Long term consequences of the League's collapse

Zakharra wrote: I never really got the impression that the SL as a whole was interested in pushing the boundary of technology. ... In other words, it took outside influence to get Technodyne to do the R&D in the first place, on their own, Technodyne wouldn't have done anything.

By themselves, the SL corporations aren't driven to be the top dog in tech development. ...

There hasn't been any incentive to develop military tech, but the League's civilian sector has always had the same pressure from technophiles for the latest, greatest, newest toys that drives Apple to produce a new iPhone every few weeks. There has to be a constant drive for "more market share" and "new markets" to fuel innovation in the civilian sector.

Zakharra wrote: Yes the stealth tech to assassinate Cromarty was SL tech, and at the time, there was a basis on SL tech being very good, but now that simply isn't the case. It's several generations behind and it's going to be hard for them to catch up. Just getting close to the levels of miniaturization the Manticore Alliance and now the GA uses is going to be a -very- hard task.

I'm not claiming current Solarian tech is anywhere close to RMN or even RHN levels, just that Solarian civilian tech is better than solarian navy tech. The SDFs are better positioned to take advantage of better civilian tech than the SLN is, simply because of smaller numbers to upgrade.

Zakharra wrote:The individual SDFs are expected to work with SLN Battle Fleet and Frontier Fleet, so they couldn't and wouldn't use anything that would clash with SLN tactical policy. Remember in times of war, SDFs can be merged with FF/BF so the systems on all of the ships, FF, BF, SDFs have be compatible across the board. ...

The SDFs only have to be downwardly compatible with the SLN. There's nothing to keep them from having additional capabilities they never use during ORI (Operational Readiness Inspections.) SLN inspections would tend to suffer from NIH syndrome and only care whether the equipment can launch SLN standard missiles and datalink with a SLN ship that can provide "competent leadership."

As long as SLN ships receive the proper signals from SDF ships, the SLN isn't going to care a great deal about who actually built SDF equipment or what bells and whistles the poor deluded SDF wasted their money on.

We have RFC's assertion that some SDFs are better than the SLN, so we have to accept that the SLN doesn't care about anything other than minimal compatibility with SLN command ships.

[quote="hanuman]
Very good point to keep in mind, Namelessfly. Yes, after how many years of war and the consequent intensive R&D push by both Manticore and Haven, the SLN's military hardware is desperately outdated. Of course, that also means that its tactical doctrine is also not up to standard. But at the start of the First Havenite War the SLN wasn't that far behind the RMN wrt military technology, otherwise the Peeps wouldn't have survived as long as they did.[/quote]
No, the Peeps had mass. They greatly outnumbered the RMN.

kzt wrote:[quote="hanuman]
Very good point to keep in mind, Namelessfly. Yes, after how many years of war and the consequent intensive R&D push by both Manticore and Haven, the SLN's military hardware is desperately outdated. Of course, that also means that its tactical doctrine is also not up to standard. But at the start of the First Havenite War the SLN wasn't that far behind the RMN wrt military technology, otherwise the Peeps wouldn't have survived as long as they did.[/quote]
No, the Peeps had mass. They greatly outnumbered the RMN.[/quote]

You misunderstand me. I'm fully aware that the Peeps quantitative superiority and strategic depth would have prevented any rapid Manticoran victory, even without the tech transfers from the League. What I am saying, is that it was because of those initial tech transfers that the First Havenite War lasted so much longer than it would have without them. Without those transfers the Manties would have overcome the Peeps quantitative superiority much much more quickly.

hanuman wrote:You misunderstand me. I'm fully aware that the Peeps quantitative superiority and strategic depth would have prevented any rapid Manticoran victory, even without the tech transfers from the League. What I am saying, is that it was because of those initial tech transfers that the First Havenite War lasted so much longer than it would have without them. Without those transfers the Manties would have overcome the Peeps quantitative superiority much much more quickly.

I'm not so sure the tech transfers prolonged the war that much. The main causes of the PRH losing so much ground early in the war was the purge of their officer corps and the Legislaturalists and being hobbled by StateSec commissioners.

By the time McQueen started putting her policies into effect, Trevor's Star was in Manticoran hands and the RMN had reverted to a defensive stance in order to refit its fleet. We know how that worked out, despite Operation Icarus' successes.

