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Long term consequences of the League's collapse

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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by SWM   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:45 pm

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Zakharra wrote: One of the ways the GA would know about the RF being MAlign is the use of ships with the streak or spider drives. The GA knows those are MAlign tech. But if the MAlign is smart, they might try to farm out that tech and have it be discovered in several places. The streak drive in one polity, the spider in another. sort of spread out the signs the MAlign knows the GA knows that is MAlign tech. So rather than one obvious target for the GA, there are three, or four or six different polities that show much the same tech. This makes it harder for the GA/Manticore to go after the MAlign and makes thew RF one possible target among many. It also poses the serious possibility of the GA/Manticore badly blackening their reputation if they try to stop those polities from using/exploiting that technology. Imagine spider MDM missiles.... *shudders*

The RF isn't going to be using spider and streak drive ships. Whatever made you think they would? Detweiler wanted the leaders of the RF to know that the Alignment had them--not so that the RF could use them, but so that they could feel confident in the Alignment navy which would be working secretly and unseen on their behalf.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by drothgery   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 2:38 pm

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SWM wrote:The RF isn't going to be using spider and streak drive ships. Whatever made you think they would? Detweiler wanted the leaders of the RF to know that the Alignment had them--not so that the RF could use them, but so that they could feel confident in the Alignment navy which would be working secretly and unseen on their behalf.
I suspect shortly after a non-MAlign-affiliated polity 'goes public' with a streak or spider drive ship, the RF will have 'independently developed' the same thing pretty quickly.

It's pretty much public knowledge that the streak and spider drives exist at this point. Unless Manticore is being far more cagey with what they've got from Simoes than I think, the streak drive and the math behind it are probably public now. And the existence of the spider drive (though not exactly how it worked) could be inferred from the non-detection of the forces employed for the Oyster Bay attacks. And both concepts have considerable military value. If there aren't entities that are neither Grand Alliance nor Alignment trying to reverse-engineer them, I'd be shocked.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Zakharra   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 3:15 pm

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SWM wrote:The RF isn't going to be using spider and streak drive ships. Whatever made you think they would? Detweiler wanted the leaders of the RF to know that the Alignment had them--not so that the RF could use them, but so that they could feel confident in the Alignment navy which would be working secretly and unseen on their behalf.


As drothgery puts it below:

drothgery wrote:I suspect shortly after a non-MAlign-affiliated polity 'goes public' with a streak or spider drive ship, the RF will have 'independently developed' the same thing pretty quickly.

It's pretty much public knowledge that the streak and spider drives exist at this point. Unless Manticore is being far more cagey with what they've got from Simoes than I think, the streak drive and the math behind it are probably public now. And the existence of the spider drive (though not exactly how it worked) could be inferred from the non-detection of the forces employed for the Oyster Bay attacks. And both concepts have considerable military value. If there aren't entities that are neither Grand Alliance nor Alignment trying to reverse-engineer them, I'd be shocked.



There are considerable military and civilian ramifications and applications for the drives. And the more polities that 'discover' the drives 'independently', the more cover the RF will have. The GA cannot just pounce on anyone that develops it and realistically it would be extremely stupid for the GA to try and demand access to the R&D that developed it to verify if it was MAlign tech. Especially if it looks like Manticore/GA is moving in just as a polity is getting some military technology that looks like it will start equalizing the military situation.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by SWM   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 3:50 pm

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Zakharra wrote:
SWM wrote:The RF isn't going to be using spider and streak drive ships. Whatever made you think they would? Detweiler wanted the leaders of the RF to know that the Alignment had them--not so that the RF could use them, but so that they could feel confident in the Alignment navy which would be working secretly and unseen on their behalf.


As drothgery puts it below:

drothgery wrote:I suspect shortly after a non-MAlign-affiliated polity 'goes public' with a streak or spider drive ship, the RF will have 'independently developed' the same thing pretty quickly.

It's pretty much public knowledge that the streak and spider drives exist at this point. Unless Manticore is being far more cagey with what they've got from Simoes than I think, the streak drive and the math behind it are probably public now. And the existence of the spider drive (though not exactly how it worked) could be inferred from the non-detection of the forces employed for the Oyster Bay attacks. And both concepts have considerable military value. If there aren't entities that are neither Grand Alliance nor Alignment trying to reverse-engineer them, I'd be shocked.



There are considerable military and civilian ramifications and applications for the drives. And the more polities that 'discover' the drives 'independently', the more cover the RF will have. The GA cannot just pounce on anyone that develops it and realistically it would be extremely stupid for the GA to try and demand access to the R&D that developed it to verify if it was MAlign tech. Especially if it looks like Manticore/GA is moving in just as a polity is getting some military technology that looks like it will start equalizing the military situation.

