Houdini and its consequences(CoG spoilers)

i bet at some point mannerheim was to open the unknown verge transit terminii to the public, but if they do this now it will force the mannerheim navy into combat with the alliance?

BrightSoul wrote:Rather than debunking my post why not post some other ideas where our Heroes (tm) might find hints? Come on, are you all just Clerks pointing out the shortcomings of others?

I think Our Heroes have already found as many hints as they are going to get. Zilwicki already documented the unusual trends in deaths. I don't think they are going to get much forensic evidence from any of the non-nuclear accidents--they were carefully staged, the investigators were insiders, and the evidence has either been lost or carefully planted.

Our Heroes don't really need any further evidence of Houdini. It won't help them to know who was spirited away. The only thing that would help them is if they could figure out where they went, but I am certain there is no remaining evidence of that. Even if they can show discrepancies in death tallies, it would be impossible for Our Heroes to prove what actually happened to them. So it doesn't really help much to announce this to the world--it's just another unproven conspiracy theory.

The one thing that would help is if they came across explicit evidence of the Houdini packages leaving Mesa. Most helpful of all would be accidentally getting their hands on Zach McBryde himself. But I don't think there is anything Manticore can really actively do on that front.

BrightSoul wrote:

JohnRoth wrote:
Why should they bother?

The GA has only two objectives here: first, to demonstrate to all and sundry that the MAlign actually exists, and second, to track them down and eliminate them. A few sets of relatives crazed with grief and seeing conspiracies where there obviously aren't any won't matter.

Exposing the MAlign is going to take a lot more work than that. Even Anton Zilwiki said he was chasing shadows when he concluded he'd seen the footprints.

Trying to document who was spirited off in Houdini, versus who was killed to provide cutouts and who was simply collateral damage is going to take a whole lot of work.

We hope they remember to pack a lunch.

First off, this set of relatives ARE people known to Manticore since the guy that outed the alignment was their son.

Second, who said put grieving relatives on HD? I said that looking into the bombs used to cover the alignment's escape might not be cut and dried. How does wreckage discovered that was supposed to have 300 people aboard but forensics can prove there was only the flight crew aboard change the narrative?

The plan for the "Ballroom option" was to hide a lot of disappearances among even more REAL victims of atrocities. Those atrocities killed a lot of random victims, most of whom have relatives who can swear that their loved ones were, in fact, in the vicinity of the nuke that went off.

BrightSoul wrote:Recall that the Mesan Government is supposed to claim thousands of deaths in these bombings. The Nukes will be hard to get any forensic evidence from the wreckage but there are a couple of these accidents that didn't involve a nuke as well and the lists of the Dead won't match up if the wreckage is investigated.

What does the Mesan Government have to do with this? Corrupt as they are, they had nothing to do with the planning or execution. They're just as much victims of the MAlign as everyone else.

It's possible that a thorough analysis of the second "disaster," that is the one that happened over the most inaccessible place on the planet, would fail to turn up a lot of bodies that were supposed to be on the plane (or ship, or whatever). Who's going to do it, and, even more important, who's going to do it that has the credibility for their report to be believed rather than taken as "self-serving Manti propaganda?"

BrightSoul wrote:Rather than debunking my post why not post some other ideas where our Heroes (tm) might find hints? Come on, are you all just Clerks pointing out the shortcomings of others?

I already have said where I think the next major reveal is going to come from. Several times. In multiple threads. It's not going to be from examining the lack of footprints on Mesa.

So have several other people.

One of RFC's better characteristics is that he's not prone to the Deus Ex Machina syndrome. If you can't support the idea by pointing to the hunting rifle hanging over the mantle, the idea probably isn't going to fly.

To put it bluntly, to convince the population of Mesa that they've been screwed over for centuries by a hidden conspiracy that created the entire society as a disposable cover, you're going to have to have better proof than a few people whose kids were doing some kind of secret stuff they couldn't talk about.

Maybe we're just tired of playing games.

Okay, y'all, let's differentiate who needs to know what and who needs to be convinced. The point has been made that convincing the average Solly on the street about Houdini is pushing a heavy load of bricks up a steep hill--really difficult. Shoot, for any Manticorian to convince some Sollies that water is wet is difficult.

Now, we have to play fair with the benevolent MWW. We, the readers, know what happened (mostly) and why with this particular Alignment (soon to be Renaissance) plot. The purpose of Houdini was to cover the disappearance of personnel key enough to move to their "Alpha Site" (to borrow a term from SG-1). The site is most likely (but we don't know) Darius where there is already a world set up and running, for what, 200 years as I recall. A civilization, in fact, complete with a population and a navy.

Now, our side doesn't need to convince the average Solly on the street of Houdini. The Grand Alliance needs to know something happened. Zilwicki has already noticed something was going on when he saw the odd ship traffic before the seccy tower assaults began. He knows (well, strongly suspects) that people were being moved off planet covertly.

