Long term consequences of the League's collapse

Weird Harold wrote:

Zakharra wrote: No. The economy is going to suffer a LOT. 40-45% of all shipping is gone, every single wormhole junction has been seized by the GA/Manticore, the SL is having to gear up for a war that they are way behind in preparing to fight. Especially since they need to literally build a fleet to fight it from the ground up.

There are likely very very few SL systems that don't depend upon interstellar trade to push their economies along.

I don't think anyone is claiming that systems aren't going to suffer, because they ARE going to suffer. I just don't think that the suffering is going to rise to the level of "Chaos."

Especially since the "Harrington Doctrine" specifies bilateral trade treaties with any system willing to secede and declare neutrality. The MMM can be back in just about any system to restore trade in mere months, at most, once a system secedes from the SL.

That's assuming the system will want to trade with them in the first place. Many undoubtedly will, but the problem becomes several ones. First, why would they want to trade with the polity that helped wreck the SL in the first place. Many of them will likely blame Manticore for ruining the SL in the first place. Second I am guessing a fair number of systems will not want to be at the mercy of another polity's merchant marine again, so they might only allow in their own ships, or restrict GA/Manticore ships. Third, what will they buy anything with? Most of the Core and Shell systems likely only used the SL currency and that will now be worthless. That means a lot of systems will be more or less broke.

And lastly, you keep forgetting or ignoring, the MAlign are stirring the pot a lot so there IS Chaos everywhere. The more the former SL systems/sectors fight, the easier it is for the RF to appear as the savior and a reborn Solarian League. If the various systems and sectors aren't at war or having internal struggles, it will be much harder for the RF to coerce them into joining the RF. That was part of the plan I believe, to have as many systems as possible voluntarily joining the RF rather than open conquest at first. The MAlign wants everything to be as chaotic as possible since that means less competitors for them to worry about.

dreamrider wrote:Hmmm.
There are several Core worlds mentioned in the Star Kingdom series which are:
1) Old, established, well-rounded societies, and
2) Have universities (research establishments) that are prominent enough for galactic reputation

We should keep a look-out to see if we hear from any of them again.

Maybe I'll start a Core Worlds note/list.

dreamrider

I think it would be wonderful to have a list of core worlds along with a synopsis on date estabished, brief history, culural distinctiveness and so on. I have read pretty much all the books and don't remember any textev about this unless it's in a pearl somewhere.

Don

Weird Harold wrote:

Zakharra wrote: No. The economy is going to suffer a LOT. 40-45% of all shipping is gone, every single wormhole junction has been seized by the GA/Manticore, the SL is having to gear up for a war that they are way behind in preparing to fight. Especially since they need to literally build a fleet to fight it from the ground up.

There are likely very very few SL systems that don't depend upon interstellar trade to push their economies along.

I don't think anyone is claiming that systems aren't going to suffer, because they ARE going to suffer. I just don't think that the suffering is going to rise to the level of "Chaos."

Especially since the "Harrington Doctrine" specifies bilateral trade treaties with any system willing to secede and declare neutrality. The MMM can be back in just about any system to restore trade in mere months, at most, once a system secedes from the SL.

Harold, the point I'm trying to make is that, when the full impact of Lacoon II hits the League, the economic distress it causes will be severe enough that, once the League disbands or disintegrates, its successor states will not have the financial and other resources to invest in the kind of military R&D, infrastructure and industries that they'll need to acquire GA-level military hardware.

It doesn't really matter exactly how bad that economic distress will be, but I think Zakharra and I have argued convincingly enough that it will be bad enough that we'll see an alarming contraction of economic activity throughout the former League's territory. I really do think those successor states' governments will hesitate to invest the vast sums of money needed to acquire a military capacity they won't be needing in order to deal with any conceivable immediate threat.

Yes, most governments will invest at least some money in acquire naval forces of their own, but I suspect that they'll opt for ships and other military hardware that will be good enough to deal with any immediate threats, which means current-generation Solarian military technology (because that is what their neighbours will have).

IF they survive and once economic conditions improve, then I can see those with more robust economies actually invest more resources in order to acquire more advanced military technology.

Zakharra wrote:First, why would they want to trade with the polity that helped wreck the SL in the first place.

Greed.

Nobody is going to force them to trade with the GA, but not trading with the GA is going to extend the distress and chaos in systems that don't establish new trade treaties.

