Long term consequences of the League's collapse

dreamrider wrote:Hmmm.
There are several Core worlds mentioned in the Star Kingdom series which are:
1) Old, established, well-rounded societies, and
2) Have universities (research establishments) that are prominent enough for galactic reputation

We should keep a look-out to see if we hear from any of them again.

Maybe I'll start a Core Worlds note/list.

dreamrider

I know this is a terrible analogy in some ways, but I suspect that the same underlying principle pertains.

Let's look at the United States today. Her military industrial complex is not distributed equally among the 50 states, right? The same is true for her military R&D establishment. And for military BASES, for that matter. Some states have more bases than others, some have a heavier concentration of military hardware contractors than others, and I would think that even her military R&D projects are more 'clumped' than dispersed.

Now, should the US suddenly disintegrate into her fifty component parts, I think it's fair to argue that only a handful of her former states would have the capacity, resources and manpower to not only support their own military industrial complexes, but also to simultaneously pursue vigorous R&D programmes of their own, by themselves.

I'm not saying the others won't be able to do so, just that they won't have the capacity and resources to do so quite as aggressively as the stronger states with their much more robust economies.

Just as an example, would Wyoming be able to match Texas with regards to industrial capacity and intellectual resources?

I strongly suspect that the same will be true of the League's successor states.

No, freighters and warships are built by different types of shipyards. Well, in theory a shipyard that can build a 8MT SD can also build a 8MT freighter, but it's not a very cost effective use of the facility. A freighter yard doesn't have the ability to work with armor. a CA-DD scale yard isn't designed to work with anything the size of a freighter. So unless you are using freighter based chassis as improvised podlayers (not the worst idea imnsho) there isn't any competition.

hanuman wrote:I know this is a terrible analogy in some ways, but I suspect that the same underlying principle pertains.

Let's look at the United States today. Her military industrial complex is not distributed equally among the 50 states, right? The same is true for her military R&D establishment. And for military BASES, for that matter. Some states have more bases than others, some have a heavier concentration of military hardware contractors than others, and I would think that even her military R&D projects are more 'clumped' than dispersed.

Now, should the US suddenly disintegrate into her fifty component parts, I think it's fair to argue that only a handful of her former states would have the capacity, resources and manpower to not only support their own military industrial complexes, but also to simultaneously pursue vigorous R&D programmes of their own, by themselves.

I'm not saying the others won't be able to do so, just that they won't have the capacity and resources to do so quite as aggressively as the stronger states with their much more robust economies.

Just as an example, would Wyoming be able to match Texas with regards to industrial capacity and intellectual resources?

I strongly suspect that the same will be true of the League's successor states.

They are not states, they are actually nations, with a population of billions and have each been in existence longer then the United States, Germany or Italy have existed as nations. Actually, they have existed as nations longer then the US, Germany and Italy COMBINED have existed as nations.

kzt wrote:No, freighters and warships are built by different types of shipyards. Well, in theory a shipyard that can build a 8MT SD can also build a 8MT freighter, but it's not a very cost effective use of the facility. A freighter yard doesn't have the ability to work with armor. a CA-DD scale yard isn't designed to work with anything the size of a freighter. So unless you are using freighter based chassis as improvised podlayers (not the worst idea imnsho) there isn't any competition.

Systems that don't have much of a SDF, but do have yard capacity to build merchant ships are likely going to use some of those same yards to try and build warships even if they are inefficient. I cannot think that a military ship yard would be that inefficient at building merchant vessels. If CA/DD sized freighters are all you can build, that is likely what they would try to build. Some systems might do their best to expand the capacity of their shipyards to build bigger ships. Podlaying merchant ships are a good possibility. They'd be fragile as hell, but be able to dump and run and let other ships deal with controlling the missiles.

