Long term consequences of the League's collapse

Castenea wrote:Those Core worlds that find themselves with a sudden need for a bigger and better Navy will not all be starting with SLN tech levels. SLN tech and doctrine should be considered a floor, not a ceiling. We have text ev, that the SLN is not taking maximum advantage of the tech it does have, and that Transtellars (at a min) are doing research. Proactive SDFs (even if they do not have wallers) have R+D budgets, how much they have produced will vary from very little to (rarely) game changers at Authorial discretion.

I believe that SDFs will vary from barely sufficient LACs, to Beowulf numbers of wallers. And the ships themselves could be museum pieces that barely are spaceworthy in some SDFs, to brand new with interesting new toys in those that are putting some effort to be the best.

Although I agree with the gist of your post, the question remains. Will those worlds have the financial resources and enough time to build strong enough fleets to survive the coming storm, in the wake of the battering their economies will have suffered as a consequence of Manticore's closure of the wormhole network to Solarian traffic?

Hey, isn't that amazing? I managed to put into one paragraph the entire point of that first, hellishly long post I wrote. Huh.

hanuman wrote:
Although I agree with the gist of your post, the question remains. Will those worlds have the financial resources and enough time to build strong enough fleets to survive the coming storm, in the wake of the battering their economies will have suffered as a consequence of Manticore's closure of the wormhole network to Solarian traffic?

To quote Adam Smith:

One day Sinclair brought Smith the news of the surrender of Burgoyne at Saratoga in October 1777, and exclaimed in the deepest concern that the nation was ruined. "There is a great deal of ruin in a nation," was Smith's calm reply.

hanuman wrote:

Castenea wrote:Those Core worlds that find themselves with a sudden need for a bigger and better Navy will not all be starting with SLN tech levels. SLN tech and doctrine should be considered a floor, not a ceiling. We have text ev, that the SLN is not taking maximum advantage of the tech it does have, and that Transtellars (at a min) are doing research. Proactive SDFs (even if they do not have wallers) have R+D budgets, how much they have produced will vary from very little to (rarely) game changers at Authorial discretion.

I believe that SDFs will vary from barely sufficient LACs, to Beowulf numbers of wallers. And the ships themselves could be museum pieces that barely are spaceworthy in some SDFs, to brand new with interesting new toys in those that are putting some effort to be the best.

Although I agree with the gist of your post, the question remains. Will those worlds have the financial resources and enough time to build strong enough fleets to survive the coming storm, in the wake of the battering their economies will have suffered as a consequence of Manticore's closure of the wormhole network to Solarian traffic?

Hey, isn't that amazing? I managed to put into one paragraph the entire point of that first, hellishly long post I wrote. Huh.

To put it bluntly, it depends, if you are the Core world whose entire SDF consists of barely spaceworthy museum pieces (all 200+T-years old), you are probably SOL.

If you are the Core world whose SDF has an ongoing R+D program and is currently building a CL with Compensators 10% better than SLN, more point defense and 50% more missile control channels than SLN CLs all on 1% more displacement, you are likely to survive even if that CL is your biggest ship.

Castenea wrote:To put it bluntly, it depends, if you are the Core world whose entire SDF consists of barely spaceworthy museum pieces (all 200+T-years old), you are probably SOL.

If you are the Core world whose SDF has an ongoing R+D program and is currently building a CL with Compensators 10% better than SLN, more point defense and 50% more missile control channels than SLN CLs all on 1% more displacement, you are likely to survive even if that CL is your biggest ship.

Well sure, it does depend on exactly which system we're talking about, but that's very relevant to this discussion. EXCEPT for Beowulf, we know almost nothing about ANY of the Solarian worlds' SDFs. We don't even know all that much about Beowulf's SDF, to be honest, except that they have 36 superdreadnoughts whose level of technology is probably better than anything the Solarian League Navy had deployed.

Castenea wrote:To put it bluntly, it depends, if you are the Core world whose entire SDF consists of barely spaceworthy museum pieces (all 200+T-years old), you are probably SOL.

If you are the Core world whose SDF has an ongoing R+D program and is currently building a CL with Compensators 10% better than SLN, more point defense and 50% more missile control channels than SLN CLs all on 1% more displacement, you are likely to survive even if that CL is your biggest ship.

If survival is your goal, you might not need enough force to defeat an enemy but only enough to convince a foe to look for easier pickings. Not a good choise but ...

I wonder how many of the core worlds would have military R&D programs. We do know that the economic policies of the League favored the core and that for hundreds of years they have been able to depend on the the protection of the SLN. So if you are planning no military adventures and perceive no threat, why bother?

Don

i think theleague collapse will cause human migration of people wanting to gt away, th thing is th quickst, easist way away from the league is via wormhols, so those that the allianc favors will get to great start, while those the alliance disapproves of will encounter limitations.

Hi Castenea,

You're quite right that the scope of SDF's ranges from antique museum pieces to some very good stuff.

Apparently some SDF's sent observers to the Haven wars, and at least some of those learned things that their SDF may have been working on over the past 17 years.

Given the widespread observations that the SL was going to collapse soon in CoS and every book since, these systems may have been preparing for the worst or their best opportunity to strike back at some ancient enemy or grab what they can in the chaos.

