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Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?

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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by Brigade XO   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 8:53 am

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Silesia was a swamp of problems but neither the Aldermani nor Manticore wanted to or was able to commit the resources needed to deal with the whole problem in one pass.

As has already been mentioned here, Manticore wasn't looking to expand into a multi-stellar political state and even if there had been serious interest and pushing for that, the conservatives and anti-imperialists would have stopped it. The Aldermani wanted to grow but at a very measured pace and have a very firm grip on each bit they would take.

In both cases, they were concentrating on not being swallowed by PRH.

The internal political problems in Silesia continued to get worse and along with the existing local governmental partnerships with pirates, the number of systems which were breaking away from Confederacy control (however loose and ineffective it was) was increaseing. That led to people like Warnakie (spelling) setting themselves up as warlords and "revolutionary governments" which were really only pirates or criminal enterprises with not even the fig leaf of an actual revolution against something other than the rule of law rather than cover for a madman to hold tyranical power. Into that mix was thrown PRH commerce raiders and ultimately the attack on Sidemore Station.

Splitting Silesia between The Empire and the now SEM was actually an elegent solution. At least it worked for those two. The Confederacy was useless and even when it tried to stop its own fragmentation it was totally ineffective. All of the other problems- deep corruption, piracy, inter-system warfare amoung the member- paled before the challange of both concentrating on the PRH and stopping the constant bleeding of resources by both the Empire and SEM in trying to keep their own interests safe. Part of those interests were the trading and merchant shipping.

Now, instead of feeding ships- and only ships- into the area and dealing with the piracy while still having to work with the mostly ineffective Confederacy government and a lot of corrupt officials, The Empire and SEM have imposed actual control over the area.

The major difference between what they just did and what had been going on with either PRH or OFS is that with the partition of Silesia, the new governing forces are imposing an actual rule of law which will be evenly enforced not only on each of the systems but across the levels of government and populations. Neither Star Nation wants the anarchy to continue and neither will tolerate the corruption but both will let the local planets and systems maintain a high degree of local control---withing the framework of the legal systems of either the Empire or SEM dependent on who took which system.

What we have seen is the discussion of Adm. Sarnow both cleaning up the pirate activities (both the ships themselves and the people who supported them either as partners or just as fences for stolen goods) and being fierce in taking corrupt politicians and officials out of office. They screw up under the Manticorian laws and they end up on trial for their crimes and OUT OF OFFICE and IN PRISION- under the system of laws. The actual government looks to be moving in the direction of local control with vigilant oversite and enforcement. I suspect the Empire is working with a heavier hand but also being consistent in both enforcement and acting on problems.

With Silesia, the Empire and SEM had a relatively localized area and a fairly clear understanding of what they were dealing with. Even the step of removing the Confed Navy- and all of the "local" navies from the equation went a long way to solving some of the problems. Note that, at least on the Sarnow side, the Confed and other ships were folded into the SEM forces with a quick shaking out process that winnowed out the major criminal problems but left at least funtioning ships that could handle local duties under strong SEM control. Without the Confed Government and with the SEM forces overseeing control though the military and civilian people put in place, those system could begin to function in a much better manner.

Unfortunatly, this isn't going to happen with the SL and the Protectorates. Too many systems, too much corruption, and too many outside problems- the Alignment and its catspaws- to be able to put a net over it.
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 5:53 pm

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Brigade XO wrote:Silesia was a swamp of problems but neither the Aldermani nor Manticore wanted to or was able to commit the resources needed to deal with the whole problem in one pass.

As has already been mentioned here, Manticore wasn't looking to expand into a multi-stellar political state and even if there had been serious interest and pushing for that, the conservatives and anti-imperialists would have stopped it. The Aldermani wanted to grow but at a very measured pace and have a very firm grip on each bit they would take.

In both cases, they were concentrating on not being swallowed by PRH.
I suspect if Manticore hadn't had the Gregor and Basilisk wormhole termini to draw their merchants towards Silesia that the Andies would have been slowely absorbing parts of it over the last couple centuries.

They'd just play their normal fishing in troubled waters game. I'm sure it would just be a mater of time before some rebellious planet either applied to them for protection, or was stupid enough to pick a fight with them or their merchants. Then without Manticore working to keep them out they'd be free to absorb that system.

Given time to reform it they'd likely make it roughly as happy and prosperous a part of their little empire as any of their newer systems. Which might look pretty good compared to the normal Silesian instability. So sooner or later some other system will get bad enough to request or draw their attention -- and the cycle would continue.


I'm sure that would make their relations with the central Silesian Government quite chilly; but push comes to shove, without Manticore's support for the status quo Silesia doesn't have the military or economic strength to effectively retaliate against the Andies.
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by Lord Skimper   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 5:59 pm

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competing empires with lots of trade ships, lots and lots of trade ships losing 600 ships might seem like a lot but when you have 60,000 ships that is 1%. About when you take notice and fix the problem. Wars with Republics and competing Empires not wanting to get dragged into a war...
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by Uroboros   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 7:21 pm

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Lord Skimper wrote:competing empires with lots of trade ships, lots and lots of trade ships losing 600 ships might seem like a lot but when you have 60,000 ships that is 1%. About when you take notice and fix the problem. Wars with Republics and competing Empires not wanting to get dragged into a war...