There's going to be a lot of improvisation going on as many of those shipyards are likely experiencing a sudden spate of merchant ships being built, then the need to build and expand a strong SDF is going to make itself a high priority as well. If the yards in orbit are merchant ones, that's what they will use. Learn by doing. It's not like they have much of a choice after all. Even though it will be slow doing as the construction crews learn the new skills to build warships, it is possible to do it. The limiting factor would be time, manpower (no pun intended) and local resources to manufacture the metal and components needed. IE the sensors, nodes, inertial compensators, weapons and such. They'll build what they can and impound/confiscate/buy what they think they need.

Even if the systems do ally with other systems and local SLN BF/FF units, each system is going to need /want their SDF. If only so the rulers of the system can point and say they are Doing Something About It. I think a lot of systems able to build ships are going to end up with shoals of DDs and CAs as the main component of the SDFs.

Zakharra wrote:One thing to not forget is the SL's economy is starting to hurt and will be hammered hard real soon. There's a dearth of merchant ships capable of transporting goods. This means less money to funnel into those R&D programs.

A fair point, but if (IF!) the subject system(s) see it as a matter of their own survival, they will find the money (and a developed planet of 5-20B as in the Core has a lot of internal resources--and as the USA demonstated 1938-1945, nothing cures a depression like a major war...)

Also those systems with shipyards are likely starting to build as many merchant vessels as they can, but it's going to take several years before they come close to replacing the hulls the Manties used to have in SL space. Now many systems are likely thinking, or will be soon thinking about making an SDF if they didn't have one before or adding to their SDFs. Which means some of those merchant ships being built will have to be scrapped and warships built there. Another thought is that many systems might contact the local SLN BF or FF to see if they will protect their system for a price, or conversely some ambitious FF/BF/OFS might claim entire systems as theirs (warlords) and use those as bases to expand their little kingdoms, empires,'republics' and such.

Very interesting, and I am not quite as skeptical as kzt is about being able to use commercial shipyards to build warships--yes, the 'tooling' and fabrication will be different, but if you have the tens of thousands of trained personnel that are used to building ships, getting them to build warships, once you have the blueprints and build plans will be easier than a system with no infrastructure.

But keeping the capability, as you point out, may be the hardest part of the job. Warships vs Merchant ships...what is the best proportion in a suddenly more dangerous universe?

On the matter of the lack of merchant vessels, I can see some Core, Shell and even a few of the more powerful/desperate Protectorate/Verge systems confiscating any merchant ships they can and using those to form a basis of a merchant fleet beholden to their world/system rather than to a transstellar.

I also see this as very likely...especially as the ability of BB/FF to punish the miscreants decreases....

What are the odds of some of the transstellars making deals with the BF/FF/and some worlds to take over systems? The transtellers seemed to be worried about systems nationalizing their assets in systems, but if they can get FF/BF to protect their assets, it seems like something they might try.

We really haven't seen much of the actual transtellar inner circles (except for the shipping magnate in Shadows of Saganami (IIRC) and the family who provided the figurehead president of the SL in ART and some of their ruthlessness in SoF), but I expect them to try. I also expect a lot of the Verge systems, once they realize that FF and the Gerdarime aren't coming, to be decidely...unfriendly toward the transtellar representatives.

And they will be having their own financial problems, too.

Interesting times for the MWW to write about.

I have two points.

First, I am not convinced that all those systems rapidly-breaking Solarian League will be in nearly the financial straits that some people have suggested. Lacoon I and II has been devastating for the Solarian League, but that is because almost all of the League income is from tariffs and fees on interstellar shipping. But I don't believe that the individual member systems of the League are anywhere close to that dependent on interstellar shipping. They will be hurt somewhat by Lacoon I and II, but I don't think they will be crippled. They will have plenty of money to invest in whatever they consider critical.

Second, I don't think the post-collapse period will be nearly as violent as some people have suggested. Yes, the galaxy will be more dangerous, but I don't think that thousands of pirates and rogue states are going to come to the door the instant the League breaks up. Yes, there will be more pirates, including including the occasional SLN or SDF ship that decides to try out eye patches. Yes, there will be rogue states, including some created by admirals who decide to found an empire for their posterity. But it will take some time, and it will not happen everywhere. Some systems will be under pressure right away, but others will find things relatively peaceful, especially if they organize regional agreements.

