Long term consequences of the League's collapse

Weird Harold wrote:

Zakharra wrote: ... but as soon as Manticore thinks one of them will become a threat to it, then that nation will be on the chopping block. ...

Where has Manticore shown any historical tendency to act as obtuse and arrogant as you assert they will in the former SL?

See the actions of the High Ridge government towards its allies right after Cromarty was assassinated in Ashes of Victory.

hanuman wrote:In a sector right on the border of the Star Empire. However, would she have dispatched a task force to intervene somewhere located, oh, two or three hundred lightyears away from either the Star Empire's borders or a wormhole under the Star Empire's control?

The Harrington Doctrine has to start disassembling the Solarian League somewhere. I wouldn't expect the Talbot Quadrant's assigned fleet to be wandering off to some random system two or three hundred light-years away in some other fleet's area of Operations.

hanuman wrote:Sure, I agree completely. On the other hand, we are looking at a rough globe that is, by now, way bigger than a thousand lightyears in diameter, with literally thousands upon thousands of inhabited star systems.

According to the Universe of Honor Harrington:

Worlds of Honor
The Universe of Honor Harrington
The Solarian League
wrote:Composed of the oldest colony worlds, the Solarian League extends for roughly ninety-eight light-years from the Solar System. Old Earth is the League's capital but is only first among equals, as her daughter colonies had enjoyed centuries (in some cases over a millennium) of independence from the mother world and were unwilling to surrender their sovereignty when the new star nation emerged.

The Shell and OFS Protectorates probably double that radius, and that is the region of immediate concern to the GA. Human Occupied Space may well be "way bigger than a thousand lightyears in diameter, with literally thousands upon thousands of inhabited star systems," But those inhabited star systems outside the space directly influenced by the Solarian League are of minimal importance.

hanuman wrote:Not even the Grand Alliance as a whole has enough warships, supply ships, repair ships and troop transports to cover all of human space, never mind Manticore alone. And without military muscle, diplomacy will always be nothing but an empty gesture.

IIRC, the Solarian League claims 1,800 or so systems, not including protectorates. The GA should be able to manage nodal fleet stations and random patrols over that many systems. Not that I believe complete Naval coverage will be either practical or desirable once Part One of the Harrington Doctrine is complete.

hanuman wrote:Yes, in SOME areas the GA-maintained 'safe zones' will eventually spread to star systems beyond those zones, but it will take time to do so, because the GA does not and cannot ever have enough military forces to speed the process up.

The GA will not be acting alone. They will be upgrading treaty partners in the same way they have upgraded Manticore Alliance partners and the Marsh system. Those treaty partners will be the primary spread of prosperity and safety to the remoter parts of the former SL.

hanuman wrote:However, in OTHER areas there will be too much chaos and turmoil to result in your '60s hippy' scenario. Think sub-Saharan Africa after neocolonisation. Or the Middle East, for that matter.

In the Short Term, you're probably correct. In those cases, the "Masadan Solution" might be applied -- with assistance from local treaty partners where feasible. In the long-term, recalcitrant systems can just be bypassed and ignored once any threat they pose to neighboring systems is dealt with.

hanuman wrote:Importantly, the GA members are not the only actors on the galactic stage. There are a LOT of independent actors, or there will be. Each and every star system will have its own motives, its own self-interest, its own ideological stance, its own perception of galactic affairs, its own insecurities and its own goals. Yes, many of them will align themselves with the GA, but many will refuse to do so for reasons of their own.

That is exactly why the Harrington Doctrine will work; despite differences in ideology and goals, self-interest will draw the majority into trade and foreign aid treaties, if not mutual defense treaties. It isn't necessary that those systems have treaties with GA Members, only that they work through diplomatic channels with someone and not through aggressive military channels.

