Long term consequences of the League's collapse

hanuman wrote:

Kaezar wrote:One thing, folks. Beware of the assumptions, especially those you don't notice you are doing. I don't think the galaxy is "thick" enough to support that sphere. IIRC, and I may not, since it was a long time ago, the galaxy at our neighborhood is around 50-200 LY thick. So that sphere looks more like a disk.

According to Wikipedia the spiral arms are on average about 1000ly thick.

The key word there is average. In any case, the radius of colonised human space seems to extend around 800-1200 light years from Sol, so they might have touched the ceiling and floor of the local arm already. The League proper, however, might be far more spherical than explored/explorable space is.

munroburton wrote:The key word there is average. In any case, the radius of colonised human space seems to extend around 800-1200 light years from Sol, so they might have touched the ceiling and floor of the local arm already. The League proper, however, might be far more spherical than explored/explorable space is.

And since holographic technology is in its infancy, we depend on Mr Weber for details about the astrography of human space in the Honorverse. I understand that he is a busy man, and that he actually has a real life away from his writing, so I don't blame him for not spending a lot of time on unnecessary details (unnecessary for the purposes of the story, I mean).

Still, more details are always welcome, but that's just because I'm an addict.

Great discussion going on here...

It seems to me that GA has two priorities here to follow. First, they want to break up the League. That doesn't mean each world automatcally goes on its own. GA's purposes are served if sectors split intact. Consider Barragos and Maya. In fact GA might encourage the formation of other new sectors where things fragment into pieces too small to be sustainable for defensive purposes.

Secondly Manticore must honor those mutual defensive treaties it makes to encourage the breakup of the League. That should not mean GA is forever the fireman sent out to quell local trouble everywhere. What it should mean is that GA offers assistance in raising, training and equiping local firemen so that the locals are able to police their own problems.

Finally some posters here seem to be assuming that the League is the primary threat. Not so as I see the story arc development going. Within less that 5 years, the League will be gone or so impotent that it will be unable to meaningfully project power from the center. The primary short term threat that sectors and systems will face will be empire building by Barregos wannabes and such things as piracy. The intermediate to long term threat will be the MAlign who actng through the RF will try to gather the pieces of the League under its own tutelege to impose its vision of the human future on everyone else. The Alignment was counting on the chaos resulting from the League's breakup to make it easy to encourage desparate systems to find refuge with the RF. But now instead with the formation of the GA they face competition that has tech which overall probably a bit better than their own along with an industrial resourse base that is many times bigger. I think it will be the competion between Alignment and RF that creates the tension in the next part of the story.

Don

It's important to realize that, generally speaking, any single core world has the ability to build and man a fleet the size of the RMN. It would hurt a bit more, but they also have a functioning economy, which Manticore doesn't right now.

Hi Hanuman,

Sometimes you seem to be arguing both sides here at the same time.

While I think you mean the GA will help out within its limited means, rather than not at all; or to the suffering of its own citizens.

But those citizens aren't suffering now and I suspect that Haven's citizens will soon be doing far better than they ever have in their memory when the SEM's trade and tech is available for the first time in a generation [over 60 years].

True, Manticore has its heavy industry to rebuild, but RFC has posted that they will have a huge chunk up in another year and most in 4-5 years, while we've yet to see any suffering or complaints, and the WHJ and its associated industries of finance and trade are still galaxy leaders as well, so income from foreign sources is still huge by everyone else's standards; remember the SKM's per capita income was around 7-8 times the SL average in WroH as I recall.

Granted the GA population may be under 400 B right now, while the SL, about 2/3 of humanity could have something between 11-13 trillion or around 30-1.

But that 11-13 trillion is not united, does not consider it self to be 'Sollies' in the first place, and a quarter to a third sided with Beowulf despite all the pressure put on by the mandarins.

Those members might add 2-4 trillion to the GA, for a bit better odds.

If only a 100 of those that joined Beowulf in the GA had hyper warships, that might be plenty to provide the patrols needed to prevent EE violations, piracy etc.

