Speculating on the GA-MAlign Conflict

n7axw wrote:These are good thoughts. We know that the Alignment thinks long term, over a period of centuries. But did their meddling to bring Manticore and the League into confrontation along with Oyster Bay and Cachat/Zilwicki revelations send Alignment timeline spinning out of control? Instead of extending the situation out longer, I can see things compressing and happening a lot quicker. Unpeeling the union will be very difficult, but not impossible.

There are two areas where the MAlign plans have or will change in response to unforeseen events like the GA.


First, there is the Renaissance Factor. They are going to look and act like the very opposite of the MAlign; their plan is to be an island of calm in a sea of chaos and uncertainty. The unforeseen event in this case is that the GA's war-time actions and post-war policies are going to severely reduce the chaos and uncertainty the RF is planning around. In order to gather all of the former SL into its clutches, the RF is either going to have to delay the end game or turn Conquistador.

Second, there is the Detweilers and Darius with all of the scientists and alpha lines pulled from Mesa by an accelerated Houdini. If Houdini was successful, then the Detweilers expect to have several decades, minimum, to finish the Lenny Dets and prepare for the final confrontation with the Haven Sector -- with a few assassinations and other disruptive behavior in the shadows.

The unforeseen events there are what prompted the acceleration of Houdini and whatever cover-up was missed for Zilwiki and Cachat to find regarding Houdini.

Further events on that front are likely to come quickly as more and more improvisation is forced on the Detweilers. The more they improvise, the more mistakes they're going to make and the more pressure they're going to feel to improvise.

The RF, otoh, are going to forced to go slow -- possibly so slow that they actually become the anti-genetic-manipulation force they pretend to be?

Crown Loyalist wrote:Darius being found is inevitable, it's necessary for the story to continue (assuming the good guys win). How, when isn't so clear; it depends on the pace of the story.

If I were the Malign, I'd sacrifice Darius ASAP, though. I'd let the Manticorans find it, preferably after I'm sure that the Renaissance Factor has managed to turn itself into one of humanity's great star nations (which, frankly, it should manage without great difficulty).

Once that is done, Darius isn't important anymore. It's just not. You can get Mesa's end goal - a reconsideration of the acceptability of genetic engineering - within the RF. With the RF as one of humanity's great states, a slow and steady reconsidering of that particular moral prohibition would be easy enough to pursue over time. It would be slow and take generations, and generations are long affairs now, but it's not hard by any means to accomplish.

Darius is important as Alignment arsenal... If you are poor ole Albrecht and want lots of spiders, streaks and whatever else your r&d might have cooked up, you don't want to give up Darius too fast.

One other thing to consider is that Alignment's goal isn't simply to get enerybody to "reconsider" the acceptability of genetic engineering; they are wanting to FORCE their perspective on everybody else.

Don

n7axw wrote:One other thing to consider is that Alignment's goal isn't simply to get enerybody to "reconsider" the acceptability of genetic engineering; they are wanting to FORCE their perspective on everybody else.

No, they only will force it on you if you don't want it. You are free to chose their way, or have it inflicted on you.

Edit: closed quote

A couple of points. First, Cauldron of Ghosts was the last book in the Torch sub-series. As far as I know, there are no more Weber-Flint collaborations planned in the Honorverse, at least at novel length. I think this means that we won't be seeing a lot of the Torch characters except in bit parts. I doubt if they'll be entirely gone, but I seriously doubt if we'll see Anton and Victor heading out to infiltrate something else, or Princess Ruth demonstrating how little she knows about history.

A second point: finding Darius means finding the Felix junction from one end or the other, and that will raise the question of exactly why Mannerheim only knows of two termini when the MAlign is actively using one they don't know about.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:These are good thoughts. We know that the Alignment thinks long term, over a period of centuries. But did their meddling to bring Manticore and the League into confrontation along with Oyster Bay and Cachat/Zilwicki revelations send Alignment timeline spinning out of control? Instead of extending the situation out longer, I can see things compressing and happening a lot quicker. Unpeeling the union will be very difficult, but not impossible.

There are two areas where the MAlign plans have or will change in response to unforeseen events like the GA.


First, there is the Renaissance Factor. They are going to look and act like the very opposite of the MAlign; their plan is to be an island of calm in a sea of chaos and uncertainty. The unforeseen event in this case is that the GA's war-time actions and post-war policies are going to severely reduce the chaos and uncertainty the RF is planning around. In order to gather all of the former SL into its clutches, the RF is either going to have to delay the end game or turn Conquistador.

Second, there is the Detweilers and Darius with all of the scientists and alpha lines pulled from Mesa by an accelerated Houdini. If Houdini was successful, then the Detweilers expect to have several decades, minimum, to finish the Lenny Dets and prepare for the final confrontation with the Haven Sector -- with a few assassinations and other disruptive behavior in the shadows.

The unforeseen events there are what prompted the acceleration of Houdini and whatever cover-up was missed for Zilwiki and Cachat to find regarding Houdini.

