Long term consequences of the League's collapse

Weird Harold wrote:

hanuman wrote:Okay, so what exactly do you mean by "long term"? Ten years? Twenty? Fifty?

That would be somewhat variable, faster for Core worlds and slower for Verge worlds with poor education systems.

An average would probably be around twenty-five years.

hanuman wrote:Because I have to tell you, as time passes the chaos that will follow upon the League's disintegration will inevitably spread inwards from the Verge and the Protectorates. It will take years, but more likely decades, before we'll see any kind of stable economic and diplomatic environment emerging.

Whether chaos spreads inward or stability spreads outward will depend a lot on the success or failure of the Harrington Doctrine. The sooner a former member secedes and asserts neutrality or enters into some sort of mutual defense and trade agreements -- with ANYBODY -- the less chaos they'll endure and the less chaos from the verge will affect them.

A successful Harrington Doctrine is going to hamper the RF's expansion plans, because it envisions a lot of strong, stable, and independent star nations. But with the GA and RF both offering to provide trade and protection, the success of warlords and conquerors is going to be limited to the Verge and Protectorates.

Of course, my optimism is predicated upon the Harrington Doctrine being more successful that the Renaissance Factor's 'big government' solution and the MAlign's manipulations.

Your optimism also seems to be based on the GA not using military force (which is a part of the Harrington Doctrine, HD) to slap down one or more of the successor states that don't meet Manticore's approval.

As far as I understand it, the GA and SEM aren't looking to expand into SL space. The RF will be doing exactly that, but it has the head start of being composed of former SL systems, they will be seen as a part of the former SL. The SEM and GA will be seen as outsiders. I think you're also over optimistic in there being little warlord/conqueror activity in the Core. I think there will be more than most people think. There are some Core systems that don't really like other Core systems, or Shell systems.

Some of you here seem to be visualizing the League as a federal system similar to the USA.

I would like this clarified, but I don't think that it is. The League is more like a loosely formed confederacy. It has a constitution that is completely unworkable because any member system can veto any law that passes. The League has no authority to interfere with the internal affairs of its member systems. Because the political arm of the League is impotent, its bureaucrats rule by regulation without effective political accountability, at least in terms of regulating commerce between systems.

The US federal government, on the other hand, can effectively pass laws directly impacting the public. Exactly what the basis of this and the limits of this are in a state of flux. The constitution does leave powers not explicitly granted the fed to the states. But the federal government has power in two areas. First the fed is given the power to regulate interstate commerce. Secondly, Congress can pass laws relating to enforcing the constitution and the Federal courts determine the constitutionality of those laws. The 14th amendment specifically comes to mind. The thrust of both of these areas has continually expanded, to the discomfort of those who wish to curb federal power.

Ofentimes it seems that the political bias of the presiding judges determines whether federal power ebbs or flows. Perhaps unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be any "politically neutral." But OTOH, it does show the whole system as a living organism changing with the times, as tumulteous as the process might seem.

Pretenses aside, unlike Solarian member states, American states are not sovereign. While states can challenge laws they don't like in federal court, there is no right to nulify federal law. Nor is there any right to succeed from the union.

While I think I got it mostly right above, the relationship of the Solarian League to its members is unclear to me and I am unaware of textev that would provide additional clarity. My contention for now, though, is that the SL is not a federal system.

Don

The Shingaine Convention is Solarian law. It was not signed by Manticore and in the last section where it was used, it was pointed out -to the Solarians quoting it- that the SL has a couple of signifcant instances where the SL voliated it to bring certain systems to heal.

Hypocracy is always a wonderful way to get things thrown back in your face if you protest something citing a leagal precedent. It was run through the buracacy and even through the SL diplomats and was implemented in yet another LEGAL way to force systems to bend to the will of the bureaucrats and grease the path for heir large contributors in the Transtellars.

Zakharra wrote:Your optimism also seems to be based on the GA not using military force (which is a part of the Harrington Doctrine, HD) to slap down one or more of the successor states that don't meet Manticore's approval.

If the GA has to use military threats or force against successor states, then the Harrington Doctrine has failed. The main point of the Harrington Doctrine is "I destroy my enemy when I make him my friend." The idea is to create a climate that encourages autonomous and independent systems and eliminates the need to agglomerate into large polities for mutual support.