So the nominal 90 nodal stations I mentioned could be cut considerably by the wormhole network and the ex-SL member's, before seeking strategic bases and allies among the protectorates.

The active crew size of the SLN was around 22 million, a pittance out of 11+ trillion or a 500,000-1 ratio, if the GA had to provide the same number of crewmen that ratio would initially drop to below 20,000-1, but if it were necessary the current GA could easily bear it, except given its technological superiority the GA doesn't need to triple its crewmen to achieve the same results.

First, its been almost a year since second NT, so even at freighter speeds in hyper that's over a thousand LY radius everywhere from NT, just about everyone has seen the imagery of a SLN TG BC flagship being destroyed EASILY and for the first time ever, a SLN TF SURRENDERED to somebody else, despite still outnumbering them.

I think everyone in the verge knows what navy did it.

2&1/2 month's later, Crandall's fleet of SD's is captured after a third are easily destroyed, again without loss.

Thanks to the WHJ, I think almost everybody has heard about Spindle too by now.

It's been 4-5 month's since Filaretta was obliterated, and I suspect most people, thanks again to the WHJ network [38 days to cross 1680 LY of the explored galaxy] have heard about that now despite OFS attempts at censorship, since news would be just part of what typical freighter crews have to trade.

Personally, I think the RMN's reputation right now, and thus the GA's, with the average verge and protectorate systems, NTM the shells', is rather astronomical at the moment; so I don't see many wanting to provoke the RMN or GA in the first place, permitting smaller picket forces than I previously listed while still deterring EE violations and performing the police role so many expect to be lost.

No one has suggested any kind of economic aid or involvement to lift up the protectorates at this time, which you've implied.

Since the general theme is that simply eliminating the OFS and seizing the transtellars would dramatically improve the economic quality of life on all the protectorates [Maya excepted] to say nothing of the personal liberty, such aid would be in the package the GA would offer after the SLN had been eliminated.

Remember, the SLN ships are basically just targets for the GA, and most if not all of their crews should know that by now.

Once the BF is eradicated, I don't see the FF being dumb enough to fight the GA. For what?

L

hanuman wrote:
SNIPPED 4 SPACE REASONS

Syed, despite Haven's size and the ever-growing size of the Star Empire, they and the rest of the GA's members still comprise only a minor part of human space territory-wise, and a truly miniscule part population-wise. I would be surprised if the entire GA has a population in excess of 500 billion, and that is being generous. Compare that to how many trillions of people in the League and its Protectorates alone, never mind the untold numbers of people living in the Verge.

I agree that the GA can keep control of the entire wormhole network, or if not, then at least most of it, and that it will do so for strategic reasons (denying passage to any ship registered to a hostile star nation, and thereby not only keeping the advantage wrt the comm delay and crippling their enemies' economies, but also to encourage potentially-hostile star nations to either remain neutral or become allied to the GA), without having to weaken its members' home defences too much.

In fact, I think it's probable that the GA will be able to designate special task forces for missions against targets deep within hostile territory, over and above home defence and control of the wormhole network. How much so, I cannot tell you, but it should be possible.

But beyond those three primary mandates? Not a snowball's chance in hell that the GA could possibly take over as a peacekeeping force everywhere the Solarian League is pushed out of or withdraw from.

kzt wrote:It's important to realize that, generally speaking, any single core world has the ability to build and man a fleet the size of the RMN. It would hurt a bit more, but they also have a functioning economy, which Manticore doesn't right now.

I'd amend that statement somewhat. They have a functioning economy right now, but not for long. With Manticore withdrawing its merchant marine, there simply won't be enough hulls to carry their interstellar trade. Manticore's closure of the wormhole network to Solarian ships will only exacerbate the collapse of Solarian interstellar trade, because what (relatively) few merchant ships the Core Worlds do have at their disposal will have to travel so much further to get to their destinations. That, in turn,will lead to a huge increase in carrying costs and therefore a drop in demand for Core World goods.

Within a very short period of time the Core Worlds and most of the Shell Worlds as well will find themselves in a very difficult fiscal position, which will hinder their ability to build their own fleets. Especially if they intend for those fleets to include wallers of any kind.