The Andermani, Renaissance Factor, Erewhon, Pheonix Cluster, Beowulf, and new treaty organizations within the former SL, all provide varying degrees of the peace and stability necessary for Manticoran survival under the Harrington Doctrine. Manticore, and through it, the GA, can't physically occupy or even support every system that formerly made up the Solarian League. The best they can do is make strategic choices for direct association and encourage indirect associations through the strategic allies.

They still need enough friends in the former SL space to surround and encapsulate "unfriends" -- eg a majority of the 1,800 or so former SL systems to be friends with somebody in the GA.

Note that "somebody in the GA" and the list of alternative "peace-keepers;" It serves the same purpose for a confederacy to develop around Beowulf, or former SL members to join the Phoenix Cluster or ally with Maya or Erewhon as it does if the systems are direct treaty partners with Manticore.

hanuman wrote:And here is the truth, namely that the GA's common ethical and ideological orientation will preclude the use of military power to force other star nations to align themselves with itself. That would simply lead to the re-emergence of the kind of imperialism the GA is committed to eradicate, but this time with the GA itself as the driving force.

Moreover, the GA will be restrained in exactly how much diplomatic or economic pressure it can apply, because such pressure could very easily turn around and bite it in the backside - remember that self-interest I mentioned in the previous paragraph. NO world can reasonably be expected to sacrifice its own interests in favour of those of the GA, and I don't think the GA's leaders would do that except in extreme cases.

One of the points Honor makes in the Oft-quoted Paragraph is that Manticore -- and by extension the GA -- cannot be seen as expansionist. They cannot afford to absorb former SLN systems into the SEM and must rely on trade and mutual defense treaties and Foreign Aid. The only thing they have to insist on is real Neutrality.

In no case, is there any suggestion that a system should sacrifice its self interest and every implication that playing to a systems self-interests is the way to make them friends instead of enemies.

hanuman wrote:So the final point I wish to make, is that humans are collectively and individually too diverse, too self-aware and too self-driven to ever allow the kind of neat and stable environment you predict in the long run.

Yet the Solarian League and most of the rest of Human occupied space has had exactly that for over a millennium. The Harrington Doctrine aims at a return to the peace and prosperity the League knew before the Bureaucracy and SLN became so corrupt.

There have been wars on the fringes of the League, like the recent Manticore-Haven wars and there have been spates of Conquistador action from the Andermani and Legislaturalists, but in general and especially in those systems of most interest to the Harrington Doctrine Peace and Prosperity have been the rule rather than the exception.

The OFS Protectorates and Verge are probably the least peaceful regions, but even the Protectorates have been peaceful, if not prosperous, for the most part.

Vince wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:Where has Manticore shown any historical tendency to act as obtuse and arrogant as you assert they will in the former SL?

See the actions of the High Ridge government towards its allies right after Cromarty was assassinated in Ashes of Victory.

Yeah, but I hardly consider High Ridge and his merry band of bandits as typical of Manticore's foreign policy traditions.

I suppose that's why Honor incuded the following caveat:

The Oft-quoted paragraph wrote:And once we have those peace treaties, we have to not only honor them, but step beyond them.

Vince wrote:Some review as to where the Harrington Doctrine is originally grounded might be helpful. I've highlighted the critical sections, but the entire quotes are worth reading to get an idea of how Honor views the universe.

SNIP, SNIP, SNIP

Good points. One could wind up quoting most of the main series to outline the context of the Harrington Doctrine.

Her encounter with Warnecke and the treaty she outlined for Marsh. Her handling of tensions with the IAN as station commander in Marsh.

Her advocacy and negotiations with Haven for a lasting peace.

Even her handling of the courts martial on Hades shines some light on the mind behind the Harrington Doctrine.