My basic point is that I don't think things will be quite as bad as has been painted. I agree that most former SL members will be looking toward getting a navy or an agreement with someone else with a navy, but I don't believe that it will be a crisis on every planet (just on some).

kzt wrote:They are not states, they are actually nations, with a population of billions and have each been in existence longer then the United States, Germany or Italy have existed as nations. Actually, they have existed as nations longer then the US, Germany and Italy COMBINED have existed as nations.

Kzt, I DID say it's a bad analogy in some regards.

The point I tried to make, is that the League's military industrial complex, military R&D establishment and military infrastructure will likely be distributed UNEVENLY among its member worlds, which means that, once the League disintegrates, most of its successor states will have to start from nothing in order construct their own naval forces.

To do that, they will have to build not only warships, but also the entire military industrial complex, military infrastructure AND military R&D establishment that will be needed to design, construct and support their new warships.

How much did it cost Manticore to build its navy into the very best in human space? We know that she had to increase Junction transit fees and taxes several times, and that she had to sell war bonds to pay for everything involved in building a navy that could withstand the Peeps. Her financial investment probably ran into the tens of trillions of dollars.

I simply don't know what kind of financial investment it would take to build even a basic fleet from scratch, but I do know that it will be hellishly expensive.

The question is, given the economic impact Lacoon II and the League's collapse will have on the galaxy, could any single planet afford to spend so much money?

SWM wrote:I have two points.

First, I am not convinced that all those systems rapidly-breaking Solarian League will be in nearly the financial straits that some people have suggested. Lacoon I and II has been devastating for the Solarian League, but that is because almost all of the League income is from tariffs and fees on interstellar shipping. But I don't believe that the individual member systems of the League are anywhere close to that dependent on interstellar shipping. They will be hurt somewhat by Lacoon I and II, but I don't think they will be crippled. They will have plenty of money to invest in whatever they consider critical.

Second, I don't think the post-collapse period will be nearly as violent as some people have suggested. Yes, the galaxy will be more dangerous, but I don't think that thousands of pirates and rogue states are going to come to the door the instant the League breaks up. Yes, there will be more pirates, including including the occasional SLN or SDF ship that decides to try out eye patches. Yes, there will be rogue states, including some created by admirals who decide to found an empire for their posterity. But it will take some time, and it will not happen everywhere. Some systems will be under pressure right away, but others will find things relatively peaceful, especially if they organize regional agreements.

My basic point is that I don't think things will be quite as bad as has been painted. I agree that most former SL members will be looking toward getting a navy or an agreement with someone else with a navy, but I don't believe that it will be a crisis on every planet (just on some).

1. I think what you're missing is that the Solarian economy includes the planetary economies since those plants economies require and rely on interstellar transportation of freight in the form of raw material and finished goods and food. The removal of the Manticore merchant marine means a huge hole has been blown in the ability of commerce to flow in the League. The closing of the Manticore WHJ and GA space, and every other junction the GA can get a hold of are more hammer blows to the Solarian economy. Transportation has been cut by 40-45% alone and now even more by the remaining ships having to take longer transit times to cross the League. The local systems can survive, for a short time, on what they have in them, but their survival and prosperity depends on a thriving and abundant merchant marine taking megatons of cargo all over the space.

The SL economy was a tightly woven network of systems and merchant ships transporting raw and finished goods, food, luxuries and people all over. that network is badly disrupted and the further closing of wormhole junctures is further disrupting the remaining hauling capacity. It's also disrupting the flow of money and taxes to and from places.

2. It's been stated that many systems in the SL, mostly in the Verge and Protectorates don't exactly like each other, but it's also been said that there are a fair number of Core worlds that didn't like other Core worlds. Many worlds will likely not suffer too much in the Core, but all of them will be looking to protect themselves. There's likely going to be Core worlds that join together, and other Core worlds suddenly dream of Empire and either have the muscle to try and build them, or will try to build the forces so they can get in the empire building. Then you have the SLN FF and BF fracturing into competing sections, some parts will strike out on their own to build their own empires, others will likely look to try and keep the dream of the SL (as they see it) alive, but remember for the most part the SLN upper leadership is corrupt as hell and they will be looking out for themselves only. And don;t forget the OFS sector leaders in the Verge and Protectorate. They will definitely be looking to carve themselves out their own little empires and expand them. With no one higher ups or official leadership to stop their ambitions, whose to say that they won't do their best to make a legacy for themselves?