And that's another point we need to consider. By now EVERYONE in the League knows that no current Solarian ship-of-the-wall (or any other warship, for that matter) can possibly survive against current Havenite or Manticoran warships. But remember that the typical arrogance of the Solarians is such a deeply entrenched attitude that in a lot of cases it will take a while for local leaders to really accept the League's inferiority in terms of military technology.

So even if a Core World's leadership should realize that the League's about to disintegrate and therefore decides to build a navy of their own, will they have the foresight to realize exactly how bad things are about to become? Even if they do, will they have the resources to build a strong enough navy to survive the coming storm? Importantly, will they have LONG ENOUGH to build such a navy? Or even just a few squadrons of non-wallers? Remember, even if a star system has the infrastructure to build warships, it still takes something like six months (if I remember correctly) a single cruiser, never mind whole squadrons of them.

And then there's this question: what threat level should that navy be built to withstand? Both wrt numbers AND technology level, I mean. Does that hypothetical Core World choose to counter the local threat level - in other words, does it look at its neighbours and opt to match THEIR numbers and current technology? Or does it go for a more farsighted option, and try for the most advanced technology and as large a navy as its battered economy will allow? And speaking of technology, are its leaders so wedded to the notion of Solarian superiority that they insist on the best SOLARIAN technology for their new navy, or are they open-minded enough to accept that Solarian technology had become dangerously outdated.

And if they do realize that, will they have the resources to jumpstart an intensive R+D programme of their own? Once again, any such programme will be expensive and will take time to deliver results. Plus, any Core World that does choose to launch such a project will be forced to start from the point of current Solarian technology levels, because the Solarian military's arrogant belief in the League's superiority and invulnerability has been so deeply entrenched for so long that NO ONE IN THE LEAGUE (except for Beowulf) had been interested enough in the new military technology developed in the Haven Sector to set up any kind of serious espionage network in Manticore or Haven.

Importantly, and following upon my last point, no technology ever stays secret for long. At some point, the GA's technological wonders will be duplicated somewhere, by non-GA and non-MA/RF navies. So, once again, will our hypothetical Core World opt for the best military technology to withstand the immediate threat, or will its leaders be farsighted enough to realize that it will need a much more advanced navy (technology-wise) in the near future in order to remain independent?

lyonheart wrote:Hi Hanuman,

Sometimes you seem to be arguing both sides here at the same time.

Isn't that what a good debater always do? Plus, I suppose there's a little devil inside me whispering: "Play advocate! Play advocate!"

But seriously, I was actually writing a lengthy post of my own when you wrote this, and planning on writing yet another to answer kzt's second point, which ties in neatly with your argument. So here it is, after quoting your post:

lyonheart wrote:While I think you mean the GA will help out within its limited means, rather than not at all; or to the suffering of its own citizens.

But those citizens aren't suffering now and I suspect that Haven's citizens will soon be doing far better than they ever have in their memory when the SEM's trade and tech is available for the first time in a generation [over 60 years].

True, Manticore has its heavy industry to rebuild, but RFC has posted that they will have a huge chunk up in another year and most in 4-5 years, while we've yet to see any suffering or complaints, and the WHJ and its associated industries of finance and trade are still galaxy leaders as well, so income from foreign sources is still huge by everyone else's standards; remember the SKM's per capita income was around 7-8 times the SL average in WroH as I recall.

Granted the GA population may be under 400 B right now, while the SL, about 2/3 of humanity could have something between 11-13 trillion or around 30-1.

But that 11-13 trillion is not united, does not consider it self to be 'Sollies' in the first place, and a quarter to a third sided with Beowulf despite all the pressure put on by the mandarins.

Those members might add 2-4 trillion to the GA, for a bit better odds.

If only a 100 of those that joined Beowulf in the GA had hyper warships, that might be plenty to provide the patrols needed to prevent EE violations, piracy etc.

So the nominal 90 nodal stations I mentioned could be cut considerably by the wormhole network and the ex-SL member's, before seeking strategic bases and allies among the protectorates.