But to where is the big question, as someone has already pointed out. Now, Zilwicki is the head spy for Torch. Torch raided a slave depot where one fleeing slave ship blew itself up along with a shuttle load of Torch Marines, after the crew had already taken to its shuttles. The readers know why, but not the Torch Marines. Does the manager of that depot know what was going on? Given how OPSEC aware (need to know / compartmentalized) the Alignment operates, he probably just knows that there were very high priority passengers on those ships that he was to leave alone. Then again, several of the depot personnel know that since they were reprimanded for asking questions about the passengers.

Zilwicki can guess that some of the evacuees from Mesa went through that depot, on two ships, in small groups, once the Marines bring the event to his attention. In a small military like Torch's, the details will probably work their way to him.

Is this enough info to find the destination of the evacuees? I don't think so; somebody else (maybe some more Torch Marines) is going to have to find some more data.

What do you think?

ncwolf wrote:...<snip>
But to where is the big question, as someone has already pointed out. Now, Zilwicki is the head spy for Torch. Torch raided a slave depot where one fleeing slave ship blew itself up along with a shuttle load of Torch Marines, after the crew had already taken to its shuttles. The readers know why, but not the Torch Marines. Does the manager of that depot know what was going on? Given how OPSEC aware (need to know / compartmentalized) the Alignment operates, he probably just knows that there were very high priority passengers on those ships that he was to leave alone. Then again, several of the depot personnel know that since they were reprimanded for asking questions about the passengers.

Zilwicki can guess that some of the evacuees from Mesa went through that depot, on two ships, in small groups, once the Marines bring the event to his attention. In a small military like Torch's, the details will probably work their way to him.

Is this enough info to find the destination of the evacuees? I don't think so; somebody else (maybe some more Torch Marines) is going to have to find some more data.

What do you think?

Nice analysis. Two nitpics.

1) There is no textev/action to indicate that the staff of Balcescu Station knew a darned thing of any "special passengers" or took any notice of them at all. At this stage of there journey, 'no notice' would have been the ideal objective of OPSEC, after all. Just 3 people transferring from one near-tramp starship on the crappy side of the station to another, even more 'whiffy' starship, with a couple of extra passage cabins in addition to the 'money holds', on the crappy side of the station. If noticed at all, the station staff attitude was, "Well, that's their business - they must be down on luck, or headed off to some real shithole of a planet".

2) Ruth. The incident may come around to Torch Intelligence, because we have textev that the Torch naval component commander is bothered by the oddity that his quarry, and the slaves aboard, was blown unnecessarily, and sucicidally. But if it does, it won't be Anton who notes and starts digging into it. It will be Ruth. Left field oddities are even more her thing than Anton's, and it would be a good opportunity for the author to demonstrate her maturing intuition/skill as an analyst.

As a final comment, I think that, dramatically/literarily (not necessarily logically or probabilistically), the break in further tracing outline of Houdini and the plans of the MAlign will come from the Prince Sundjata making port-of-call at Parmley Station. This will, of course, lead to the BSC interacting her supernumerary passengers. I think that is one of the reasons for the entire detailed presentation of the first slaver boarding action at Parmley - to show us what happens when a slaver gets sucked in at Parmaley.

Hell, its even possible that the BSC will NOT note anything extra-special about McBryde and Weiss, except that they chose their tramp freighter passage very poorly, and that they are NOT slavers or slaves themselves. They eventually release them to knock about Parmley - Torch - Erewhon - Maya - BEOWULF(!) space on their own, without any good directions, connections or resources to move them on toward their Houdini destination - which they don't know. (Wouldn't THAT make an interesting sub-story.)

In any case, that pair, I think, is eventually realized/adopted/converted/co-op'd and become a key pixel in the GA intel picture of the Malign.

dreamrider

dreamrider wrote:Nice analysis.

Thanks.

Two nitpics.

1) There is no textev/action to indicate that the staff of Balcescu Station knew a darned thing of any "special passengers" or took any notice of them at all. At this stage of there journey, 'no notice' would have been the ideal objective of OPSEC, after all. Just 3 people transferring from one near-tramp starship on the crappy side of the station to another, even more 'whiffy' starship, with a couple of extra passage cabins in addition to the 'money holds', on the crappy side of the station. ....

I looked but failed to find the passage that talks about how quick the reprimand was given to one of the traffic controllers (Csillic?) (edit, sic, Csilla), and the station manager was frightened for himself.

EDIT: Found it. See pages 220-221 in CoG for Ferenc Csilla's thoughts on the heavy traffic through the depot of late, all from Mesa, and her discussion with a co-worker: "Are you trying to get into trouble?" (italics per text), etc. See p. 222 for station manager's concerns.

2) Ruth. The incident may come around to Torch Intelligence, because we have textev that the Torch naval component commander is bothered by the oddity that his quarry, and the slaves aboard, was blown unnecessarily, and sucicidally. But if it does, it won't be Anton who notes and starts digging into it. It will be Ruth. Left field oddities are even more her thing than Anton's, and it would be a good opportunity for the author to demonstrate her maturing intuition/skill as an analyst.