That's the thing--I don't think anyone outside the GA is going to independently develop either the Streak drive or the Spider drive for quite a while. And I don't think the RF will be so stupid as to "independently" develop either drive until enough people have discovered it that it is not suspicious. The RF is in it for the long game. They have no need to develop the Spider Drive or Streak Drive. They have the Alignment Navy to quietly deal with any situations that may require that kind of tech. There is no reason for the RF to endanger their secret.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Zakharra   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 5:49 pm

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SWM wrote:
Zakharra wrote:The RF isn't going to be using spider and streak drive ships. Whatever made you think they would? Detweiler wanted the leaders of the RF to know that the Alignment had them--not so that the RF could use them, but so that they could feel confident in the Alignment navy which would be working secretly and unseen on their behalf.[i]

As drothgery puts it below:

[i]I suspect shortly after a non-MAlign-affiliated polity 'goes public' with a streak or spider drive ship, the RF will have 'independently developed' the same thing pretty quickly.

It's pretty much public knowledge that the streak and spider drives exist at this point. Unless Manticore is being far more cagey with what they've got from Simoes than I think, the streak drive and the math behind it are probably public now. And the existence of the spider drive (though not exactly how it worked) could be inferred from the non-detection of the forces employed for the Oyster Bay attacks. And both concepts have considerable military value. If there aren't entities that are neither Grand Alliance nor Alignment trying to reverse-engineer them, I'd be shocked.



There are considerable military and civilian ramifications and applications for the drives. And the more polities that 'discover' the drives 'independently', the more cover the RF will have. The GA cannot just pounce on anyone that develops it and realistically it would be extremely stupid for the GA to try and demand access to the R&D that developed it to verify if it was MAlign tech. Especially if it looks like Manticore/GA is moving in just as a polity is getting some military technology that looks like it will start equalizing the military situation.

That's the thing--I don't think anyone outside the GA is going to independently develop either the Streak drive or the Spider drive for quite a while. And I don't think the RF will be so stupid as to "independently" develop either drive until enough people have discovered it that it is not suspicious. The RF is in it for the long game. They have no need to develop the Spider Drive or Streak Drive. They have the Alignment Navy to quietly deal with any situations that may require that kind of tech. There is no reason for the RF to endanger their secret.



Aah.. just using the ships that have that tech sends a signal to the GA that the MAlign navy is active and around. If other nations 'develop' the tech, it gives the RF/MAlign some cover. And there's nothing to say that just because the GA can't make them now, other nations cannot have designed and made their own. It doesn't necessarily need to be the drives at first, but some of the other tech (minus the assassin/remote control nanotech of course) the MAlign has. But there are multiple opportunities for the MAlign to spread out what the GA is looking for. If the GA demands that nation(s) to see or share the development process and end result, the nation(s) can rightfully refuse (who would blame them?) or demand the GA share -its- MDMs., inertial compensators and/or gravitronic FTL units with them in exchange for a look at the new tech.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Weird Harold   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 7:55 pm

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Zakharra wrote:There's going to be a military conflict between the RF and the GA sooner or later. The RF's goals are not going to coincide with the GAs at all in the long run. The RF's stated hidden goal as laid out by Albretch (?) is it replacing the SL in it's entirety. It will seek to have the rest of the SL systems join it, it will seek to be militarily equal with Manticore and the GA, it will seek to be better technology-wise over the GA and it will seek ITS best interests and its own policy over that of the GA.


For the short to medium term, the RF's goals and the GA goals are going to be roughly the same as every other former SL system: Stop the Chaos and bring back business as usual.

In the long-term to very long term, the RF's goal of becoming a new, more authoritarian SL, is going to conflict with almost everyone's self interest. If their expressed strategy of "going slow and letting other systems ask to join" is followed, it will be several centuries before there is any military element to the conflict. By that point, the Solarian League will be a historical footnote and the political situation will have evolved beyond recognition.



Zakharra wrote:
Weird Harold wrote:Yeah, but I hardly consider High Ridge and his merry band of bandits as typical of Manticore's foreign policy traditions.


Probably not, but the fact a group like High Ridge was able to get into power doesn't mean another one like him cannot get into power again. Unless the SEM changes its laws, eventually, a group like High Ridge's will ascend to the Prime Ministership and control of the government, and there won't be anything the Queen/King will be able to do to stop it, nor will the treecats be able to stop it just because they dislike those people.


The regime of the High Ridge government will be precisely why the next Monarch to face such a choice will opt for the Constitutional crisis over "don't make waves in the middle of a war" -- the latter is the choice Elizabeth made, and in hind-sight sees as one of her greatest mistakes.

It is impossible to state categorically that such a venal and corrupt group won't get control of Manticore in the future, but the mere fact of the dog's dinner High Ridge and his merry band of bandits made of their time in office will work against anyone else doing something similar.

On the other hand, you're ignoring the point that the High Ridge administration represents slightly under 4/471 of Manticore's Constitutional Monarchy -- 0.8% of Manticore's history.

Zakharra wrote:Peoples intentions and cultures change and arrogance and self entitlement settles in, so how the treaties are interpreted will change over time. Look at what happened to the Solarian League and how it interpenetrated its own constitution and laws.


That is true. I tend to think that 471 years of fairly consistent non-aggression and non-expansion would tend to impose a bit of restraint on drastic changes. The SEM has stated a policy of non-expansion to the point of declining requests for admission except under extraordinary circumstances. This is especially true for former SL systems as the intent is to suppress any hint of expansionism or Imperialism.