Zakharra wrote: On a different topic, how do you think the GA will attack the RF and convince the other SL systems that it really is the MAlign and not the GA/Manticore being imperialistic and taking out a competitor? If the MAlign plays its cards right, it will be hard to get real proof. The Manties and GA and Beowulf just saying they are MAlign isn't going to be enough. They need to get hard solid proof and that's going to be difficult to get in a way that others will really believe. Right now, if you didn't know about the MAlign details we read in the book and had just the information the average Solarians had, it honestly comes off as a conspiracy theory, and a rather cooky one at that. It's all the fault of one super secret cabal corporation that has done all of this without being discovered even once in 400 years or more? It's rather hard to believe. So if the GA wants people to believe it, they need hard proof that can be independently (ie, not by any GA member or ally) verified.

This question makes several unwarranted assumptions--including that Manticore will quickly discover and try to attack the Renaissance Factor.

I don't think they will figure out the RF that easily. I think they will attack the problem from other directions. Yes, Manticore will keep an eye out for systems that might be under Alignment control, whether they are openly antagonistic or apparently benign. But I don't think it will be as easy for Manticore to distinguish them as you imply. They will be cautious, but they will have to accept any reasonable peaceful agreements that they can reach with former Solarian systems, whether or not they suspect ulterior motives.

I think they will make better progress trying to track down Alignment connections in the former SLN and government, in analysis of people and materials on Mesa and the genetic slavery network, and in developing new technologies and counters to suspected Alignment technologies. Something will break for them; they can afford to be patient. There is no need for them to force the issue with any suspected Alignment puppet governments, unless they happen to get a break and pick up actionable intelligence.

SWM wrote:

Zakharra wrote: On a different topic, how do you think the GA will attack the RF and convince the other SL systems that it really is the MAlign and not the GA/Manticore being imperialistic and taking out a competitor? If the MAlign plays its cards right, it will be hard to get real proof. The Manties and GA and Beowulf just saying they are MAlign isn't going to be enough. They need to get hard solid proof and that's going to be difficult to get in a way that others will really believe. Right now, if you didn't know about the MAlign details we read in the book and had just the information the average Solarians had, it honestly comes off as a conspiracy theory, and a rather cooky one at that. It's all the fault of one super secret cabal corporation that has done all of this without being discovered even once in 400 years or more? It's rather hard to believe. So if the GA wants people to believe it, they need hard proof that can be independently (ie, not by any GA member or ally) verified.

This question makes several unwarranted assumptions--including that Manticore will quickly discover and try to attack the Renaissance Factor.

I don't think they will figure out the RF that easily. I think they will attack the problem from other directions. Yes, Manticore will keep an eye out for systems that might be under Alignment control, whether they are openly antagonistic or apparently benign. But I don't think it will be as easy for Manticore to distinguish them as you imply. They will be cautious, but they will have to accept any reasonable peaceful agreements that they can reach with former Solarian systems, whether or not they suspect ulterior motives.

I think they will make better progress trying to track down Alignment connections in the former SLN and government, in analysis of people and materials on Mesa and the genetic slavery network, and in developing new technologies and counters to suspected Alignment technologies. Something will break for them; they can afford to be patient. There is no need for them to force the issue with any suspected Alignment puppet governments, unless they happen to get a break and pick up actionable intelligence.

There's going to be a military conflict between the RF and the GA sooner or later. The RF's goals are not going to coincide with the GAs at all in the long run. The RF's stated hidden goal as laid out by Albretch (?) is it replacing the SL in it's entirety. It will seek to have the rest of the SL systems join it, it will seek to be militarily equal with Manticore and the GA, it will seek to be better technology-wise over the GA and it will seek ITS best interests and its own policy over that of the GA.

Weird Harold wrote:

Vince wrote:Where has Manticore shown any historical tendency to act as obtuse and arrogant as you assert they will in the former SL?
See the actions of the High Ridge government towards its allies right after Cromarty was assassinated in Ashes of Victory.

Yeah, but I hardly consider High Ridge and his merry band of bandits as typical of Manticore's foreign policy traditions.

I suppose that's why Honor incuded the following caveat:

The Oft-quoted paragraph wrote:And once we have those peace treaties, we have to not only honor them, but step beyond them.