Real good posts by everybody in this discussion. Just a couple of points to add. The first is to note that the basic tech of the more advanced core SL worlds is roughly even with Manticore's. What they haven't been doing is much r&d with military applications, at least on the pressurized level Manticore and Haven have become accustomed to.

The second thing to note is that the SLN had a vested interest in naval tech not advancing lest those thousands of ships in their inventory turn out to be obsolete and need replacement. The falasy in that, of course, is that this is precisely what has happened, with the better tech in the hands of someone with whom you've picked a fight. Right now the entire SLN inventory is so far behind as to be worthless junk except against someone equipped with similar junk.

Finally, there is no reason that the SL couldn't build SDPs or CLACs with their current tech. What they can't do is build the mdms or the LACs that would be up to date enough to make building those ships worthwhile.

Don

n7axw wrote:Finally, there is no reason that the SL couldn't build SDPs or CLACs with their current tech. What they can't do is build the mdms or the LACs that would be up to date enough to make building those ships worthwhile.

SD(P)s with single-drive missiles in their pods, let alone Cataphract-Cs or better, would be worthwhile (and the hidden advantage of a podlayer is that if you come up with a new missile that has radically different dimensions, you don't need to build a new ship to fire it -- you just need new pods). And I suspect a sufficiently motivated SDF or Solarian defense contractor would be up to building at least a first-gen Cimeterre-level LAC.

drothgery wrote:

n7axw wrote:Finally, there is no reason that the SL couldn't build SDPs or CLACs with their current tech. What they can't do is build the mdms or the LACs that would be up to date enough to make building those ships worthwhile.

SD(P)s with single-drive missiles in their pods, let alone Cataphract-Cs or better, would be worthwhile (and the hidden advantage of a podlayer is that if you come up with a new missile that has radically different dimensions, you don't need to build a new ship to fire it -- you just need new pods). And I suspect a sufficiently motivated SDF or Solarian defense contractor would be up to building at least a first-gen Cimeterre-level LAC.

Essentially you have to build a first shot, leaving lots of expansion and refit space for solutions to problem that were unsolved but in development when you completed the construction drawings. Then hope that it works out. This often does, but it also has resulted in some huge fiascoes. The rational way to do this is build one and see if it works, but in a war you instead will normally start mass production. Hence the possibility for an ugly expensive fiasco if it turns out that critical tech x is a lot harder then it looked, but as the alternative is total defeat....

n7axw wrote:Real good posts by everybody in this discussion. Just a couple of points to add. The first is to note that the basic tech of the more advanced core SL worlds is roughly even with Manticore's. What they haven't been doing is much r&d with military applications, at least on the pressurized level Manticore and Haven have become accustomed to.

The second thing to note is that the SLN had a vested interest in naval tech not advancing lest those thousands of ships in their inventory turn out to be obsolete and need replacement. The falasy in that, of course, is that this is precisely what has happened, with the better tech in the hands of someone with whom you've picked a fight. Right now the entire SLN inventory is so far behind as to be worthless junk except against someone equipped with similar junk.

Finally, there is no reason that the SL couldn't build SDPs or CLACs with their current tech. What they can't do is build the mdms or the LACs that would be up to date enough to make building those ships worthwhile.

Don

Don, while I wholly agree with your points, I think your second point needs to be amended somewhat.

At least for the foreseeable future, the ONLY star nations with advanced military hardware comparable to Manticore's are the other members of the GA, or those like Erewhon, Torch & Maya that soon will be joining the GA. And since the GA isn't interested in conquest, the League's various successor states won't have to worry about any immediate threat by anyone with that level of military technology.

That means that current generation Solarian military technology will be perfectly serviceable for those successor states, in order to defend themselves. As everyone has noted, the main qualifiers are whether the successor states will have navies of their own, what the various Battle Fleet and Frontier Fleet detachments based throughout the League's territory will decide to do, and whether those successor states without their own navies will have the foresight and the will to invest the immense resources (money, materiel) in building their own fleets.

Of course, no technological advantage can last forever. Eventually, the GA's technology will be duplicated elsewhere, but that's still a while off. It's THEN only that current generation Solarian military technology will become completely obsolete. Some foresighted leaders of successor states will realize that almost from the word go, and will opt to invest heavily in R&D efforts of their own, but most (I think) will not be that wise and will have to scramble to update their navies once the GA's technology spreads to other star nations.

hanuman wrote:Of course, no technological advantage can last forever. Eventually, the GA's technology will be duplicated elsewhere, but that's still a while off. It's THEN only that current generation Solarian military technology will become completely obsolete. Some foresighted leaders of successor states will realize that almost from the word go, and will opt to invest heavily in R&D efforts of their own, but most (I think) will not be that wise and will have to scramble to update their navies once the GA's technology spreads to other star nations.