I think it will take the Very Long term -- several centuries -- before Manticore changes enough to become predatory.

Zakharra wrote:If Manticore is seen doing this;
... The GA should be able to manage nodal fleet stations and random patrols over that many systems. Not that I believe complete Naval coverage will be either practical or desirable once Part One of the Harrington Doctrine is complete.


That comes off as being expansionist. Look at what happened to the Silesian Confederacy where the RMN ran patrols for a century. An empire and a kingdom split the Confederacy and it's now under their control.


Manticore ran anti-piracy patrols in Silesia for four centuries and was never seen as expansionist; Even when circumstances forced them to divide the Confederacy with the Andermani, they effectively bought the systems from corrupt confederacy and system governors. Not much information beyond the bare fact of partitioning is given in textev, but there are hints that Manticore and the Andermani are seen more as saviors than conquistadors.


Note also, that nodal deployments are a Part One artifact and I specifically noted that they would be neither practical nor possible once Part One is complete.

What forces the GA maintains in the former SL sphere will be anti-piracy and mutual defense response forces -- mostly cruisers and smaller. IOW, the force mix appropriate to commerce protection and not the force mix of Conquistadors waiting to pounce.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Weird Harold   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 8:02 pm

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hanuman wrote:The Solarian League imposed its version of peace on the rest of humanity RIGHT FROM THE START. The OFS, Frontier Fleet, the intimate relationship between the federal bureaucracy and the transstellar corporations, the corruption and nepotism, the oppression and exploitation of Protectorate worlds - NONE of those things are recent developments. They are the symptoms of a condition that has existed since the very founding of the League.


OFS imperialism, corruption, and nepotism are indeed not recent developments, but neither are they as old as the League. The League evolved over its 1,000+ year history into the corrupt monster it is now. Perhaps as little as a century ago, the fracture lines the Harrington Doctrine is intended to exploit weren't there and the League and SLN arrogance was fully justified.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Weird Harold   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 8:11 pm

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Zakharra wrote:There are considerable military and civilian ramifications and applications for the drives.


:? :? :? :? :?

There are?

The only civilian use that makes economic sense -- and not much of that -- would be for News agencies to build a fleet of Streak Drive couriers. A very few luxury liners might invest in Streak Drives for very high-end travel for the rich and famous.

Other than that, I can't see much civilian application for either drive and none for the Spider Drive.

Zakharra wrote:The GA cannot just pounce on anyone that develops it and realistically it would be extremely stupid for the GA to try and demand access to the R&D that developed it to verify if it was MAlign tech. Especially if it looks like Manticore/GA is moving in just as a polity is getting some military technology that looks like it will start equalizing the military situation.


I doubt that Manticore or the GA would be anywhere near that crude and inept. If they want to know where the tech originated, they will ask Anton and Victor to find out for them -- assuming regular espionage assets can't turn up enough information. :roll:
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by SWM   » Thu Jul 10, 2014 11:23 pm

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Zakharra wrote:
SWM wrote:That's the thing--I don't think anyone outside the GA is going to independently develop either the Streak drive or the Spider drive for quite a while. And I don't think the RF will be so stupid as to "independently" develop either drive until enough people have discovered it that it is not suspicious. The RF is in it for the long game. They have no need to develop the Spider Drive or Streak Drive. They have the Alignment Navy to quietly deal with any situations that may require that kind of tech. There is no reason for the RF to endanger their secret.



Aah.. just using the ships that have that tech sends a signal to the GA that the MAlign navy is active and around. If other nations 'develop' the tech, it gives the RF/MAlign some cover. And there's nothing to say that just because the GA can't make them now, other nations cannot have designed and made their own. It doesn't necessarily need to be the drives at first, but some of the other tech (minus the assassin/remote control nanotech of course) the MAlign has. But there are multiple opportunities for the MAlign to spread out what the GA is looking for. If the GA demands that nation(s) to see or share the development process and end result, the nation(s) can rightfully refuse (who would blame them?) or demand the GA share -its- MDMs., inertial compensators and/or gravitronic FTL units with them in exchange for a look at the new tech.

So what if it tells the GA that the Alignment is still around. That's not news! The Alignment doesn't need any "cover", except that they will undoubtedly try as often as possible to use them only when it cannot be proven that they were actually used. I say again, there is no reason for the RF to produce Streak or Spider Drive ships until plenty of other people have already done it. Manticore is not going to be able to tell from the use of Streak and Spider ships that the RF is affiliated with the Alignment.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by BobfromSydney   » Fri Jul 11, 2014 12:01 am

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I agree, the GA should not be offering military technology (maybe export level versions of smaller/mid sized ships (and LACs or even module-constructed fortresses) to anyone outside of the alliance.

A sudden and uneven shift in the galactic arms mix combined with dissolution of the league would be a big reciepe for instability and war.

I think that post SL states would value three things above all:
1. Security
2. Access to Trade (Markets)
3. Access to Technology

In general I think everything else can be satisfied internally since each state has access to the 'resources' of an entire star system.
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