Probably not, but the fact a group like High Ridge was able to get into power doesn't mean another one like him cannot get into power again. Unless the SEM changes its laws, eventually, a group like High Ridge's will ascend to the Prime Ministership and control of the government, and there won't be anything the Queen/King will be able to do to stop it, nor will the treecats be able to stop it just because they dislike those people.

Peoples intentions and cultures change and arrogance and self entitlement settles in, so how the treaties are interpreted will change over time. Look at what happened to the Solarian League and how it interpenetrated its own constitution and laws.

One of the points Honor makes in the Oft-quoted Paragraph is that Manticore -- and by extension the GA -- cannot be seen as expansionist. They cannot afford to absorb former SLN systems into the SEM and must rely on trade and mutual defense treaties and Foreign Aid. The only thing they have to insist on is real Neutrality.

If Manticore is seen doing this;

IIRC, the Solarian League claims 1,800 or so systems, not including protectorates. The GA should be able to manage nodal fleet stations and random patrols over that many systems. Not that I believe complete Naval coverage will be either practical or desirable once Part One of the Harrington Doctrine is complete.

That comes off as being expansionist. Look at what happened to the Silesian Confederacy where the RMN ran patrols for a century. An empire and a kingdom split the Confederacy and it's now under their control. If Manticore establishes nodal command (and keeps control over most of the wormhole junctions), and keeps acticve patrols and attempts to bind the systems to it, it's going to be seen as expansionist and over time will be, especially if the systems around those nodal points start joining the SEM or are conquered if they are a problem. IE, Manticore will be projecting its power as far as it can to ensure no one polity becomes a threat. As Vince quoted, Honor Harrington herself noted that diplomacy without military muscle to back it up is hollow and weak in the end because sometimes, fairly often really, diplomacy will not work.

One thing of note, in ART, chapter 2, page 24, where merchant ship captain Lev Wallenstine was speaking to Sharon Selkirk, the Shadwell Corp's senior shipping exec for the Mendelschon system about the recall activation of Lacoon !.
"I can't believe this is happening." She shook her head again. "I'm sure that if your people would just sit down with our people we could work this out. There is always a way to work things out if people are just willing to be reasonable!'

UUnfortunately, that requires both sides to be reasonable," Wallenstein pointed out, and Selkirk's eyes widened in surtprise. She started to say something back, quickly, but stopped herself in time, and Wallenstein smiled a bit grimly.

Almost said it, didn't you, Sharon? he tho9ught. Of course we're supposed to be reasonable. And I'm sure you meant what you just said about reasonable people working things out. Unfortunately, the Solarian view of "reasonable" is people agreeing to do things the League's way,. The notion that the League might have to be reasonable doesn't even come into it, does it?

He rightfully points out that in a reasonable discussion that -both- sides need to be reasonable. That's all well and good. But you've thrown about the word reasonable and others like it an awful lot, as if Manticore's Doctrine is the most reasonable thing there is and that people would be fools not to take it, after all it benefits them too, right? One can have that view and it can work, if one ignores that it's all ultimately based on what's best for Manticore. Not for everyone else. It's to Manticore's best interests that something the size and power of the SL never forms again. If the people of the former SL want to remake the SL in a better form, which would be good for them, in their best interests, that's NOT in Manticore's interests, and Manticore will take steps to stop that from forming. Reasonable, in this sense, is agreeing to do things Manticore's way, not the other system's way.

Weird Harold wrote:

hanuman wrote:So the final point I wish to make, is that humans are collectively and individually too diverse, too self-aware and too self-driven to ever allow the kind of neat and stable environment you predict in the long run.

Yet the Solarian League and most of the rest of Human occupied space has had exactly that for over a millennium. The Harrington Doctrine aims at a return to the peace and prosperity the League knew before the Bureaucracy and SLN became so corrupt.