The active crew size of the SLN was around 22 million, a pittance out of 11+ trillion or a 500,000-1 ratio, if the GA had to provide the same number of crewmen that ratio would initially drop to below 20,000-1, but if it were necessary the current GA could easily bear it, except given its technological superiority the GA doesn't need to triple its crewmen to achieve the same results.

First, its been almost a year since second NT, so even at freighter speeds in hyper that's over a thousand LY radius everywhere from NT, just about everyone has seen the imagery of a SLN TG BC flagship being destroyed EASILY and for the first time ever, a SLN TF SURRENDERED to somebody else, despite still outnumbering them.

I think everyone in the verge knows what navy did it.

2&1/2 month's later, Crandall's fleet of SD's is captured after a third are easily destroyed, again without loss.

Thanks to the WHJ, I think almost everybody has heard about Spindle too by now.

It's been 4-5 month's since Filaretta was obliterated, and I suspect most people, thanks again to the WHJ network [38 days to cross 1680 LY of the explored galaxy] have heard about that now despite OFS attempts at censorship, since news would be just part of what typical freighter crews have to trade.

Personally, I think the RMN's reputation right now, and thus the GA's, with the average verge and protectorate systems, NTM the shells', is rather astronomical at the moment; so I don't see many wanting to provoke the RMN or GA in the first place, permitting smaller picket forces than I previously listed while still deterring EE violations and performing the police role so many expect to be lost.

No one has suggested any kind of economic aid or involvement to lift up the protectorates at this time, which you've implied.

Since the general theme is that simply eliminating the OFS and seizing the transtellars would dramatically improve the economic quality of life on all the protectorates [Maya excepted] to say nothing of the personal liberty, such aid would be in the package the GA would offer after the SLN had been eliminated.

Remember, the SLN ships are basically just targets for the GA, and most if not all of their crews should know that by now.

Once the BF is eradicated, I don't see the FF being dumb enough to fight the GA. For what?

L

hanuman wrote:
SNIPPED 4 SPACE REASONS

Syed, despite Haven's size and the ever-growing size of the Star Empire, they and the rest of the GA's members still comprise only a minor part of human space territory-wise, and a truly miniscule part population-wise. I would be surprised if the entire GA has a population in excess of 500 billion, and that is being generous. Compare that to how many trillions of people in the League and its Protectorates alone, never mind the untold numbers of people living in the Verge.

I agree that the GA can keep control of the entire wormhole network, or if not, then at least most of it, and that it will do so for strategic reasons (denying passage to any ship registered to a hostile star nation, and thereby not only keeping the advantage wrt the comm delay and crippling their enemies' economies, but also to encourage potentially-hostile star nations to either remain neutral or become allied to the GA), without having to weaken its members' home defences too much.

In fact, I think it's probable that the GA will be able to designate special task forces for missions against targets deep within hostile territory, over and above home defence and control of the wormhole network. How much so, I cannot tell you, but it should be possible.

But beyond those three primary mandates? Not a snowball's chance in hell that the GA could possibly take over as a peacekeeping force everywhere the Solarian League is pushed out of or withdraw from.

Okay, first let me clarify my position. I don't think the GA can, or for that matter wants to, take over as an interstellar peacekeeping force once the League disintegrates.

In many ways, you're right. They won't have to, because the stinky stuff won't hit the Core Worlds fan for at least a while after the League's collapse. The Core Worlds will be fine for a while, and so will many of the Shell Worlds, because the only conceivable threat to their security will be local and of the same general level of technology and warmaking capacity as themselves. As I wrote in my previous post to kzt, that situation will change rapidly, but there are so many factors involved that it's near impossible to calculate them all in. Suffice it to say that when the stinky stuff does hit the Core/Shell Worlds fan, it'll be one helluva mess.

There won't be any warlordism in the Core or Shell, because those worlds are simply too stable, with a too long history and well-established societies, economic systems and political structures. Not many of them will experience civil conflict, but they will be suffering from economic recessions for a while. The threat they will face is that some among them, with existing fleets or more advanced technologies, will be tempted to build empires of their own to alleviate their economic woes and in order to divert their citizens attention somewhere else rather than replacing their political leaders.