No. Haven was noted for having a terrible educational system and crappy base tech, then had StateSec killing off people who asked uncomfortable questions or were seen as some sort of threat. Have you ever worked with engineers who do R&D or even product design and development? What percentage of them were likely seen as a threat?

Then they had this huge civil war that they spent years fighting. Despite this, 5 years later they not only had developed the tech, they had mass production underway for YEARS.

Right now we have people in the AE, RMN, GSN, Erwon, Beowulf and the SLN in Maya who understand EXACTLY how an MDM works, plus all the people who work at the fabrication plants that actually build the weapons. This is probably well over a million people at this point. What are the odds that someone won't get an offer they don't refuse?

So with the at least 1000x more R&D people than Haven had and starting at a much higher tech base I don't think the SL will take more than 2 years to have a prototype MDM built even if they can't get someone to sell them the entire tech data package for the Mk-23 or whatever the Haven missile is.

From that point, 3 years max before they have large numbers of MDM capable combatants in service.

kzt wrote:No. Haven was noted for having a terrible educational system and crappy base tech, then had StateSec killing off people who asked uncomfortable questions or were seen as some sort of threat. Have you ever worked with engineers who do R&D or even product design and development? What percentage of them were likely seen as a threat?

Then they had this huge civil war that they spent years fighting. Despite this, 5 years later they not only had developed the tech, they had mass production underway for YEARS.

Right now we have people in the AE, RMN, GSN, Erwon, Beowulf and the SLN in Maya who understand EXACTLY how an MDM works, plus all the people who work at the fabrication plants that actually build the weapons. This is probably well over a million people at this point. What are the odds that someone won't get an offer they don't refuse?

So with the at least 1000x more R&D people than Haven had and starting at a much higher tech base I don't think the SL will take more than 2 years to have a prototype MDM built even if they can't get someone to sell them the entire tech data package for the Mk-23 or whatever the Haven missile is.

From that point, 3 years max before they have large numbers of MDM capable combatants in service.

But will the Solarian League survive even that long? We're already seeing a movement not only in Beowulf, but also some of her daughter worlds, to hold popular plebiscites to decide upon secession from the League.

Over a quarter of the League's members voted against the move to hold an inquest as to whether Beowulf had committed treason against the League or not. Many of THEM will be inclined to secede. Even a whole lot of those who voted in favour of such an inquest will also be inclined to secede - after all, the ONLY reason they voted that way was because they don't much like Beowulf, not because they love the League all that much.

Once a serious secession movement takes off, we'll see a rapid disintegration of the League happening, as more and more of the League's members decide to leave under pressure of the economic slowdown caused by Laocoon II, or because of fear of a confrontation with the GA, or simply because they will figure that they can do so once the SLN's been shown to not be quite so invincible as they've always thought, or for a host of other reasons. Remember, the League's citizens do not have any deep sense of patriotism or loyalty towards the League; their primary loyalty is towards their own worlds, in the vast majority of cases.

At the same time, there's the MAlign, which has already set events in motion from its side. No, the League will truly go down the crapper in an amazingly short period of time.

Moreover, even if the SLN DOES manage to acquire GA-level military technology within two years, as you say, it will still take them any number of years to develop design blueprints, begin construction of their new warships AND bring those warships into general deployment in large numbers.

With the way the series is developing, there won't be a League left to reach that point, what, five or six or even more years down the line. Even if the SLN overcomes the impediment of institutionalised inertia and begins such a R&D programme right now.

That is what I was talking about, namely about the post-League era. Given the general chaos, social upheaval and economic troubles that will ensue, what will the League's successor states' priorities be? Building their own navies with the technology levels, from existing SLN designs, to respond to the immediate threat situation, or diverting increasingly scarce funds to a very expensive R&D push to acquire military hardware of a level of technology that will not be needed immediately but only years down the line?

Most of those successor states' primary priority will be determined by the survival imperative; in other words, get the stuff they need to survive the immediate peril, as quickly as possible and as cheaply as possible, and worry about the future when it becomes necessary to do so.