There is a military component to the Harrington Doctrine, but it is directed almost exclusively at the SLN. The message for Member States is, "We're at war with the Solarian League and its corrupt bureaucracy. If you're not part of the League, we're not at war with you."

Zakharra wrote:As far as I understand it, the GA and SEM aren't looking to expand into SL space. The RF will be doing exactly that, but it has the head start of being composed of former SL systems, they will be seen as a part of the former SL. The SEM and GA will be seen as outsiders.

The RF's recruitment pitch: "Join us. We have a strong central government and a better Navy than the rogue elements of the SLN. (All you have to do is give up your autonomy.)"

The GA's pitch: "We have lots of stuff to trade for your stuff. We also have the best Navies anywhere, so we can protect you until you can train up your own Navy and shipbuilding."

Which pitch would be more attractive to formerly autonomous members of the SL?

Zakharra wrote:I think you're also over optimistic in there being little warlord/conqueror activity in the Core. I think there will be more than most people think. There are some Core systems that don't really like other Core systems, or Shell systems.

I don't deny that there will be warlords and conquistadors in the Core Worlds, I just think their activities will be limited and short-term.

I also doubt that the Harrington Doctrine will be no more concerned about some fairly large Successor States than they are about the Andermani Empire and Maya Sector, or were about the Silesian Confederacy; as long as there are diplomatic relations and no overt hostility, there will be no reasons for military intervention.

Weird Harold wrote:

Zakharra wrote:Your optimism also seems to be based on the GA not using military force (which is a part of the Harrington Doctrine, HD) to slap down one or more of the successor states that don't meet Manticore's approval.

If the GA has to use military threats or force against successor states, then the Harrington Doctrine has failed. The main point of the Harrington Doctrine is "I destroy my enemy when I make him my friend." The idea is to create a climate that encourages autonomous and independent systems and eliminates the need to agglomerate into large polities for mutual support.

There is a military component to the Harrington Doctrine, but it is directed almost exclusively at the SLN. The message for Member States is, "We're at war with the Solarian League and its corrupt bureaucracy. If you're not part of the League, we're not at war with you."

You're ignoring that one of the points of the Harrington Doctrine IS the use of military force if the GA/Manticore deems it necessary. You're adding unrealistic expectations if you think Manticore won't have to resort to force a few times. Manticore is going to make sure NONE of the successor states are ever a threat to it. Diplomacy and economic ties won't always work. And the GA and RF are going to get into a shooting war sooner or later, so there goes the Harrington Doctrine by your reasoning, yes?

Besides, it's going to be the former SL systems that form states, or the few sector governors or SLN FF/BF units that hold onto some/many systems to form a successor state. But the SL bureaucracy as an entity will be dead.

There are going to be a fair number of systems that do not want to be Manticore's friend. Why can't you see that? Human nature being what it is, most people of the SL will believe that it's the GA/Manticore's fault the SL collapsed. Unless the MAlign does something really stupid, the GA just shouting to the galaxy that the RF is Manpower/Mesan Alignment isn't going to be believed when there's little proof.

Zakharra wrote:As far as I understand it, the GA and SEM aren't looking to expand into SL space. The RF will be doing exactly that, but it has the head start of being composed of former SL systems, they will be seen as a part of the former SL. The SEM and GA will be seen as outsiders.

The RF's recruitment pitch: "Join us. We have a strong central government and a better Navy than the rogue elements of the SLN. (All you have to do is give up your autonomy.)"

The GA's pitch: "We have lots of stuff to trade for your stuff. We also have the best Navies anywhere, so we can protect you until you can train up your own Navy and shipbuilding."

Which pitch would be more attractive to formerly autonomous members of the SL?

Off hand, I'd say the RF's. The Ga is going to be seen as the instigator and force that made the SL stumble and co9llapse. I think the RF strategy is going to be much more subtle than people give credit for. As each system joins, they will probably use subtle means to get their people into the leadership positions. The MAlign has planned for this for centuries (although how they kept operational security for that long with spreading their long term spies and agents into place centuries ahead and the children still maintaining their loyalty is beyond me). I don;t see the RF using force if it has too, until it is the strongest force in the area.