Where we will see utter chaos, with civil unrest, civil conflict and really bad economic suffering, is in the Protectorates and throughout the Verge. With OFS/FF gone, the Verge and former Protectorates will explode. We will see warlords setting themselves up as would-be conquerors. We will see vicious infighting for political power on many, if not most, planets. Old grievances will lead to outright feuds, with the Gendarmerie and FF no longer around to keep a lid on things. Whatever we might think of the League, OFS or FF, they have managed to keep the peace in the Protectorates and much of the Verge. That will no longer be the case. Old enemies will grab the chance to settle their disputes. That will even happen in the Shell and among some Core Worlds. With FF gone, the Protectorates especially (since it's already the case in the Verge) will become a cesspool of piracy. Pirates will breed like mayflies.

That is exactly the scenario the MAlign has been aiming for all these centuries, and specifically because it's a logical outcome of the League's collapse.

The wormhole network's termini are not spread evenly throughout human space. Some regions are rich with termini, others have none whatsoever. The Core and Shell comprise a large, but definitely not the major, part of human space. As I said, it will be stable for at least a while, except for those old vendettas and maybe some attempts at empire-building. But the Protectorates and Verge - the outer layers of human-inhabited space - comprise a much vaster physical area.

With the haphazard distribution of wormhole termini and the tremendous distances involved, there is simply no way for the GA to keep the peace much beyond the terminus-systems of the wormhole network. They'll manage to do it to some extent, of course, if only to safeguard trade routes for their own merchant marines. But keeping the peace throughout the Protectorate and Verge will be nigh impossible. Not without leaving their own home systems vulnerable to raids and invasion, and that'd be criminally stupid (which none of the GA's leaders are).

Yes, Manticore's and Haven's economies will recover more quickly now, just as those of the Core Worlds are collapsing. There are many reasons for that, but most important is Manticore's control of the wormhole network and the GA's ability to keep the peace and combat piracy within the vicinity (and probably somewhat beyond) of the terminus-systems. That will enable the Manticoran and other GA merchants to resume trade - at least within those safe zones. Plus, merchants are notorious for the risks they are willing to take. Many merchant ships will risk trading with worlds outside the safe zones, and most of them will manage to do so without falling to pirates. Along with internal GA trade, that will go a far way to speeding the recovery of the GA members' economies.

But still, Manticore has all those obligations to alleviate the poverty and to develop local economies in the Talbott Quadrant and her Silesian Protectorate. That's going to take a lot of investment, even with the kind of private-public partnerships we already see happening in the Talbott Quadrant. And Haven has those scores of underdeveloped worlds to uplift.

I'm not saying that their economies won't be able to grow, just that their economic focus will be on their own member worlds for a while, as well as on generating the kind of revenue that will allow them to build up their navies.

lyonheart wrote:No one has suggested any kind of economic aid or involvement to lift up the protectorates at this time, which you've implied.

No one needs to make such a suggestion, because it's a given. It's part of Manticore's original plans for dealing with the League. And besides, should Manticore (or the GA) establish those nodal stations that have been mentioned, do you really think the various GA members' socio-political ethos will allow them NOT to get involved in on-planet peacekeeping efforts (in those many instances where the locals will engage in civil conflict) or economic assistance (given the policies of the now-absent OFS and transstellars)? I don't. But I also don't think they can afford to do so, at least not at this time.

I think the situation is going to get so complicated, in such a short period of time, that it will be really difficult, if not impossible, to calculate all the possible outcomes. There are just too much local variation and too many factors involved.

And that's not even considering the fact that the GA knows who its real enemy is and has to prepare for the day it will be facing that enemy.

For a real-world example of the kind of situation we'll see the GA faced with in the Protectorates and Verge, look at what happened throughout Africa after decolonisation. And here it was but a single continent with just over fifty different countries.

kzt wrote:It's important to realize that, generally speaking, any single core world has the ability to build and man a fleet the size of the RMN. It would hurt a bit more, but they also have a functioning economy, which Manticore doesn't right now.

