Long term consequences of the League's collapse

Zakharra wrote:The currency they use is the Solarian dollar (assuming that's what it's called and that it's what's backed by the government (more or less even if the federal government isn't printing its own money)). Why would those systems still use SL currency when there is no SL anymore? The money will be worthless (like USC money is worthless as money). It seems like people don't think the currency isn't going to get devalued in the collapse of the federal government. Why would the SL currency survive the fall of the SL itself?

Zakharra wrote:It seems to be an assumption that those same worlds would welcome Manticore's ships back (and the monopoly those ships held on the economy). A smart system/polity would limit the number of Manty ships that could haul its goods so to not be held by the balls (forgive the terminology) like the SL was.

Zakharra wrote:It seems like the biggest danger militarily in the Core will be the Core systems themselves, and those who reject or adhere to the federal system. Those systems with fleets (the more powerful SDFs and assuming the BF joins in on either side) will have a decided advantage, and it's been stated that a good number of the Core systems don't like other Core systems.

Zakharra wrote: I'm just saying that while some people think the damage will be more or less minimal, it's far more likely to be messy as hell all around for all in the dying SL.

Zakharra wrote:Something to consider here when comparing the SL economy to the Great Depression or anything else, the SL is going to shatter. The government is going to cease functioning, entire groups of systems will be breaking away. It's going to literally be a total collapse of the federal government, how is that not going to result in the near total collapse of the economy as well?

99.999999999999% or so of Honorverse "money" is digital balances. Changing a balance from SL Credits to Manticoran Dollars is about as difficult as changing my digital bathroom scale from pounds to kilograms or converting Degrees Fahrenheit to degrees Celsius on my calculator. I don't recall any textev of a Solarian equivalent of the US Federal Reserve; the Solarian Credit is a "free market currency" as far as I can tell.

The Solarian League has no more ability to "print money" than the UN does.

SWM wrote:

Zakharra wrote:Something to consider here when comparing the SL economy to the Great Depression or anything else, the SL is going to shatter. The government is going to cease functioning, entire groups of systems will be breaking away. It's going to literally be a total collapse of the federal government, how is that not going to result in the near total collapse of the economy as well?

No, it is not the collapse of the federal government. The Solarian League is not comparable to the federal government of the United States, or any other organization currently on Earth. 99% of all governance in the Solarian League takes place on the system level, not the League level. The League has almost no power over individual member governments. While it looks monumental, in reality it is just a loose affiliation. The Solarian League as a government actually has almost no effect on the economies of individual members. If you want to compare it to something, compare it to the collapse of a slightly stronger United Nations which has its own military but not much more power to govern its members.

n7axw wrote:

SWM wrote:No, it is not the collapse of the federal government. The Solarian League is not comparable to the federal government of the United States, or any other organization currently on Earth. 99% of all governance in the Solarian League takes place on the system level, not the League level. The League has almost no power over individual member governments. While it looks monumental, in reality it is just a loose affiliation. The Solarian League as a government actually has almost no effect on the economies of individual members. If you want to compare it to something, compare it to the collapse of a slightly stronger United Nations which has its own military but not much more power to govern its members.

I think there to it than this. It's true as you say that SLN has no direct internal control over its members. But it was established for self protection and to promote trade. Anything that it does that either helps or hinders those areas is going to impact the internal economies of its members pretty dramatically. For example the League's inability to counter Lacoon 2 will hit the export markets of core systems and cause severe economic contraction and distress more comparable to great depression than the opec embargo in early 70s.

Don

SWM wrote:Absolutely true. The member system economies will be hurt, which I have already said. But you will notice that even during the Great Depression, the government was able to fund massive new projects.

Weird Harold wrote:

Zakharra wrote:The currency they use is the Solarian dollar (assuming that's what it's called and that it's what's backed by the government (more or less even if the federal government isn't printing its own money)). Why would those systems still use SL currency when there is no SL anymore? The money will be worthless (like USC money is worthless as money). It seems like people don't think the currency isn't going to get devalued in the collapse of the federal government. Why would the SL currency survive the fall of the SL itself?

99.999999999999% or so of Honorverse "money" is digital balances. Changing a balance from SL Credits to Manticoran Dollars is about as difficult as changing my digital bathroom scale from pounds to kilograms or converting Degrees Fahrenheit to degrees Celsius on my calculator. I don't recall any textev of a Solarian equivalent of the US Federal Reserve; the Solarian Credit is a "free market currency" as far as I can tell.