Zakharra wrote:I think you're also over optimistic in there being little warlord/conqueror activity in the Core. I think there will be more than most people think. There are some Core systems that don't really like other Core systems, or Shell systems.

I don't deny that there will be warlords and conquistadors in the Core Worlds, I just think their activities will be limited and short-term.

I also doubt that the Harrington Doctrine will be no more concerned about some fairly large Successor States than they are about the Andermani Empire and Maya Sector, or were about the Silesian Confederacy; as long as there are diplomatic relations and no overt hostility, there will be no reasons for military intervention.

That's the thing then, what if some of those states do grow large and are hostile to Manticore? Maybe not at the point of starting a war, but the new nations might not want to be Manticore's friend, diplomatically or economically (remember allowing all of those Manty merchantmen in means those states will be under the same basic threat if those hulls are removed, not to mention I see a lot of people realizing that merchants see and know a LOT of things about star systems) or want to kowtow to Manticore's military strength. I think every successor state it going to be pushing its R&D as hard as it can to equalize the military imbalance as soon as possible.

The Andermani Empire and Maya Sector, or the Silesian Confederacy aren't military threats. The Andermani Empire is a somewhat touchy ally, but they are on prickly good terms with Manticore. Not to mention the Manties did share they tech with the Empire, and the Empire knew it was eventually on the conquest list of the PRH. Half of the Silesian Confederacy is a part of the SEM now and the Maya Sector is on good terms (albeit secretive for now) with Manticore. Manticore has actively helped those places, especially in calming the chaos in Silesia. It is to note though, that Manticore didn't cause or start any problems in those areas either so they wouldn't be seen as an aggressor or responsible for the collapse of any governmental systems there.

In the Solarian League, the confrontation with Manticore/MA/GA will be seen as the main reason the SL fell. You seem to be thinking that most if not all of the successor states will be friendly/neutral and have economic/diplomatic ties with Manticore/GA.

Some of the warlords are going to be successful. I can't see all of them failing.

Two provisos to the non-expansionist nature of the GA and SEM goals:
1) I think that Beowulf would probably federate with any of her daughter colonies (Yes, including Mesa) that wanted to petition, and would be willing to meet her standards for a moderate-sized, functional, multi-system federation. Maybe a few other systems as well.
2) I think Elizabeth and her "20+ years of war" ministers are hard nosed enough that they will either annex or "encourage special relationships" with any WH host systems that tie closely into the MWHJ network. (This will be moderated of course by how agitated it is making the Empire.) They will also extend the Matsuko/Khumalo/Henke doctrine and listen with consideration to the petitions of any Verge/Shell systems that have been "Firebranded".

All things considered, I think when the dust clears, Beowulf might find itself the leading light of a coalition of 12-20 systems, but predominately Core Worlds. The SEM could easily end up extending to ~100 members, annexed uninhabited terminus systems, and partnered territories/protectorates.

Though not (yet) part of the GA, I see the Erewhon/Maya/Torch confederation eventually wrapping in the Phoenix Cluster, and possibly Joshua (and the Judean League if Joshua is a component of that entity.)

Grayson - I think it might find itself the leading light of a continuing association of the former minor members of the MA, who might be just a little bit anxious over the spread of the Manticore mantle, and looking for an alternate big brother.

Marsh - hmm. In the future, there will be astro-political pressure for them to form an even tighter bond with Manticore. They might petition eventually, and if so, Manticore will accept, despite the potential friction with the Empire. That situation is going to be tricky in future, kind of Gibraltar-ish.

dreamrider

Zakharra wrote:You're ignoring that one of the points of the Harrington Doctrine IS the use of military force if the GA/Manticore deems it necessary.

The Harrington Doctrine is an alternative to military force.

The GA will use military force against those systems that are perceived as a THREAT, not just systems that don't like them. The Silesian Confederacy as a whole or its individual parts did not like Manticore, but they were never a threat. In most cases, I would expect military force to be used to honor a mutual defense agreement -- and that mostly a threat of force to remind an aggressor that there is a mutual defense treaty and the GA will honor it.