Further events on that front are likely to come quickly as more and more improvisation is forced on the Detweilers. The more they improvise, the more mistakes they're going to make and the more pressure they're going to feel to improvise.

The RF, otoh, are going to forced to go slow -- possibly so slow that they actually become the anti-genetic-manipulation force they pretend to be?

I agree with your post...mostly. What I am pointing out though is that if you are in the Alignment's position, the unpleasant fact that someone knows you are out there and what you are up and are now actively looking for you to means that you are no longer completely in control of your own agenda which you also have stated in different words. That could well mean that your hand is forced well before you intend. The long game is something you can no longer count on.

Don

kzt wrote:

n7axw wrote:One other thing to consider is that Alignment's goal isn't simply to get enerybody to "reconsider" the acceptability of genetic engineering; they are wanting to FORCE their perspective on everybody else.
/quote]
No, they only will force it on you if you don't want it. You are free to chose their way, or have it inflicted on you.

Picky, picky, picky... a distinction without meaning.

Don

n7axw wrote:I agree with your post...mostly. What I am pointing out though is that if you are in the Alignment's position, the unpleasant fact that someone knows you are out there and what you are up and are now actively looking for you to means that you are no longer completely in control of your own agenda which you also have stated in different words. That could well mean that your hand is forced well before you intend. The long game is something you can no longer count on.

Don

The Detweilers and Darius have that concern, true. That section of the Mesan Alignment has to dance to the beat of events' drumming.

The Renaissance Factor does NOT have anyone searching for them and as long as they are patient and stay low key, they can drag out their part of the grand plan indefinitely. They have absolutely nothing to worry about until Darius is discovered and conquered, and possibly not even then depending on how things shake out.

Mannerheim alone has to worry about the GA or Andermani finding the Felix Wormhole's Darius terminus; the other Renaissance Factor members can gasp in horror and throw Mannerheim to the wolves.

But, Until it becomes necessary to throw Mannerheim to the Wolves the RF can just maintain a low profile and wait for another night to take over the world.

Crown Loyalist wrote:Darius being found is inevitable, it's necessary for the story to continue (assuming the good guys win). How, when isn't so clear; it depends on the pace of the story.

If I were the Malign, I'd sacrifice Darius ASAP, though. I'd let the Manticorans find it, preferably after I'm sure that the Renaissance Factor has managed to turn itself into one of humanity's great star nations (which, frankly, it should manage without great difficulty).

Once that is done, Darius isn't important anymore. It's just not. You can get Mesa's end goal - a reconsideration of the acceptability of genetic engineering - within the RF. With the RF as one of humanity's great states, a slow and steady reconsidering of that particular moral prohibition would be easy enough to pursue over time. It would be slow and take generations, and generations are long affairs now, but it's not hard by any means to accomplish.

Crown,
I've long thought that what you describe, in some form, will be the RF's fate. I think, however, that the MAlign roots of it are likely to be lost in the process. I think it likely that late in the story-arc, some of the 'quieter' portions/systems of the RF will distance themselves from an increasingly impatient Detweiler clan, onion core and probably 1-2 of the 12 (?11?) other RF member systems. Mannerheim and probably Visigoth will actually grow tighter to core Malign.

GA will battle / defeat the latterly discovered portions of MAlign/RF. The lesser lights of RF will pull away in "shock, shock I say" that there noble attempt to salvage and stabilize their neighborhood of SL was so infiltrated and exploited by those evil forces. The RF will survive as a smaller-but-still-potent, less obviously aggressive successor state, one among a couple dozen, and be left as one of the future rivals of the Haven Sector powers in the new galactic order.

dreamrider

Hmm, I think the Andermani will be the ones dealing with the Onion, perhaps with with help of our spy friends from the Torch books. I think Mad Mike will return to the Verge systematically destroying Frontier Fleet.

The Onion will continue to use it's agents in League to keep the Grand Alliance busy.

At least that's how I read the bread crumbs, but then Mad Wizard Weber (MWW) (AKA runsforcelery (RFC) or David Weber) is noted for surprising us

Poker

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:I agree with your post...mostly. What I am pointing out though is that if you are in the Alignment's position, the unpleasant fact that someone knows you are out there and what you are up and are now actively looking for you to means that you are no longer completely in control of your own agenda which you also have stated in different words. That could well mean that your hand is forced well before you intend. The long game is something you can no longer count on.

Don

The Detweilers and Darius have that concern, true. That section of the Mesan Alignment has to dance to the beat of events' drumming.

The Renaissance Factor does NOT have anyone searching for them and as long as they are patient and stay low key, they can drag out their part of the grand plan indefinitely. They have absolutely nothing to worry about until Darius is discovered and conquered, and possibly not even then depending on how things shake out.

Mannerheim alone has to worry about the GA or Andermani finding the Felix Wormhole's Darius terminus; the other Renaissance Factor members can gasp in horror and throw Mannerheim to the wolves.

But, Until it becomes necessary to throw Mannerheim to the Wolves the RF can just maintain a low profile and wait for another night to take over the world.

Congrats on the promotion, Harold. I was expecting that benchmark yesterday...

Don