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Core world vulnerability

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Re: Core world vulnerability
Post by lyonheart   » Tue Jul 01, 2014 11:17 pm

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Hi TheEmile,

Perhaps this is what you were thinking of, that I found on HoS page 394 for the dead tree version, ~68% on my Kindle, near the beginning of the SD section; to the effect that having "even a single battle squadron automatically propels a naval force into one of the top two dozen or so navies in the galaxy."

So only 24+ navies have 8 or more wallers according to HoS/'Jaynes' [my old breakdown is pretty close ;) ], presumed to be SD's or DN's, not BB's from the context.

Besides the 7 navies we know by name that have SD's; by size or numbers there's the SLN, RHN, RMN, IAN, GSN, BSDF and Erewhon SN, plus the majority of the RF have large SDF's but whether these all include SD's is another point we don't know.

While the RMN and peeps combined averaged about 20% wallers in 1905, I doubt the navies with up to a hundred hyper warships to have a battle squadron, ie a few perhaps only 2-3 for scarecrow and ceremonial duties.

I suspect most of the SDF's that do might be range be closer to 10% than 20%, though there's a reference somewhere that the SDF's have a thousand or two.

L


PS: A wormhole map would be so helpful, is one in the works for the next book?


Theemile wrote:
lyonheart wrote:Hi TheEmile,

What's the basis for your reference to '25 SDF's with 25 or more capital ships'?

Is this a 1% of SL rule?

That's rather fascinating, actually.

But I don't think the protectorates should be included, since they're not permitted warships etc.

We have the textev from SFtS that stated Crandall's TG massed more than 95% of the extant or real navies [including the non-SL verge], is that what you're referring to?

So it depends on your definition of a 'real' navy, and given only a third of the SL had hyper warships in their SDF's, many perhaps half or more of those have too few to be considered 'real' navies.

The number in SFtS might refer to all those that at least had a BC or CA, but we're just guessing.

The 1% ratio seems very interesting.

L


**quote="Theemile"**While most core worlds have their own SDFs, the question is how many have just a hundred or so LACS, or just some hyper combatants?

We know there are 25 or so navies (the top 1%) that have 25 or more BB-SDs. Another 25 or so have 3-24. And another 50 have 1-2 white elephants. So just ~4% of navies in the universe have 1 or more BB-SDs.

But that doesn't say anything about defenses.

In particuliar RFC never mentioned forts in the above calculus. While Manticore had ~300 DNs and SDs in 1905, it had ~120 forts around the Manticore junction which all massed >16 MTons (or if you do the math, about the same mass in Wallers as in Junction Forts, if the Forts did not have the advantage) as well as Forts around the planets, the Gregor terminus (mentioned in HaE) and being built at Basilisk.

In short, the RMN, an active navy who policed it own merchant marine across the cosmos, who was planning on a multisystem war had as much mass tied up in forts as it did mobile units.

So a peacetime SDF, whose interstellar commerce is protected by the SLN's FF, only needs to police their claimed volume - and will probably be Fort heavy. Forts are a permanent fixture - an infrastructure improvement. something Politicians can point to. Ships go away - they are an agressive statement, with agressive intent. Forts are only defensive - they are that ever present reminder that your children are safe and your government cares that they are.

As to the mention that the breakway systems will lay claim to part of the SLN - if every of the ~1780 SL Systems get their equal share of the SL's Battlefleet right now, they will each get 5-6 SDs - just enough for a mild workout for a Sag-C division.
**quote**

The origial 25 wallers/1% comes from early in the series - I believe OBS, but I don't have my notes with me atm. the full 4% comes from a dump from MWW about 2-3 years ago when the question of the number of systems which had 1-2 BBs and how many large polities like those in the Haven Quadrant poped up. The answer was some additional powerful extra league polities, but not alot.