As for GA level tech, I suspect Erewhon, the Andermani, Renaissance Factor, and GA will all be more than willing to provide export versions of their tech along with mutual defense treaties. Former SL systems will have a choice of trade partners and alliances; The SEM/GA being the best option given the SEM control of shipping and wormholes.

hanuman wrote:Harold, the point I'm trying to make is that, when the full impact of Lacoon II hits the League, the economic distress it causes will be severe enough that, once the League disbands or disintegrates, its successor states will not have the financial and other resources to invest in the kind of military R&D, infrastructure and industries that they'll need to acquire GA-level military hardware.

The counter-point is that the economic distress of Core Worlds is not going to be as severe or chaotic as you and the doomsayers contend. The majority of systems aren't going to suffer any more disruption from foreign trade interruption than the US suffered in the 70's from the OPEC Oil Embargo -- gas lines and higher prices just altered living patterns to accommodate the inconvenience, and life went on.

hanuman wrote:... I really do think those successor states' governments will hesitate to invest the vast sums of money needed to acquire a military capacity they won't be needing in order to deal with any conceivable immediate threat.

As I noted above, there will be a huge market for export versions of Haven Sector ships and armament, followed by an indigenous arms industry in those systems that feel more threatened than others.

hanuman wrote:IF they survive and once economic conditions improve, then I can see those with more robust economies actually invest more resources in order to acquire more advanced military technology.

It would serve the GA's strategic interest to provide "military assistance" to treaty partners in the form of "export versions" (on the order of what Erewhon is providing Maya) to minimize the amount of R&D in the successor states. Similar tech from Erewhon, the Andermani, RF, and others would serve the same purpose in suppressing indigenous arms industries in non-treaty partners.

Basing agreements in strategic or obstreperous systems similar to the agreement with Marsh can serve to keep an lid on the situation ans reassure systems they don't need an arms industry of their own.

Weird Harold wrote:

hanuman wrote:Harold, the point I'm trying to make is that, when the full impact of Lacoon II hits the League, the economic distress it causes will be severe enough that, once the League disbands or disintegrates, its successor states will not have the financial and other resources to invest in the kind of military R&D, infrastructure and industries that they'll need to acquire GA-level military hardware.

The counter-point is that the economic distress of Core Worlds is not going to be as severe or chaotic as you and the doomsayers contend. The majority of systems aren't going to suffer any more disruption from foreign trade interruption than the US suffered in the 70's from the OPEC Oil Embargo -- gas lines and higher prices just altered living patterns to accommodate the inconvenience, and life went on.

hanuman wrote:... I really do think those successor states' governments will hesitate to invest the vast sums of money needed to acquire a military capacity they won't be needing in order to deal with any conceivable immediate threat.

As I noted above, there will be a huge market for export versions of Haven Sector ships and armament, followed by an indigenous arms industry in those systems that feel more threatened than others.

hanuman wrote:IF they survive and once economic conditions improve, then I can see those with more robust economies actually invest more resources in order to acquire more advanced military technology.

It would serve the GA's strategic interest to provide "military assistance" to treaty partners in the form of "export versions" (on the order of what Erewhon is providing Maya) to minimize the amount of R&D in the successor states. Similar tech from Erewhon, the Andermani, RF, and others would serve the same purpose in suppressing indigenous arms industries in non-treaty partners.

Basing agreements in strategic or obstreperous systems similar to the agreement with Marsh can serve to keep an lid on the situation ans reassure systems they don't need an arms industry of their own.

I can agree with that last point. I haven't actually considered it.

BUT, if we're going to compare the post-League situation to some event in our history, I'd be much more inclined to compare it with the Great Depression than the Oil Crisis. The conditions that pertained then are far closer to what I suspect will happen in the Honorverse.

Something to consider here when comparing the SL economy to the Great Depression or anything else, the SL is going to shatter. The government is going to cease functioning, entire groups of systems will be breaking away. It's going to literally be a total collapse of the federal government, how is that not going to result in the near total collapse of the economy as well?

hanuman wrote:BUT, if we're going to compare the post-League situation to some event in our history, I'd be much more inclined to compare it with the Great Depression than the Oil Crisis. The conditions that pertained then are far closer to what I suspect will happen in the Honorverse.

