Post war plans

The war against the SL has been proceeding faster than anyone had expected. The SEM and the GA might be in the position of winning the war but losing the peace.

It's been stated that the best outcome for the SEM is to be surrounded by near peer, friendly star nations.

How does the GA get from the present situation to that?

The SEM is probably already overextended in the ongoing transition from Kingdom to Empire. It's difficult to seem more that a small number of nearby (in terms of total transit time) additional former SL worlds being directly incorporated.

Does the GA encourage or direct formation of star nations from the wreckage of the SL? Given previous experiments of this type, like the creation of African nations form former colonies after WWI, expectations must be low. Yet doing nothing is also not an option - consider the new Caliphate absorbing the vacuum that was Iraq.

Does Beowolf become Greater Beowolf? Are they willing to take on the effort? The same would apply to Grayson, but Grayson may be happy to have new healthy worlds incorporated.

Do we have any sign the GA is thinking about this?

First of all, spacerguy, welcome to the Forum.

Nice first post, this has been a subject of some concern to we Forumites and until the MWW (Mad Wizard Weber, otherwise known as RunsforCelery (RFC) or David Weber) gets us the next novel, it will remain a major subject.

So lets take a look at your points...

spacerguy wrote:The war against the SL has been proceeding faster than anyone had expected. The SEM and the GA might be in the position of winning the war but losing the peace.

It's been stated that the best outcome for the SEM is to be surrounded by near peer, friendly star nations.

Yep, according to Honor's strategic outlook.

How does the GA get from the present situation to that?

Aye, that's the rub.

The SEM is probably already overextended in the ongoing transition from Kingdom to Empire. It's difficult to seem more that a small number of nearby (in terms of total transit time) additional former SL worlds being directly incorporated.

And I think most of the folks here agree with you. Manticore was never interested in becoming a multi-system polity, it was rather forced on them by survival (Basklisk and Trevor's Star, albeit they did ask for incorporation), realpolitik (Silesia) and the unforseen consequences of the new wormhole destination (Talbott and Lynx). Adding even more systems would put a rather large burden on them, not to mention causing more political opposition to form as the idea of the "Star Kingdom" gets moved further back in importance to the ever-growing "Empire".

Does the GA encourage or direct formation of star nations from the wreckage of the SL? Given previous experiments of this type, like the creation of African nations form former colonies after WWI, expectations must be low. Yet doing nothing is also not an option - consider the new Caliphate absorbing the vacuum that was Iraq.

Excellent point, and I think Honor's (and now the GA) plans were to exploit cracks that were already there, not create new cracks or try to meld groups that share nothing in common together...which happened in Africa and Iraq.

What I mean is that (thanks to the Manticore Merchant Marine), the GA has a good idea (perhaps even better than the Mandarins) on which systems fit best together, which ones don't, and which ones will be a problem. And the biggest thing that they have to do (and pray that there are enough capable diplomats available) is to encourage the formation of new polities, but not mandate them. Most of the systems (those in the Core and Shell at least) are as advanced as Manticore in terms of living, and will take...poorly..to being ordered around. However, if they are shown where it is in their best interests....

Does Beowolf become Greater Beowolf? Are they willing to take on the effort? The same would apply to Grayson, but Grayson may be happy to have new healthy worlds incorporated.

I don't (personally) see a "greater Beowulf'. I could see a "federation' of like-minded planets coalescing around Beowulf, maintaining their independence but coordinating their foreign policy and trade. As for Grayson, I see them making new friends, but home is where the toxins are, and Graysons are now wedded to their planet through centuries of The Test, so I don't see them spreading out all that much.

Do we have any sign the GA is thinking about this?

Outside of the "Harrington doctrine" mentioned above and I believe described in Storm from the Shadows (I could be wrong there), we haven't seen it in actual operation....yet.

And that is why I am waiting for the next book with great anticipation.....

Nice post. And welcome again.