The 1% is the top 1% of all navies in the Honorverse that are big enough to field over 3 squadrons of wallers (BBs count here too) David did say that most of the systems with Wallers were in the SL, and there were very few minor powers outside the SL on peer with the Havenite quadrant powers in 1904.

As for the definition of a Navy - you got me. David didn't mention a bottom litmus test, So
As far as I know, If you have a planet and you have a LAC, you have a navy. But the statement was definitely "Navies" not the power of the "Polities", so a defenseless state like a Protectorate would not be in that calculation.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Core world vulnerability
Post by SYED   » Wed Jul 02, 2014 12:54 am

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If there are so few actual navies, you have to wonder how many of thhose are influenced by the alignment. mesa could not have a competant navy, but the unknown powers could. we know mannerheim has a good navy set up. If they all have good navies, when they star up their own set up, it could be seen the big boy makeing a deal and debiding the spoils.
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Re: Core world vulnerability
Post by Weird Harold   » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:36 am

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SYED wrote:If there are so few actual navies, you have to wonder how many of thhose are influenced by the alignment. mesa could not have a competant navy, but the unknown powers could. we know mannerheim has a good navy set up. If they all have good navies, when they star up their own set up, it could be seen the big boy makeing a deal and debiding the spoils.



There are eleven systems in the Renaissance Factor and the Mesan System Navy (which probably has been gutted but seemed to be a respectable force in Crown of Slaves) There are also the Spider Drive warships of Darius, but those ships and the Darius system won't be counted among SDFs because they don't "exist" outside of a system that doesn't "exist."

Mission of Honor
Chapter Thirty-nine
wrote:
...given that the Mannerheim System-Defense Force was far and away the most powerful of the Alignment's component navies.

...

"We all know why I can't," Albrecht Detweiler repeated softly. "But when the eleven of you stand up and announce the Factor's existence, believe me, I'll be standing right there with you. And I can't think of anyone I could possibly be prouder to have representing all of us."


I think it is reasonable to infer that all of the members of the Renaissance Factor have system defense forces (components of the Mesa Alignment Navy) since they are planning on offering "protection" to neighboring systems to make a start on replacing the SL.

Mission of Honor
Chapter Thirty-nine
wrote:
Until, that was, the rest of the galaxy discovered that the Renaissance Factor had become exactly what it called itself—the reinvigorated successor of the Solarian League, at least as big and powerful as the League itself had ever been, and dedicated, indeed, to the rebirth of humanity in a new and glorious future of potential fully realized at last.


Realizing that goal would be tough enough with only eleven (twelve plus the survivors of the MSN) SDFs as the seed of a new SLN. I can't imagine the MAlign handicapping themselves by starting with less.

I'd also guess that the MAlign controls eleven (or twelve) of the known top 25 SDFs.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

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Re: Core world vulnerability
Post by kzt   » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:47 am

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IIRC, these comments are in character, so there is some literary license used. Unless the character saying is an an order of battle specialist with a good understanding of all the 1000+ SLN SDFs and all the other non SL militaries I would tend to doubt they really know this.

For example, without looking it up, what is the difference in the number of MBTs between the 10th ranked and and 20th ranked military today?

Or, how many police do you need in a city to have a city police force be one the largest 25 in the world? Which will then raise the question as to how you define police, because a bunch of counties have multiple specialized police organizations. For example, in Paris do you count the Gendarmarie Nationale, the Police Nationale and/or the Préfecture de police de Paris?
Last edited by kzt on Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Core world vulnerability
Post by lyonheart   » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:54 am

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Hi Jonathan_S,

Quite right.

We know some SDF's are more advanced than the SLN, but not in exactly what way because RFC keeps his hole cards inside his vest. ;)

Most of the core systems, pretty much the 'old league' generally rely on the SLN, using just LAC's for local defense, but how many systems are in the core/OL?

The boundary of the old league was 98 LY in the UHH, but some is out to near 183 LY where Yildin is in SoS, so the former could be from almost a sixth of the volume of the SL, if its around 23.83 M cubic LY, for around 295 systems, while a full 180 LY radius would be 2.54% greater than that presumed size, which invalidates it.

