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Long term consequences of the League's collapse

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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Vince   » Tue Jul 08, 2014 11:58 am

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SWM wrote:I believe you are grossly overestimating the power of the central League government. David has explicitly stated that the League government has very little effect on the daily activities of the populations of the member systems. General Tsang's opinion obviously was not shared by the member system which he was trying to bully, and that will be true throughout the League member systems.

Case Buccaneer was aimed at systems not in the League. And the League does not actually control any wormholes--that is held by individual systems.

Quibbles: Like Honor, the correct personal pronoun to refer to (not so Invincible) SLN Admiral Tsang is she.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by dreamrider   » Tue Jul 08, 2014 12:06 pm

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SWM wrote:Case Buccaneer was aimed at systems not in the League. And the League does not actually control any wormholes--that is held by individual systems.


Actually, we don't really know this from textev. I suspect it is a mixed bag, considering that all wormholes are outside the conventional limits of territoriality. Extrapolating from the standards of territoriality which David has described for star systems, recognized control of a terminus by the nearest inhabited system would depend very much on some sort of annexation, and on at least a nominal demonstrated ability to exert control (patrol with warships, in essence) a reasonable radius around the terminus.

We do know that there are cases where OFS has virtual control of a terminus.

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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Zakharra   » Tue Jul 08, 2014 12:38 pm

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SWM wrote:
Zakharra wrote:[i
No, it is not the collapse of the federal government. The Solarian League is not comparable to the federal government of the United States, or any other organization currently on Earth. 99% of all governance in the Solarian League takes place on the system level, not the League level. The League has almost no power over individual member governments. While it looks monumental, in reality it is just a loose affiliation. The Solarian League as a government actually has almost no effect on the economies of individual members. If you want to compare it to something, compare it to the collapse of a slightly stronger United Nations which has its own military but not much more power to govern its members.[/i]


No. It is the collapse of the federal government. The entire edifice is starting to totter and it's going to fall and shatter. The federal government controls the ministries, which ARE the bureaucracies, which control regulations, the SLN FF/BF, regulate the money. Interstellar commerce is under federal control, not local system control. They do the licensing. In short, the federal government controls a hell of a lot. It's not as decentralized as you say. Certainly not only 1% control. No government can maintain control with only 1%. It seems like a fairly centralized government, with power concentrated in the ministries rather than the Assembly of Delegates.

Don't foreget that Admiral Tsang was of the opinion that Federal control did supersede local control, and from what I've seen in the books, that is by no means an isolated viewpoint. It seems to be very common in fact, that the federal government does have a lot of control and ways they can control systems, through use of economic warfare, access to warp termini, subtle and not so subtle pressure brought on by the FF and BF (Case Buccaneer for example).

I believe you are grossly overestimating the power of the central League government. David has explicitly stated that the League government has very little effect on the daily activities of the populations of the member systems. General Tsang's opinion obviously was not shared by the member system which he was trying to bully, and that will be true throughout the League member systems.

Case Buccaneer was aimed at systems not in the League. And the League does not actually control any wormholes--that is held by individual systems.



I agree that the federal government doesn't have a direct effect on the day to day lives of most of the people in the systems, but they -do- control the interstellar government and interstellar commerce, the ministries do the licensing, negotiate trade agreements, make the rules and regulations and the laws governing it. So there is a lot of citizens that are directly impacted and in the long run, all of them are impacted if interstellar trade suffers. That's not an insignificant amount of control.

The books mention that there is big concern in the financial and trade ministries at the chasm that is looming because of the slowed trade. They also mention that if it goes on long enough, and it will, even they say any disruption, even if the League had taken Manticore, would have caused problems. Now that they have failed, it's inevitable that the SL's economy is going to be hurting badly. This is causing member systems economies to suffer sine they all depend upon interstellar trade to prosper. No trade, no prosperity.

Beowulf is one of the few systems at the time that believes in the SL constitution and upheld it. The system population a lot more inclined to be politically active and have trustworthy leaders. They aren't complacent, unlike many other worlds. I'm sure their political, military and economic contacts with Manticore has helped too. I think that almost every other system would have acquiesced to Admiral Tsang's demands rather than stand up to her. Remember her line; 'But the Constitution was what accepted practice made it, not some dead letter document which hadn't functioned properly on over six hundred T-years!' I don;t think that's a belief limited to just a few people.

Admiral Tsang and Beowulf clearly disagreed on what the powers of the federal government were and both sides thought they were right. This means to me that the attitude of Tsang are not isolated but are likely fairly common. Re,member in the Assembly debate, there was a lot of talk of how Beowulf had committed treason by refusing to cooperate and threatening to fire upon TF 11.6 if the SLN force used armed force to make the Beowulf/Solarian citizens* operating the Terminus controls to pass TF 11.6 through.

* one of the basis of the argument Beowulf had was that the Beowulf personnel there also Solarian citizens, not just Beowulf, but Solarian.


Case Buccaneer or a version of it could be easily turned on recalcitrant SL systems if they look to be giving the federal government trouble. Look at what they are going to try to do to Beowulf for daring to try and secede from the SL even though that is in the constitution? The League does control the licensing of the companies that run the wormholes. The Shingaine Convention is Solarian law and guarantees free access through the warp termini the League controls and the fees for using them is one of the ways the ministries get funding. Transit fees and such are also one of the revenue sources for the ministries and why the OFS was allowed to be set up the way it is. Most warp termini are outside of the legally recognized territory of the star systems (the reason why the Mandarins think they can get away with taking Beowulf. If they make it clear they are punishing the system/government, the Manties will stand by and let it happen since the wormhole isn't Beowulf property or in Beowulf territory, legally.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Zakharra   » Tue Jul 08, 2014 12:40 pm

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dreamrider wrote:
SWM wrote:Case Buccaneer was aimed at systems not in the League. And the League does not actually control any wormholes--that is held by individual systems.