The Solarian League has no more ability to "print money" than the UN does.

Zakharra wrote:It seems to be an assumption that those same worlds would welcome Manticore's ships back (and the monopoly those ships held on the economy). A smart system/polity would limit the number of Manty ships that could haul its goods so to not be held by the balls (forgive the terminology) like the SL was.

You are advocating a form of Protectionism -- generally a tactic that does more harm than good.

It is quite possible that various polities will subsidize the building of freighters and formation of freight companies. That isn't going to change the MMM advantage in Wormhole access and fees.

Systems might not "welcome" the MMM back to carry their trade, but economics will ccause them to grit their teeth and smile rather than cede market share to others without such principled stands against MMM dominance.

Zakharra wrote:It seems like the biggest danger militarily in the Core will be the Core systems themselves, and those who reject or adhere to the federal system. Those systems with fleets (the more powerful SDFs and assuming the BF joins in on either side) will have a decided advantage, and it's been stated that a good number of the Core systems don't like other Core systems.

In the short-term, the relative size and capability of SDFs will be relevant. In the realm of this thread -- "Long term consequences of the League's collapse" -- the relevant factor will be mutual defense treaties with the GA, RF, AE, or other post-collapse polity and an "Armed Peace." All of the immediate Chaos and economic upset should be over with fairly quickly if the Renaissance Factor and "Harrington Doctrine" are carried out as planned.

Zakharra wrote: I'm just saying that while some people think the damage will be more or less minimal, it's far more likely to be messy as hell all around for all in the dying SL.

In the short-term, you may well be correct. It is going to be messy and in some cases tragic, but in the long-term the damage will have pretty much disappeared.

SWM wrote:

Zakharra wrote:Something to consider here when comparing the SL economy to the Great Depression or anything else, the SL is going to shatter. The government is going to cease functioning, entire groups of systems will be breaking away. It's going to literally be a total collapse of the federal government, how is that not going to result in the near total collapse of the economy as well?

No, it is not the collapse of the federal government. The Solarian League is not comparable to the federal government of the United States, or any other organization currently on Earth. 99% of all governance in the Solarian League takes place on the system level, not the League level. The League has almost no power over individual member governments. While it looks monumental, in reality it is just a loose affiliation. The Solarian League as a government actually has almost no effect on the economies of individual members. If you want to compare it to something, compare it to the collapse of a slightly stronger United Nations which has its own military but not much more power to govern its members.

drothgery wrote:

SWM wrote:Absolutely true. The member system economies will be hurt, which I have already said. But you will notice that even during the Great Depression, the government was able to fund massive new projects.

But the League's direct taxation power is extremely limited, and it seems clear that large-scale deficit spending is difficult if not impossible for the League (or the Mandarins would be far less worried about the short-term financial costs of Lacoon; they'd just borrow/print the money they need. If they win, they'll be able to pay back the loans eventually, and if they don't, then they'll have no need to pay them back because the League government won't exist anymore.).

Zakharra wrote:

SWM wrote:No, it is not the collapse of the federal government. The Solarian League is not comparable to the federal government of the United States, or any other organization currently on Earth. 99% of all governance in the Solarian League takes place on the system level, not the League level. The League has almost no power over individual member governments. While it looks monumental, in reality it is just a loose affiliation. The Solarian League as a government actually has almost no effect on the economies of individual members. If you want to compare it to something, compare it to the collapse of a slightly stronger United Nations which has its own military but not much more power to govern its members.

No. It is the collapse of the federal government. The entire edifice is starting to totter and it's going to fall and shatter. The federal government controls the ministries, which ARE the bureaucracies, which control regulations, the SLN FF/BF, regulate the money. Interstellar commerce is under federal control, not local system control. They do the licensing. In short, the federal government controls a hell of a lot. It's not as decentralized as you say. Certainly not only 1% control. No government can maintain control with only 1%. It seems like a fairly centralized government, with power concentrated in the ministries rather than the Assembly of Delegates.

Don't foreget that Admiral Tsang was of the opinion that Federal control did supersede local control, and from what I've seen in the books, that is by no means an isolated viewpoint. It seems to be very common in fact, that the federal government does have a lot of control and ways they can control systems, through use of economic warfare, access to warp termini, subtle and not so subtle pressure brought on by the FF and BF (Case Buccaneer for example).