RFC has told us 2/3 or so of the SL have only LAC's, while the maximum number of hyper warships in any SDF is around 800, yet according to HoS [p394] only two dozen plus navies have more than 8 wallers, or roughly 20 other SDF's after the 7 navies we know have SD's; the SLN, RHN, RMN, IAN, GSN, BSDF and the Erewhon SN, that we know of.

So ~20 SDF's have 8 or more, but there could easily be 20 or more with less than 8 waller's, perhaps up to 40?

Out of ~600 nominal SDF's with hyper warships, might 10% have at least one waller?

One quarter of the EC voted with Beowulf, possibly representing up to a third of the member systems, so based on that evidence I expect the odds of them having some hyper warships to be better than 2-1.

RFC, the MWW back at the bar, told us back in 2006 IIRC, that some SL members were building their SDF's because they didn't trust their neighbors, while others were building theirs because they indeed had designs on their neighbors.

I suspect that arms race type behavior to be more common in the shells than the core, but odds are that some is still likely in the core.

We have textev for small navies like New Tuscany's, in the 10-20 ship range to have DD's and CL's, while Monica 32 ship navy had heavy cruisers.

At what size does a navy add BC's, when they get to 50 ships, 60, 75 or 100?

Are wallers then likely at 150 or 200 ships?

Does anyone care to take a swing at breaking down the average for a navy, such as what level a navy might have a squadron of BC's?

Regarding the RF, we know combined they have a large force, but its doubtful all of them [11] have large SDF's, that's too much of a coincidence.

L


Jonathan_S wrote:
SWM wrote:**quote="SYED"**There seem to be a cntradictory statement. Most of the league SDF are limited, except for a few that have a proper nacy like beowolf. On the other hand, the navy of sdf are said to be more advanced than the league.**quote**
Not a contradiction. Most of the League SDFs are very limited in size and composition. But at least some (no one said all) League SDFs have paid more attention to the changes in warfare evident in the Haven Quadrant than has the SLN, and have done what they can to understand and make use of that information. How much they have been able to do (especially with the limited size of their navies) is not clear.

Yep, that'll be interesting to see.

But theoretically there's no reason a SDF with nothing larger than, say, a squadron of BCs couldn't be on the ball and making sure their limited force is as cutting edge as it can be. (More proactive about acquiring new technology, and more aggressive about refitting their ships with it)
And even a BC squadron should place them at least in the upper middle tier of SDFs.


That would result in a hypothetical force that was both smaller/weaker but also more (technologically) advanced than the SLN. On a class by class basis they might have a distinct edge over even Frontier Fleet; but not previously had a need for vast numbers or larger combatants.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Core world vulnerability
Post by Weird Harold   » Wed Jul 02, 2014 2:12 am

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lyonheart wrote:RFC, the MWW back at the bar, told us back in 2006 IIRC, that some SL members were building their SDF's because they didn't trust their neighbors, while others were building theirs because they indeed had designs on their neighbors.

...

Regarding the RF, we know combined they have a large force, but its doubtful all of them [11] have large SDF's, that's too much of a coincidence.


I wouldn't call an evil conspiracy to take over the universe a "coincidence. :shock:

It may well be that the eleven members of the RF are those "others ... building theirs because they indeed had designs on their neighbors." We do know that they do, in fact, have designs on their neighbors. Claiming the don't trust their neighbors would fit their "official" position of forming a new star nation in self-defense, too.

In short, the eleven members of the RF know chaos is comming soon and would logically prepare militarily to survive, if not prosper, when it comes.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

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Re: Core world vulnerability
Post by drothgery   » Wed Jul 02, 2014 2:27 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:
lyonheart wrote:RFC, the MWW back at the bar, told us back in 2006 IIRC, that some SL members were building their SDF's because they didn't trust their neighbors, while others were building theirs because they indeed had designs on their neighbors.