Actually, we don't really know this from textev. I suspect it is a mixed bag, considering that all wormholes are outside the conventional limits of territoriality. Extrapolating from the standards of territoriality which David has described for star systems, recognized control of a terminus by the nearest inhabited system would depend very much on some sort of annexation, and on at least a nominal demonstrated ability to exert control (patrol with warships, in essence) a reasonable radius around the terminus.

We do know that there are cases where OFS has virtual control of a terminus.

dreamrider



Good points. Those fees are critical to the ministries financial revenue and personal retirement funds.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by SWM   » Tue Jul 08, 2014 1:11 pm

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Zhakarra, I've already agreed several times that the economies of the member systems will be badly affected. What we disagree on is how badly. Sure, the Solarian League has certain regulatory offices. But in general, the disappearance of those offices will not adversely affect the economies of the member systems. In some cases, it would actually help the local economies (at least in the short term), because the local government can eliminate or start collecting some of the fees that previously went to the League.

The League actually appears very little to regulate trade, except to collect fees. That's because any single system can veto any law, so any laws that exist are ones that every member agreed to.

We will have to agree to disagree, and wait to see.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by JohnRoth   » Tue Jul 08, 2014 1:23 pm

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There will be a gazillion predictions by the most respected pundits.

Going on strict historical precedent, they'll all be wrong.

Someone nobody ever heard of will crow "I was right!"

On further investigation, there will be good reasons nobody ever heard of him before.

A lot of academics will make their reputation writing "The Decline and Fall of the [s]Roman Empire[/s] Solarian League."
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by SWM   » Tue Jul 08, 2014 1:28 pm

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JohnRoth wrote:There will be a gazillion predictions by the most respected pundits.

Going on strict historical precedent, they'll all be wrong.

Someone nobody ever heard of will crow "I was right!"

On further investigation, there will be good reasons nobody ever heard of him before.

A lot of academics will make their reputation writing "The Decline and Fall of the [s]Roman Empire[/s] Solarian League."

And there's a prediction I can agree with! :lol:
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by hanuman   » Tue Jul 08, 2014 3:20 pm

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Zakharra wrote:Something to consider here when comparing the SL economy to the Great Depression or anything else, the SL is going to shatter. The government is going to cease functioning, entire groups of systems will be breaking away. It's going to literally be a total collapse of the federal government, how is that not going to result in the near total collapse of the economy as well?


Once again, my analogy isn't exactly perfect, but look at the consequences of the Great Depression in Europe. The severity thereof was one of the immediate causes for the rise of the Nazis and the disintegration of the continental system that was established right after the First World War.
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Re: Honorverse series, the future..?
Post by kzt   » Tue Jul 08, 2014 3:22 pm

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SWM wrote:The League actually appears very little to regulate trade, except to collect fees. That's because any single system can veto any law, so any laws that exist are ones that every member agreed to.

When was the last time the US Senate voted on a new EPA regulation? That doesn't mean they don't happen and don't carry absurd legal penalties.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by hanuman   » Tue Jul 08, 2014 3:43 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:In some areas -- mostly in the Shell and Protectorates -- You're probably closer than I am. But then, I'm not talking about Shell, Protectorate and Verge systems, I'm talking about the majority of Core systems.

Those systems may not even notice there's a war on until the annual shipment of Aldebran Frog Whiskers doesn't show up at the Six Star restaurants. :roll:

The further from Sol a system is, the greater the chance for chaos and economic ruin. The more chance of a SLN task force commander setting up as a warlord, or an OFS sector governor turning emperor for life. Revolts against transstellars and/or OFS are more likely at the edges of the League than they are in the Core Worlds where transstellars don't own planets outright and OFS doesn't operate.


Harold, all I'll say is that human nature is human nature. The effects of the League's disintegration will be worse in the Shell, Protectorates and Verge, yes. I agree with you on that point.

We'll see a lot of economic suffering, because remember, the transstellars will be withdrawing their people or will be expelled. That means that especially in the Verge and the Protectorates, the people with the skills to manage the economy will no longer be there. The technicians will be gone. The locals will for the most part be undereducated, without skills and habituated to following orders, not take the initiative.

The Protectorates and Verge will erupt in violence, because OFS and the FF will be gone. Human nature will mean that we'll see major civil conflict on many planets, as political leaders and movements fight to impose their particular visions on those planets or to grab power for themselves. We'll see interplanetary and interstellar wars. There will be an upsurge in piracy.

Much of that will happen in the Shell and the Core as well, although I'll grant that although things will probably be bad, the situation won't be quite as bad as in the Protectorates and the Verge.

Economically, there is no doubt that the Core and the Shell will suffer. What is a reasonable estimate of how much of a particular Core system's Gross System Product is directly produced by its interstellar trade? 10%? 20%? Let's be reasonably conservative and estimate 10%. But that is interstellar trade's DIRECT contribution to our hypothetical system's GSP. What about the indirect contribution? How much of that system/world's economic activity is to some extent involved with or dependent upon interstellar trade? When that system/world's interstellar trade is crippled by Lacoon II, even those businesses that are only partially dependent on interstellar trade will experience reduced turnover, meaning that ultimately the failure of those businesses directly involved in interstellar trade will send shockwaves through the entire planetary/system economy.

I think you are far too optimistic about the economic consequences of the League's collapse for the Core worlds.
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