The financial and economic losses resulting from the MMM's withdrawal will certainly reduce surplus capital in all the SL systems; those that continue to pursue above normal planned expansion would be among those I'd watch more closely.

While a few in the shell could have squadrons of SD's, most of the 20 odd remaining navies with at least a battle squadron are probably in the core.

From MoH and that breakfast table conversation, both Elisabeth and Eloise already anticipate and expect a new front for Mesa that the RF fits rather well, so I don't expect the GA to be fooled by them for very long if at all.

L

Castenea wrote:**quote="hanuman"**[quote="Castenea"]Those Core worlds that find themselves with a sudden need for a bigger and better Navy will not all be starting with SLN tech levels. SLN tech and doctrine should be considered a floor, not a ceiling. We have text ev, that the SLN is not taking maximum advantage of the tech it does have, and that Transtellars (at a min) are doing research. Proactive SDFs (even if they do not have wallers) have R+D budgets, how much they have produced will vary from very little to (rarely) game changers at Authorial discretion.

I believe that SDFs will vary from barely sufficient LACs, to Beowulf numbers of wallers. And the ships themselves could be museum pieces that barely are spaceworthy in some SDFs, to brand new with interesting new toys in those that are putting some effort to be the best.**quote**

Although I agree with the gist of your post, the question remains. Will those worlds have the financial resources and enough time to build strong enough fleets to survive the coming storm, in the wake of the battering their economies will have suffered as a consequence of Manticore's closure of the wormhole network to Solarian traffic?

Hey, isn't that amazing? I managed to put into one paragraph the entire point of that first, hellishly long post I wrote. Huh.

To put it bluntly, it depends, if you are the Core world whose entire SDF consists of barely spaceworthy museum pieces (all 200+T-years old), you are probably SOL.

If you are the Core world whose SDF has an ongoing R+D program and is currently building a CL with Compensators 10% better than SLN, more point defense and 50% more missile control channels than SLN CLs all on 1% more displacement, you are likely to survive even if that CL is your biggest ship.[/quote]

I suppose quite a lot of the SDFs that have not planned ahead for the SLN break up have ships that are "equipped for but not with" better modern weapons and missiles.

Getting those better weapons, sensors, decoys and missiles installed before the security environment disintegrates will be quite a challenge I think.

I agree that the most important factor will be political will - being able to authorise funding for a full fleet upgrade on an emergency basis would not be easy in most polities.

The other factor is technological capability. Launching an effective military R&D apparatus from a cold start would be a really big challenge. I think the transtellar defence contractors will be receiving more contracts than they know what to do with very soon.

I have a feeling that they will permit their most basic designs to be produced locally under contract and produce their more advanced models themselves.

I also imagine that their primary shipyards will be full of ships in various states of construction most of the time as well. Not just manufactured for the SLN, but SDF's as well. Maybe there will be a start of WWI situation where Great Britain commandeered all the battleships it was building for other countries that were still in dock.

There is one very good reason for the transtellars not to do that though - trust. If they breach a contract in such a fashion they might not be getting many contracts in the future.

Hi BobfromSidney,

Kudos for some excellent points.

However, I suspect the transtellar defense contractors will have a few problems before responding to the probable increase in spending by SDF's.

First, the the time to send orders has increased rather considerably unless the GA permits access to the wormhole network.

Secondly, those contractors may head the list of GA targets because they're probably also major contractors with the SLN [Technodyne of Yildin comes to mind], so their capability to fill orders may soon be worse than the SKM's after OB, which is beginning to look more and more like a major mistake, since the SKM will soon have the best protected infrastructure of any system.

Thirdly, I suspect such contractors will probably have permanent GA detachments in system reviewing past sales and current customers, given their flexible attitude regarding pirates etc.

For example TIY may have been reorganized, but when the GA visits, I expect more whistle blowers will be very willing to share what else they know in the aftermath of learning the BF is being systematically destroyed and the SLN largely eliminated, NTM Mesa occupied.

When the full Mesa connection becomes well known, TIY even if it still had shipyards etc, might have trouble finding customers.

The main problem for the GA will be what to do with the R&D staff, leave it or send it someplace to be watched over, or given only civilian research contracts.

Your insights are quite welcome.

L

BobfromSydney wrote:I suppose quite a lot of the SDFs that have not planned ahead for the SLN break up have ships that are "equipped for but not with" better modern weapons and missiles.

Getting those better weapons, sensors, decoys and missiles installed before the security environment disintegrates will be quite a challenge I think.

I agree that the most important factor will be political will - being able to authorise funding for a full fleet upgrade on an emergency basis would not be easy in most polities.

The other factor is technological capability. Launching an effective military R&D apparatus from a cold start would be a really big challenge. I think the transtellar defence contractors will be receiving more contracts than they know what to do with very soon.

I have a feeling that they will permit their most basic designs to be produced locally under contract and produce their more advanced models themselves.

I also imagine that their primary shipyards will be full of ships in various states of construction most of the time as well. Not just manufactured for the SLN, but SDF's as well. Maybe there will be a start of WWI situation where Great Britain commandeered all the battleships it was building for other countries that were still in dock.

There is one very good reason for the transtellars not to do that though - trust. If they breach a contract in such a fashion they might not be getting many contracts in the future.