There have been wars on the fringes of the League, like the recent Manticore-Haven wars and there have been spates of Conquistador action from the Andermani and Legislaturalists, but in general and especially in those systems of most interest to the Harrington Doctrine Peace and Prosperity have been the rule rather than the exception.

The OFS Protectorates and Verge are probably the least peaceful regions, but even the Protectorates have been peaceful, if not prosperous, for the most part.

Harold, we are arguing in circles here, and it's become clear that neither of us will manage to convert the other to his own point of view. I think it's time for me to withdraw from this discussion until something new is added.

However, I'll add one last point, which you seem to have ignored.

The Solarian League imposed its version of peace on the rest of humanity RIGHT FROM THE START. The OFS, Frontier Fleet, the intimate relationship between the federal bureaucracy and the transstellar corporations, the corruption and nepotism, the oppression and exploitation of Protectorate worlds - NONE of those things are recent developments. They are the symptoms of a condition that has existed since the very founding of the League.

Moreover, the League wasn't the result of an organic process, but was founded as a result of a unique, once-off event that threatened the very existence of humanity's homeworld - its very purpose was to prevent such a disaster from ever happening again. In many ways, it can be compared to the European Union of today, which was founded to prevent another devastating conflict on the scale of the Second World War from ever happening again on European soil.

And just like the EU, the citizens of the League have very little loyalty and almost no sense of patriotic duty to the League as a polity, mostly because of its artificial nature.

And THAT is why the League is so fragile, and why it will shatter when those who are hostile towards it put enough pressure on the fracture lines that permeate its society, politics and economics.

An analogy between America and Europe is in order at this point, to illustrate my point. The European Union is, as I already wrote, an artificial construct - in general Europeans have very little loyalty to the EU as a polity, and in almost every single member country the popular support for the EU has never been all that overwhelming. Europeans seem to have very little sense of being European.

Americans on the other hand generally seem to identify first as citizens of the United States, and only after that as citizens of their individual states. Their sense of patriotism, of being American, is not impacted by piffling little crises such as the economic meltdown of 2008, no matter how ideologically or politically divided they might be among themselves.

The chances that America might disintegrate due to outside pressure at any point within the foreseeable future are nil. The chances that the EU might be disbanded are considerably higher than that.

I hope that makes my position clear wrt the Solarian League and the Harrington Doctrine. What does it MATTER to Manticore or the GA if a strong, imperialistic star nation emerges from the ruins of the League somewhere on the other side of Sol from the Haven Sector? It shouldn't, because such a star nation cannot conceivably threaten the GA.

Now, if such a star nation emerged within the vicinity of the Haven Sector, it will be another matter altogether - especially if it was aggressively expansionist AND hostile towards the GA's members.

But the point I'm making here is that the best way to achieve the kind of galaxy-wide stability you are propounding, is to let the situation after the League's collapse sort itself out in an organic manner - which, unfortunately, will result in tremendous turmoil for a long, long time. The imposition of a Pax Manticora throughout human space will not only be impossible, but also counterproductive, because it will not allow the rest of human space to 'restart' that organic process that was put on hold with the creation of the Solarian League.

Zakharra wrote: There's going to be a military conflict between the RF and the GA sooner or later. The RF's goals are not going to coincide with the GAs at all in the long run. The RF's stated hidden goal as laid out by Albretch (?) is it replacing the SL in it's entirety. It will seek to have the rest of the SL systems join it, it will seek to be militarily equal with Manticore and the GA, it will seek to be better technology-wise over the GA and it will seek ITS best interests and its own policy over that of the GA.

There probably would be a military conflict between the RF and GA sooner or later. But from the perspective of the RF, there is no reason for that to happen for decades, if at all. Your question assumes that Manticore will initiate conflict with the RF, and the way it is phrased seems to assume that this will happen in the near term rather than the long term. Basically, the entire subtext of the question is assuming things that I don't think we can assume.