And don't forget the MAlign is going to be covertly and deliberately stirring this pot. They -want- the SL to shatter and be battered and weakened. The best way to do that? Make the states fight each other, then the RF can sweep in and be the peacemaker and protector, and the grateful populations will be glade to join the RF and help bring peace to the human settled galaxy under a new and more efficient style of government.

SWM wrote:I have two points.

First, I am not convinced that all those systems rapidly-breaking Solarian League will be in nearly the financial straits that some people have suggested. Lacoon I and II has been devastating for the Solarian League, but that is because almost all of the League income is from tariffs and fees on interstellar shipping. But I don't believe that the individual member systems of the League are anywhere close to that dependent on interstellar shipping. They will be hurt somewhat by Lacoon I and II, but I don't think they will be crippled. They will have plenty of money to invest in whatever they consider critical.

Second, I don't think the post-collapse period will be nearly as violent as some people have suggested. Yes, the galaxy will be more dangerous, but I don't think that thousands of pirates and rogue states are going to come to the door the instant the League breaks up. Yes, there will be more pirates, including including the occasional SLN or SDF ship that decides to try out eye patches. Yes, there will be rogue states, including some created by admirals who decide to found an empire for their posterity. But it will take some time, and it will not happen everywhere. Some systems will be under pressure right away, but others will find things relatively peaceful, especially if they organize regional agreements.

My basic point is that I don't think things will be quite as bad as has been painted. I agree that most former SL members will be looking toward getting a navy or an agreement with someone else with a navy, but I don't believe that it will be a crisis on every planet (just on some).

SWM, let's take just one industry on one planet. Any industry. It is geared towards not only supplying the planet it is based on with its particular goods, but also billions of customers on hundreds of other planets. Now, take away 60% of the hulls that industry depends upon to get its goods to those other planets. Shortly thereafter, close the shortcuts the remaining available hulls use to get its goods to their destination on the cheap. Suddenly, that industry's sitting with an immense surplus in goods it cannot deliver to those other worlds, and even the proportion it can deliver will take five, six, ten times as long to get there. The costs of its goods will skyrocket, but at the same time it has to scale back production. Tens or hundreds of thousands of people lose their jobs. Without income, the newly unemployed can no longer buy OTHER local industries' goods, causing those industries to reduce THEIR workforce numbers. Tax revenues start falling, at the same time that social security expenditures drastically increase. Government bond interest rates and inflation rates start rising rapidly. Pretty soon, you have a financial crisis as the money supply dwindles at an alarming rate. Banks fail and the financial and share markets collapse.

AND THIS WILL BE HAPPENING ON THOUSANDS OF PLANETS, WITH A MULTITUDE OF EXPORT-DEPENDENT BUSINESSES AND INDUSTRIES.

Hutch wrote:Very interesting, and I am not quite as skeptical as kzt is about being able to use commercial shipyards to build warships--yes, the 'tooling' and fabrication will be different, but if you have the tens of thousands of trained personnel that are used to building ships, getting them to build warships, once you have the blueprints and build plans will be easier than a system with no infrastructure.

It takes far more than the ability to build a spaceship hull -- with or without armor -- and blueprints to build a warship. It takes missile launchers, Point Defense clusters, Grazers, Lasers, missiles, counter-missiles, fire-control suites, fire control channels/links, efficient inertial compensators and hyper generators, plus heavy duty drive nodes.

It is necessary to buy or build the necessary components for a warship and schedule everything to be available at the right point of the construction plan.

During WWII, the US could assemble a Liberty Ship (freighter) in less than a week (the record was 23 hours, IIRC) but I don't recall any warship (other than possibly PT boats) coming even close to that kind of construction time.