60,000 ships? That's a rediculous amount of ships to be plying an area the size of Silesia. I'd be surprised if there were 60,000 flagged merchantmen in all of Honorverse.

If the average ship ranges around four- to six million tons, then you're talking about two hundred and forty to three hundred and sixty billion tons. Where are you getting these numbers from?
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by Duckk   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 7:29 pm

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It's Skimper. His numbers are usually completely made up.
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by Uroboros   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 8:13 pm

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Duckk wrote:It's Skimper. His numbers are usually completely made up.


True. However, I'm not going to hold him to different standards than the rest of the people who post here. If he makes a statement, he should be just as willing to back it up as anyone else here.

I realize this is probably about as likely as slaying windmills, but a man can dream.
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by MaxxQ   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 8:22 pm

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Uroboros wrote:
Duckk wrote:It's Skimper. His numbers are usually completely made up.


True. However, I'm not going to hold him to different standards than the rest of the people who post here. If he makes a statement, he should be just as willing to back it up as anyone else here.

I realize this is probably about as likely as slaying windmills, but a man can dream.


Don't hold him to *any* standards. Just put him on ignore. It'll make your life easier.
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by Lord Skimper   » Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:56 am

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60000 plus in the Manty merchant fleet. In Silesia, less much less, but until the pirate problem really started taking off, one would just rack the losses up to being the cost of doing business there. 600 ships lost over 50-100 years isn't that big of a deal, but when a couple hundred start happening quickly, then you just need to solve the problem. And they did.

At first it was a small ship problem but when it started to distract the war effort it needed to be solved, having it cement an alliance and bring a set of military forces onto your side by splitting the gains of Silesia, it just solves the pirate problems and adds to the early Alliance.

It would happen one way or another, it just happened at the correct time, the best time. Clean up your backyard and get your house of steel in order before you go and blow the house of Red Tape Down.

60,000 comes from our earlier thoughts on how many merchant ships transports etc. There was / is in the Manty Merchant civilian fleet. Closer to 100,000 than 1,000. Much much closer to the big number.

If there were only 1000 and yet twice that number in the military fleet of Manticore it would be too many military ships. Let alone the LAC.... Plus wormhole terminus transitions numbers and levels... There would likely be 1000 dispatch boats newsie ships etc.... Perhaps more at least one per world 2000 systems 2000+ ships add in 10-50 transports freighters big ship little ships.... Lots of ships. As for cargo numbers. The number you used are very small when dealing with 2000+ systems. 1-3 planets per system.

1.3 planets per 2000 systems, 2600 planets. 25 ships per planet on average, 65,000 ships. Could be less but unlikely. The League itself has / had 10,000 SD.

60,000 Manty civilian ships might be way low.
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by Lord Skimper   » Sat Jul 12, 2014 1:39 am

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2012 earth sea world trade was 9.165 billion tonnes of mixed cargo. Up 4 billion tonnes since 2000. Assuming we go up 10 to 100 times once asteroids start getting mined. In the next 2000+ years....

If ships are making 3 month journeys, that would be, using 5 million tonne ships. At 12 billion tonnes. 6,00-1,200 freighters for Earth alone. If you keep it pegged at 12 billion tons Multiply that by 60 main worlds and your looking at 12 billion tons per core world and 60 systems would be 36,000 to 72,000 ships of just goods.

At 2012 levels.

10 times levels would be 360,000 to 720,000 ships.


Lots and lots and lots of ships.

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=w ... 0081,d.cGE
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Re: Why did it take so long to deal with Silesia?
Post by Lord Skimper   » Sat Jul 12, 2014 1:55 am

Lord Skimper
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Lord Skimper wrote:2012 earth sea world trade was 9.165 billion tonnes of mixed cargo. Up 4 billion tonnes since 2000. Assuming we go up 10 to 100 times once asteroids start getting mined. In the next 2000+ years....

If ships are making 3 month journeys, that would be, using 5 million tonne ships. At 12 billion tonnes. 6,00-1,200 freighters for Earth alone. If you keep it pegged at 12 billion tons Multiply that by 60 main worlds and your looking at 12 billion tons per core world and 60 systems would be 36,000 to 72,000 ships of just goods.

At 2012 levels.

10 times levels would be 360,000 to 720,000 ships.


Lots and lots and lots of ships.

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=w ... 0081,d.cGE


Perhaps I should explain my math

12,000 / 5 = 2,400 / 4 (3 month a year per ship travel time). Or / 2 (3 month each way). 600 to 1,200 ships. Per main / core world. 36,000 to 72,000 ships. Based on Earth 2012 AD world trade levels. 9 billion tonnes = 80% of world trade done using sea transport. 3 billion land and air. Tonnes are 1.1 tons. Its metric. I rounded down.

If we assume all 2600 planets would trade at 2012 AD levels. Then we could assume at the low end there are 1.5 million trade ships. I was being conservative when I suggested 60,000.

60,000 trade ships would be less than 1 million crew. The Sollie SD crew levels alone would be 40 times that.

1.5 million ships would be less than 30 million crew.
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