Your question was: how does Manticore convince the rest of the galaxy that the RF is evil. First, it assumes that Manticore figures out that the RF is evil. It also assumes that the Mesan Alignment is not exposed and destroyed before the RF becomes a viable force. It assumes Manticore initiates the conflict, rather than the RF. And it assumes that Manticore would consider attacking the RF before it has a good reason to present to the rest of the galaxy. By presenting your question in this way, you are prejudicing the answers to conform with your own expectations of what will happen.

As I said, I don't think it will happen that way at all.

SWM wrote:

Zakharra wrote: There's going to be a military conflict between the RF and the GA sooner or later. The RF's goals are not going to coincide with the GAs at all in the long run. The RF's stated hidden goal as laid out by Albretch (?) is it replacing the SL in it's entirety. It will seek to have the rest of the SL systems join it, it will seek to be militarily equal with Manticore and the GA, it will seek to be better technology-wise over the GA and it will seek ITS best interests and its own policy over that of the GA.

There probably would be a military conflict between the RF and GA sooner or later. But from the perspective of the RF, there is no reason for that to happen for decades, if at all. Your question assumes that Manticore will initiate conflict with the RF, and the way it is phrased seems to assume that this will happen in the near term rather than the long term. Basically, the entire subtext of the question is assuming things that I don't think we can assume.

Your question was: how does Manticore convince the rest of the galaxy that the RF is evil. First, it assumes that Manticore figures out that the RF is evil. It also assumes that the Mesan Alignment is not exposed and destroyed before the RF becomes a viable force. It assumes Manticore initiates the conflict, rather than the RF. And it assumes that Manticore would consider attacking the RF before it has a good reason to present to the rest of the galaxy. By presenting your question in this way, you are prejudicing the answers to conform with your own expectations of what will happen.

As I said, I don't think it will happen that way at all.

First question - How does the GA even identify the RF?

Its not like they are going to be the only mutual defense/ mutual trade association coalescing out of the chaos.

The RF could hide for years, or conceivably forever under current conditions, if they end up not aggressively pursuing MAlign objectives short-term. I'm not sure that would even be 'hiding'.

dreamrider

dreamrider wrote:

SWM wrote:There probably would be a military conflict between the RF and GA sooner or later. But from the perspective of the RF, there is no reason for that to happen for decades, if at all. Your question assumes that Manticore will initiate conflict with the RF, and the way it is phrased seems to assume that this will happen in the near term rather than the long term. Basically, the entire subtext of the question is assuming things that I don't think we can assume.

Your question was: how does Manticore convince the rest of the galaxy that the RF is evil. First, it assumes that Manticore figures out that the RF is evil. It also assumes that the Mesan Alignment is not exposed and destroyed before the RF becomes a viable force. It assumes Manticore initiates the conflict, rather than the RF. And it assumes that Manticore would consider attacking the RF before it has a good reason to present to the rest of the galaxy. By presenting your question in this way, you are prejudicing the answers to conform with your own expectations of what will happen.

As I said, I don't think it will happen that way at all.

First question - How does the GA even identify the RF?

Its not like they are going to be the only mutual defense/ mutual trade association coalescing out of the chaos.

The RF could hide for years, or conceivably forever under current conditions, if they end up not aggressively pursuing MAlign objectives short-term. I'm not sure that would even be 'hiding'.

dreamrider

One of the ways the GA would know about the RF being MAlign is the use of ships with the streak or spider drives. The GA knows those are MAlign tech. But if the MAlign is smart, they might try to farm out that tech and have it be discovered in several places. The streak drive in one polity, the spider in another. sort of spread out the signs the MAlign knows the GA knows that is MAlign tech. So rather than one obvious target for the GA, there are three, or four or six different polities that show much the same tech. This makes it harder for the GA/Manticore to go after the MAlign and makes thew RF one possible target among many. It also poses the serious possibility of the GA/Manticore badly blackening their reputation if they try to stop those polities from using/exploiting that technology. Imagine spider MDM missiles.... *shudders*