...

Regarding the RF, we know combined they have a large force, but its doubtful all of them [11] have large SDF's, that's too much of a coincidence.


I wouldn't call an evil conspiracy to take over the universe a "coincidence. :shock:

It may well be that the eleven members of the RF are those "others ... building theirs because they indeed had designs on their neighbors." We do know that they do, in fact, have designs on their neighbors. Claiming the don't trust their neighbors would fit their "official" position of forming a new star nation in self-defense, too.

In short, the eleven members of the RF know chaos is comming soon and would logically prepare militarily to survive, if not prosper, when it comes.


I'm pretty sure RFC has indicated that Mannerheim is the largest RF SDF by a fairly large margin either here or in other infodumps. Don't have a cite on-hand, though.
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Re: Core world vulnerability
Post by Theemile   » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:22 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:
SYED wrote:If there are so few actual navies, you have to wonder how many of thhose are influenced by the alignment. mesa could not have a competant navy, but the unknown powers could. we know mannerheim has a good navy set up. If they all have good navies, when they star up their own set up, it could be seen the big boy makeing a deal and debiding the spoils.



There are eleven systems in the Renaissance Factor and the Mesan System Navy (which probably has been gutted but seemed to be a respectable force in Crown of Slaves) There are also the Spider Drive warships of Darius, but those ships and the Darius system won't be counted among SDFs because they don't "exist" outside of a system that doesn't "exist."

Mission of Honor
Chapter Thirty-nine
wrote:
...given that the Mannerheim System-Defense Force was far and away the most powerful of the Alignment's component navies.

...

"We all know why I can't," Albrecht Detweiler repeated softly. "But when the eleven of you stand up and announce the Factor's existence, believe me, I'll be standing right there with you. And I can't think of anyone I could possibly be prouder to have representing all of us."


I think it is reasonable to infer that all of the members of the Renaissance Factor have system defense forces (components of the Mesa Alignment Navy) since they are planning on offering "protection" to neighboring systems to make a start on replacing the SL.

Mission of Honor
Chapter Thirty-nine
wrote:
Until, that was, the rest of the galaxy discovered that the Renaissance Factor had become exactly what it called itself—the reinvigorated successor of the Solarian League, at least as big and powerful as the League itself had ever been, and dedicated, indeed, to the rebirth of humanity in a new and glorious future of potential fully realized at last.


Realizing that goal would be tough enough with only eleven (twelve plus the survivors of the MSN) SDFs as the seed of a new SLN. I can't imagine the MAlign handicapping themselves by starting with less.

I'd also guess that the MAlign controls eleven (or twelve) of the known top 25 SDFs.



I can imagine there are several SLN Taskforces whose leadership will side or defect with their fleets to the Ren. Factor at pivitol moments coming up. A fleet or 2 like Crandal's will sure make a difference against the rest of the SDFs and the SLN.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Core world vulnerability
Post by n7axw   » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:49 pm

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It seems to me that the key to this thing will be for the GA to identify the RF as an opponent. If they are seen as a friend, they could probably encourage their neighbors to join up for mutual protection. Heck, GA might even encourage it, not knowing RF to be the public face of the Alignment.

If GA figures out what is going on, none of those SDFs are competition against an unfriendly visit from a fleet of allied SDPs. The spiders are more dangerous, of course, but hopefully progress is being made on dealing with the stealth.

What it is all going to come down to in the end is how successful GA's intelligence turns out to be.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Core world vulnerability
Post by Weird Harold   » Wed Jul 02, 2014 4:29 pm

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drothgery wrote:Don't have a cite on-hand, though.


No problem, I posted the textev for that about four posts back from yours:

Mission of Honor
Chapter Thirty-nine wrote:
...given that the Mannerheim System-Defense Force was far and away the most powerful of the Alignment's component navies.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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