In some areas -- mostly in the Shell and Protectorates -- You're probably closer than I am. But then, I'm not talking about Shell, Protectorate and Verge systems, I'm talking about the majority of Core systems.

Those systems may not even notice there's a war on until the annual shipment of Aldebran Frog Whiskers doesn't show up at the Six Star restaurants.

The further from Sol a system is, the greater the chance for chaos and economic ruin. The more chance of a SLN task force commander setting up as a warlord, or an OFS sector governor turning emperor for life. Revolts against transstellars and/or OFS are more likely at the edges of the League than they are in the Core Worlds where transstellars don't own planets outright and OFS doesn't operate.

Zakharra wrote:Something to consider here when comparing the SL economy to the Great Depression or anything else, the SL is going to shatter. The government is going to cease functioning, entire groups of systems will be breaking away. It's going to literally be a total collapse of the federal government, how is that not going to result in the near total collapse of the economy as well?

In the case of the SLN, total collapse just might improve the economy by removing bureaucratic fees and regulations.

The League Bureaucracy and the nominal League Government doesn't really control trade among its autonomous member states; the Core Worlds will be able to carry on trading as they always have provided they can find transportation. Seceding from the League and declaring Neutrality will solve the lack of MMM hulls fairly quickly.

The collapse of the central government will generally stop the OFS rape of Protectorate and Verge economies and free them to trade where they choose. Without OFS support, Transstellars will lose their grip on a lot of Verge and Protectorate systems; not to mention the hit their bottom line will take with the reduction in interstellar transport.

The "Long Term" consequences of the League's collapse aren't as far away for most systems as many people think. For Core and Shell systems that choose to secede and sign trade and mutual defense treaties, the disruption might only last months -- and that only because of travel times. Beowulf will reorganize its trade and treaties in a matter of weeks.

Weird Harold wrote:

Zakharra wrote:Something to consider here when comparing the SL economy to the Great Depression or anything else, the SL is going to shatter. The government is going to cease functioning, entire groups of systems will be breaking away. It's going to literally be a total collapse of the federal government, how is that not going to result in the near total collapse of the economy as well?

In the case of the SLN, total collapse just might improve the economy by removing bureaucratic fees and regulations.

The League Bureaucracy and the nominal League Government doesn't really control trade among its autonomous member states; the Core Worlds will be able to carry on trading as they always have provided they can find transportation. Seceding from the League and declaring Neutrality will solve the lack of MMM hulls fairly quickly.

The collapse of the central government will generally stop the OFS rape of Protectorate and Verge economies and free them to trade where they choose. Without OFS support, Transstellars will lose their grip on a lot of Verge and Protectorate systems; not to mention the hit their bottom line will take with the reduction in interstellar transport.

The "Long Term" consequences of the League's collapse aren't as far away for most systems as many people think. For Core and Shell systems that choose to secede and sign trade and mutual defense treaties, the disruption might only last months -- and that only because of travel times. Beowulf will reorganize its trade and treaties in a matter of weeks.

It's also going to pretty much kill them too. The currency they use is the Solarian dollar (assuming that's what it's called and that it's what's backed by the government (more or less even if the federal government isn't printing its own money)). Why would those systems still use SL currency when there is no SL anymore? The money will be worthless (like USC money is worthless as money). It seems like people don't think the currency isn't going to get devalued in the collapse of the federal government. Why would the SL currency survive the fall of the SL itself?

It seems to be an assumption that those same worlds would welcome Manticore's ships back (and the monopoly those ships held on the economy). A smart system/polity would limit the number of Manty ships that could haul its goods so to not be held by the balls (forgive the terminology) like the SL was.

There's a point that the systems on the Verge and Protectorates will likely be less hurt economically since they aren't tied as deeply into the SL as the Shell and Core systems were, but they will suffer from possible pirates or raiders or OFS governors/FF/BF officers and units looking to carve out their own empires (including the Maya sector). It seems like the biggest danger militarily in the Core will be the Core systems themselves, and those who reject or adhere to the federal system. Those systems with fleets (the more powerful SDFs and assuming the BF joins in on either side) will have a decided advantage, and it's been stated that a good number of the Core systems don't like other Core systems. The implication is that those systems, now that the federal government will die (messily), could very well take the chance to take a shot at their enemies.

I'm just saying that while some people think the damage will be more or less minimal, it's far more likely to be messy as hell all around for all in the dying SL.