Right now there is only one system capable of building and matching the RMN in numbers of armed military personnel and hulls, that's Grayson. And even there, Grayson is limited to one world. Manticore has -three- worlds in its system No single system in the SL comes close to being able to match the building capacity and ability of the Manticore system. Manticore's economy is damaged, but it still functions, for one thing, it still has a lot of merchant ships still hanging around, so it can move a lot of cargo. Most SL systems used Manticore hulls to move their cargo, not SL ships as far as I remember. The reach and influence of Manticore merchant hulls is a big reason so many SL officials disliked the Star Kingdom/Empire.

as it is though, Manticore's economy and orbital infrastructure will recover faster and be able to do more than any single or group, of SL systems. Beowolf probably comes the closest to matching the SEM in being able to make the advanced tech the GA has. I doubt any group, large or small of the rest of the SL's systems are capable of matching Manticore's ability to build ships in the next decade. The entire League might be able to outproduce the GA, but what they can build is decidedly inferior to what Manticore and the GA can produce.

kzt wrote:It's important to realize that, generally speaking, any single core world has the ability to build and man a fleet the size of the RMN. It would hurt a bit more, but they also have a functioning economy, which Manticore doesn't right now.

Absolutely true...but do they have the will, do they have the drive, do they have the leadership to 'pay any price, bear any burden" in building a competing fleet?

And just as importantly, can Maticore/GA convince them that they do not have to?

That is why the diplomatic part of this conflict will be just as important as the military--you have to put yourself in a position that you win...but that the losers feel that they themselves have 'won', or at least not lost bad enough that they will work and pay and plan for building a fleet that can match yours...because they do not feel that there is a need.

And that, my friends, is going to be very tricky, given human nature, the inevitable troubles of the SL breakup (as hanuaman has detailed above), and the machinations of the MAlignment.

Interesting times, indeed.

hanuman wrote:And then there's this question: what threat level should that navy be built to withstand? Both wrt numbers AND technology level, I mean. Does that hypothetical Core World choose to counter the local threat level - in other words, does it look at its neighbours and opt to match THEIR numbers and current technology? Or does it go for a more farsighted option, and try for the most advanced technology and as large a navy as its battered economy will allow? And speaking of technology, are its leaders so wedded to the notion of Solarian superiority that they insist on the best SOLARIAN technology for their new navy, or are they open-minded enough to accept that Solarian technology had become dangerously outdated.

And if they do realize that, will they have the resources to jumpstart an intensive R+D programme of their own? Once again, any such programme will be expensive and will take time to deliver results. Plus, any Core World that does choose to launch such a project will be forced to start from the point of current Solarian technology levels, because the Solarian military's arrogant belief in the League's superiority and invulnerability has been so deeply entrenched for so long that NO ONE IN THE LEAGUE (except for Beowulf) had been interested enough in the new military technology developed in the Haven Sector to set up any kind of serious espionage network in Manticore or Haven.

Importantly, and following upon my last point, no technology ever stays secret for long. At some point, the GA's technological wonders will be duplicated somewhere, by non-GA and non-MA/RF navies. So, once again, will our hypothetical Core World opt for the best military technology to withstand the immediate threat, or will its leaders be farsighted enough to realize that it will need a much more advanced navy (technology-wise) in the near future in order to remain independent?

Those Core worlds that find themselves with a sudden need for a bigger and better Navy will not all be starting with SLN tech levels. SLN tech and doctrine should be considered a floor, not a ceiling. We have text ev, that the SLN is not taking maximum advantage of the tech it does have, and that Transtellars (at a min) are doing research. Proactive SDFs (even if they do not have wallers) have R+D budgets, how much they have produced will vary from very little to (rarely) game changers at Authorial discretion.

I believe that SDFs will vary from barely sufficient LACs, to Beowulf numbers of wallers. And the ships themselves could be museum pieces that barely are spaceworthy in some SDFs, to brand new with interesting new toys in those that are putting some effort to be the best.