.

Okay, I can go along with that.

As a final comment, I think that, dramatically/literarily (not necessarily logically or probabilistically), the break in further tracing outline of Houdini and the plans of the MAlign will come from the Prince Sundjata making port-of-call at Parmley Station. This will, of course, lead to the BSC interacting her supernumerary passengers. I think that is one of the reasons for the entire detailed presentation of the first slaver boarding action at Parmley - to show us what happens when a slaver gets sucked in at Parmaley.

Hell, its even possible that the BSC will NOT note anything extra-special about McBryde and Weiss, except that they chose their tramp freighter passage very poorly, and that they are NOT slavers or slaves themselves. They eventually release them to knock about Parmley - Torch - Erewhon - Maya - BEOWULF(!) space on their own, without any good directions, connections or resources to move them on toward their Houdini destination - which they don't know. (Wouldn't THAT make an interesting sub-story.)

In any case, that pair, I think, is eventually realized/adopted/converted/co-op'd and become a key pixel in the GA intel picture of the Malign.

dreamrider

Well, on the Parmley Station -- Princess Sundjata tie in, that is what Chekov's gun would have. The logic would depend on the final destination and how convoluted the routing had been planned. It would keep things simpler for the reader, which would be appreciated at this point.

ncwolf wrote:But to where is the big question, as someone has already pointed out. Now, Zilwicki is the head spy for Torch. Torch raided a slave depot where one fleeing slave ship blew itself up along with a shuttle load of Torch Marines, after the crew had already taken to its shuttles. The readers know why, but not the Torch Marines. Does the manager of that depot know what was going on? Given how OPSEC aware (need to know / compartmentalized) the Alignment operates, he probably just knows that there were very high priority passengers on those ships that he was to leave alone. Then again, several of the depot personnel know that since they were reprimanded for asking questions about the passengers.

Zilwicki can guess that some of the evacuees from Mesa went through that depot, on two ships, in small groups, once the Marines bring the event to his attention. In a small military like Torch's, the details will probably work their way to him.

Is this enough info to find the destination of the evacuees? I don't think so; somebody else (maybe some more Torch Marines) is going to have to find some more data.

What do you think?

I'd point out that that vignette ended with Torch's troops in control of the Balcescu station. It's not impossible that at least one more Houdini transfer is going to be routed through the station later and "off-screen".

So another potential Chekov's gun (other than Princess Sundjata attempting to use Parmley Station) would be for the next book reveal that, after the events you mentioned the Torch forces there were able to capture alive the majority of the crew of the a subsequent Houdini run (quite possibly to include the assets being relocated).

Either of those follow-ups would make for a much better lead on the MAlign that the slim clues the Torch forces there had to date "on-screen".

Jonathan_S wrote:

ncwolf wrote:But to where is the big question, as someone has already pointed out. Now, Zilwicki is the head spy for Torch. Torch raided a slave depot where one fleeing slave ship blew itself up along with a shuttle load of Torch Marines, after the crew had already taken to its shuttles. The readers know why, but not the Torch Marines. Does the manager of that depot know what was going on? Given how OPSEC aware (need to know / compartmentalized) the Alignment operates, he probably just knows that there were very high priority passengers on those ships that he was to leave alone. Then again, several of the depot personnel know that since they were reprimanded for asking questions about the passengers.

Zilwicki can guess that some of the evacuees from Mesa went through that depot, on two ships, in small groups, once the Marines bring the event to his attention. In a small military like Torch's, the details will probably work their way to him.

Is this enough info to find the destination of the evacuees? I don't think so; somebody else (maybe some more Torch Marines) is going to have to find some more data.

What do you think?

I'd point out that that vignette ended with Torch's troops in control of the Balcescu station. It's not impossible that at least one more Houdini transfer is going to be routed through the station later and "off-screen".

So another potential Chekov's gun (other than Princess Sundjata attempting to use Parmley Station) would be for the next book reveal that, after the events you mentioned the Torch forces there were able to capture alive the majority of the crew of the a subsequent Houdini run (quite possibly to include the assets being relocated).

Either of those follow-ups would make for a much better lead on the MAlign that the slim clues the Torch forces there had to date "on-screen".

So, you're thinking that the Torch forces are hanging on to the station, at least temporarily, and use it as a mousetrap? Sounds good to me.

dreamrider wrote:...<big snip>
As a final comment, I think that, dramatically/literarily (not necessarily logically or probabilistically), the break in further tracing outline of Houdini and the plans of the MAlign will come from the Prince Sundjata making port-of-call at Parmley Station. This will, of course, lead to the BSC interacting her supernumerary passengers. I think that is one of the reasons for the entire detailed presentation of the first slaver boarding action at Parmley - to show us what happens when a slaver gets sucked in at Parmaley.

And with their Gaul keeper so conveniently dead, too.
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Them chickens are up to summat. They're organized, I tell ya.