Zakharra wrote: There are going to be a fair number of systems that do not want to be Manticore's friend. Why can't you see that?

Not liking Manticore is NOT the same as being a threat to Manticore.

It doesn't matter if successor states like Manticore or the GA, as long as they don't become a threat. If a Successor State doesn't want trade and mutual defense treaties with Manticore or the GA, they are welcome to make treaties with some other polity or form their own treaty organizations. As long as they don't become a threat, as indicated by diplomatic and intelligence sources, they can go their own way without let or hindrance -- As New Tuscany was not turned into a cue-ball over their complicity in Manpower conspiracies against Manticore.

Zakharra wrote:Human nature being what it is, most people of the SL will believe that it's the GA/Manticore's fault the SL collapsed.

The presence of SLN fleets and task forces in Manticoran space isn't "proof" of who attacked whom? Manticore is inside the information loop of the Solarian League, and if the Core Worlds won't listen to Manticore, perhaps they'll listen to Beowulf's account of bureaucratic over-reach by the Mandarins.

If your view comes to pass, then the Harrington Doctrine will have failed.

Zakharra wrote:Off hand, I'd say the RF's. The Ga is going to be seen as the instigator and force that made the SL stumble and collapse.

If that is true, then the Harrington Doctrine will have failed and Manticore is doomed -- there won't be much point in more than one more book.

Zakharra wrote:I think the RF strategy is going to be much more subtle than people give credit for. As each system joins, they will probably use subtle means to get their people into the leadership positions. ... I don;t see the RF using force if it has too, until it is the strongest force in the area.

I agree that the RF strategy isn't going to be at all obvious. I do believe that the Harrington Doctrine is going to slow their growth and mute their message far more effectively than you might think.

The RF -- according to the plan laid out by Albrecht Detweiler -- is going to be relying on the chaos, panic, and need for trade and defense. The GA is going be working to minimize the chaos and offer the same benefits without demanding the loss of autonomy.

Zakharra wrote:That's the thing then, what if some of those states do grow large and are hostile to Manticore?

If a polity grows large enough to threaten the GA, the Harrington Doctrine will have failed. The idea is to remove the factors that drive polities to join into larger polities.

Zakharra wrote: The Andermani Empire and Maya Sector, or the Silesian Confederacy aren't military threats. The Andermani Empire is a somewhat touchy ally, but they are on prickly good terms with Manticore. Not to mention the Manties did share their tech with the Empire, and the Empire knew it was eventually on the conquest list of the PRH.

What make you think Manticore won't share military technology with systems it signs mutual defense treaties with? It did with Grayson, Alizon, Erewhon, Torch, Marsh, Zanzibar, the Andermani, Beowulf, et al. Why should it stiff former SL members it wants to make friends with?

The Andermani were a threat in Honor Among Enemies but Manticore brought them in as Allies and shared Appollo with them -- despite a few commanders assigned to Eighth Fleet who would rather be shooting at Manties than at Havenites.

Zakharra wrote:Half of the Silesian Confederacy is a part of the SEM now and the Maya Sector is on good terms (albeit secretive for now) with Manticore. Manticore has actively helped those places, especially in calming the chaos in Silesia. It is to note though, that Manticore didn't cause or start any problems in those areas either so they wouldn't be seen as an aggressor or responsible for the collapse of any governmental systems there.

Nitpick: The Silesian systems are protectorates of the SEM, not members.

Fortunately, Manticore isn't the only member of the Grand Alliance. Beowulf is, or soon will be, a member and the first of many Core Worlds to secede. Haven is seen as an opponent of Manticore's which will give some weight to their testimony as to who started the war. Grayson has separate intelligence assets around human settled space, although not as many as Haven, Manticore, and the Andermani.

Where there may be some prejudice against Manticore, there won't be against Haven, Grayson or the Andermani -- the latter not being involved in the war at all.

Zakharra wrote: In the Solarian League, the confrontation with Manticore/MA/GA will be seen as the main reason the SL fell. You seem to be thinking that most if not all of the successor states will be friendly/neutral and have economic/diplomatic ties with Manticore/GA.