Hutch wrote:

Does Beowolf become Greater Beowolf? Are they willing to take on the effort? The same would apply to Grayson, but Grayson may be happy to have new healthy worlds incorporated.

I don't (personally) see a "greater Beowulf'. I could see a "federation' of like-minded planets coalescing around Beowulf, maintaining their independence but coordinating their foreign policy and trade. As for Grayson, I see them making new friends, but home is where the toxins are, and Graysons are now wedded to their planet through centuries of The Test, so I don't see them spreading out all that much.

I don't really see maintaining their independence happening. That's is basically how the Solarian League started, and maintaining the independence of the individual systems is one of the biggest reasons the League decayed into corruption the way it did. Beowulf left the League because the bureaucracy was no longer controllable by the elected assembly due to disagreements between the independent systems. In fact, it has basically turned around and the bureaucrats control the elected assembly precisely BECAUSE the elected legislature is too weak to matter. Any new organization gathering around Beowulf would probably insist on a stronger elected central government with the ability to actually control the bureaucracy instead of needing the bureaucracy to get anything done.

keylime314 wrote:

Hutch wrote:I don't (personally) see a "greater Beowulf'. I could see a "federation' of like-minded planets coalescing around Beowulf, maintaining their independence but coordinating their foreign policy and trade. As for Grayson, I see them making new friends, but home is where the toxins are, and Graysons are now wedded to their planet through centuries of The Test, so I don't see them spreading out all that much.

I don't really see maintaining their independence happening. That's is basically how the Solarian League started, and maintaining the independence of the individual systems is one of the biggest reasons the League decayed into corruption the way it did. Beowulf left the League because the bureaucracy was no longer controllable by the elected assembly due to disagreements between the independent systems. In fact, it has basically turned around and the bureaucrats control the elected assembly precisely BECAUSE the elected legislature is too weak to matter. Any new organization gathering around Beowulf would probably insist on a stronger elected central government with the ability to actually control the bureaucracy instead of needing the bureaucracy to get anything done.

I could just as easily see a new organization around Beowulf going the other way. The problem with the League could also be placed at the feet of given the central bureaucracy too much money and power.

Instead of going for a central multiplanet government they could go for decentralized trade agreements and defensive alliances; maybe, maybe, with a standing unified NATO style command structure. That command has no separate or dedicated funding stream (no getting into bed with transtellers) and the military forces are under the control of each planet that contributes them (so they can be stripped from the central command if it begins acting up)

Shrug - I guess we'll have to wait and see.

The analogy with Africa is somewhat flawed, in this instance. Firstly, because whatever else, Africa is a single continent on a single planet. Yes, it might only be a matter of scale, but even in the Honorverse a few lightyears' distance between planets might just as well be a universe away for the vast majority of those worlds' populations - they will never get to travel to another planet (or even off-world just within their own system). The situation in Africa is quite different. Even if a person travels just a few dozen kilometres from their home village or town, they'd still (in most cases) cross over into a region inhabited by people with different customs, who speak a different language, with different traditional leaders etc. Most Africans will experience different cultures quite frequently within their lifetimes. In comparison, the worlds of the Honorverse are pretty self-contained. Yes, they have contact with each other, but that contact is second-hand for the vast majority of people.

Now Beowulf. I'm not saying this will happen, but I can see a possible political union of some kind between Beowulf and some/most(?)/all(???) of her daughter worlds.

Jonathan_S wrote:

keylime314 wrote:I don't really see maintaining their independence happening. That's is basically how the Solarian League started, and maintaining the independence of the individual systems is one of the biggest reasons the League decayed into corruption the way it did. Beowulf left the League because the bureaucracy was no longer controllable by the elected assembly due to disagreements between the independent systems. In fact, it has basically turned around and the bureaucrats control the elected assembly precisely BECAUSE the elected legislature is too weak to matter. Any new organization gathering around Beowulf would probably insist on a stronger elected central government with the ability to actually control the bureaucracy instead of needing the bureaucracy to get anything done.

