to be reviewed. top of that list why be so eager to retake torch, yet never attempt to survey or use the terminii. unless it is a malignment secret. The issue here, with out being able to use it, they wont find out where it leads. theycan guess that if important to the alignment, good chance it is defended, so dangerus to use, as junction assualts are tricky.

Yes, I'd imagine they're working overtime to reevaluate their intelligence. We've discussed previously whether they're going to decide the Torch wormhole is a "killer wormhole" or defended by someone, or whether they're going to leave the question open.

SYED wrote:The thing even with ships guarding the felix system does not mean it is secure. I am betting fixed positions are better for guardding a junction than ships, but due to secrecy, ships are used. That means the allance could be potentially able to send ships and win.

Mannerheim knows about two of the four termini of the Felix junction and is planning to develop it once they've got legal possession. Since there are two "secret" termini as well, the (probably) planned Astro Control and junction forts will almost certainly be staffed by MAlign people native to Mannerheim.

More to the point, we have a comment from RFC somewhere that they could well build some defenses at The Twins, which makes a much better cutout for any further investigation from the Torch end.

SYED wrote:They are desperate to find the true world/s of the MA, as if they dont, they stay in a very vulnerable position.

My bet is that with intelligence scrounged from taking mesa, and the capture of the slave ship transporting scientists at parmley station, they will know about the felix junction.

I think that's a stretch, since knowing about the Felix junction means they would know that Mannerheim is a member of the RF, which would immediately blow the entire RF's cover. I doubt if RFC is going to reveal that this early in the end-game.

We also don't know that Zack McBryde and Gail Weiss are going to be captured / defect at Parmley station. I think it's likely, but that's up to RFC. Given the amount of compartmentalization, whether either of them knows of the Felix junction is also questionable. I kind of doubt it, again from the plot viewpoint.

SYED wrote:We know darius has stations, but how much defence does ttheir terminii have. it is the only secure loction they have, so best able to build defences openly.

Actually, I'm not at all sure that Darius has one of the termini. That terminus may be in another system that's relatively close by --- I can't remember any textev that directly addresses the point. It might or might not be defended; I can see arguments either way. Defending it when nobody knows where the other end is at could be seen as a waste of resources.

SYED wrote:if darius and felix are captured, then the MA have been really messed with, but to ensure long term victory, they need to deal with every planet a part of the alignment. but that would have to wait till they are known and the league is in open war, within. There is a chance pieces will escape. but the more resources, assets and material that can be taken or destroyed, the better position for the alliance. by the time the alignment is at all able to ight again, everyone knows who they and are wayching for them.

I'd say it's game over. Knowing about Felix exposes Mannerheim, which in turn exposes the entire RF since they're going to come out in the open as a single star nation in the near future.

I've looked at various maps but I can't find where Darius is. Do we have any idea where in the Verge it's located? I remember from MoH that Detweiler comments it is not an easy voyage from Mesa even with the streak drive. I assume that means it's a lengthy distance away and maybe on the opposite side of the SL's volume.