Most probably are going to have economic and diplomatic relations with all of the GA members as a group or singly. What I expect is that those who don't make peace with Manticore, at least on the surface, are going to suffer economic woes far longer than those who swallow their pride and declare neutrality.

Zakharra wrote: Some of the warlords are going to be successful. I can't see all of them failing.

I'm certain there will be successful warlords; probably those who are smart enough to stop when they run up against a system with a mutual defense treaty with the GA, RF, or Andermani Empire.

The genesis of a Successor State isn't going to matter a great deal in the long-term shape of the ex-SL dominion. What is going to matter is whether the warlords and conquistadors know when to stop and rule the empires they have built out of the chaos. If they don't stop, sooner or later they're going to run into a mutual defense treaty with somebody bigger and badder than they are -- which is NOT necessarily going to be Manticore or the GA,

dreamrider wrote:Two provisos to the non-expansionist nature of the GA and SEM goals:
1) I think that Beowulf would probably federate with any of her daughter colonies (Yes, including Mesa) that wanted to petition, and would be willing to meet her standards for a moderate-sized, functional, multi-system federation. Maybe a few other systems as well.

Beowulf has already made noises about sounding out its neighbors. I doubt Mesa will be included for the same reasons it won't be adopted by Torch -- it's too far away.

dreamrider wrote:2) I think Elizabeth and her "20+ years of war" ministers are hard nosed enough that they will either annex or "encourage special relationships" with any WH host systems that tie closely into the MWHJ network. (This will be moderated of course by how agitated it is making the Empire.)

Actually, I can't see Manticore antagonizing everyone by hogging the WH Network. I can see mutual defense treaties with the owners to block warlords and conquistadors from taking control.

dreamrider wrote:They will also extend the Matsuko/Khumalo/Henke doctrine and listen with consideration to the petitions of any Verge/Shell systems that have been "Firebranded".

I think that doctrine will be followed, but quickly become redundant as Frontier Fleet units start commerce raiding and get the Madras Sector treatment. There's not going to be a lot of OFS assets available to reinforce transstellars and despots against Liberation movements.


Marsh might become the core of a new confederacy/empire as former Silesian systems get their act together enough for honest plebiscites that reject joining the SEM. Marsh is closer and less threatening than the Andermani or SEM. It just might pick off a fair-sized empire of its own.

Zakharra wrote:Manticore is going to make sure NONE of the successor states are ever a threat to it. Diplomacy and economic ties won't always work. And the GA and RF are going to get into a shooting war sooner or later, so there goes the Harrington Doctrine by your reasoning, yes?

EVERY SINGLE core world can easily pose a threat to Manticore, simply by investing a comparable percent of the GSP in the military. Any average core world could easily build a Grayson scale navy. 10 average core worlds can build a military that would be larger than the RMN, the GSN and the IAN, combined. This would not be trivial undertaking and would be pretty painful in terms of taxes etc, but they could do it if they decided they needed to without bankrupting themselves.

Have they done that today? No. They don't see the need. However they are capable of doing this within a very short time period.

So yeah, given that there are up to 1000+ core worlds, your approach is probably not going to be what they actually do.

Weird Harold wrote:

dreamrider wrote:2) I think Elizabeth and her "20+ years of war" ministers are hard nosed enough that they will either annex or "encourage special relationships" with any WH host systems that tie closely into the MWHJ network. (This will be moderated of course by how agitated it is making the Empire.)

Actually, I can't see Manticore antagonizing everyone by hogging the WH Network. I can see mutual defense treaties with the owners to block warlords and conquistadors from taking control.

That's more or less what I said, although I also think that there will be annexations of at least some termini that are not directly associated with inhabited systems, and a spectrum of special relationships that will range from protectorates being encouraged to meet standards & petition for incorporation to mutual defense treaties with an RMN station that will never be anything more.

All such special relationships will be weighed by the Foreign Office and the Crown with regard to how they will affect other diplomatic and mercantile prospects. I don't expect that the expansion of permanent and virtual WH control will be anything near the extent of Laocoon, but I think there will be some. Think of the current status' of the Gregor, Matapan, and Lynx termini (proper) of the MWHJ, and the former status of Basilisk, and the current association with the Idaho system government as the range of working models, each of which still amounts to full-time virtual control.

dreamrider