I could just as easily see a new organization around Beowulf going the other way. The problem with the League could also be placed at the feet of given the central bureaucracy too much money and power.

Instead of going for a central multiplanet government they could go for decentralized trade agreements and defensive alliances; maybe, maybe, with a standing unified NATO style command structure. That command has no separate or dedicated funding stream (no getting into bed with transtellers) and the military forces are under the control of each planet that contributes them (so they can be stripped from the central command if it begins acting up)

Shrug - I guess we'll have to wait and see.

I could see it going that direction too. That, however, is not a government. That's a trade agreement between different nations.

I didn't express myself well there. What I was arguing against was that Beowulf and it's daughter colonies would be quick to form a new multi-system government that makes the exact same mistake the original league founders did. By investing too little power in elected officials in the name of system rights, the Solarian founders let the unelected bureaucrats (who don't answer to any system or electorate) and transstellars (who only answer to profit at any cost) run wild. Had to run wild in the case of the bureaucrats, because, get this, things actually need to get done and the assembly wasn't capable of getting them done. The problems stem from the bureaucracy gaining more and more power because it was the ONLY way to do what was needed. The elected legislature was effectively barred from any attempts to restrict the bureaucrats by the large amount of independence granted to the individual systems by the Solarian Constitution. All it took was one system exercising it's constitutional right (read: being bribed by a transstellar) to say 'we like what the bureaucrats are doing, VETO on stopping them' to let the unelected bureaucrats and transstellars do what they wanted.

I can see either direction happening, but there's no chance a 'Beowulf League' would just try to return to the original 'all systems have a veto and complete independence to simply ignore the legislature' of the original League.

Formation of strong, stable regional successor states is probably the optimal situation for many worlds. But I expect that there will be even more attempts by the stronger former SL members to grab as many surrounding worlds as they can by force. (Not a formula for a peaceful, friendly neighbor.) Will the GA recognize that attempts to support nearby states work their way to stablity (probably with naval units and financial support) pay off in the long run? (Think France and Germany after the Nazis were defeated.)

Remember that the GA Navies will probably be under pressure to reduce their size after major combat is completed (many members will have been fighting for decades and will want to go home) and there will be financial pressures also. This while former SL space will have to be monitored by the Navies to ensure no successor state can be a threat AND supporting more friendly nearby entities while they take shape.

I think the region of GA space will be a candle in the darkness for most of human occupied space for generations. Not that the end result won't be for the better, but the near future is not likely to be a time of peace for much of the former SL.

spacerguy wrote: Will the GA recognize that attempts to support nearby states work their way to stablity (probably with naval units and financial support) pay off in the long run? (Think France and Germany after the Nazis were defeated.)

I am wondering the same. If several systems are united by con quest will the Grand Alliance let them stand, as long as no injustices are being carried out, or will they step in and stop them?
I see many syaytems and goveners doing this if the have the naval strength to do so. Will the Grand Alliance stomp on them all because they are doing conquests, or let them go if they are not extremeists?

Commodore Oakius wrote:

spacerguy wrote: Will the GA recognize that attempts to support nearby states work their way to stablity (probably with naval units and financial support) pay off in the long run? (Think France and Germany after the Nazis were defeated.)

I am wondering the same. If several systems are united by con quest will the Grand Alliance let them stand, as long as no injustices are being carried out, or will they step in and stop them?
I see many syaytems and goveners doing this if the have the naval strength to do so. Will the Grand Alliance stomp on them all because they are doing conquests, or let them go if they are not extremeists?

Darned good question. I suspect that the answer will have to be decided on a case by case basis and how the commercial and military interests of GA members are impacted. That sounds a bit less than idealistic, but GA simply doesn't have the resourses to play cop for the whole galaxy.

Don

i think matapan is where there are a bunch of systems, who are independant but recognise manticore's power over the region, i see this sort of system extending accross the terminii network, starting at the systms at the terminii, then to those between them, on the paths traveled by shipping.